Start
1. QB Philip Rivers, SD:
Rivers has an ideal matchup ahead of him, as the Chargers host the 0-9 Raiders. After a horrid performance with 3 interceptions and 1 lost fumble against the Dolphins, Rivers will look to bounce back against Oakland's mediocre pass defense (ranked 18th giving up 241.6 passing yards per contest). The Chargers will most likely look to throw early on as they try to impose their will on Oakland. Expect Rivers to throw for at least 2 or 3 touchdowns, and possibly break 300 yards through the air as well. Rivers should be used as a top 10 QB1 for this week.
2. WR Mike Evans, TB:
Mike Evans has been playing very well as of late, going for14-249-3 during his last two games combined and will look to keep the ball rolling against the Redskins for Week 11. The rookie wideout has really come into his own and has proven his ability to make big plays for the lackluster Buccaneers offense. Against a solid Redskins defense (ranking 7th in allowing 222.9 passing yards per game), it may be tough for him to get open, but he should be able to make the most out of his limited opportunities. Evans is a decent fantasy football start for Sunday's contest and can comfortably be utilized as a WR2.
Sit
1. WR Michael Floyd, ARI:
Floyd should be avoided in all fantasy leagues this week. The Cardinals will be hosting the number one defense on Sunday, as the Lions are first in the league allowing only 283.4 total yards per game (and 3rd in allowing 212.1 passing yards game). Floyd will also be working with QB Drew Stanton since Carson Palmer went down with a torn ACL, and that does not bode well for his performance ceiling. Expect Drew Stanton to struggle heavily with this Lions defense, and Floyd to be nothing better than a weak WR4 for Sunday.
2. RB Bobby Rainey, TB:
Tampa Bay halfback Bobby Rainey's fantasy value is on the decline with Charles Sims starting to play now, and he is no longer a safe play in standard fantasy formats. Last week, Rainey only managed to pick up 14 rushing yards off 6 carries, and he may have opened a greater window of opportunity for the rookie Sims. They will most likely split carries for Week 11, not allowing Rainey to get too much of a rhythm going at Washington. Sims is the better running back for the Bucs, and as a result, Rainey should no longer be seen as a relevant fantasy option.
For the latest fantasy sit start advice, stay tuned to ASL!
WR Fantasy Football News -
Josh Gordon, the number one scoring fantasy WR in 2013, is primed to make his 2014 debut during Week 12 against the Falcons. Surprisingly, Gordon is still not owned in 100% of fantasy leagues, and he absolutely needs to be. In 2013, Gordon posted the tenth most receiving yards in a single season in NFL history in only 14 games. In WR news, Gordon missed the first two games of 2013 due to another suspension and put up historic numbers with four different quarterbacks throughout the season.
It's a bit of a stretch to predict the same type of production for Gordon this season after sitting out nearly three quarters of the year, but that's a risk every fantasy owner fortunate enough to own Gordon needs to take. Gordon put up monster numbers last year with several no-name quarterbacks and will instantly morph into the number one option for a Browns team that is surprisingly in first place 10 weeks into the season.
Some owners may want to see what type of numbers Gordon produces in his first game of the season before plugging him into their lineup, but it's hard to imagine that many owners couldn't use Gordon as a high-end WR2 or Flex play in Week 12.
There's a lot of speculation going around about what Gordon can accomplish once he returns to the playing field this season, but I've got a strong feeling I'll be hearing a lot of buzz about how "Josh Gordon won me my fantasy league this year" when it's all said and done.
Look for Josh Gordon to put up top 10 fantasy WR numbers in Week 12 and for the remainder of the season which will make him a low-end WR1 and high-end WR2 starting in Week 12. The biggest concern for Gordon owners might be the fact that the Browns will likely be winning many of their remaining games and won't have to air it out on every down like they have in previous years when they had no running game.
Stay tuned to ASL for the best WR fantasy news.
With the fantasy football playoffs inching ever closer, it's time to take a look at four impact players who suffered severe setbacks during Week 10 and made NFL player news.
Ben Roethlisberger
Although the New York Jets have a defense that is far superior to their offense, they are a mess of a team that had one win going into Sunday. Factor that in with the fact that Big Ben had racked up 12 TD’s in the last two weeks and fantasy owners thought they had a sure thing going. Well, welcome to the NFL. On Sunday, Ben Roethlisberger was all over the place and while he managed at least one touchdown pass, he also had two interceptions. Oh, and the Steelers LOST to the Jets.
It was ugly, but Roethlisberger most likely had a bad week and will rebound going forward.
Carson Palmer
Success and optimism are ever fleeting at the professional level. The Arizona Cardinals sit at 8-1, with the best record in the NFL. However, Palmer, re-energized after a bizarre stint in Oakland, is out for the year with a torn ACL. The injury occurred early in the fourth quarter, and although he has been steady while healthy this season, Sunday’s game against the Rams produced one of Palmer’s weakest efforts of the year. No touchdowns, one pick, and three sacks. In fact, the Cardinals were losing when Palmer went down only to rally for a 17 point victory.
But, the biggest reason for that victory was the defense. Drew Stanton will be inserted as Arizona’s QB for the remainder of the campaign, and you’d have to be pretty desperate to use him on a fantasy roster.
Joe Flacco
Joe Flacco is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you’re going to get.
Although the Ravens beat the Titans 21-7 on Sunday, Flacco didn’t exactly light up the stat sheet. He didn’t throw an interception, but only tossed one TD, and totaled a measly 169 yards through the air. No turnovers is an admirable accomplishment, but with the amount of money Flacco is making and the passing stats elite quarterbacks are putting up, 169 yards and 1 TD is not acceptable for those owners who count on him.
Flacco still ranks tied for 10th in touchdown passes, but he’s always liable to throw up a dud like Sunday’s.
Matt Forte
Somebody tell the Bears they were supposed to play on Sunday night, because the Packers were the only team that showed up. Instead of trying to control the clock, run the ball and keep Aaron Rodgers off of the field, the Bears coaching staff did the EXACT OPPOSITE. They abandoned the run at the beginning of the game and got humiliated on national television.
The Bad News Bears took to the air and gave Chicago a black eye that they will be talking about for years. Forte is one of the best backs in the league, yet he was a forgotten man in the first half finishing with 8 points in standard scoring, when owners needed a 20-point or more performance from a typical NFL fantasy stud.
Forte will keep grinding, but he should be monitored because the Bears coaching staff is a complete train wreck and it may get uglier before it sorts itself out.
- RC Fischer - Fantasy Football Metrics
Fantasy Waiver Wire Pickups -
DE Robert Ayers, New York Giants
Ayers was a mostly (Fantasy) mediocre DE for the past five years in the NFL for the Denver Broncos, but he appears to have found new life with the New York Giants. Every time I re-watch the Giants games, of late, it seems like every other play Ayers is rushing the quarterback like he is shot out of a cannon. He looks scary-good at times as a pass rusher. He's also playing the run better than I expected—he looks totally engaged and healthy…and very quick. Playing on the other side from Jason Pierre-Paul is a good thing for him.
He has a sack in each of the last two games with several QB hits and QB hurries. In the next three weeks, the Giants have games with the 49ers and Jaguars, two of the most opportune quarterbacks to sack in recent weeks. If your scoring system is sack friendly, then Ayers might ring up one or two of them per game during the next couple of weeks, and could prove to be one of the better fantasy pickups.
LB Kevin Pierre-Louis, Seattle
Pierre-Louis is an IDP rookie just starting to get playing time. In our 2014 NFL draft scouting, we thought Pierre-Louis was one of the best linebacker prospects entering the NFL and was a first round worthy player (was drafted 4th-round). He had a career high five tackles this week against NYG. I saw lining up as an ILB, OLB, and even DE against the Giants this past week…which he can play all three positions—he’s a special talent.
In 2013, he registered 108 tackles for Boston College. He is a 4.45+ runner with sensational agility. Why he wasn’t a 1st or 2nd-round pick, I have no idea. There are no issues off the field that we have uncovered.
He’s likely not ready for consistent IDP just yet, but he is one to keep an eye on in a deeper roster dynasty league as he plays more snaps. Eventually, we feel he is going to make a huge IDP impact, but it might be more 2015.
LB Kyle Van Noy, Detroit
IDP rookie Kyle Van Noy is the Lions second round draft pick who missed the first eight games of the season due to injury, but he’s back now. He made his debut in Week 10, and had two tackles in just a handful of snaps. He is a talent, as a tackler and pass rusher (a la rookie IDP Anthony Barr) and should be playing a lot more snaps ahead. He’s one to watch, and one you might have slight concerns about if you are a DeAndre Levy owner. Not that Levy is going to get bumped by Van Noy, just that he could have some of his numbers cut into in 2014…and beyond.
– R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM
Fantasy Waiver Wire Pickups -
1. RB C.J. Anderson, DEN:
Rookie C.J. Anderson's breakout game now makes the Broncos backfield situation much more difficult to predict. Anderson had a very impressive performance in Week 10 picking up 163 total yards and 1 receiving touchdown on 17 touches. With Ronnie Hillman listed as day-to-day, Anderson may only have to compete with Montee Ball for touches. Ball is still recovering from injury, so Anderson could end up being the lead back by default. If Anderson can string together another solid showing, he could potentially retain the starting job. The rookie tailback has an advantageous matchup ahead of him as he and the Broncos take on an up and down Rams defense, which is 25th in the league allowing 124.2 rushing yards per game. Anderson is one of the best fantasy pickups in all formats as a possible RB2 with high upside and value in keeper leagues.
2. TE Mychal Rivera, OAK:
After being virtually non-existent for the first 7 weeks of the season, second-year tight end Mychal Rivera has put together 3 straight solid performances (a combined total of 21 catches, 185 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns). A week ago, reports stated that the Raiders considered Rivera a key piece of their offense, as QB Derek Carr continued to get him involved against the Broncos in Week 10. Rivera has shown his ability to put up decent numbers, and to find his way into the end zone, but his production ceiling is limited by the lackluster Raiders offense. Rivera can be added as a touchdown-dependant low-end TE1 in standard fantasy formats.
3. QB Mark Sanchez, PHI:
Mark Sanchez showed Monday night that given the right opportunity, he can lead an offense to victory. In his first start in nearly 2 years, Sanchez and the Eagles destroyed the Panthers 45-21. The former New York Jets QB had 20 completions for 332 yards, adding 2 touchdowns and 0 turnovers in the one-sided affair. He and wide receiver Jordan Matthews connected for both scores, as they were already very comfortable, after building rapport in the second unit. Look for them to continue to play well together, and for Sanchez to begin to utilize the rest of his weapons (Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, Brent Celek, etc.) as they get more time on the field in coming weeks. Sanchez should be added in all formats, as he is already a QB2 with QB1 potential.
4. RB Terrance West, CLE:
It looks as though Terrance West has regained control over the Browns backfield, and in turn could be worth a look in most fantasy leagues. To say that he carried the bulk of the workload is an understatement. He received 26 carries in Cleveland's Week 10 win over the Bengals. West turned those 26 carries into 94 rushing yards and a score, as Cincinnati had no answer for him. West and the Browns will take on an easy opponent in the Texans defense, that ranks 21st in allowing 117.3 rushing yards per contest. Terrance West is worth an add as he can be used as a high-end RB2 this week and a solid RB2 going forward.
- RC Fischer - Fantasy Football Metrics
I’m guessing Carson Palmer is done for 2014, and you may or may not know…but I believe Drew Stanton is better than Carson Palmer, watching/scouting their preseason and regular season work. I’ll use him as a QB2 for BYE week/injury emergency needs. I’d also rather have Stanton than Mark Sanchez for FF-purposes.
— The Tampa Bay backfield is going beyond MAT-BACK (menage’ a trois backfield)…they’re headed into whatever clever thing I might think of for four RBs working in a stew of FF-confusion. I still Doug Martin is their main guy, but that will be mostly meaningless because the team is so embarrassingly bad. I suspect the whole Charles Sims hysteria will get a big time look the next few weeks…a hunch that the team tries to give proof for all the praise they’ve heaped his way. I don’t see it. Please, see your College Football Metrics scouting report for more info on why Sims is not likely a future star. Mike James is even getting specific situation touches (and has been successful as one of the better NFL fantasy sleepers). Here is a list of some trends in the NFL fantasy world.
— I know we all hate Torrey Smith, but he has 6 TDs in the last 7 games. Steve Smith has one TD in his last six games.
Best Fantasy Football Keepers -
— Colin Kaepernick is fading fast, and (surprisingly) the media is talking up that he may not be ‘the guy’ for the 49ers. His numbers are getting weaker and weaker each week. I wonder when Harbaugh leaves if this will be some serious QB chaos in 2015+.
— Charles Clay the past two weeks: 6.0 rec. for 55.0 yards and 0.5 TDs on 8.5 targets per game. He’s bumped back up to top-12 useful all the sudden.
— Jarvis Landry is right on the edge of being called ‘Ryan Tannehill’s favorite WR‘. Season high 7 catches/10 targets this week.
— Bryce Brown may have started the re-arrival process: 6 catches for 52 yards (and one goal-ine fumble) this week…and a very purposed attempt to get him the ball in the passing game. He also had 7 carries. This puts a ding in Fred Jackson’s PPR production. Spiller-FJax now becomes FJax-Bryce…and it will be tough figuring out how they will be used. Bryce was the #1 guy in this game once he started to pop…and it was the end of Anthony Dixon. FJax is always going to get work, but Brown can be so special…he might take a bigger bite than many expect.
— Cincy IDP LB Emmanuel Lamur in two full starts (with V. Burfict out): 9.5 tackles per game.
— If you didn’t already, you missed your ‘trade Hillman high’ window. It’s over. Montee Ball will be back this week, and who knows who will get carries one drive to the next, but it won’t be anywhere near enough for Hillman to matter for FF.
— Take away the one game IDP LB Danny Trevathan started, and IDP LB Brandon Marshall has averaged 9.1 tackles per game. He has 10 or more total tackles in two of his last three games.
— Mychal Rivera’s last three games: 7.0 rec. for 61.7 yards and 1.0 TDs on 9.3 targets per game…making him one of the top TEs in Fantasy Football all the sudden. He has been one of the best fantasy sleeper picks all season and is really starting to shine.
– This was the best possible WR-TE-RB group + best Head Coach…i.e best situation Jay Cutler could ever be in for his career, and he has butchered it (like all his other opportunities).
The only reason anyone would care about WR Brandon Marshall is because of Cutler, but this all appears dead. How exactly does Cutler turn this around to suddenly be good…when he never really has been, but for a flash earlier this year. As Cutler fades, so does Marshall to a 2nd or 3rd-tier WR. This could be the last season for Cutler in Chicago…he might even get the hook this season, but Chicago has no other viable QB of the future. This is going to be ugly considering $19M still due to Cutler, and no QB on the horizon right now.
The Bears management sold their soul to Cutler…and heads should roll for it. The football media has more angst for Andy Dalton and Alex Smith…but at least they get their teams to the playoffs.
– R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM
TE Fantasy Football News -
Martellus Bennett – Questionable (Night Game)
Martellus Bennett is no lock to play Sunday night against the Green Bay Packers and that is BAD NEWS for fantasy TE owners.
Bennett popped on Thursday’s injury report with sore ribs and has been practicing lightly ever since. To make matters worse, ESPN reports that the Bears have activated backup tight end Blake Anned off of the practice squad.
Did the Bears activate Anned as a precaution or did they do it because they know they are holding Bennett out of the game?
Bennett says he’s going to play, but that’s no guarantee that he will be active in tonight’s game. The Bears have been tight-lipped on Bennett’s playing status on Sunday morning, so fantasy football TE owners have an uncomfortable choice to make.
Owners can either pull the plug on Bennett for Week 10 and stick in a replacement or they can roll the dice, cross their fingers and hope that Bennett can take the field.
Sit
1. QB Eli Manning, NYG:
The Seattle Seahawks do not have the same rugged defense they had a year ago, but the team still allows only 221.9 yards per game through the air (ranking 6th in the category). This spells trouble for quarterback Eli Manning and his mediocre receiving corps who travel to Seattle for a Week 10 showdown. Manning is coming off a performance that looked much better on paper than it did in reality. He struggled to get anything going until garbage time came around, but finished with a line of 27 completions for 359 yards and 2 touchdowns. His wide receivers didn't help much, as Preston Parker had 3 drops and Reuben Randle dropped an important one on third-down. The combination of poor wideout production and one of the most hostile environments in the NFL makes Manning an ill-advised play for Week 10.
2. RB Lamar Miller, MIA:
Lamar Miller is listed as questionable for Sunday's road game against the Detroit. The Lions rush defense has been superb, ranking second in the league surrendering just 74 rushing yards per game. Miller is dealing with a sprained joint in his shoulder, but it appears as though he will be able to suit up for Sunday. Miller is playing well as of late, finding the end zone 5 times in his last 5 contests, but expect him to struggle heavily against the athletic Lions defense. Consider Lamar Miller a weak RB3 at best and find an alternative if possible.
3. WR Sammy Watkins, BUF:
Watkins is dealing with a lingering groin injury that could definitely keep him out of Sunday's matchup with the Chiefs. He hasn't been able to practice yet, so it seems more and more likely that they will hold him out. If by some chance he can suit up, he has a very tough opponent to deal with. Kansas City ranks first in allowing 199.4 passing yards per game and will key in on Watkins if he takes the field. The rest of Buffalo's targets are less than impressive (Robert Woods, Mike Williams, Scott Chandler), which will almost guarantee double coverage in the rookie's direction. Consider Watkins a risky WR3 even if he can play, but he's more than likely to sit this one out.
Start
1. WR Calvin Johnson, DET:
Megatron is ready to come back for Week 11, as Detroit's bye week allowed him to fully recuperate from multiple injuries (knee, ankle). Calvin Johnson has not played since leaving early during Week 5 and has not had a monster game since Week 1 (7-164-2). Johnson and his fantasy owners are hoping this will finally be his coming out party even though it's against a very impressive Dolphins defense. The veteran wideout will square off against a stout Miami defense that allows 201.1 passing yards per contest. However, couple his ability with the emergence of fellow receiver Golden Tate and the Miami defense could be in for a long day. Consider Megatron a top 10 wide receiver fantasy football start this week.
2. WR Martavis Bryant, PIT:
Martavis Bryant has been spectacular in only 3 weeks of play, catching 10 passes for 167 yards and 5 touchdowns. He has most certainly benefited from Big Ben's magnificent play as of late, but he may have secured a pivotal role in the passing game. The 6'4" rookie from Clemson has proved to be a solid target and is close to unseating Markus Wheaton as the wide receiver to start opposite Antonio Brown. Bryant's value is dependent upon his ability to get into the end zone, and the Jets defense should allow him to do just that. The New York Jets are 31st in the league in allowing 28 points per game. Expect Bryant to find the end zone and use him as a WR2 with upside for Sunday.
3. RB Ronnie Hillman, DEN:
Even with the possible return of Montee Ball, Hillman's workload will not diminish, as he has earned the starting spot in Denver's backfield. Hillman has been stellar as of late, rushing for 299 yards and 3 touchdowns (plus 1 receiving TD) in Denver's last 4 contests. The Broncos match up with the Raiders which should make it very easy for Hillman to maintain his 4.3 yards per carry, as the Raiders rank 27th in giving up 132.5 rushing yards per game. The Broncos will likely blowout the Raiders very early, causing them to run it out for the rest of the game. Consider Hillman a solid RB2 with upside for Week 10.
Stay tuned to ASL for the best fantasy sit start guidance.
Fantasy Injury Updates: After missing the last seven weeks with a knee injury, Ryan Mathews returned to practice this week and is fully expected to return to the Chargers starting lineup after the team's much-needed Week 10 Bye. Branden Oliver did a bang up job filling in for Mathews at first, but his production has fallen off dramatically.
The Chargers desperately need Mathews back in their lineup and he should provide both fantasy owners and the Chargers offense with a much needed spark as soon as he returns to the field.
Mathews has always been able to produce for fantasy owners when he's healthy, but that rarely seems to be the case as he is almost always a member of the NFL injury updates list on a weekly basis. When Mathews is actually on the field, he can punch it in from the goal-line and catch passes out of the backfield.
With Danny Woodhead out for the year, Mathews should get the majority of work out of the backfield. Fantasy owners have already started to notice that Mathews will be returning soon as he's owned in more than 50% of ESPN leagues and 71% of Yahoo leagues.
Mathews needs to be owned in all fantasy formats and will provide a big boost for fantasy owners who are battling through bye week and injury issues at the running back position. If Mathews can stay on the field and off of the sidelines, he should be able to carry the Chargers and fantasy owners into the playoffs as he's a low-end RB2 and high-end Flex play when healthy. Stay tuned to Fantasy Focus for the latest injury updates!
RB Fantasy Football News
LeSean McCoy and Jerick McKinnon fantasy RB owners got demolished during Week 9 thanks to the fantasy vultures that are not able to do anything except score touchdowns. McCoy posted an impressive stat line against the Texans gaining 123 all-purpose yards, but is was backup running back Chris Polk who scored the touchdown. Even worse was the fate of McKinnon owners who watched the rookie get them into the red zone 3 times only to have the lead-footed Matt Asiata vulture three scores while gaining a whopping total of 26 yards.
For the first month of the season, it looked as if Asiata would be able to replace a percentage of the production that Adrian Peterson (constantly in RB news) was able to deliver. Certainly not as an RB1, but perhaps a serviceable flex option. However, during his last three games leading up to Sunday, Asiata rushed for a total of 20 yards, even going backwards in one contest to the tune of a NEGATIVE 5 stat line.
Enter McKinnon, a more promising talent to shoulder the ball-carrying load. While Asiata was stuck in the mud, McKinnon put up games of 40, 103, and 83 yards, and is averaging 5 yards per carry on the season. On Sunday, he put up a respectable 54 yards rushing and 14 yards receiving. The problem is that McKinnon would have to bust off a huge run to get into the endzone because the coaching staff turns Asiata once they are inside the 20.
The biggest issue in discerning fantasy value for either player is that Asiata has scored his six touchdowns in only two games. If you guess wrong and give him a start when he fails to hit pay dirt, then you’ve crippled your roster for that given week. McKinnon could be a potential flex, but he may only give you 5 or 6 points, because he is NOT given a chance to finish the drives he helps move down the field.
In this space last week, we discussed the conundrum of LeSean McCoy: great player, not so great season. Well, this week against the Texans, Philadelphia needed every bit of McCoy’s 117 rushing yards in light of Nick Foles going down with a broken collarbone. But, Shady didn’t score. Again!
At the 4:04 mark of the third quarter, and the game still in the balance, the Eagles got the ball at their own 30 yard line. Shady immediately ripped off runs of 14 and 26 yards. With the Houston defense on their heels, Chris Polk came in and finished the job, scoring on a run from eight yards out two plays later. This was a crushing sequence for those who stuck to their guns and started McCoy. He does Shady McCoy football moves we’ve seen time and time again, takes a breather on the sideline, and watches someone steal his touchdown away.
The game, as a whole entity, was encouraging. And, with Foles out for an indefinite amount of time, the Eagles will need McCoy to have consistent, hundred yard games. However, until he starts finding the end zone more often, Shady is still a flex option. It’s unfortunate, but true.
For the best RB fantasy news, stay tuned to ASL's fantasy blog!
