- Tim Haberin - Fantasy Focus
Clay Buchholz ended his Spring Training on a positive note, holding the Twins scoreless over four innings of work. The Red Sox righty struck out four in the outing but also appeared to lack some sharpness, giving up six hits and walking one. The performance was representative of Buchholz's spring as a whole, one in which he looked much better than he did in a dismal 2014 though not quite flashing the form he reached earlier in his career.
Last year was one to forget for Buchholz; in 28 starts he put up a 5.34 ERA, managing an 8-11 record on a Boston squad that finished at the bottom of the AL East. The Sox expect to fare better this season after adding Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval over the winter, and Buchholz hopes to reap some benefit backed by that improved lineup. Advanced statistics also suggest that he wasn't quite as bad as his 2014 numbers show. His 4.01 FIP was significantly lower than his ERA, meaning some better luck and supporting defense could make a big difference in this year's results. Buchholz's case would also be helped by last season's .321 BABIP and 62% strand rate returning to league-average levels.
Despite some reasons for optimism, it remains difficult to feel truly bullish about Buchholz's prospects. He's been inconsistent throughout his career, so while you shouldn't count on a repeat of 2014, neither should you bank on the 12-1 record and 1.74 ERA of the season prior. Injuries have been a concern as well: Buchholz's sterling 2013 was shortened by a neck strain, and he underwent knee surgery at the end of last September. It's unclear how much you can reasonably expect him to rebound and whether he can be relied upon to make it though a full season as he turns 31 this year.
If you're inclined to take a gamble on Buchholz, look to pick him in the last round of your draft. However, you would probably be better served by waiting to see how he does in his first few regular season starts before deciding if he can contribute to your 2015 MLB fantasy team.
- Greg Pokriki - Fantasy Focus
The value of spring training differs from player to player. For young players, their performance in spring often heavily determines their fate. However, many veterans use spring training as a time to shed rust. That process isn’t always pretty, but it’s exactly that: A process. More often than not, veteran pitchers can turn their game around in time for Opening Day and are primed for the season.
Fantasy owners are hoping that David Price can do just that as opening day draws ever closer. The Detroit Tigers ace has traditionally struggled during the spring, but somehow always manages to turn it once the games begin to count.
This past Tuesday, Price allowed seven runs in six innings of work. However, he was perfect through the first three innings. This paradox should probably be chalked up to spring rust. A poor back half to a spring start should not heavily influence Price’s draft stock for the 2015 fantasy baseball season.
Overall, Price is an ace and should be treated as such. He has turned in seven consecutive seasons with an ERA+ over 100, topping out at 150 in 2012. He’s also a workhorse, logging back-to-back 34 start seasons. That type of high production coupled with a huge workload is a bounty for any fantasy owner.
For some reason, it appears that Price has slipped under the radar since joining the Tigers. Maybe it’s because he’s no longer the sole standout like his days in Tampa. And maybe the popularity will reignite now that Max Scherzer has fled to Washington. Either way, he certainly deserves your full attention on fantasy draft day when his name hits the board.
- Tim Haberin - Fantasy Focus
1. Aroldis Chapman - Cincinnati Reds
Chapman's flamethrower of an arm has made him one the game's finest closers, and 2015 should once again see him top the list. He notched 38, 38, and 36 saves in the previous three seasons, respectively. Chapman's fantasy value, of course, comes not just in the consistent stream of saves he provides but also in the astounding rate at which he strikes out opposing hitters. Last year's ethereal 17.7 K/9 was best among relievers by a wide margin, and at 27 years of age there's little reason to think his 100-mph fastball will be any less relentless this season. Drafting closers is always tricky business, but you can select Chapman with confidence in the fifth round and onwards.
2. Craig Kimbrel - Atlanta Braves
Kimbrel shares much in common with Chapman: he's young, throws very hard, and has already proven his ability to thrive in the closer's role. He's led the National League in saves in all but his debut season, and the 50 saves he secured in 2013 topped both leagues. With the Braves looking weaker this year the save opportunities might not be as abundant, but Kimbrel will still get plenty of work and rack up strikeouts (95 Ks in 62.1 IP in 2014). He should not be left on the draft board much longer than Chapman.
3. Greg Holland - Kansas City Royals
Since his first full season as the Royals closer in 2013, Holland has rapidly ascended into the upper echelon of relievers. He saved 47 and 46 games in the past two seasons and was a major component of Kansas City's improbable run to the World Series. In his tenure he's maintained a WHIP under 1.00 and at least a 13.0 K/9 rate. The Royals generated 65 save opportunities in 2014, the sixth-most in MLB, and Holland will likely continue to receive steady work in the new campaign. As with the previous two pitchers on this list, you can justify picking Holland in the 5th round or later of a 12-team draft.
4. Mark Melancon - Pittsburgh Pirates
Melancon has been a quiet revelation the last two years working out of the Pirates bullpen, flourishing in multiple roles. He took the closing reins from a struggling Jason Grilli in June of last season and didn't look back, earning 33 saves while posting a .873 WHIP and a strikeout per inning. Pittsburgh's 72 total save opportunities were tied for the most in baseball in 2014, and their closer should remain busy this year finishing games for what hopes to be a very competitive team. Target Melancon in round 7 or later.
Sleeper: Brad Boxberger - Tampa Bay Rays
The closer landscape gets decidedly murkier beneath its top tier. If you're inclined to roll the dice a bit on a talented reliever with upside, look no further than the Rays' Brad Boxberger. Manager Kevin Cash has said the 26-year-old right-hander will fill in for about a month as incumbent closer Jake McGee recovers from elbow surgery. Boxberger put up some great numbers in 64.2 innings last season, striking out 104 batters and surrendering only 17 earned runs. He should offer significant value in April and potentially beyond. Though McGee is no slouch, Boxberger might be given the chance to hold onto the closer's job if he impresses, especially on a young squad in transition like Tampa Bay. Owners could consider taking him as a sleeper candidate with one of their last couple draft selections.
In WR news, Cruz just started running at the Giants facility last week, but it looks like the Giants are going to ease Cruz back into action to ensure that the receiver doesn't have a setback. Coach Tom Coughlin has already hinted at the fact that the organization would make sure Cruz was fully healed before he was thrust back into action.
The Giants followed a slow and precise recovery plan with Odell Beckham Jr. last year when he was dealing with an injured hamstring. That plan obviously worked as ODB went on to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. During the 2014 season, Beckham missed the entire pre-season and the first four weeks of the year with a hamstring injury.
Cruz thinks that he will back at 100% by May or June, but outside sources say he is not even close to a return to the field.
If Cruz can get back to his old ways, the Giants will have one of the better one-two punches at wide out in the league. But that is far from certain given that Cruz's success relies on short routes, quick cuts and is coming off one of the worst possible knee injuries.
It will be interesting to see how Cruz progresses through the off-season and if he can ever regain fantasy relevance.
Stay informed with ASL's WR fantasy news.
- Greg Pokriki - Fantasy Focus
The baseball community is always quick to judge, handing out proverbial MVP awards after just the first week of the season and Hall of Fame plaques after one solid season. In the same sense, baseball fans are just as quick to outcast a player after one down season, pushing him to the back burner to be ultimately forgotten. Brandon Phillips has fallen victim to the latter.
Though Phillips struggled last season, he’s only one season removed from an 18 home run, All Star season. He’s a lifetime .271 hitter and has knocked in over 70 RBI in seven of the last nine seasons. To not even consider him for your team would be a mistake.
Of course, there is some reason for reservation. Phillips is only 8-39 this spring putting him at a .205 average. He’s also coming off a significantly down season, though one that was slightly tainted by injury. He only played in 121 games and logged 499 at bats. His power severely dipped, hitting only eight home runs. However, he hasn’t hit any less than 17 in any other season since 2006. He logged only 51 RBI on the season as well. Phillips’ 1.7 WAR was his worst since 2006 as well.
Obviously last season was a disappointment for Phillips, but that doesn’t exclude him from any future success. He’s a talented and persevering personality who doesn’t take kindly to failure. The Reds as a whole are looking at a bounce back season. The lineup will have to be better than last year, and Phillips is not immune to that. If you can get Phillips at the right time or for the right price there is no reason not to add him to your squad. You may even get him as a sleeper if others in your league aren’t paying him the respect he deserves.
- Tim Haberin - Fantasy Focus
Cardinals right-hander Michael Wacha tossed 5.2 shutout innings and fanned four on Wednesday, March 25, edging Max Scherzer and the Nationals in a 1-0 Spring Training victory. The performance is good news for MLB fantasy owners counting on the young starter to do big things in 2015.
Last season saw him start just 19 games as a shoulder injury sidelined him for two and a half months. Referred to as a "stress reaction" of the shoulder rather than a fracture, the injury was deemed not as severe as similar ones suffered by pitchers such as Brandon McCarthy. Wacha has shown no lingering effects of the ailment, posting a 1.76 ERA and walking only one batter in 15.1 innings this spring.
Though he pitched through discomfort for significant stretches of last year, Wacha still managed some impressive numbers that point toward the front-end rotation piece St. Louis hopes he can be.
At only 23 years old, Wacha appears well-suited to rebound quickly from his shoulder woes and continue improving during the upcoming season. However, his youth may also spell some disadvantages as far as fantasy owners are concerned.
In two big league seasons, Wacha has logged only 171.2 innings, and the Cardinals may try to take things slow on the heels of his shoulder issue and not push him. It's possible he might be limited to around five innings some nights and miss out on some valuable wins and quality starts.
Regardless, the talent and potential are there, and you shouldn't hesitate to pick Wacha around the 130th selection of your draft. If he takes the ball every five days, he can certainly be a top-25 starting pitcher in 2015. He should prove an asset in terms of ERA, WHIP, and strikeouts even if wins are a bit inconsistent.
- Tim Haberin - Fantasy Focus
1. Paul Goldschmidt - Arizona Diamondbacks
Although playing for the low-key D'backs may somewhat limit his national exposure, Paul Goldschmidt is without a doubt, the best first base option in this year's fantasy campaign. Even though he missed 53 games last season, he still managed significant offensive production with a .938 OPS. His performance in 2013 provided a far more comprehensive demonstration of Goldschmidt's outstanding talent. He led the National League in a host major offensive categories - 36 HR, 125 RBI, .551 SLG, and .952 OPS - en route to finishing second in MVP voting. And at 27 years old, his star may still be trending upward.
2. Miguel Cabrera - Detroit Tigers
Miguel Cabrera has been eclipsed by the likes of Mike Trout in "best in the game" arguments, but he remains an elite talent and a fantasy cornerstone. Last season was a bit of a down year for him, yet still one virtually every player in baseball would love to have. A slow start contributed to a drop in HR (25) and RBI totals (109), but he still batted over .310 (.313) like he has in 9 of the last 10 seasons. Cabrera has also been remarkably durable, playing fewer than 150 games only once since his debut season. There is some reason for caution, however. He turns 32 next month, meaning some signs of offensive decline last year (his .183 drop in OPS, for example) might continue.
3. Anthony Rizzo - Chicago Cubs
With two full MLB seasons to his name, Rizzo should enjoy his best one yet in 2015 and assert his place among the game's premier first basemen. He has shown considerable power since entering the league and last year improved his on-base ability, posting a .386 OBP to go with his 32 HR. And considering he missed 21 games, 35 HR and 100 RBI seem like a minimum benchmark if he plays a complete season. Like Goldschmidt, the 25-year-old Rizzo's youth only enhances his appeal.
4. Edwin Encarnación - Toronto Blue Jays
In a league where power numbers are increasingly precious, Encarnación has become one of the more reliable sluggers in the game. He's exceeded .900 OPS in each of the previous three seasons, and though limited to 128 games in 2014 he still smacked 34 homers and drove in 98 runs. Injury woes remain a concern and he won't help you much in terms of batting average, but the 40 HR/100 RBI potential is much too enticing to ignore.
Bonus Sleeper: Brandon Belt - San Francisco Giants
If you miss out on some of the bigger names at first base, don't panic. A variety of buy-low candidates like Brandon Belt are primed to defy expectations this season. The 26-year-old Belt seems particularly ready to break out if he stays healthy. Injuries kept him out of 101 games in 2014, but he capped it off with an exclamation point by hitting .295 in the postseason. In 150 games the year prior he hit .289 with 17 HR and 67 RBI. He also appears to be developing a bit of a power stroke: his home run to fly ball ratio jumped to 18% last season. Belt should be available around the 200th selection in the draft, but consider taking him a little earlier.
There are obviously always going to be players who have been cramming for the upcoming fantasy draft for weeks now. They are reading every fantasy trade publication, listening to sports radio in the car and watching Baseball Tonight podcasts into the wee hours of the morning. However, all is not lost. With a little bit of common sense and a some sensible research, the average sports fan can be ready for the draft in about 90 minutes.
Fantasy Sports championships are rarely won during the initial fantasy draft, but building a decent fantasy squad NEVER hurts. Here are 3 tips to help smooth out the bumps in this year's fantasy draft:
Make, borrow or steal a 1-PAGE cheat sheet -
Have a notebook, laminated placard or scrap of paper that has at least 3 players listed that you really want at each position. This takes a little more homework, but it gives you a rough strategy on how to run your draft.
Feel free to stray away if you see a juicy player sitting on the board, but keep the list handy. When those seconds start ticking away, having a cheat sheet could mean the difference between drafting a solid player or another completely wasted pick.
Phones can die, computers can lose signal, magazines are too hard to navigate, one piece of paper is all that you need. Your cheat sheet must limited to ONE-PAGE. There’s nothing more entertaining that watching someone with 2 open magazines and 30 sheets of paper flying around like a sand storm while they are trying to remember the name of that hotshot minor leaguer that’s supposed to set the league on fire.
Don’t be a Charles Barkley!
Sir Charles obviously has no business calling NCAA Men’s college games because he could care less. During the first half of the Kansas vs. Wichita State game, he mentioned that Cliff Alexander was playing pretty good. The only problem is that Cliff Alexander in under investigation by the NCAA and hasn’t stepped foot on basketball court in the nearly a month.
My point is, even if you are a casual player, READ an MLB INJURY REPORT!
It never ceases to amaze me during a fantasy draft when some genius scoops up a player who is injured, suspended or is already done for the year. It takes about 20 minutes for that bit of research and saves you from a wasted pick or being the laughing stock of your fantasy league.
Only draft players you have actually heard of -
This seems like common sense, but many people still feel compelled to roll the dice.
WOW – You found a top-50 ranked pitcher – And he’s still on the board, what a steal!!
Maybe, maybe not? It doesn’t matter how this player slipped under your notice, drafting someone you don’t know is tempting, but not worth the risk. There are 1,200 active players to choose from and it only makes sense to draft someone you have heard of before.
The Buffalo Bills have made some big moves (with fantasy football implications) during the offseason and now arguably have one of the most talented teams in the NFL. It all started with the hiring of Rex Ryan as their head coach and the blockbuster trade that landed NFL fantasy stalwart LeSean McCoy in exchange for Kiko Alonso. The Bills have been busy in free agency as well with the notable signings of Percy Harvin and Charles Clay.
If the season started today, the Bills would have LeSean McCoy, Sammy Watkins, Percy Harvin, Robert Woods, and Charles Clay as the focal pieces of their offense. What's missing in that All-Star lineup? Only the most important piece, the quarterback. The Bills will need either EJ Manuel, Matt Cassel or a quarterback they get in the upcoming draft to play some quality football to win the AFC East and dethrone the defending Superbowl champion Patriots.
The Bills now have one of the best defensive minds in the NFL as their head coach, a defense that led the NFL in sacks last year with 54, and all the offensive weapons a quarterback could ask for. With that said, it's still hard to imagine the Bills winning the AFC East this year because of the uncertainty at the quarterback position. At the same time, it's hard to imagine the Bills not making the playoffs as a Wild Card team and being a team that nobody wants to face in the playoffs.
It will be a pleasure to see some competitive AFC East match-ups this upcoming season, but as long as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick reside in New England, the Patriots will be the class of the AFC East.
Stay tuned for the latest NFL player news!
- Greg Pokriki - Fantasy Focus
In most MLB fantasy leagues, you only need to start one catcher and carry a max of two on your roster. Taking a chance at the position is a high risk, low reward proposition unless you snag Buster Posey. Orioles catcher Matt Wieters is returning from Tommy John surgery, a rare injury for a player at his position. The rarity itself is cause for concern on his return and how completely he will recover.
Catching nearly everyday of a MLB season is arguably one of the most strenuous jobs in the league, leaving Wieters’ risk for re-injury presumably somewhat high. In addition to the Tommy John surgery, Wieters has recently been diagnosed with elbow tendinitis.
The diagnosis is likely just a bump in the road, causing him only to miss a few days. However, when it comes to your fantasy team, with the amount of more reliable options around him, it makes sense to leave Wieters for someone else to draft.
When it comes to Wieters, why risk it? With fantasy trophies often decided by which team stays the healthiest, you should err on the side of caution. Better options include catchers like Brian McCann or Russell Martin.
