- RC Fischer - Fantasy Football Metrics
Never doubt Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
My big lesson from this week: It’s fun to making sweeping judgments of teams week-to-week, early in the season (or anytime in the season). Constantly reading the tea leaves to find the strand of DNA to prove a point…comparing who they beat prior, and what teams the teams they beat…beat prior, etc. It’s neat fodder. It is mostly a meaningless exercise. The Patriots aren’t dead. The Saints aren’t dead. The Seahawks weren’t the best team in football. The Bengals weren’t the best team in football. The Chargers weren’t the best team in football. The Cowboys weren’t the best team in football. The Broncos aren’t dead either.
Teams with elite QBs and best fantasy football keepers are never ‘dead’. Teams with really good, but not elite QBs, hit hot streaks…that fizzle eventually, but heating up down the stretch…those non-elite/very good QBs could win a Super Bowl. In the end, elite QBs answer the bell more times than not. The six-win teams right now: Foles, C.Palmer, Brady, Big Ben, Peyton, Stafford, and Luck likely to join them tonight. Where are Brees, Romo, Rivers, and Rodgers? Either leading their division or are a game back. You don’t think Stafford and Palmer belong with the other QBs on the 6+ wins YTD list? Give it some time…their teams are more likely due for that ‘hot streak’ comeuppance. It’s amazing how simple, and maddening it is: QB means everything.
Why a trend doesn't happen of every NFL team carrying 4-5 QBs in hopes of finding ‘the one’ (or two) is beyond me…especially the teams with garbage at QB.
QB Fantasy Football News -
Many questions will be answered when Robert Griffin III, ex-stud fantasy QB, takes center stage in Minnesota today against a very vulnerable Minnesota Vikings defense. The most important one will revolve around how well he is he able to move on the field and whether or not he will be ale to run the ball. For RG3 to be at his best, he has to have his astonishing quickness and stunning mobility. Without those two game-changing attributes, he is nothing more than a flat footed disaster.
The Redskins offense has been a mess all season long and many hope that RG3 is the ticket to turning that around. There’s certainly been some division in the locker room since Griffin went down during Week 2 with a dislocated ankle and landed himself in QB fantasy news for his injury.
There’s no question that RG3 is an upgrade over Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy IF he is healthy, but even after practicing this week, few people know what to really expect.
If Griffin isn’t close to 100 percent, there will be loud and furious calls to reinstate Colt McCoy. RG3 is far from a traditional quarterback and is NOT going to be successful hanging back in the pocket looking for open receivers. His best chance for success is to be his run and gun self and that will only happen if his ankle is really able to stand up to the test.
Stay updated on QB news with Fantasy Focus.
Start
1. QB Carson Palmer, ARI:
Palmer is coming off a spectacular outing, completing 20 passes for 329 yards, 2 touchdowns and 0 interceptions as the Cardinals took down the Eagles. Palmer is faced with a mediocre Dallas pass defense that is allowing 237.4 passing yards per contest. Since coming back from injury, the 34-year-old veteran QB has proved he still has something left in the tank, throwing for 832 yards, 6 touchdowns and 1 interception in 3 games. Expect Palmer to keep up the high level of productivity. He is a good fantasy football start option and can be used as a solid QB1 in standard fantasy formats.
2. RB Ahmad Bradshaw, IND:
Bradshaw has shown his knack for finding the end zone for the Colts, doing so successfully in 3 straight games. He has essentially surpassed Trent Richardson as the feature back, and has put up more impressive numbers and that trend will continue. He has a very favorable match as the Colts head to New York to take on the Giants (22nd rush defense, allowing 122 rushing yards per game). Not only is their rush defense weak, but Bradshaw has extra motivation, facing his former team. Consider Bradshaw a low end RB1 for this week's contest.
3. WR Mohamed Sanu, CIN:
Sanu had a solid game last week, catching 5 passes for 125 yards, as he took over at lead wide receiver with A.J. Green out for the game. The Bengals WR corps will face a very easy opponent in the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jags are awful against the pass, allowing 267.4 passing yards per game, which should allow QB Andy Dalton to have a field day with the tools at his disposal. Don't be surprised if Sanu exceeds expectations, and goes off for 80-100 yards and a touchdown. Sanu can be plugged in as a WR2 with WR1 upside.
Sit
1. WR Vincent Jackson, TB:
Vincent Jackson is most certainly a WR1 caliber player, but weak quarterback play makes him a less-than-trustworthy start. Having Mike Glennon under center causes Jackson's value to take a massive hit, and he has not had a good performance since he went of for 8-144-0 against the Saints Week 5. He's playing a weak pass defense in the Cleveland Browns, but Vincent Jackson has failed to prove he can be a consistent fantasy contributor, and should not be trusted as anything more than a weak WR2 for Sunday.
2. RB Darren McFadden, OAK:
McFadden is not an advised play as the Raiders head to Seattle for Sunday's contest. McFadden struggled against the Browns, going for 12-59-0 with a lost fumble, and will be facing a much tougher opponent in the Seahawks. The Seattle rush defense ranks 6th against the run allowing 89.6 rushing yards per contest, and the injury-plagued Darren McFadden will struggle to get things going. Raiders coach Tony Sparano has advocated giving more carries to RB Maurice Jones-Drew, which will probably cut into McFadden's workload as well. Consider Darren McFadden nothing more than a weak RB3 at Seattle.
For the latest and most comprehensive fantasy sit start info, keep reading ASL!
- Jack Williams - Fantasy Focus
RB Fantasy Football News
There's a certain amount of trust that goes into selecting your first round draft pick. You know the risks up front, your top pick could get injured or suspended, but at least you know that they when they are on the field, they will take care of business. Eagles running back LeSean McCoy has been a stunning exception to that rule. McCoy hasn't even been a top 15 fantasy RB all season long and the harsh reality for fantasy owners has set in.
"RB News: Trusting Shady McCoy as a week-to-week staple for one of your two running back spots is no longer an option."
Take Week 8 for example. 21 carries for 83 yards. 8 points in standard fantasy scoring. The player? Shady McCoy. The rub? This type of performance is something Shady has established as an average (maybe even an above-average!) outing.
Through seven games, McCoy has rushed for 422 yards at 3.6 yards per carry. Additionally, he has scored only one touchdown. Last year through seven games, he had 685 yards and three touchdowns. Now, that’s not the biggest gap, however he also had 267 yards receiving versus only 74 so far this year.
It doesn't matter who or what is at fault. You can blame the offensive line, Darren Sproles or global warming, but fantasy owners have been blindsided by McCoy's shady play.
What’s most troubling though, beyond McCoy not equaling his pace of a season ago, is the lack of explosive games that have become a staple over the course of his career. Save for last week’s breakout, 149 yard performance against the Giants, Shady has no 100-yard games. Throw in the fact his only touchdown came in week 2, and it is unreasonable to rely on him for double-digit fantasy points, let alone a huge 30-point game sprinkled in somewhere along the way.
The Eagles stand at 5-2, firmly in the playoff hunt, with many positives to point to. Their running game is not one of those positives when looking at the season as a whole. Currently, they rank a middle-of-the-pack 14th after ranking 1st, and by a wide margin, last year.
If Philadelphia is to squeak out important matchups such as this week’s tough loss to Arizona, their running game needs to be better. And at the forefront of their improvement will have to be McCoy. However, based on a string of disappointing fantasy outings, owners can’t wait for that to happen.
One option would be to sell high and get something in return for Shady. There may be players in your league who still find the allure of having McCoy appealing. If they are willing to offer you a running back that can start week-to-week, pull the trigger. If you can’t come to terms with letting him go, study each matchup carefully to determine whether or not he should be starting, or whether another option can help you get the win.
For example, next week the Eagles take on the Houston Texans and their 20th ranked rushing defense. The Texans allow over 118 yards per game on the ground, but they also have a player named JJ Watt, who is good at football. Another factor to consider would be Houston scoring 22.1 points per game in, also ranking 20th in the league. This means the Texans are not likely to sprint out to a huge lead and force the Eagles into playing catch-up. There still may time to try and establish Shady running the ball.
We didn’t think we would be at this point with McCoy, but you must consider these factors and more in terms of his position in your lineup. Through seven games, the evidence clearly shows: Shady McCoy was not worth a top pick in the draft, and you must mix and match to overcome this weakness on your squad.
Keep reading ASL for the latest in RB fantasy news!
RB Fantasy News
Week 9 has some fantasy owners reeling as there are several big name running backs making our RB news with injuries. Doug Martin (ankle), Justin Forsett (leg), and Giovani Bernard (hip) all missed practice Wednesday due to nagging injuries. It looks like Forsett and Bernard will play this week, but Martin is still in a walking boot and shouldn't be trusted even if he does play.
It's time for fantasy owners to have a backup plan for these fantasy RBs that may not be available in Week 9.
Doug Martin - RB (TB)
Given the fact that Martin is still in a walking boot and that running backs aren't very effective with bad ankles, Martin owners need to take a good look at Bobby Rainey. Rainey hasn't been tearing it up on the ground this year, but he is catching a lot of passes out of the backfield. Rainey caught six passes for 41 yards on six targets last week and has put up respectable numbers in PPR leagues in Martin's absence.
Rainey isn't an every-down back with his small frame, but he is in on most passing downs and gets a lot of garbage time receptions out of the backfield. Rainey has a good match-up against Cleveland this week and is a low-end Flex play for Week 9.
Justin Forsett - RB (BAL)
Justin Forsett has been one of the most pleasant surprises at the running back position this year for fantasy owners. Forsett is a top 10 running back in PPR leagues and is a must-start when healthy. Forsett believes he will be ready for Week 9 against the division rival Steelers, but even if he plays, it's hard to tell how effective he will be.
The next man up in Baltimore is Lorenzo Taliaferro. Taliaferro is the the short-yardage back for Baltimore and gets a lot of goal-line carries. In Week 8 at Cincinnati, Taliaferro scored two touchdowns on 27 yards rushing and caught two passes for 42 yards. If Forsett can't play this week or is a game-time decision, it might be a good idea to plug in Taliaferro as a low-end RB2 or low-end Flex play.
Giovani Bernard - RB (CIN)
Giovani Bernard is dealing with multiple health issues including a sore collar bone and a hip pointer injury and did NOT practice on Thursday. Bernard missed most of the fourth quarter during Week 8 against the Ravens and hasn't practiced since. Luckily for Bernard owners, Cincinnati has a very viable back-up in Jeremy Hill. Hill is owned in roughly 50% fantasy leagues as Bernard is good enough to need a handcuff, and Hill is good enough to produce decent numbers in Bernard's absence.
Hill is only worth fantasy consideration if Bernard is inactive for Week 9. If Bernard can't play in Week 9, Hill has low-end RB2 and Flex consideration.
For the most updated RB fantasy football news, stay tuned with ASL!
- RC Fischer - Fantasy Football Metrics
Fantasy Waiver Wire Pickups -
DL Sharrif Floyd, Minnesota (Not currently ranked in Fantasy Pros Top-50 DLs for Week-9)
At one time, Sharrif Floyd was mock drafted as the #1 overall pick in the 2013 NFL Draft. He faded soon after, and wound up as a #23 overall pick for Minnesota. He struggled in 2013, and was barely noticed. Floyd started slowly this year, but is coming on of late.
Weeks 1-6: 1.8 tackles, 0.17 sacks per game
Weeks 7-8: 6.5 tackles, 1.00 sacks per game
Floyd may finally be 'getting it' working with defensive guru head coach Mike Zimmer. His development is one to watch, but he may have already 'arrived', and yet is still a little under-the-radar. If he is available, Floyd is one of the better fantasy pickups around.
LB Telvin Smith, Jacksonville (Not currently ranked in Fantasy Pros Top-50 LBs for Week-9)
This is a defensive 'snaps' story, as much as it is a talent alert...
39 (66% of all defensive plays) = Snap Count Week-8
38 (51%) = Snap Count Week-7
14 (24%) = Snap Count Week-6
39 (51%) = Snap Count Week-5
19 (30%) = Snap Count Week-4
23 (31%) = Snap Count Week-3
Smith was a 5th-round draft pick for the Jags in 2014, a star at Florida State, who we scouted as one of the best coverage linebackers in this draft...a quasi-Safety/OLB (6'3, 218). Smith has impressive measurables as a 4.5+ runner with above-average agility for an OLB. He picked off three passes last season and returned two for TD for the National Champion Seminoles. He's the kind of OLB that can lead all linebackers in interceptions...an OLB with speed and great coverage instincts.
He's a so-so tackler, but his speeds lends itself to getting to action to compile ‘OK’ tackle counts (83 tackles last season in 14 games at FSU). He can be used as a surprise OLB blitzer in a 4-3, and could grab 2-3-4 sacks in a season surrounded by the right environment. If your scoring system favors interceptions, fumble recoveries, and defensive TDs...Telvin Smith is one to have on the radar if he begins to play most/all defensive snaps for the Jags. Things seem to be shifting his way.
DB Deone Bucannon, Arizona (Not currently ranked in Fantasy Pros Top-50 DBs for Week-9)
In our College Football Metrics' draft studies for 2014, our computer scouting models felt Deone Bucannon was a top-10 best overall player in the draft, and a future Pro Bowler. No Safety prospect tackles like Deone Bucannon from the 2014 class, or 2013, or I'm not sure I've ever seen a better tackler/hitter than Bucannon.
He is a vicious striker, and nearly sure to bring down the ball carrier on every hit. Not only does he crush runners like a linebacker, but he has 4.4+ speed, and is very good in coverage. He is an every-down Strong Safety waiting to happen, and has been playing a lot of de facto linebacker for Arizona this season...playing about 70%+ of the defensive snaps, and playing more than Tyrann Mattieu.
Tony Jefferson has started, and played a lot of snaps for Arizona this year, but he got concussed against Philly...as did Patrick Peterson. By default, Bucannon may play the entire game for the Cardinals this week. If he does, watch out for 10+ tackles against Dallas...the first of many to come for Bucannon.
-- R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software "The Machine.”
Fantasy Waiver Wire Pickups -
1. WR Donte Moncrief, IND:
Moncrief stepped up in the absence of Reggie Wayne, putting up an impressive line of 7-113-1 on 12 targets. Though Hakeem Nicks received more time on the field, his production (1 catch for 27 yards) was far outweighed by that of Moncrief. Reggie Wayne may be back next week, but the young talented Moncrief may have earned himself some more time on the field with is athleticism and playmaking ability. With red-hot QB Andrew Luck at the helm, all Colts WRs that receive playing time are worth having in most standard fantasy formats. In reference to Donte Moncrief, he could be a solid WR3 going forward, with the potential to surpass Hakeem Nicks on the depth chart.
2. WR Martavis Bryant, PIT:
Steelers rookie wide receiver Martavis Bryant put up another strong performance, going for a line of 5-83-2 (on only 33 offensive snaps) as quarterback Ben Roethlisberger had a career day against the Colts. Bryant has quickly shown that he is a better wideout for the Steelers than Markus Wheaton and will likely take over the starting job in a week or two. During his first two career starts, Bryant caught 7 of 12 targets for 123 yards and 3 touchdowns. His role will undoubtedly continue to expand as he proves to be a real threat in the red zone with his 6'4" frame. As Bryant is likely to take over opposite Antonio Brown, he can be added as a middle-of-the-pack WR3 with major upside, especially in reference to scoring touchdowns, and is one of the best fantasy pickups if available.
3. WR Josh Gordon, CLE:
Gordon will be eligible to play for the Browns once again after his suspension is lifted on Week 12. Though he cannot play for the next few weeks, he is a must-add in all standard fantasy leagues with immediate WR1 potential. Gordon dominated opponents in 2013 as he went off for 87-1646-9 in only 14 games, while breaking 100 yards 7 times. The only current elite target in the Browns receiving corps is TE Jordan Cameron, and Gordon provides them with a significant upgrade in that department. For fantasy teams heading for the playoffs, Gordon can provide a large boost, as he is clearly an elite talent that can play well, regardless of whether it's Manziel or Hoyer throwing to him. Add Josh Gordon before it's too late.
4. WR Brandon LaFell, NE:
LaFell went off on Sunday, going for 11-124-1 as the Patriots destroyed the Bears. Quarterback Tom Brady took advantage of Chicago's defense, lighting them up for 354 yards and 5 touchdowns, and LaFell was one of the biggest benefactors. It's pretty safe to say that his success is almost directly correlated to that of Brady's. Their passing game has been solid in recent weeks, and should continue to thrive. The 27-year-old former Panthers wideout has seen a major increase in playing time, and he was on the field for 61-74 offensive snaps against the Bears. He has become one of Brady's primary receivers and should continue to get a decent amount of targets. LaFell is worth an add and start as a WR3 in standard and PPR fantasy formats.
The Dallas Cowboys saw their 2014 season flash before their eyes Monday night as quarterback Tony Romo lay flat on his back after being pummeled by Redskins linebacker Keenan Robinson.
The 34-year-old quarterback has had his back surgically repaired twice, landing him on the NFL injury updates list, and that’s exactly where he took the shot from Robinson. He crumpled to the turf as Cowboys fans and fantasy owners held their collective breaths.
Romo was taken in for X-Rays and when they came back negative, the coaching staff made a highly questionable decision and stuck him right back into the game. Romo was clearly in no shape to play and backup quarterback Brandon Weeden had already engineered 10 points for the struggling Dallas offense.
Romo went on to lose the game in overtime and was slow and sore when he left the stadium. An MRI will determine whether or not Romo suffered any additional damage, but the team is reporting that the beleaguered quarterback will limp away with just a muscle contusion. We will keep an eye on him in our fantasy injury updates column.
This will be a short week for Romo and the Boys who are scheduled to play at home against a Cardinals defense that shuts down the run and will force Romo to throw. Stay connected with Fantasy Focus for the most up-to-date injury updates.
- RC Fischer - Fantasy Football Metrics
NFL Fantasy Sleepers -
The Detroit Lions have to be the worst 6-2 team in the history of football, but 6-2 they are. The Lions don't have a long list of best fantasy football keepers and should really be a nice 4-4, but now they are likely headed to the playoffs. They tried desperately to lose this game…they got down quick, but not insurmountable (obviously). They totally abandoned the running game and instead tryied to overwork Theo Riddick (3 carries for 5 yards, 8 rec. for 74 yards and 1 TD on 12 targets)…which was a big mistake.
During the 2nd-half, the team remembered it had Joique Bell (14 carries for 39 yards, 2 rec. for 22 yards on 3 targets) on the roster, and recalled the Falcons have no run defense. Bell had some huge plays…not as much long/crazy gainers, as they were critical extra effort plays that changed the course of the game by extending drives.
This week, Riddick will be the one of the fantasy RB sleeper picks that Fantasy analysts slobber over. He’s a marginal talent…I mean marginal. He’s Fozzy Whittaker good. Feed any NFL-worthy RB 12 targets…and you might get eight catches too. Riddick cannot carry Reggie Bush’s (DNP) jock, but the controversy is on now…at least for a week. This is the NFL, so I guess I won’t be shocked if Riddick hones in on 3-4-5 targets a game, taking them from Bush. When Bush is back…this RB situation is probably a full-on mess.
Here is a list of Fantasy Injury Updates:
RB - Darren Sproles – Questionable
Eagles running back Darren Sproles has been struggling with a knee issue since he got injured two weeks ago in a Sunday night game against the Giants. He’s been limited in practice all week long and is certainly at less than 100%
RB - Shane Vereen – Starting
Shane Vereen has been sick and missed Friday’s practice, but is not expected to miss any time during the Patriots home matchup against the visiting Bears. He’s a solid play against a shaky Chicago defense.
RB - Trent Richardson – Questionable
No final decision has been made yet, but it looks like the Colts are going to hold Trent Richardson out of this afternoon’s game against the Steelers. Richardson is struggling with a hamstring issue and has been in our NFL injury updates a lot. If he’s held out of the game, Ahmad Bradshaw owners could see a nice boost in production against the subpar Steelers defense.
WR - Vincent Jackson – Starting
As the trade talks swirl around Bucs receiver Vincent Jackson, he’s been listed as questionable all week long with sore ribs. However, Jackson played through the injury during Week 6 and benefitted from extra time off with a bye week. He is a strong play at home against a patchy Vikings pass defense.
WR - A.J. Green – OUT
A.J. Green says he will be at less than hundred percent for the rest of the season because of a toe injury and will NOT suit up for the Bengals Week 8 contest against the visiting Ravens. Fantasy owners should not expect Green to return any time before Week 10.
WR - Reggie Wayne – OUT
Reggie Wayne will NOT be in the Colts Week 8 lineup on the road against the Steelers. He hurt his elbow during Week 7 against the Bengals and his numbers have been tumbling since a big game against the Titans during Week 4.
TE - Jimmy Graham - Starting
Jimmy Graham fantasy owners are left in a tough spot again as the banged up tight end will likely play tonight against the visiting Green Bay Packers. Graham was used only as a decoy last week against the Lions and dropped a big fat ZERO on fantasy owners. However, he is Jimmy Graham and you have no choice but to plug him into your lineup tonight and hope for the best.
Stay tuned to Fantasy Focus for the latest injury updates.
