The 7-8-1 Carolina Panthers will be hosting the 11-5 Arizona Cardinals and the red-hot Panthers might be set to advance. The Cardinals have a laundry list of injured players, none more important currently than QB Drew Stanton. The Cardinals are down to their 3rd string quarterback, Ryan Lindley and he's likely to have a bad day against a resurgent Carolina defense. Various fantasy football implications are in play!
With no strong running game in order due to Andre Ellington's absence (placed on injured reserve before their Week 14 contest), they will have no chance of doing any damage on offense. The only possible benefactor could be Cards wideout Michael Floyd, as he and Lindley have established good rapport, hooking up for 153 yards and 2 touchdowns in last week's loss to the 49ers.
However, for Carolina, expect coach Ron Rivera to allow Cam Newton, NFL fantasy stud, to run wild within the offense. The Arizona defense will probably be on the field most of the game because the Carolina defense is likely to force multiple 3 and outs against the Cardinals. With lead receiver Kelvin Benjamin healthy and prevalent in the offense, he should be seeing 7-10 targets, and put together a solid amount of receptions and receiving yards.
As a solid contrast to Cam Newton and company, running back Jonathan Stewart should also break off into a few long runs and cash in on some goal-line opportunities. Stewart has re-established himself as a powerful halfback with breakaway speed, and his confidence should carry him to another successful performance and a Panthers win.
As for the contest between Dallas and Detroit, the outcome is a little less certain. The high-powered Cowboys offense will prepare to host the stifling Lions defense, in what should be a very entertaining game.
In other NFL player news, Dallas's high-powered offense has succeeded throughout the season due to their three headed monster in QB Tony Romo, RB DeMarco Murray and WR Dez Bryant. Murray broke the franchise record by rushing for 1,845 rushing yards this season, but faces the tough task of the stout Lions rush defense. Detroit finished the season first in allowing 69.3 rushing yards per contest, and will have its hands full against the league's leading rusher in what should be a very tough battle. The Lions killed it against the run, but they were only slightly above average against the pass this season (ranking 13th in surrendering 231.6 passing yards per game), and Romo will exploit them as much as possible. Romo has not only Dez Bryant, but Terrance Williams, Jason Witten and Cole Beasley there to make big plays for him. Expect Bryant to come down with a touchdown, and Jason Witten should get some goal-line looks as well. Murray will struggle but his heavy workload and breakaway ability should lead to a solid performance on his end as well, especially once the Lions begin to overcompensate for Romo's dangerous passing offense.
Looking at the other half of the battle, the Lions offense will face the cupcake Cowboys defense, as they should be able to score some points with their high profile passing attack. QB Matthew Stafford has a pair of 1,000 yard wideouts in Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson, and both of them should be expected to see many passes thrown their way. The Cowboys finished 26th in allowing 251.9 passing yards per game, and Stafford should have fun picking on their lackluster secondary. A 100 yard performance should be in order for Megatron, and Golden Tate will look to do his damage on some short range catches. The Lions rushing attack will be led by starter Joique Bell, but don't expect too much from him. Coach Caldwell will most likely look to exploit the weakness in the weak Cowboys pass defense, limiting Bell's touches and ceiling. Despite Detroit's favorable match up with the Cowboys defense, Dallas should be able to overcome adversity and come out with a win. The Cowboys are simply too strong and too difficult to handle, even with a tough defense led by Ndamokung Suh and company.
Wild-Card weekend is here and it's win or go home from here on out. There are two excellent AFC math-ups this weekend with the Baltimore Ravens taking on their division rival Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday and The Colts hosting the Bengals on Sunday. Both games will be rematches from earlier this season but many things have changed since those match-ups occurred.
Let's take a look at the key factors in each game and who should come out on top.
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers, Saturday @ 8:15 PM EST.
The Ravens and Steelers split the season series with the home team winning big each time. The Steelers won't have the services of All-Pro Running Back Le'Veon Bell, so it will be up to Big Ben and Antonio Brown to carry the Steelers on offense. On the flip-side of the ball, the Ravens boast one of the best Front 7's in the NFL, but they have a decimated secondary that has been their Achillies' Heel all season. Antonio Brown Brown and Big Ben should produce big numbers through the air, but can the Steelers scratch out a win without an effective running game?
The Ravens will have a more balanced attack with a solid running game and a pair of big-play receivers in Steve Smith Sr. and Torey Smith. The additional of Offensive Coordinator Gary Kubiak has made Baltimore an excellent zone running team with a deadly play-action passing game. The Ravens will be going up against a Steelers team that also has been decimated with injuries and is a shell of themselves compared to the Dick LeBeau defenses of the past.
While both teams have surprisingly been led by their offenses all year, look for a defensive battle and a win for the home team. The Ravens were only 1-6 against teams with winning records this season, while the Steelers were 5-1 against playoff teams (3-0 at home).
Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts, Sunday @ 1:15 PM EST
In Week 7, the Colts completely dismantled the Bengals to the tune of 27-0 and completely changed the outlook of the Bengals season. In that game, the Bengals were held to 32 rushing yards and then starting Running Back, Giovanni Bernard, was injured for several weeks. Since Bernard's injury, Rookie Running Back Jeremy Hill has come in and produced big numbers and is dominating touches out of the backfield even with Bernard back in the lineup. Hill was recently voted as the team MVP by his teammates and the Bengals now have one of the best one-two punches out of the backfield.
In NFL player news, A.J. Green did not play in Week 7 due to a foot injury and Green has all but been ruled out of this weeks match-up as well with a concussion, bad news for playoff fantasy football owners. Ahmad Bradshaw did most of the damage for the Colts out of the backfield in Week 7 and has since been put on season ending I.R. The Colts running game has not been the same since without Bradshaw. What did we learn from this Week 7 match-up? Pretty much nothing. The Colts were a different team back then and the Bengals are a different team now.
This game will come down to turnovers. NFL fantasy stalwart Andrew Luck can sling it with the best of them but threw seven interceptions in two playoff games last year. His counterpart, Andy Dalton, has yet to win a playoff game (0-3) and has struggled in prime-time games throughout is career. Without A.J. Green, I don't think the Bengals will be able to keep up with a Colts team that should be able to play some inspired football in front of their home crowd.
I see this being a close game with the Bengals finding success in the running game and their defense to keep them in the game. Until the Bengals win a playoff with Dalton under Center, you won't see me picking them to win a playoff game on the road. Look for the Colts to come out on top as Luck outplays Dalton in Lucas Oil Stadium.
- Austin Becker - Fantasy Focus
RB Fantasy Football News -
Steelers running back Le’Veon Bell has been one of the great stories this year in the National Football League. Bell is clearly one of the Steelers most valuable players. That being said, the Steelers playoff prospects continue to dim with Bell's hyperextended his right knee.
The only good news out of Steeler’s camp thus far is that the injury is nothing more than a hyperextension and not a tear. It can also be noted that Bell did not have a brace on the injured knee nor did he need crutches.
If Bell is not able to play against the Ravens or if he is completely limited by his injury, the Steelers running game will likely fall apart. The sophomore running back out of Michigan State finished the regular season as the AFC’s leading rusher with 1,361 rushing yards.
To add salt to the Steeler’s wound, the backup running back situation is nothing to write home about. In RB fantasy news, Pittsburgh signed fantasy RB Ben Tate on Tuesday to provide some veteran leadership for rookie backups Dri Archer and Josh Harris.
It has been proven that a good running game will help your team tremendously in the playoffs, especially a team that already relies on the run. A good running game creates more man coverage for Steelers standout wide receiver Antonio Brown.
If Bell is healthy and can play, the Steelers are back in the driver's seat. However, the reality is that there is very little chance that Bell will even suit up, because the Steelers know better than to risk the future of the franchise for one Wild Card Game.
Keep reading ASL RB news for info that could help your team!
QB Fantasy Football News -
In QB news, Packers QB Aaron Rodgers re-aggravated his calf injury and injured his Achilles tendon during Sunday's game against the Lions, but was able to secure the win with some second-half heroics. Though he looked troubled by his lower leg issue after resuming play, the former MVP and Super Bowl champion should be good to go after two weeks of recovery.
Rodgers was forced from the game in the latter part of the second quarter, and was replaced by Matt Flynn for two series. Flynn, not the same caliber of fantasy QB as Rodgers, threw just one pass for 6 yards, as Green Bay simply used the running game to buy time until their star quarterback was ready to return.
Rodgers had trouble exhibiting his characteristically mobile abilities after re-injuring his left calf injury, but still dominated a Lions defense that simply had no answer. Aaron Rodgers threw a 13-yard touchdown to Randall Cobb (his second TD catch of the game), and ran one in himself from 1 yard out after re-entering the game. He showed that his pocket-passing skills alone can carry his team to victory, and any mobility he has for going forward will just be a bonus.
Rodgers thought he might have blown out his Achilles tendon on Sunday, but he was obviously able to return to the game and put the finishing touches on the Lions. Even after Ndamukong Suh stepped on his leg not once, but twice.
With his obvious discomfort, Rodgers considers himself fortunate that the Packers have a first round bye and hopes that his calf will feel much better on January 11th when the Packers begin the NFC Divisional Playoffs.
Stay tuned to Fantasy Focus for QB fantasy news updates.
The world was watching and once again the NFL dropped the ball on properly disciplining its most notorious player, Ndamukong Suh. In NFL player news, the league suspended Suh for just one game for violating the league’s policy on player safety after he intentionally stepped on NFL fantasy stud Aaron Rodgers' ankle not once, but twice.
The NFL basically put their stamp of approval on Suh’s long shameful rap sheet of trying to injure helpless players long after the whistle has blown. Since coming into the league, Suh has been disciplined at least 8 times for unacceptable on-field conduct and this one game suspension is a farce. Suh has no fear of NFL’s flimsy discipline, so he will go forth and act anyway he pleases.
One of Suh’s most famous infractions was during a Thanksgiving game in 2012, when he kicked Matt Schaub in the groin. And let’s not forget last season when he drew a $100,000 fine from the league for an illegal low block or 2011 when he was suspended for two games after he stomped on the arm of Evan Dietrich-Smith.
He’s also been fined for illegal hits on Jay Cutler, Andy Dalton, Brandon Weeden and Jake Delhomme (coincidentally not the best fantasy football QBs).
The apologists and excuse makers will say that Suh was back-pedaling and the whole thing was an accident. But we’ve heard this tired song before, Suh’s act is old and he’s been caught lying when trying to injure players in the past. Suh is already appealing the decision, but it’s all part of his game. He stomps and kicks players while the league shakes its finger and says tisk-tisk.
- R.C. Fischer - Fantasy Football Metrics
I assume Mike Smith will get the boot after this game. It’s odd to me that one game in a crappy season, with the luck that the whole division is bad, could determine the employment fate of a head coach…but I get it. As an owner, it's all about the NFL trends and if you aren’t 100% sure…if you’re on the bubble with an employee…the last thing you see with an employee counts a lot. It’s like the sad annual reviews you get in corporate jobs…all that is discussed are usually things that have occurred in the last 30-60…1-2 days. If the last thing you ‘see’ weighs heavily in an employment decision…then the Falcons’ owner saw this game, and that has to mean Mike Smith is gone.
Along with Smith will probably go the General Manager, in my estimation. This Atlanta team never got better than that run they made a few years ago. The O-Line has been an issue for years. The RBs brought in after Michael Turner faded were poor—and Jacquizz Rodgers was a debacle that cost I don’t know how many moments/games. The defensive pass rush was always snickered at by analysts. The defense in general did not improve enough…the D was making a move down the stretch, but then got ripped apart by a flawed Carolina offense in Week 17. The GM hasn’t done a bad job, but this team didn’t improve in a division that was filled with grace. It’s probably time for a sweeping fresh start.
Smith is all but gone, and the GM is probably gone too. In my opinion, the GM has done enough based on the team’s record/stretch of a few years ago, along with decent drafting the past few seasons that he should get another chance to make a run with a new head coach, but I assume a sweeping change is coming to lure a new coach.
— Matt Ryan (29-47 for 260 yards, 0 TD/2 INT) has fully entered the ‘Joe Flacco zone’. That zone is: You wish you had a better QB, but then you look around and realize there is no way to really do much better than a Ryan/Flacco/Dalton, etc. You can’t trade for Aaron Rodgers. You can’t draft a college prospect who is better, but you’re never going to be an elite offense with Ryan either…you’re stuck hoping every once in a while he gets on a hot streak, combined with a good-great defense, and you miraculously win the Super Bowl once in a lifetime (like Flacco did). You could do worse than Matt Ryan, but you’re never really satisfied or fully confident with him.
Ryan had a coddled, favorable relationship with Mike Smith…and it made Ryan a fringe top-10 Fantasy QB at best the past two seasons. If the opposite of Smith is hired next (as is usually the case in coaching changes—a 180 move from the old coach), then a stifling, old-school, defensive-minded coach will make Ryan even less desirable for FF. With Julio Jones (4 rec. for 58 yards on 8 targets) on the roster, working in a dome, and playing in an easy division—they need a Gus Malzahn-type to ramp the offense. A greatest show on turf 2.0 thing…and that would be awesome for Ryan (for FF). Rumor has been the next coach could be Rex Ryan—a known QB killer, could be on the way. Not good for Ryan for FF if that happens.
Best Fantasy Football Keepers and Sleeper Picks-
— Kelvin Benjamin’s (1 rec for 9 yards on 5 targets) last five games: 4.2 catches for 48.0 yards and 0.2 TDs on 9.4 targets per game…he caught just 43.2% of his targets down the stretch.
I’m not the only one to mention that defenses have seemed to have caught up to Benjamin…and have reeled him in. He’s posted over 70 yards in a game just three times in his final 12 appearances.
A lot of experts thought that Benjamin would be one of the better NFL fantasy sleepers at the beginning of the year, and he started out strong. I think Benjamin is fine for FF ahead, with a slight hesitation that he is a one-trick pony, and not a savvy WR that will grow. Cam throws at him no matter what, so Benjamin will FF-produce OK, but I have a sneaky suspicion that his early 2014 splash is going to be as good as we ever get–not that he’ll go bad, but that the early ‘splash’ wasn’t really a sign of things to come…it was just a ‘splash’.
— This summer, I was hoping/thinking IDP Paul Worrilow (7 tackles, 3 solo) would hit 160-200+ tackles this season. He will finish with only 143 tackles…4th best among all linebackers.
A new season of “Play The Draft” is coming in January 2015. Look for our FFM contest and prize package to be announced soon. ‘Play The Draft’ website
— I’m not sure what got into IDP DT Star Lotulelei (7 tackles, 2 sacks), but it was a welcomed sight for the Panthers…he had a career high for tackles in a game, and his first sack(s) of the season. You have to go back eight games to find seven tackles for him, before this seven tackle outburst against Atlanta. He has been a mild disappointment for the Panthers until this week. I don’t think this is the start of something for the future.
— Early contender for the #1 Dynasty Rookie Draft pick in 2015? Whomever the Falcons draft to play RB in 2015. Todd Gurley is too poetic (Georgia star goes to Atlanta), but If South Carolina RB Mike Davis goes here…watch out!
– R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM
This piece will not focus on NFL player news, but rather NFL team news. New England, Denver, Indianapolis, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh have all clinched playoff births. Week 17 will determine the final playoff team in the AFC and seeding 2 - 6 as New England has already clinched the top seed. The Chargers, Chiefs, Ravens and Texans all have a shot at making the playoffs, so who will the final team be?
The Chargers have the best chance at the #6 seed because if they win, they are in. They will be traveling to Arrowhead which is a tall task in December, but they will be playing a Chiefs team that will be starting Chase Daniel (not exactly and NFL fantasy starter) at QB and has been decimated by injuries on the defensive side of the ball.
The Ravens have the next best shot at a playoff birth. They have to win at home against the Browns and third string Rookie QB Connor Shaw (fantasy football pickup in deep leagues?) and have the Chargers lose to secure the #6 seed.
The Chiefs and Texans are the long-shot teams to get in. The Texans need the Chargers and Ravens to lose to get in and the Chiefs need the Ravens and Texans to lose to get.
Going by the percentages, the Chargers have the best chance to earn the #6 seed, but I have a feeling the Chargers will come up short in Arrowhead and the Ravens will earn the final playoff spot in the AFC. The Chiefs and Chargers played in Week 17 last year as well and the Chiefs were a missed field goal away from eliminating the Chargers from playoff contention. The Chiefs have a lot more to play for this time around and should be able to come away with a win in one of the loudest stadiums in the NFL. If the Chiefs do win, I see the Ravens easily taking care of business against the Browns and earning the #6 seed in the AFC.
It should be a great Week 17 in the NFL and anything is possible with some of the upsets that have occurred throughout the season. Don't be surprised to see the Texans or Chiefs make the playoffs this year but my money is on the Ravens earning the sixth and final seed in the AFC and being a tough out in the playoffs one of the contenders.
- Austin Becker - Fantasy Focus
QB Fantasy Football News -
Andrew Luck
Andrew Luck fantasy owners had all the confidence in the world as the Colts travelled to Dallas to take on a Cowboys pass defense that specializes in giving up yards and touchdowns. The Cowboys had allowed 6 passing touchdowns from Weeks 12 to 14, but that was the last piece of good news for fantasy owners. The Cowboys ran wild over Luck limiting him to 109 yards passing, two picks and no touchdowns. It got so bad that the team yanked Luck, inserting veteran Matt Hasselbeck into the game who managed the Colts only score of the game.
Mathew Stafford
Another big name fantasy QB who did nothing on championship week was Mathew Stafford. Stafford didn't do much better than Luck. He threw for 243 yards and 2 interceptions against a diminished Chicago Bears defense. Keep in mind that the Bears gave up 6 passing touchdowns combined during the last two weeks to Tony Romo and Drew Brees. Fantasy owners were expecting some production from Stafford, but that was definitely not the case during Week 16. Stafford underperformed in week 15 against the Minnesota Vikings and has not been his usual self this year from a fantasy standpoint – so this underachieving performance is nothing new for Stafford owners.
Aaron Rodgers
One of the leading MVP candidates, Aaron Rodgers, didn’t have such an MVP type performance during week 16 against a bad Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense. The Bucs were ranked 22nd against opposing fantasy quarterbacks but Rodgers didn’t look his normal self. He threw for 318 yards, 1 touchdown and did unfortunately lose a fumble. This was definitely a better stat line than Luck and Stafford – but was not the MVP type performance fantasy owners were looking for. There are still some playoff implications next week for the Packers so look for Rodgers to be more productive at home against the Detroit Lions at home come week 17.
Peyton Manning
And wow what has happened to Peyton Manning? In negative QB fantasy news, Manning played atrocious in week 16 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Somehow the Hall of Fame quarterback managed to get picked off 4 times – that’s right 4 times! Let’s give credit where credit is due though, the Cincinnati Bengals have played tremendously over the past two weeks, forcing 6 interceptions from the likes of Johnny Manziel and Peyton Manning. There is light at the end of the tunnel for the Broncos and Manning as they will face a dreadful Oakland Raiders defense ranked 25th against opposing fantasy football quarterbacks. Look for Manning and the Broncos to get back on track next week.
For the latest QB news, stay tuned to Fantasy Focus!
- R.C. Fischer - Fantasy Football Metrics
Fantasy Waiver Wire Pickups -
SS Bradley McDougald, Tampa Bay
The 2013 undrafted free agent has clawed his way into the starting lineup the last two weeks. I wasn’t sure whether to believe his Week 15 game was real (15 tackles, 11 solo), but he followed that up with 9 tackles, 8 solos, and a PD last week. He’s averaging 12.0 tackles per game the past two weeks.
He is a mediocre athlete (thus undrafted), but is a very instinctive, high-effort player. He began his college career (Kansas) as a WR, but then moved to DB. In his final two college seasons, he posted 90+ tackles each year.
Watching him on tape the last two weeks has been encouraging—smart movement to the ball, and playing 100% each play. Look for him to make a run at double-digit tackles this week.
LB Christian Jones, Chicago
The rookie IDP out of Florida State has been playing more for the Bears in the 2nd-half of the season. However, what is attention getting is his last two games. Two double-digit efforts—13 and 11 tackles respectively (12.0 per game) in the past two weeks makes him one of the more popular fantasy pickups this week.
Jones is a solid, not spectacular prospect, but he is getting a ton of snaps of late, and has been producing. He projects for another big game in Week 17.
CB Dontae Johnson, San Francisco
Dontae Johnson is a terrific athlete who is starting to pull more time at CB for the 49ers as the season comes to a close. He was a 4th-round draft pick in 2014 out of NC State. He’s a big, physical CB…like a Safety/Cornerback hybrid. He’s 6’2”, 200+, and runs a 4.4+ 40-time. He was not thrown at much in his senior season, but still posted 81 tackles with three interceptions in his final college campaign.
Over the last three weeks, he’s been playing more…and producing more. 5.7 tackles and 0.3 PDs per game in that span. This week he faces Logan Thomas…who should cough up a couple of turnovers…and Johnson might be in on one (or more) of them.
- R.C. Fischer - Fantasy Football Metrics
NFL Trends
DEN-CIN
— From Weeks 11-16, Peyton Manning was the 20th ranked Fantasy PPG (4pts per pass TD) QB, just behind Mark Sanchez. How the mighty have fallen! If Denver gets bounced in the first-round of the playoffs, then I think the odds Peyton retires is like 30-70…and that will send shockwaves through many Dynasty/Fantasy entities (Demaryius, Julius, Sanders, et al).
— Jermaine Gresham has 4 TDs in his last five games. His yards and reception counts have been so-so (until MNF), but he is scoring TDs. In the critical game in Week 17, he is a suddenly hot TE option.
JAC-TEN
— HOU is still in the playoff hunt, and faces JAC at home this week. Blake Bortles is going to get destroyed by the Texans defense that has its secondary healthy again—plus that Watt guy.
— It hasn’t mattered all FF-year, BUT Bishop Sankey could take 15+ touches against an Indy defense that has nothing to play for this week. Antonio Andrews probably sees some time too.
PHI-WAS
— I would be FF-worried that Mark Sanchez gets the start, and then Matt Barkley then comes in quickly—or at least playing the 2nd-half. Philly has nothing to play for in Week 17.
— Zach Ertz catch counts in each game since Sanchez took over, before his 15 catch game in Week 16: 1-1-4-4-0-2-1. Week 16 was a blip…plus you might have Matt Barkley a lot in Week 17. Be careful of the trap of looking at last week alone with Ertz.
— Silas Redd fell off in the ‘Roy Helu role’ in Week 16, and there was a move to Chris Thompson as the RB target guy—Thompson had 3 targets, Redd zero last week. Thompson would be an option for deep NFL fantasy sleepers for PPR in Week 17.
SD-SF
— Honestly, I missed this. I watched SD-SF, and thought Colin Kaepernick had some huge, splashy game. He broke the long run in that game, which was FF-cool, but did you know he had just 114 yards passing with 1 TD/0 INT. Even in an offensive explosion, he's an awful passer and a far cry from the list of best fantasy football keepers.
— Dontrelle Inman could be the secret weapon against KC this week: 7 catches for 79 yards on 9 targets in Week 16, his debut…or he is is a weapon that gets ignored. Philip Rivers has shown before that he’ll stick with his tried and true guys.
— FYI, the best RB the Chargers had Saturday…Ronnie Brown. He might take a shock amount of work Week 17.
MIN-MIA
— Damien Williams: 6 catches for 50 yards and 1 TD on 6 targets in this game. Those are obviously nice numbers, but I was impressed with the way he was catching the ball. I never noticed how nice a receiver he was. My bad. Nice hands. He could be a Week 17 sleeper on more carries to go along with this growing role in the passing game.
— IDP Dion Jordan…memba him? He had 5 tackles and 1 sack last week…a sign of life for the former #3 overall draft pick in 2013.
— Charles Johnson catch counts since his Week 11 ‘breakout’: 3-2-4-5-3. Man, do I wish the Vikings would go to another level with Cordarrelle Patterson.
BAL-HOU
— Torrey Smith 10 TDs in his last 11 games. How much has he raised his pending free agency value? Honestly, he has really not done much more than be ‘the guy on the field’. I haven’t seen him taking tops off defense or dominating opponents—I’ve just seen him open as Steve Smith gets a lot of coverage heat.
— Justin Forsett’s last three games rushing numbers: 13.3 carries for 46.0 yards (3.5 ypc) per game.
— IDP D.J. Swearinger is supposed to be a big tackle producer, but in his last six games: 4.2 tackles per game.
DET-CHI
— After several weeks of being inactive, or barely used…Reggie Bush took over the lead role early in the game last week: 7 targets, 6 catches, 98 total yards and 1 TD. He’s back to ‘normal’ (whatever that means) for Week 17.
— Last two weeks for IDP rookie LB Christian Jones: 12.0 tackles per game as a starter. He’s got nice odds of 10+ tackles again this week. I’m not a huge fan long-term, but he’s working right now.
— After racking up five 100+ yard games from Weeks 4-10, Golden Tate has not hit the century mark in his last six games. He’s been under 65 yards in three straight games.
CAR-CLE
— IDP DT Kawann Short in the last three weeks: 3.3 tackles, 0.7 sacks per game
— IDP rookie CB Pierre Desir in his first heavy playing time Week 16: 7 solo tackles, 2 PDs
— I have not trusted Jonathan Stewart since DeAngelo Williams went down, but in his last four weeks: 19.5 carries, 109.3 yards, 5.6 ypc per game. I was the fool. Foolish because I love Stewart, I’m just so used to holding an empty bag with him. I back on his side, which means he’ll have one of his limbs ripped off on the first play this week.
— He missed a game, and had a BYE, but from Weeks 11-16…Cam Newton has been the highest scoring (PPG) QB in Fantasy (4pts per pass TD)—22.8 PPG.
ATL-NO
— Jacquizz Rodgers took the majority of carries with Steven Jackson down in this game, but I’ll take Devonta Freeman for FF-output in Week 17. Freeman out-gained Rodgers 84-32 yards in this game.
— I’d be worried about anything Saints-related on offense this week. I can’t imagine Drew Breeswill play much, if at all this week. Anyone normal would sit Brees in Week 17, but if I know the NFL…he’ll play most of the game risking the entire franchise’s future.
TB-GB
— The last two weeks of IDP Safety Brad McDougal: 12.0 tackles, 0.5 PDs per game. This has developed out of nowhere. He started out in college (Kansas) as a WR, but moved to Safety and racked up 182 tackles in his final two seasons. He has bounced around the NFL a little, but has made a splash the last two weeks. He’s a solid, not special athlete, but has great instincts and is a willing tackler.
— Charles Sims last three weeks of rushing yards in games: -4, 34, -1. He is averaging 2.4 yards per carry. I told you…
He is a solid receiver at RB, though.
— Josh McCown’s last five games: 4 TD/7 INT…10 TD/13 INT on the season. It is criminal that he is still playing QB for Tampa.
A new season of “Play The Draft” is coming in January 2015. Look for our FFM contest and prize package to be announced soon. ‘Play The Draft’ website
KC-PIT
— Last three weeks for Albert Wilson: 4.0 rec. for 69.7 yards on 6.7 targets per game. He is becoming more integrated each week.
— The last five games of catches for Martavis Bryant: 2-1-4-3-1 (2.2 per game). He’s rapidly becoming Terrance Williams for FF.
— Shock number: How many times has Jamaal Charles rushed for 100+ yards this season? How about…once. Week 11 against Seattle. Just one rushing TD in his last five games as well.
NE-NYJ
— In his last nine games, IDP Jamie Collins is averaging: 8.3 tackles, 0.8 stuffs, 0.2 Forced Fumbles. Every time I looked up at this game…Collins was in the middle of the action.
— If Rob Gronkowski or Tom Brady steps foot on the field in Week 17, I will absolutely lose my mind.
— Assuming the Pats play Week 17 as a preseason game, Jimmy Garoppolo is a decent play, and Brandon Bolden is one of the best fantasy sleeper picks as well.
— IDP Calvin Pryor with more playing time Week 16: Nine tackles in this game (but only 3 solo).
NYG-STL
— Rookie NYG IDP Devon Kennard over the past six games: 5.7 tackles, 0.8 stuffs, 0.3 Forced Fumbles per game. He’s a deep sleeper IDP for Week 17.
— Finally, Kenny Britt makes me look good after getting excited about his situation weeks ago…and it’s also happening once I gave up on him. He had a career high 9 catches for 103 yards in this game. Thanks!!
No thanks against Seattle this week.
— Rookie NYG IDP Kerry Winn the last two weeks: 5.0 tackles, 0.5 sacks, 0.5 PD, 0.5 INTs per game.
BUF-OAK
— Buffalo’s run defense is terrific, as we all know. The Bills had a ton to play for in Week 16.Latavius Murray ran like a boss against them. He is going to be a star—and thus, our computer scouting models are genius. You thought we were crazy ranking Murray as a #1-2 RB in the 2013 draft class with Le’Veon Bell?
We’re only about two weeks away from College Football Metrics opening for 2015!! Can you believe it?
— This game marks Sammy Watkins having three or fewer catches in five of his last six games, and under 75 yards receiving in six of his last seven. He did score a TD for the first time in seven weeks.
— IDP Miles Burris the last six weeks (much of this with Sio Moore hurt): 7.2 tackles per game, and 13 tackles in this contest.
IND-DAL
— It is possible Zurlon Tipton will get 15-20+ touches in Week 17. After all, he was the top Indy RB last week!! It was in garbage time.
If they announce he is starting this week, you know…I’m all in for Week 17. I don’t place Tipton on a level with a Latavius Murray. I just think he is really good (one of the best in the 2014 NFL Draft), and is more talented on anyone on the Colts right now.
— Donte Moncrief is one of the most overrated WRs from the 2014 NFL Draft. He’s OK, but football analysts act as if he is up with the top guys in the class. He’s been a joke when Indy most needed him this season. In the last three games: 5 catches on 11 targets for 38 yards…total in all three.
— Terrance Williams drives me nuts. He has 0-2 catches in a game in nine of his last 10 games, and 11 of his last 13 games. He has yet to hit 80+ yards in a game this season. He does have 8 TDs this season…on his 34 catches YTD.
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SEA-ARI
— These are the kind of moves that matter…
The #1 Fantasy scorer (4 pts per game) in total FF-points from Week 9-16 is…Russell Wilson.
He was also #1 in Fantasy PPR (4pts per pass TD) from Weeks 11-16, among those QBs who did not miss a game (Cam was 0.1 higher in PPR but missed a game with injury).
All these time ranges were at the same time I was proclaiming Wilson as your only hope to take down Luck-Rodgers for the future in Dynasty. Guess what? He took them out this year down the stretch. He single-handled saved many of our Fantasy seasons.
Hey, we do the best you can in the draft leading into the season, but this makes two years I have delivered some major gifts to you at QB mid-season: Foles last year, Wilson this year. Those who took my draft advice of two QBs before others get their first…if your 2nd one was Wilson…how’d that work out? Guess, not taking that 3rd RB in the 7th-round of a redraft worked out after all!
— Let me just say this: If Logan Thomas starts, and plays a full game, he will get sacked a minimum of 5x. I wish he was playing a DST that needed the Week 17 game, because then he might go down 10x.
— Sure, now Luke Willson does something. I cry about him on and off for two years, to no avail, but as soon as I strike him from my mind—two TDs and 139 yards this week. It’s a blip—he only had three targets. There is no uprising here, as much as I’d like to see one.
– R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM
