Fantasy Waiver Wire Pickups -
1. RB C.J. Anderson, DEN:
Rookie C.J. Anderson's breakout game now makes the Broncos backfield situation much more difficult to predict. Anderson had a very impressive performance in Week 10 picking up 163 total yards and 1 receiving touchdown on 17 touches. With Ronnie Hillman listed as day-to-day, Anderson may only have to compete with Montee Ball for touches. Ball is still recovering from injury, so Anderson could end up being the lead back by default. If Anderson can string together another solid showing, he could potentially retain the starting job. The rookie tailback has an advantageous matchup ahead of him as he and the Broncos take on an up and down Rams defense, which is 25th in the league allowing 124.2 rushing yards per game. Anderson is one of the best fantasy pickups in all formats as a possible RB2 with high upside and value in keeper leagues.
2. TE Mychal Rivera, OAK:
After being virtually non-existent for the first 7 weeks of the season, second-year tight end Mychal Rivera has put together 3 straight solid performances (a combined total of 21 catches, 185 receiving yards, and 3 touchdowns). A week ago, reports stated that the Raiders considered Rivera a key piece of their offense, as QB Derek Carr continued to get him involved against the Broncos in Week 10. Rivera has shown his ability to put up decent numbers, and to find his way into the end zone, but his production ceiling is limited by the lackluster Raiders offense. Rivera can be added as a touchdown-dependant low-end TE1 in standard fantasy formats.
3. QB Mark Sanchez, PHI:
Mark Sanchez showed Monday night that given the right opportunity, he can lead an offense to victory. In his first start in nearly 2 years, Sanchez and the Eagles destroyed the Panthers 45-21. The former New York Jets QB had 20 completions for 332 yards, adding 2 touchdowns and 0 turnovers in the one-sided affair. He and wide receiver Jordan Matthews connected for both scores, as they were already very comfortable, after building rapport in the second unit. Look for them to continue to play well together, and for Sanchez to begin to utilize the rest of his weapons (Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, Brent Celek, etc.) as they get more time on the field in coming weeks. Sanchez should be added in all formats, as he is already a QB2 with QB1 potential.
4. RB Terrance West, CLE:
It looks as though Terrance West has regained control over the Browns backfield, and in turn could be worth a look in most fantasy leagues. To say that he carried the bulk of the workload is an understatement. He received 26 carries in Cleveland's Week 10 win over the Bengals. West turned those 26 carries into 94 rushing yards and a score, as Cincinnati had no answer for him. West and the Browns will take on an easy opponent in the Texans defense, that ranks 21st in allowing 117.3 rushing yards per contest. Terrance West is worth an add as he can be used as a high-end RB2 this week and a solid RB2 going forward.
- RC Fischer - Fantasy Football Metrics
I’m guessing Carson Palmer is done for 2014, and you may or may not know…but I believe Drew Stanton is better than Carson Palmer, watching/scouting their preseason and regular season work. I’ll use him as a QB2 for BYE week/injury emergency needs. I’d also rather have Stanton than Mark Sanchez for FF-purposes.
— The Tampa Bay backfield is going beyond MAT-BACK (menage’ a trois backfield)…they’re headed into whatever clever thing I might think of for four RBs working in a stew of FF-confusion. I still Doug Martin is their main guy, but that will be mostly meaningless because the team is so embarrassingly bad. I suspect the whole Charles Sims hysteria will get a big time look the next few weeks…a hunch that the team tries to give proof for all the praise they’ve heaped his way. I don’t see it. Please, see your College Football Metrics scouting report for more info on why Sims is not likely a future star. Mike James is even getting specific situation touches (and has been successful as one of the better NFL fantasy sleepers). Here is a list of some trends in the NFL fantasy world.
— I know we all hate Torrey Smith, but he has 6 TDs in the last 7 games. Steve Smith has one TD in his last six games.
Best Fantasy Football Keepers -
— Colin Kaepernick is fading fast, and (surprisingly) the media is talking up that he may not be ‘the guy’ for the 49ers. His numbers are getting weaker and weaker each week. I wonder when Harbaugh leaves if this will be some serious QB chaos in 2015+.
— Charles Clay the past two weeks: 6.0 rec. for 55.0 yards and 0.5 TDs on 8.5 targets per game. He’s bumped back up to top-12 useful all the sudden.
— Jarvis Landry is right on the edge of being called ‘Ryan Tannehill’s favorite WR‘. Season high 7 catches/10 targets this week.
— Bryce Brown may have started the re-arrival process: 6 catches for 52 yards (and one goal-ine fumble) this week…and a very purposed attempt to get him the ball in the passing game. He also had 7 carries. This puts a ding in Fred Jackson’s PPR production. Spiller-FJax now becomes FJax-Bryce…and it will be tough figuring out how they will be used. Bryce was the #1 guy in this game once he started to pop…and it was the end of Anthony Dixon. FJax is always going to get work, but Brown can be so special…he might take a bigger bite than many expect.
— Cincy IDP LB Emmanuel Lamur in two full starts (with V. Burfict out): 9.5 tackles per game.
— If you didn’t already, you missed your ‘trade Hillman high’ window. It’s over. Montee Ball will be back this week, and who knows who will get carries one drive to the next, but it won’t be anywhere near enough for Hillman to matter for FF.
— Take away the one game IDP LB Danny Trevathan started, and IDP LB Brandon Marshall has averaged 9.1 tackles per game. He has 10 or more total tackles in two of his last three games.
— Mychal Rivera’s last three games: 7.0 rec. for 61.7 yards and 1.0 TDs on 9.3 targets per game…making him one of the top TEs in Fantasy Football all the sudden. He has been one of the best fantasy sleeper picks all season and is really starting to shine.
– This was the best possible WR-TE-RB group + best Head Coach…i.e best situation Jay Cutler could ever be in for his career, and he has butchered it (like all his other opportunities).
The only reason anyone would care about WR Brandon Marshall is because of Cutler, but this all appears dead. How exactly does Cutler turn this around to suddenly be good…when he never really has been, but for a flash earlier this year. As Cutler fades, so does Marshall to a 2nd or 3rd-tier WR. This could be the last season for Cutler in Chicago…he might even get the hook this season, but Chicago has no other viable QB of the future. This is going to be ugly considering $19M still due to Cutler, and no QB on the horizon right now.
The Bears management sold their soul to Cutler…and heads should roll for it. The football media has more angst for Andy Dalton and Alex Smith…but at least they get their teams to the playoffs.
– R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM
TE Fantasy Football News -
Martellus Bennett – Questionable (Night Game)
Martellus Bennett is no lock to play Sunday night against the Green Bay Packers and that is BAD NEWS for fantasy TE owners.
Bennett popped on Thursday’s injury report with sore ribs and has been practicing lightly ever since. To make matters worse, ESPN reports that the Bears have activated backup tight end Blake Anned off of the practice squad.
Did the Bears activate Anned as a precaution or did they do it because they know they are holding Bennett out of the game?
Bennett says he’s going to play, but that’s no guarantee that he will be active in tonight’s game. The Bears have been tight-lipped on Bennett’s playing status on Sunday morning, so fantasy football TE owners have an uncomfortable choice to make.
Owners can either pull the plug on Bennett for Week 10 and stick in a replacement or they can roll the dice, cross their fingers and hope that Bennett can take the field.
Sit
1. QB Eli Manning, NYG:
The Seattle Seahawks do not have the same rugged defense they had a year ago, but the team still allows only 221.9 yards per game through the air (ranking 6th in the category). This spells trouble for quarterback Eli Manning and his mediocre receiving corps who travel to Seattle for a Week 10 showdown. Manning is coming off a performance that looked much better on paper than it did in reality. He struggled to get anything going until garbage time came around, but finished with a line of 27 completions for 359 yards and 2 touchdowns. His wide receivers didn't help much, as Preston Parker had 3 drops and Reuben Randle dropped an important one on third-down. The combination of poor wideout production and one of the most hostile environments in the NFL makes Manning an ill-advised play for Week 10.
2. RB Lamar Miller, MIA:
Lamar Miller is listed as questionable for Sunday's road game against the Detroit. The Lions rush defense has been superb, ranking second in the league surrendering just 74 rushing yards per game. Miller is dealing with a sprained joint in his shoulder, but it appears as though he will be able to suit up for Sunday. Miller is playing well as of late, finding the end zone 5 times in his last 5 contests, but expect him to struggle heavily against the athletic Lions defense. Consider Lamar Miller a weak RB3 at best and find an alternative if possible.
3. WR Sammy Watkins, BUF:
Watkins is dealing with a lingering groin injury that could definitely keep him out of Sunday's matchup with the Chiefs. He hasn't been able to practice yet, so it seems more and more likely that they will hold him out. If by some chance he can suit up, he has a very tough opponent to deal with. Kansas City ranks first in allowing 199.4 passing yards per game and will key in on Watkins if he takes the field. The rest of Buffalo's targets are less than impressive (Robert Woods, Mike Williams, Scott Chandler), which will almost guarantee double coverage in the rookie's direction. Consider Watkins a risky WR3 even if he can play, but he's more than likely to sit this one out.
Start
1. WR Calvin Johnson, DET:
Megatron is ready to come back for Week 11, as Detroit's bye week allowed him to fully recuperate from multiple injuries (knee, ankle). Calvin Johnson has not played since leaving early during Week 5 and has not had a monster game since Week 1 (7-164-2). Johnson and his fantasy owners are hoping this will finally be his coming out party even though it's against a very impressive Dolphins defense. The veteran wideout will square off against a stout Miami defense that allows 201.1 passing yards per contest. However, couple his ability with the emergence of fellow receiver Golden Tate and the Miami defense could be in for a long day. Consider Megatron a top 10 wide receiver fantasy football start this week.
2. WR Martavis Bryant, PIT:
Martavis Bryant has been spectacular in only 3 weeks of play, catching 10 passes for 167 yards and 5 touchdowns. He has most certainly benefited from Big Ben's magnificent play as of late, but he may have secured a pivotal role in the passing game. The 6'4" rookie from Clemson has proved to be a solid target and is close to unseating Markus Wheaton as the wide receiver to start opposite Antonio Brown. Bryant's value is dependent upon his ability to get into the end zone, and the Jets defense should allow him to do just that. The New York Jets are 31st in the league in allowing 28 points per game. Expect Bryant to find the end zone and use him as a WR2 with upside for Sunday.
3. RB Ronnie Hillman, DEN:
Even with the possible return of Montee Ball, Hillman's workload will not diminish, as he has earned the starting spot in Denver's backfield. Hillman has been stellar as of late, rushing for 299 yards and 3 touchdowns (plus 1 receiving TD) in Denver's last 4 contests. The Broncos match up with the Raiders which should make it very easy for Hillman to maintain his 4.3 yards per carry, as the Raiders rank 27th in giving up 132.5 rushing yards per game. The Broncos will likely blowout the Raiders very early, causing them to run it out for the rest of the game. Consider Hillman a solid RB2 with upside for Week 10.
Stay tuned to ASL for the best fantasy sit start guidance.
Fantasy Injury Updates: After missing the last seven weeks with a knee injury, Ryan Mathews returned to practice this week and is fully expected to return to the Chargers starting lineup after the team's much-needed Week 10 Bye. Branden Oliver did a bang up job filling in for Mathews at first, but his production has fallen off dramatically.
The Chargers desperately need Mathews back in their lineup and he should provide both fantasy owners and the Chargers offense with a much needed spark as soon as he returns to the field.
Mathews has always been able to produce for fantasy owners when he's healthy, but that rarely seems to be the case as he is almost always a member of the NFL injury updates list on a weekly basis. When Mathews is actually on the field, he can punch it in from the goal-line and catch passes out of the backfield.
With Danny Woodhead out for the year, Mathews should get the majority of work out of the backfield. Fantasy owners have already started to notice that Mathews will be returning soon as he's owned in more than 50% of ESPN leagues and 71% of Yahoo leagues.
Mathews needs to be owned in all fantasy formats and will provide a big boost for fantasy owners who are battling through bye week and injury issues at the running back position. If Mathews can stay on the field and off of the sidelines, he should be able to carry the Chargers and fantasy owners into the playoffs as he's a low-end RB2 and high-end Flex play when healthy. Stay tuned to Fantasy Focus for the latest injury updates!
RB Fantasy Football News
LeSean McCoy and Jerick McKinnon fantasy RB owners got demolished during Week 9 thanks to the fantasy vultures that are not able to do anything except score touchdowns. McCoy posted an impressive stat line against the Texans gaining 123 all-purpose yards, but is was backup running back Chris Polk who scored the touchdown. Even worse was the fate of McKinnon owners who watched the rookie get them into the red zone 3 times only to have the lead-footed Matt Asiata vulture three scores while gaining a whopping total of 26 yards.
For the first month of the season, it looked as if Asiata would be able to replace a percentage of the production that Adrian Peterson (constantly in RB news) was able to deliver. Certainly not as an RB1, but perhaps a serviceable flex option. However, during his last three games leading up to Sunday, Asiata rushed for a total of 20 yards, even going backwards in one contest to the tune of a NEGATIVE 5 stat line.
Enter McKinnon, a more promising talent to shoulder the ball-carrying load. While Asiata was stuck in the mud, McKinnon put up games of 40, 103, and 83 yards, and is averaging 5 yards per carry on the season. On Sunday, he put up a respectable 54 yards rushing and 14 yards receiving. The problem is that McKinnon would have to bust off a huge run to get into the endzone because the coaching staff turns Asiata once they are inside the 20.
The biggest issue in discerning fantasy value for either player is that Asiata has scored his six touchdowns in only two games. If you guess wrong and give him a start when he fails to hit pay dirt, then you’ve crippled your roster for that given week. McKinnon could be a potential flex, but he may only give you 5 or 6 points, because he is NOT given a chance to finish the drives he helps move down the field.
In this space last week, we discussed the conundrum of LeSean McCoy: great player, not so great season. Well, this week against the Texans, Philadelphia needed every bit of McCoy’s 117 rushing yards in light of Nick Foles going down with a broken collarbone. But, Shady didn’t score. Again!
At the 4:04 mark of the third quarter, and the game still in the balance, the Eagles got the ball at their own 30 yard line. Shady immediately ripped off runs of 14 and 26 yards. With the Houston defense on their heels, Chris Polk came in and finished the job, scoring on a run from eight yards out two plays later. This was a crushing sequence for those who stuck to their guns and started McCoy. He does Shady McCoy football moves we’ve seen time and time again, takes a breather on the sideline, and watches someone steal his touchdown away.
The game, as a whole entity, was encouraging. And, with Foles out for an indefinite amount of time, the Eagles will need McCoy to have consistent, hundred yard games. However, until he starts finding the end zone more often, Shady is still a flex option. It’s unfortunate, but true.
For the best RB fantasy news, stay tuned to ASL's fantasy blog!
- RC Fischer - Fantasy Football Metrics
Fantasy Waiver Wire Pickups -
LB Anthony Hitchens, Dallas
With all the injuries the Cowboys have suffered at linebacker, rookie Anthony Hitchens was installed as a starting OLB/LB in Week-9, and accounted for himself well (again). In Week-3, Hitchens had 13 tackles in his other extended play of the 2014 season. This week, he led all Cowboys in tackles with eight. He also had a TFL and a QB Hit accredited as well. Watching him on tape in this game, I liked what I saw: Hitchens is quick to make decisions, and finds alleys to slice through the middle to deliver solid hits to ball carriers. He's aggressive and agile.
In college, at Iowa, Hitchens had back-to-back 100+ tackle seasons in 2012 and 2013. He led the Big Ten in total tackles in 2012. He went on to be a 4th-round pick by Dallas this season. He measured with average speed (4.7+) and agility at the NFL Combine. He's not an all-world athlete, but he's instinctive and energetic. Whatever he is, he's going to start for Dallas from here on in...so he should give you some respectable numbers as needed.
LB Jeremiah George, Jacksonville
Heading into Week-8, we penned this nugget: Now, this is a deep-sleeper IDP...
Originally drafted by the NY Jets in the 5th-round this season, LB Jeremiah George was eventually released to add WR Walt Powell (the single stupidest WR-related personnel decision by the Jets in 2014...not Percy Harvin). Our computer scouting models ‘liked’ George, but I ‘loved’ what I saw on tape in college and in the preseason. George was created to be a Middle Linebacker. He plays 150% at all times, and has an excellent ability to slice through traffic and blow up a RB or WR coming out of the backfield.
During 2013 with Iowa State, George was 1st in the Big-12 in total tackles and 10th in the nation with 133 tackles in 12 games (11.1 per game). Consider, George had just two tackles opening day 2013 against Northern Iowa…which means he averaged 11.9 tackles per game against his D1 schedule last college season.
The Jaguars stud ILB Paul Posluszny was lost for the season last week, and journeyman/backup LB J.T. Thomas is projected to start in place of Posluszny, and he's OK, but George is better (we feel). I assume George will be active this week, and if he gets in on some plays...there may be no turning back.
He's either a ‘watch list’ guy, or Dynasty deep-sleeper stash to see what unfolds.
Jeremiah George was a surprise start at Middle Linebacker for Jacksonville in Week-9, and made some nice plays right away...and then tweaked his ankle in the 2nd-quarter, and did not return. His numbers, you ask? Three tackles (one for a loss)...in only 10 defensive snaps played.
I'm telling you he's going to be a double-digit tackle threat for IDP and the Jaguars if he stays healthy. He's still hidden because he didn't get to play all the way through his debut as a starter. Once he does get a full/healthy start, and has 10-12+ tackles in a game...it will be a mad dash for him on a waiver wire. Be ahead of the curve, but check his ankle status for this week first (it's been quiet on it so far).
LB Lamin Barrow, Denver
The Broncos have been fighting defensive injuries at the Linebacker position like the aforementioned Cowboys and Jags. The latest is Nate Irving lost for the season after the Patriots game. Everyone thought Barrow would be named starter this week, but Steven Johnson has been named by the team as taking over for Irvin...for now.
Barrow was a 5th-round pick this year for the Broncos, and is more of a true OLB prospect...he's a more a speed/agility player than power linebacker: Very good in coverage, and an 'OK' tackler. Some think the Broncos are trying to groom him as an ILB, which is even more interesting. He's quick (4.6+ speed), but needs to keep bulking up to play the middle (6'1"+, 237 at the NFL Combine).
Barrow has only played limited snaps so far this year, but will now start seeing more time...and if he plays well, he could steal that starting OLB job. He is definitely one to watch during the next few games.
Keep reading ASL for the most comprehensive info about fantasy pickups!
Fantasy Waiver Wire Pickups -
1. WR Allen Hurns, JAC:
Allen Hurns went off, going for 7-112-2, in Jacksonville's loss to the Bengals. The 22-year-old had his first huge game since Week 1, but this may help to get him more involved in the Jaguars offense. With rookie QB Blake Bortles still adjusting to the way of the NFL, Hurns may be someone he will start to rely on moving forward. Though Hurns has had some awfully bad ripped passes, Bortles has made some terrible throws, but they have both shown big-play ability when they are on the same page. Allen Hurns is the Jags most explosive WR, and he should continue to develop into one of his quarterback's top targets. Hurns' value is as a risky WR3, with major value in keeper leagues.
2. QB Mark Sanchez, PHI:
Mark Sanchez took over for the injured Nick Foles, and led the Eagles to a 31-21 win over the Houston Texans. The former Jets QB threw for 202 yards, 2 TDs and 2 interceptions in less than 3 quarters of action. Sanchez will most likely be the Eagles' starting quarterback for the rest of the regular season, and could thrive given this opportunity. Though he has not proven himself as an NFL quarterback, Chip Kelly's offense is putting him in a position to succeed. With Jeremy Maclin, LeSean McCoy, Jordan Matthews and Riley Cooper at his disposal, Sanchez can be expected to put up high-end QB2 numbers in standard fantasy formats.
3. RB Charles Sims, TB:
Charles Sims is a must-add at this point, as he could be the feature back in Tampa Bay as soon as next week. It's difficult to gauge his value, as the third-round-rookie has yet to play an NFL game, but the hype surrounding the young tailback is difficult to ignore. Former Bucs feature back Doug Martin has already taken a backseat to Bobby Rainey, and Sims could definitely come in and lead that RB committee almost immediately. His running style, in addition to his pass-catching ability, will allow him to get a decent amount of touches against the Falcons Week 10, and they should increase tremendously going forward. Sims is worth a start at RB3 immediately, with a high ceiling of high RB2 status.
4. WR Kenny Britt, STL:
Rams wide receiver Kenny Britt came down with a line of 2-32-1 on 4 targets, as the Rams beat the 49ers on Sunday. Britt has immediately benefitted from the season-ending shoulder injury to Rams WR1 Brian Quick, and he should be expected to be QB Austin Davis' number one target in Quick's absence. Britt's upside is high as he has proven in years past with his ability to make big plays, which is exactly what St. Louis needs. Britt could easily take off in the latter half of this season, leading the team in targets, catches, yards and/or receiving TDs. Kenny Britt should be added as an immediate WR3 with the ability to shoot up to a high-end WR2.
Stay tuned to ASL for the latest fantasy pickups all season long!
- RC Fischer - Fantasy Football Metrics
Never doubt Tom Brady and Bill Belichick.
My big lesson from this week: It’s fun to making sweeping judgments of teams week-to-week, early in the season (or anytime in the season). Constantly reading the tea leaves to find the strand of DNA to prove a point…comparing who they beat prior, and what teams the teams they beat…beat prior, etc. It’s neat fodder. It is mostly a meaningless exercise. The Patriots aren’t dead. The Saints aren’t dead. The Seahawks weren’t the best team in football. The Bengals weren’t the best team in football. The Chargers weren’t the best team in football. The Cowboys weren’t the best team in football. The Broncos aren’t dead either.
Teams with elite QBs and best fantasy football keepers are never ‘dead’. Teams with really good, but not elite QBs, hit hot streaks…that fizzle eventually, but heating up down the stretch…those non-elite/very good QBs could win a Super Bowl. In the end, elite QBs answer the bell more times than not. The six-win teams right now: Foles, C.Palmer, Brady, Big Ben, Peyton, Stafford, and Luck likely to join them tonight. Where are Brees, Romo, Rivers, and Rodgers? Either leading their division or are a game back. You don’t think Stafford and Palmer belong with the other QBs on the 6+ wins YTD list? Give it some time…their teams are more likely due for that ‘hot streak’ comeuppance. It’s amazing how simple, and maddening it is: QB means everything.
Why a trend doesn't happen of every NFL team carrying 4-5 QBs in hopes of finding ‘the one’ (or two) is beyond me…especially the teams with garbage at QB.
QB Fantasy Football News -
Many questions will be answered when Robert Griffin III, ex-stud fantasy QB, takes center stage in Minnesota today against a very vulnerable Minnesota Vikings defense. The most important one will revolve around how well he is he able to move on the field and whether or not he will be ale to run the ball. For RG3 to be at his best, he has to have his astonishing quickness and stunning mobility. Without those two game-changing attributes, he is nothing more than a flat footed disaster.
The Redskins offense has been a mess all season long and many hope that RG3 is the ticket to turning that around. There’s certainly been some division in the locker room since Griffin went down during Week 2 with a dislocated ankle and landed himself in QB fantasy news for his injury.
There’s no question that RG3 is an upgrade over Kirk Cousins and Colt McCoy IF he is healthy, but even after practicing this week, few people know what to really expect.
If Griffin isn’t close to 100 percent, there will be loud and furious calls to reinstate Colt McCoy. RG3 is far from a traditional quarterback and is NOT going to be successful hanging back in the pocket looking for open receivers. His best chance for success is to be his run and gun self and that will only happen if his ankle is really able to stand up to the test.
Stay updated on QB news with Fantasy Focus.
