The “sleeper” is dead. Every intelligent fantasy football analyst has been saying this for years, but it might finally be sinking in. Grantland’s Bill Barnwell had an excellent take on “sleepers” in his column last week. As he pointed out, it’s virtually impossible to predict which players are on the precipice of a breakout, in the mold of Odell Beckham Jr, C.J. Anderson or Justin Forsett from last season, because a lot of that has to do with factors outside of their control like injuries and playing time. So if identifying prototypical “breakout” candidates ahead of time isn’t an exact science, where should fantasy owners invest their late round selections?
Fantasy Focus
Despite Carolina’s ugly 7-8-1 record, the Panthers won their Wild card playoff game before losing to the Seahawks in the divisional game. It was a bit of a disappointment from their 2013 campaign but Cam Newton and his crew will be looking to take the weak NFC-South title once again. They are a very good defensive unit but their offense has quite a bit of weak spots. Cam Newton has some nice weapons to throw too but there is a lack of depth on the roster. The offensive line is also extremely thin which may be a problem especially for the running game. Jonathon Stewart running behind a weak line does not bode well. The Panthers could very well lose their division-title if their offense regresses from 2014.
This week on Fantasy Focus, the sleeper search arrives at defenses. To be honest, it’s difficult to give fantasy updates on a sleeper on defense because, after the first couple, most defenses are interchangeable. Sure, somebody in your draft might go for the Seahawks D in the 6th round, but you can wait until the penultimate or even the last round to snatch up a defensive unit. While you could get proper value by drafting an elite defense in the 9th or 10th round, the small difference in value between the 1st and 10th ranked fantasy defenses means that you can wait until a bit later for even more value. So this week, we highlight some defenses that, while likely not “sleepers” per se, deserve an extended look.
- Ajallades Hennis
Fantasy Focus
We examine a few interesting training camp and preseason fantasy updates from around the NFL...
Fantasy Focus
Last season was a roller coaster ride for the Chargers. They started 5-1 then lost three straight, including 37-0 loss against the Dolphins. The Chargers followed up with three straight wins to improve to 8-4. They then dropped three out of their last four to fall to 9-7 and failed to make the playoffs. The 2015 season shouldn’t be any easier for the Bolts as 8-time Pro Bowl tight end, Antonio Gates, will be suspended for the first four games. On the bright side, the Chargers drafted running back, Melvin Gordon, with the 15th pick in the draft and Peyton Manning didn’t exactly look like himself toward the end of last season. With some good luck and good performances from Rivers and Gordon, the Chargers could make a push for the division.
Fantasy Focus
Last season the Washington Redskins had the worst record in the NFC East. This is the second season in a row for the Redskins, only improving by one game, earning the team a 4-12 record. However, how did a team that was at the top of the NFC East in 2012 fall so quickly to the bottom? The answer points to injuries and inconsistency in the coaching game. This season, the Redskins look to get back on top with a healthy starting lineup.
Going into a Points Per Reception draft without doing PPR specific research can ruin a fantasy season. Especially at the running back position, it is crucial to pay attention to who’s draft stock isn’t inflated by PPR scoring. We took a look at which fantasy RBs to stay away from.
Value. It’s all about value. It’s a cliché, but it’s true. You can’t open a draft strategy piece or general player analysis piece these days without hearing it, which is refreshing, but it also makes it harder to win your league when everyone is trying to employ the exact same strategy. I’ve talked about a key element of auction strategy (it applies for snake drafts as well, but please, do an auction) which is comprised of assembling a target list before the draft, so you have a general idea of who you believe best represents a “value” given what they are projected to produce and how the general public values that same player.
Fantasy Focus
After a crushing playoff loss the season prior, the Kansas City Chiefs were hoping to go back to the playoffs in 2014. Unfortunately, Andy Reid’s team dropped four of five games after starting the season 7-3. The Chiefs finished with an underwhelming record of 9-7 and failed to reach the postseason. With the addition of Pro Bowl WR Jeremy Maclin, the Chiefs believe they’ve solved their offensive problems and can get back to the playoffs in 2015.
Running back is arguably the most important position in your draft. Odds are you will be picking a running back in the first round, but considering the risky, fickle nature of the position, you will probably need to find good backs deeper in your draft or perhaps off the waiver wire. The deeper your league, the harder it is to find a good back. With that in mind, here's an array of running backs, ranging from guaranteed starters to unsigned backups, all of whom have the potential to provide good relative value thanks to other owners sleeping on them.
