What a season. It feels like just yesterday we were doing mock drafts, and now we’re in the final week of fantasy football. Week 16 was brutal for a lot of managers—especially the teams that needed Sunday night miracles from Lamar Jackson and TreVeyon Henderson, only to see both knocked out early. If you’re still reading, though, you must be playing for the championship. Congratulations on making it all the way.
It’s been a pleasure writing all season, and I truly appreciate everyone who has come back each week for help setting their lineups. Let’s set them one more time and finish the 2025 season the right way. Hopefully I can make your Christmas a little more enjoyable by helping you bring home a championship.
Starts
QB – Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@ MIA)
This late in the season, you want a quarterback who has to go out and win games for his team. The Buccaneers still have a path to the playoffs, but they need to win out, and that urgency matters. Mayfield has had an up-and-down season, but the matchup and the stakes make him a strong play this week.
Mayfield opened the year hot, throwing for 200+ yards and multiple touchdowns in four of his first six starts, but it has been rough sledding lately. Over his last six games, he’s topped 200 passing yards only once, and he’s gone over one passing touchdown just once in that span. Still, this matchup is exactly the type that can get him back on track. The Dolphins have allowed the seventh-most passing touchdowns while recording the sixth-fewest interceptions, and quarterbacks have posted a 105.6 passer rating against them—third-highest in the league. Expect Mayfield to land in the top-10 range this week.
RB – Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans (vs NO)
Yes, I’m doubling down. Tony Pollard makes the starts list for the second straight week because he has been rolling for three games in a row, totaling 367 yards and three touchdowns over that stretch.
This time of year, incentives absolutely matter. Players care about them, and they care about their stats. Pollard is 51 yards away from his fourth straight 1,000-yard rushing season—something fewer than 20 running backs in NFL history have ever done, and plenty of those names are in the Hall of Fame. Pollard may not end up with a gold jacket, but there isn’t a running back alive who wouldn’t want to hit that milestone.
The matchup helps, too. The Saints have struggled against the run, allowing the 11th-most rushing yards and 12 rushing touchdowns this season. The Titans’ offense has also been trending in the right direction as Cam Ward improves. I expect this to be an entertaining game between two teams near the bottom of the league, and I expect Pollard to stay productive. He’s a strong flex this week.
WR – Jakobi Meyers, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ IND)
After getting a big late-season payday, it was a quiet Week 16 for Meyers: four catches for 45 yards. With $20 million per year coming his way, expect Jacksonville to keep him involved as they close out the season.
His weekly floor has been very comfortable over the last six weeks, with at least four catches and 60 yards per game during that stretch. That steady usage, plus his red-zone involvement (three touchdowns in his last five games), makes him a strong start. The matchup is favorable as well—Indianapolis has allowed the fifth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this season. This divisional game could turn into a high-scoring one, and Meyers should continue to see a strong target share. He’s a solid WR2 in PPR leagues.
TE – Colston Loveland, Chicago Bears (@ SF)
After watching multiple tight ends put up absolute duds in Week 16—Travis Kelce with one catch for six yards and Jake Ferguson with three for 19—it’s clear that a steady floor matters more than ever. That’s why Loveland belongs in lineups this week.
He’s widely available because the ceiling isn’t massive, but the involvement has been steady for a long time now. Loveland has at least three catches in 10 straight games. He has cleared 40 yards in five of those, and he’s scored four touchdowns during that stretch. Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but in a championship week you cannot afford a one-catch disaster. If you can lock in something like four catches for 40 yards, you take it—and that’s exactly the type of stat line Loveland is positioned to deliver. If you need a tight end for the title, he’s a strong choice.
DST – New York Giants (@ LV)
Over the full season, the Giants have been a rough fantasy defense, sitting near the bottom of the rankings and the league’s worst statistical categories. But they’ve actually shown up against bad offenses, and they’ve done it two weeks in a row—five fantasy points against the Commanders in Week 15, then a boom game against the Vikings in Week 16 with four sacks, two takeaways, and a defensive touchdown.
At this point, a lot of these guys are playing for their jobs, and that matters late in the year. They go to Las Vegas to face a Raiders offense that has been a mess all season. The Raiders are averaging 173 passing yards per game (fourth-fewest in the NFL) and have thrown 16 interceptions (fourth-most). The Giants should have plenty of chances to get pressure, force mistakes, and deliver another usable fantasy score. I see them as a top-10 option this week.
Sits
QB – Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (@ BUF)
You hate benching the guy who helped you reach the championship, but it makes sense to keep Hurts out of your lineup this week. The Eagles locked up the division last week, so there’s a real chance they play a more conservative game and lean on the run.
They also walk into a brutal matchup against Buffalo. The Bills have allowed only 167 passing yards per game (second-fewest in the NFL) and have given up just 17 passing touchdowns (fourth-fewest). If this were a must-win game, I’d be more willing to ride with Hurts. But with the division secured and the playoffs already in hand, the situation and matchup are both pointing toward a lower ceiling. In championship week, find a quarterback who has a softer matchup and something to play for.
RB – Breece Hall, New York Jets (vs NE)
The Jets’ best offensive weapon picked a terrible time to hit a slump. The offense has been rough all season, but Hall has still managed to be a top-20 fantasy back overall. Lately, though, he’s faded badly, totaling just 120 yards over his last three games while averaging 2.9 yards per carry. The touchdowns haven’t helped either—just one score in his last five games.
Now he gets a Patriots front that has allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards this season. Hall has been a strong player this year, but that doesn’t mean you force him into your lineup in the championship. He’s been under 50 rushing yards six times already, and I think this week makes it seven.
WR – Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (vs JAX)
Before the Week 11 bye, Pittman looked like he might flirt with a top-10 fantasy finish. Then the injuries piled up for the Colts, and everything started to slide. The last five weeks have been mediocre, and it’s been even worse since Philip Rivers took over. During that stretch, Pittman is averaging about 35 yards per game, and he has fewer than five catches in three of those games.
Rivers played his best game on Sunday night in Week 16, but Pittman saw only five targets on 35 pass attempts. These late-season games can be tricky, especially once teams lose their playoff motivation—and the Colts were officially eliminated on Sunday. In a meaningless contest, I’m not expecting a bounce-back. I’d look for a safer option.
TE – Travis Kelce, Kansas City Chiefs (vs DEN)
Kelce has been dominant for most of the year, and even with the recent dip he’s still the TE4 on the season. But with the Chiefs out of the playoffs and Patrick Mahomes not under center, I don’t see a high-end outcome in this spot.
Kelce said he intends to play the rest of the year, then followed it up with one catch for six yards. That’s now two of his last three games with only one catch for fewer than 10 yards. Tight end has been volatile for years, but you simply cannot take a one-catch risk in the championship. Find a tight end on a team that needs a win and has a more stable passing situation.
DST – Detroit Lions (@ MIN)
A few weeks ago, this would have looked like a fine late-season flyer. Now, it’s simply too risky. The Lions are dealing with injuries all over the roster, and the fantasy production has been awful. Over the last five games, this defense has posted negative fantasy points four times.
On paper, this matchup looks like it should be manageable, but we’ve said that before. The Giants game in Week 12 looked like a good spot too, and Detroit still went negative. Over their last five games they’ve been allowing 31 points per game, and when they played the Vikings back in Week 9 they gave up 27. Even with the “good matchup” label, I’m not trusting this unit with a championship on the line. Find a better defense.
