- RC Fischer - Fantasy Football Metrics
Fantasy Waiver Wire Pickups -
LB Telvin Smith, Jacksonville - We mentioned Telvin as a deep sleeper several weeks ago, but a new wrinkle has developed. We scouted him as an excelled cover OLB, but had not seen as much from him as a heavy tackle-count type for a linebacker. For much of this game, Smith was one of two ILBs for the game. He played like a poor man’s Mychal Kendricks—speed, aggression, leading to lots of action/output…and his numbers followed suit. During Week 12 against Indy, Smith posted 13 tackles—an NFL career high, and it’s the most tackles he’s had in a game looking back on his years at Florida State as well. Because of the Jags’ excessive linebacker injuries and under-performance—Smith is getting more and more playing time. When you play defense for Jacksonville, you will see a lot of time on the field every week. If he starts playing more ILB, then he's going to be a 10+ tackle a game guy.
Smith is a sensational athlete for a linebacker, a high 4.4s/low 4.5s runner who was fantastic as a coverage OLB in college. He really could be a terrific Safety as well as OLB. Smith is going to see the snaps, and it is starting to rack up Fantasy-IDP output: 8.0 tackles per game over his last three games. You like the tackle counts, but might also get PDs and picks with this talented cover guy. The only think we see that could derail this is if rookie IDP Jeremiah George comes back from his minor injury, and jumps back in as a main ILB. I’m not sure if that will happen now (George is a deep, deep IDP sleeper as well).
CB Desmond Trufant, Atlanta - We rated Desmond Trufant as the best CB prospect in the 2013 NFL Draft, and he has played decently in his two seasons for a young CB, but he might be really coming into his own of late. During his last two games, Trufant has picked off a pass in each contest and posted two PDs in each game as well. He’s had at least one PD in seven-straight games, and at least one PD in all but one game this season. Trufant is a shutdown CB talent. He’s one of the best, if not the best cover corner I’ve scouted coming out of college in the past couple of drafts. The IDP fear is teams start moving away from taking chances at him, but we don’t think he’s there yet. During Week 13, Trufant draws Drew Stanton, and an offense that will take a ton of shots down field—I love the odds that Trufant comes down with a third-straight game with an interception this week.
CB Darryl Morris, Houston - Morris saw more time in Week 12 due to the injury to Kareem Jackson, and he responded with 10 tackles and 3 PDs. He was pitted against A.J. Green a lot…and Green had a great game, but Morris made some nice plays as well…not bad for a UDFA, backup CB taking on an NFL elite wide receiver. They picked on him, and he was not bad. Morris was working his way into more playing time earlier this season, but he got nicked up and missed a few weeks. In the last two games where Morris has seen heavier playing time, he has 14 tackles (7.0 per game) 6 PDs (3.0 per game) and an interception. He gets FF-numbers because he will get picked on due to his inexperience/status. Morris is a tremendous athlete—he’s a 4.3+ runner with terrific agility. He went undrafted out of Texas State in 2013, but caught on with San Francisco, and was making noise in training camp…eventually working his way up off the practice squad to the active roster as a rookie. He was released in a number’s game, and scooped up by Houston—and is now working his way from unknown player to key DB. The longer Kareem Jackson is out, the more snaps Darryl Morris is apt to see…and FF-numbers he can give you in the short-term.
For the most comprehensive analysis on fantasy pickups, stay tuned to ASL all season long!
Fantasy Waiver Wire Pickups -
1. RB Latavius Murray, OAK:
Murray took his opportunity and ran with it last Thursday, as he turned 4 carries into 112 yards and 2 touchdowns during his first start. The Raiders beat the Chiefs to end their 16 game losing streak and the team's rookie tailback put on quite a show in the first half.. He was forced from the game in the second quarter after sustaining a concussion when he took a big hit on his fourth carry of the game. He has until Friday to gain clearance for Oakland's road contest with St. Louis, and will more likely than not retain the job as their feature back. The Rams' rush defense ranks 19th in allowing 115.8 rushing yards per game, and Murray should be able to exploit them significantly. Murray can be added and started as a decent RB2 if he is able to suit up.
2. RB Isaiah Crowell, CLE:
Crowell has solidified himself as the starting halfback, after putting up a line of 12-88-2 in Cleveland's win against Atlanta on Sunday. He has proved to be more effective than fellow RB Terrance West, and following the releasing of Ben Tate, Crowell has nothing to worry about in terms of playing time. Crowell has rushed for an average of 5.73 yards per carry in his last two games, and as the Browns fight to get atop the tough AFC North division, the team will look toward him to make big plays down the stretch. With little uncertainty left in the backfield, Crowell can be added as a solid RB2 with upside and as a low RB1 going forward.
3. WR Stedman Bailey, STL:
Bailey had a strong performance in the Rams' loss to the Chargers, turning 7 catches into 89 yards and a touchdown. Bailey received a team-high nine targets (tied with TE Jared Cook) from QB Shaun Hill, and could be developing into the quarterback's new favorite target. This was Hill's second start at quarterback since taking over for Austin Davis, and he and Bailey's improving rapport could prove to be beneficial for both sides, especially for fantasy owners. Ever since stud WR Brian Quick went down, the Rams have been searching for others to replace his stellar production, and Bailey could be their guy. The 24-year-old slot receiver can be added as a WR3 for now.
4. RB LeGarrette Blount, NE:
After signing him just 3 days earlier, LeGarrette Blount rushed 12 times for 78 yards and 2 touchdowns as the Patriots destroyed the Lions, 34-9. Blount capitalized on the benching of Jonas Gray for arriving late to practice, and may have solidified a role within New England's running game. Fellow halfback Shane Vereen took 8 carries for a mere 12 yards, which gave Blount more chances to re-define himself as a valuable member of the Pats offense. With Gray possible still in Coach Belichick's doghouse, Blount should continue to get carries as the power back for the Patriots. Blount can be one of the more intriguing fantasy pickups as an RB2 with upside as a goal-line threat.
- Austin Becker - Fantasy Focus
RB Fantasy Football News
So the carousel that is the Broncos backfield continues to go round and round. The latest running back to grab the starting spot is C.J. Anderson and he may very well be the cream of the crop.
The young fantasy RB had 27 carries for 167 yards while averaging 6.2 yards per carry against a stout Miami Dolphins that gave the Broncos all they could handle. He was also efficient in the passing game, hauling in all four targets that came his way for 28 yards. Another stat popping off the sheet is that over the course of the last three weeks, Anderson leads the NFL with 473 all-purpose yards in front of the Chief’s Jamaal Charles and the Buccaneers Mike Evans.
The pre-season hype for Monte Ball is long gone now and there’s no reason to waste a roster spot on him. Another running back that had the starting position was Ronnie Hillman who has been struggling with injuries of his own. This left Anderson in the driver’s seat and his fantasy value is skyrocketing through the roof.
The Broncos have been looking for a back that’s going to stay healthy and who is primed to give them steady production ever since the departure of Knowshon Moreno. Anderson seems to be the best candidate to help the Broncos running game get back on track. Look for him to stay in the RB news.
Anderson was likely an unknown name to fans outside of Denver before the season, but now he is someone who you really need on your team. The 23-year-old was an undrafted free agent that the Broncos signed in 2013 and he is making someone in Denver’s front office look like a genius.
Even if Ronnie Hillman and Montee Ball return for Week 13, Anderson should be considered a low end RB1 with nothing but upside. The amount of carries Anderson received during Week 12 were the most for any Broncos running back since Moreno had 37 carries against the New England Patriots during Week 12 of the 2013 season.
For insight into this and other RB fantasy news, stay tuned to ASL!
- RC Fischer - Fantasy Football Metrics
If you watched the Houston vs. Cincinnati game, I hope you were tipping your figurative (literal is fine too) cap to me. I’m not wrong about QBs…and ta-da: Ryan Mallett has now been revealed as a fraud. He was never ‘the answer’ for Houston and was never close to being on the list of best fantasy football keepers. If you haven’t already, start getting your Tom Savage Dynasty stashes together…as I advised two weeks ago (and back to June 2014). Here is a list of some trends in the NFL fantasy world.
— Isaiah Crowell had the TDs, but Terrance West won the carry-count tally 14-12. Both are decent, but maddening, non-PPR RB options week-to-week.
— Time to start taking rookie IDP Telvin Smith a little more seriously. One of our ‘deep NFL fantasy sleepers’ a couple of weeks ago, he posted 13 tackles/10 solos. I look forward to re-watching this game to see if he was playing ILB a bunch…and thus may stick at that position rest of 2014 given the Jags ILB issues (he is an OLB by trade).
— Andrew Hawkins is very much in play for a PPR Flex option week-to-week, and is one of the better sleeper picks for this week. The Josh Gordon factor helps him a ton; it does not hurt him for output. When Hawkins is not drawing heavy coverage he is free to roam, and allows Brian Hoyer just hit him with simple passes he can ‘catch & run’ with.
— I’ve been making excuses for Reggie Wayne in my mind for weeks. I tend to have a bias against veteran players, but Wayne is still a very good NFL WR…and works with a top QB—all things good for Fantasy. I tried to be sure not to have a bias. However, he looked slow and clunky in this game…and has looked that way a lot recently. I’m about ready to jump ship of being favorable to him.
— Dan Herron was more favored than Trent Richardson in their Week 12 game —just like Ahmad Bradshaw was. It looks like Herron is the Colts RB to have now…just assume he is ‘Bradshaw-lite’ going forward. He’ll hold that until (if) Zurlon Tipton gets his shot.
— If Blake Bortles is not the worst QB in the NFL, I’m not sure who is.
— I love the way Jerick McKinnon is working on the field, but the stink of Norv Turner’s offense clings to him for FF-purposes. He’s never going to get TDs in this terrible 2014 offense.
— I knew Matthew Stafford was fading, but 13 TD/10 INT thrown in 11 games this season…wow.
— I buy LeGarrette Blount as the power RB for the Pats for the rest of 2014, a RB who is more talented than Stevan Ridley or Jonas Gray.
– Kenny Britt’s stat line will look like crap, but he had a 50+ yard TD catch stolen from him on a pathetic penalty on the O-Line, having nothing to do with anything. He lost his TD catch, and thus lost the Rams’ momentum that was about to knock the Chargers out early.
— Another week, another Russell Wilson 70+ yard rushing effort. He’s done so in five of his last 8 games, and three-straight. Just as I have been harping on: He’s usually giving you 7 to 17 Fantasy points per game with his feet before you start looking at the passer totals.
— Another week, another low output in the 2.0s for yards per carry for Andre Ellington. When Arizona fades to end the season, they’ll blame Drew Stanton, but they should look at the RB management…and the total collapse of Michael Floyd.
— Considering how badly Odell Beckham Jr. humiliated the Cowboys pass defense. What do we think Jordan Matthews might accomplish against them on Thanksgiving Day? Or when they play again two weeks after that? Mark Sanchez suddenly has a little more value watching Eli Manning not-struggle with Dallas.
— Last week, RG3 died to me along with all mobile-QBs, and then I was surprised that the same sentiment hit a few in the national media as well last week. This week, I’m totally over Jay Cutler. I was never a huge fan, but I bought into Trestman + awesome WRs = Cutler FF-good. Umm, no. It’s cliché, but true…Cutler is the most ‘sad sack’ QB in the NFL. No more benefit of the doubt in 2014 from me. No more ‘he might’ thoughts in a great matchup. I’ll just assume he’ll disappoint and then raise half an eyebrow if he tosses 3 TDs. Two Detroit matchups the next four weeks…no thanks.
– R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM
RB Fantasy Football News
It looks like fantasy RB stud Arian Foster is well on his way to sitting out another game for the Houston Texans. Foster missed last week’s game giving rookie standout, Alfred Blue, a chance to breakout in Cleveland where he rushed 36 times for an astounding 156 yards.
Now fantasy owners get to see if Blue’s big day was a fluke or a sign of things to come as the Texans play host to one of the worst rush defenses in all of football, the Cincinnati Bengals.
The fact of the matter is that Blue was a beast in college and there’s no reason to believe he won’t lay waste to the Bengals during Week 12 if he can get the carries. Blue is an old school ground and pound type of runner who welcomes contact on every snap and has the potential to break off huge chunks of yardage.
Another backup runner who had a fantastic Week 11 and made our RB fantasy news was the Patriots Jonas Gray. He stunned a national audience last week when he shredded the Indianapolis Colts defense for 201 yards and 4 touchdowns on the evening.
He was certainly the hottest waiver wire pickup in fantasy football last week, but expecting Gray to put up numbers anywhere close to what he did last week would represent a serious error in judgment.
Gray was just the primary chess piece in Coach Bill Belichick’s game plan to keep the Colts offense and Andrew Luck off of the field. The Patriots will have a much different game plan during Week 12 against the Detroit Lions, a team that boasts one of the toughest run defenses in the NFL.
Expect New England to feature more Shane Vereen and much more Tom Brady against the visiting Lions. Gray should be viewed as a RB2/Flex option who should at the very least get the majority of goal line work against the Lions.
Keep up with the latest RB news with ASL!
Start
1. WR Josh Gordon, CLE:
Gordon is finally back from his suspension and is seemingly ready to pick up right where he left off. A fantasy superstar from a year ago, Gordon had a record breaking year, going for 87-1,646-9 (breaking 100 yards in 7 games) in only 14 games. As the Browns are fighting for a spot in the playoffs, they will be relying on their star wideout to help them get there. Coach Mike Pettine stated that Gordon would be limited to a snap count, but that should not deter fantasy owners from starting him for Week 12, as Cleveland takes on Atlanta's league-worst pass defense (allowing 281.2 passing yards per game). Josh Gordon is a must fantasy football start as he makes his return to the field for Sunday's contest.
2. WR Mike Evans, TB:
Rookie Mike Evans has arguably been the hottest wide receiver as of late, going for 21-458-5 in his last 3 games combined. Evans surpassed veteran Vincent Jackson as the number one wide receiver for Tampa Bay, and seems to be the only offensive player producing on a weekly basis. He has completely taken over the offense, and has a favorable matchup ahead of him as the Bucs head to Chicago to take on the Bears. Chicago ranks 25th in allowing 256.4 yards per game through the air, and last in surrendering 29 points per game. Coming off the best performance of his young career (7 catches for 209 yards and 2 touchdowns), the young stud should be expected to keep the ball rolling as he continues to make a name for himself.
SIT:
1. RB Marshawn Lynch, SEA:
Lynch is coming off back-to-back solid performances (21-140-4 and 24-124-0), but will have a difficult time continuing that high level of play against a stout Cardinals defense. Arizona ranks 3rd in surrendering 80.4 rushing yards per game, while also ranking 2nd in allowing a minuscule 17.6 total points per game. Marshawn Lynch has had a strong showing in what may be his last season in Seattle, but this bump in the road could be significant, coming at an inopportune time for the middle-of-the-pack Seahawks. Expect Lynch to put up low RB2 numbers as he will struggle to get things going.
2. RB Alfred Morris, WAS:
Alfred Morris is coming off a solid game where he rushed for 96 yards, and added 36 yards from his two receptions. However, he most likely won't be able to put up a second straight solid performance, as he and the Redskins square off against a very tough 49ers run defenes. Morris has a tough task ahead of him against a San Francisco rush defense that ranks 6th in the league allowing 88.6 rushing yards per contest. With the spotty and erratic play of Robert Griffin III, Morris will struggle to find open running lanes. Consider Morris nothing more than a middling RB2 for Week 12.
For more fantasy sit start advice, stay tuned to ASL!
RB Fantasy Football News -
For a minute, it seemed like the Minnesota Vikings were in full panic mode. Adrian Peterson was basically suspended for the remainder of the year and out of nowhere, the Vikes signed free agent Ben Tate out of Cleveland.
Matt Asiata (concussion) and Jerick McKinnon (back) are both in RB news, dealing with injuries, but signing Tate seemed to be a bit of a mystery until Coach Norv Turner cleared things up when he stated the McKinnon is still the team’s lead back and that Tate was an insurance policy back.
“Obviously, we’re in a situation where we had one back that could practice, so the timing of (Tate) being released and the opportunity for us to add a back, certainly it was good timing,’’ Turner said.
McKinnon returned to practice on Thursday and stressed that he was in no danger of missing the team’s Week 12 matchup against the visiting Packers. The bad news is that Green Bay is scoring points so quickly, that team’s are abandoning the run game shortly after kickoff.
Asiata is carrying a doubtful tag coming into Week 12 and Tate will need some time to get familiar with the playbook. McKinnon is the only viable fantasy RB option this week and Green Bay does allow 4.5 yards per carry.
ASL has the latest in RB fantasy news - stay tuned!
- Austin Becker - Fantasy Focus
QB Fantasy Football News -
Broncos quarterback Peyton Manning has been in the league for far too long to let a few mediocre games get deep under his skin, but there are certainly times when his frustration is impossible to miss. So who is this interception throwing imposter and what has he done with the real fantasy QB stud Peyton Manning? Dare we say the golden boy is not looking so…golden at the moment? Well, let’s not go too far with the acquisition, but yes, it’s apparent that Manning is throwing more interceptions than usual.
In QB news, Manning had only succumbed to tossing three interceptions through the Broncos first seven games. Now compare those first seven of games to his last three games where he has thrown an outstanding six interceptions as if he was the second coming of Brett Favre!
However, this is Peyton Manning we are talking about and fantasy owners should not show any signs of concern or even think about benching him. Manning has thrown for at least two touchdowns in every game except one this season. If that doesn’t impress you, Manning has thrown for more than 250 yards in eight out of ten games thus far.
Manning and the Broncos are also struggling with significant injuries right now. Emmanuel Sanders is going through the NFL's concussion protocol, Julius Thomas has an ankle issue and all of his starting running backs are out for at least the next two to three weeks. At this point, the team is going to be relying on Manning’s arm even more than usual.
So fantasy owners, yes Manning is suffering through a little rough patch right now and throwing some uncommon interceptions, but let us take a step back and let Peyton Manning do what he does best, and that's score you fantasy points for you and win you games. Keep reading our QB fantasy news on Fantasy Focus for updates.
- RC Fischer - Fantasy Football Metrics
Fantasy Waiver Wire Pickups -
DE Jeremiah Attaochu, San Diego
Attaochu is the Chargers’ 2nd-round (#50) draft pick out of Georgia Tech this year. Some scouts rated Jeremiah Attaochu as a late first-round prospect/talent, but he missed the NFL Combine battling a hamstring injury. In his young NFL career, he has been nicked up as well and has missed some games of late. The fact is that he has not been fully, consistently healthy to build/grow into more playing time this season. However, he was back in the lineup as of last week…and had a couple of tackles, and a timely sack of Derek Carr late in the Chargers narrow win over the Raiders.
Why I would mention Attaochu now? It's not because he is a high draft pick coming back into playing time, but it’s more that he is a terrific pass rusher…and he could jump onto IDP radars quickly (in sack favorable scoring systems). In his final two seasons in college, he posted double-digit sacks (10.0 and 12.5) each season…and was a general menace on every play. He is insatiable trying to get to the QB.
Working with the current Chargers’ D-Line, Attaochu might have a Connor Barwin-esque run of sacks as he gets more playing time…a guy who isn’t discussed as a top pass-rusher, but you look up and suddenly he is getting sack totals in bunches.
LB Christian Kirksey, Cleveland
Karlos Dansby is going to miss a few weeks with injury, and Kirksey is a guy who can fill right in and put up equivalent numbers. Last week, when Dansby left early…Kirksey had nine total tackles. Back in Week 7, against Jacksonville he posted nine tackles as well. In his final three seasons at Iowa State, he averaged over 100+ tackles per season. He is a tackle accumulator. He’s a solid athlete, but has an above-average feel for the game. He might give you multiple games with double-digit tackles while Dansby is out. He is one great option out of the short term fantasy pickups available.
DB Ron Parker, Kansas City
Parker is really starting to come on for KC, even with Eric Berry back. With Berry’s return, Parker has been playing more Cornerback, and in the past two weeks, Parker has averaged 9.5 total tackles and 1.5 PDs (three in his game vs. BUF). Prior to Week 11, he had a PD in five straight games. Because of his inexperience, QBs are going after him…so his PD counts should be solid. In 10 games played this season, he has seven or more tackles in five of them.
Parker is a terrific athlete out a small college (Newberry). He is a 4.4+ runner (clocked in the 4.3s at a Pro Day) with great burst and agility in a 205-pound, 5’11”+ frame. He is a very willing tackler with a nice wingspan to reach after ball-carriers in space, or deflect incoming passes.
He is a 4th-year player who has bounced around, mostly with Seattle who had a log jam of DBs and couldn’t keep him. He’s found a home in KC…playing CB with a Safety mentality.
– R.C. Fischer is an NFL Draft analyst for College Football Metrics.com, and a football projections analyst for Fantasy Football Metrics.com. His group also provides player projections for Advanced Sports Logic’s football software “The Machine.” See “The Machine” here: The Machine via FFM
Fantasy Waiver Wire Pickups -
1. WR Kenny Stills, NO:
Saints wide receiver Kenny Stills has seen a spark in value as fellow wideout Brandin Cooks will be out for 2-4 weeks with a thumb injury. Stills put up a solid showing last week, going for 4-32-1 against the Bengals. He's likely to be much more involved in the Saints offense as the season comes to a close. As their WR3, he is next in line to start opposite WR Marques Colston, and should still be left open due to defenses focusing on superstar tight end Jimmy Graham. Stills has shown the ability to use his speed and quickness to make big plays, but will now have more opportunities as his snap count is sure to increase drastically.
2. TE Coby Fleener, IND:
Colts tight end Coby Fleener's stock is on the rise as starting TE Dwayne Allen has sustained an ankle injury, and could possibly miss next week's contest with the Jaguars. Fleener's rapport with former college teammate, and now Colts QB Andrew Luck showed as the two connected on 7 passes and 144 yards. After Allen went down, Fleener was the focal point of their offense as the Patriots defense was purely focused on stopping T.Y. Hilton. Fleener's role in Indy's offense should be present in the weeks to come as he is a reliable check down for Luck, and he can be added as a middle-of-the-pack TE1 in standard leagues. If available, Fleener is one of the better fantasy pickups around.
3. RB Jonas Gray, NE:
Jonas Gray exploded into the fantasy picture as the Patriots thrashed the Colts, making the term "breakout performance" an overwhelming understatement. The 24-year-old newly relevant New England running back took 38 carries for 199 yards and 4 touchdowns. However, his expectations should be tempered as this is only one impressive showing he's ever had, and against a weak rush defense. Immediately, he should be viewed as a RB2 against the Lions very stout rush defense, but has a major upside as an important piece to the Patriots offense.
4. WR Jarvis Landry, MIA:
Landry has been a solid contributor in Miami for the last 3 weeks, and his role in that offense makes him an intriguing add in fantasy leagues. He's coming off a 5-46-1 line as the Dolphins took down the Bills, scoring a touchdown for the second time in 3 games. He managed to turn the ball over in special teams against Buffalo, yet made up for it by making a nifty move at the goal line to get into the end zone on the very next drive. His rapport with QB Ryan Tannehill is only growing stronger and this could bode well for his value for the end of the season. Consider Landry a WR3 for the next couple weeks, especially in PPR leagues.
