- Brian Murphy
Last week, I wrote about a few players whom you should think about adding to your fantasy team even though they aren’t playing in the majors right now. I regretted not mentioning Julio Urias in that article, but that’s OK because I can devote a full writeup to him here. But first, a short story.
In 1980, an unimposing, 5-foot-11 lefthander from Mexico named Fernando Valenzuela made his debut for the Los Angeles Dodgers at the age of 19. He didn’t allow an earned run in 17.2 innings that year and followed that up in 1981 by becoming the first player to ever win the Rookie of the Year and the Cy Young awards. He began that season by posting five shutouts and allowing just two earned runs through his first seven starts. He ended it as the best player on a World Series champion. Through it all, Valenzuela was so beloved by Los Angeles’ large Latino – specifically, Mexican – community, his starts became must-see events. The craze was known as “Fernandomania.”
Thirty-five years later, there’s another 19-year-old, 5-foot-11 lefty from Mexico ready to become the Dodgers’ next phenom.
That’s Urias, a pitcher whom MLB.com has listed as a top-10 prospect two years running. He has done nothing to second-guess that ranking this season as he has a 1.25 ERA and a 39:8 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 36 innings at Triple-A Oklahoma City. He threw six no-hit innings in a start earlier this month.
Urias does compare slightly to Valenzuela as a pitcher, but that doesn’t mean he will throw a bunch of shutouts right away – it’s a different era. However, Urias pitches with more power and better control. His career K-to-walk rate through more than 250 minor league innings is better than 3:1. Scouts have marveled at his feel for pitching at such a young age, and there was a belief that Urias was MLB-ready last year, at the age of 18, when he was baffling mature hitters in Double-A. Even at age 16, Urias was striking out more than 11 men per nine with a sub-2.50 ERA and a WHIP barely over 1.10. He is a player well beyond his years.
Urias has a full repertoire of pitches, too. A mid-90s fastball, an excellent changeup, a developing curveball and a slider. He can throw all of those pitches for strikes and spot them on different horizontal and vertical planes. His combination of age and stuff has led to comparisons with not so much Valenzuela, but Felix Hernandez.
The only obstacle in Urias’ way to Chavez Ravine is the Dodgers’ own rotation. It’s deep and bound to get deeper once Hyun-jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy return from injury. However, the Dodgers’ bullpen is much more of a question mark, and there could at least be an important role for Urias in there very soon. He’s proven everything he can in the minors; it’s time for a promotion. Although a middle-innings gig may not sound sexy to fantasy owners, Urias’ strikeout potential and control could be a boon for teams that need to improve in the ERA and WHIP categories.
But, thinking optimistically, we could get even more than that out of Urias. The Dodgers’ rotation depth isn’t exactly overflowing with talent – at least not the type of talent Urias brings to the table. OK, Clayton Kershaw and Kenta Maeda aren’t going anywhere. But Scott Kazmir has largely struggled this year, and there’s not special about neither Alex Wood nor Ross Stripling. Plus, how can you assume that Ryu or McCarthy will pitch like their previous selves following major shoulder and elbow surgery, respectively?
Whether the Dodgers want some more high-end talent in their rotation or someone to help bridge the gap to closer Kenley Jansen, Urias can wear either hat and miss plenty of bats while doing it. L.A. will protect him from throwing too many innings, but I think we will see him in the majors before July. We know he’s ready now. Maybe it won’t be like “Fernandomania,” but how about “U-phoria”?
- Brian Murphy
Finding players that can help your team immediately that others might miss is never easy. Check out these four players.
- Brian Murphy
The 2014 class of wide receivers spoiled us. Amari Cooper was the only 2015 newcomer to finish in the top 30 WRs. Let's look at these four 2016 rookies.
Some players changed teams, others stayed put. We examine five whose values -- and wallets -- changed during the offseason.
Alshon Jeffery
Alshon Jeffery led the Chicago Bears in receiving yards last season. Jeffery caught 54 out of 93 targets, for 807 yards and 4 TDs. With an average of 89.7 yards per game, Jeffery is one of the top picks for free agency. Though Jeffery only played in nine games due to nagging injuries last season, the Bears recognized the value of Jeffery, and used the franchise tag on the veteran receiver. Jeffery will look to earn around 14.5 million next season.
Marvin Jones
Marvin Jones signed with the Detroit Lions for a five-year, $40 million deal. With the loss of Calvin Johnson, the Lions are in need of a #1 WR. Jones is looking to fill that position. Last season Jones received for 816 yards and 4 TDs. His numbers will likely go up with QB Matthew Stafford under center and a renewed Detroit offense for this coming season.
Travis Benjamin
Last season Travis Benjamin became a breakout star in Cleveland. Benjamin caught 68 out of 124 targets for 966 yards, and 5 TDs. Taking advantage of the best season of his career, Benjamin looked to capitalize on his free agency. The San Diego Chargers, in need of a deep threat receiver, signed Benjamin to a four-year, $24 million contract.
Rishard Matthews
The Tennessee Titans signed Rishard Matthews to a three-year, $15 million contract. As the #2 WR in Miami, Matthews will gain an updated receiving role with the Titans. Matthews received for 662 yards and 4 TDs, with an average of 60.2 yards per game last season. The receiving threat will greatly help second year QB, Marcus Mariota, giving the offense much needed support next season.
Mohamed Sanu
Despite receiving for only 394 yards and 0 TDs, Sanu was able to sign a five-year, $32.5 million contract with the Atlanta Falcons. In Atlanta, Sanu will support Julio Jones, but will benefit from the fast-paced, pass heavy offense. The move for Sanu is an upgrade, not only in pay, but also in playtime opportunities.
Running backs remain truly important in fantasy football and everyone loves rookies. Therefore, we look at five rookie running backs fantasy football owners should keep track of heading into 2016 drafts.
Ezekiel Elliott
Ohio State’s Ezekiel Elliott was the first and only running back selected in the first round of the 2016 NFL Draft. It wasn’t hard to believe that Jerry Jones and the Dallas Cowboys pulled the trigger on the big-name playmaker with the fourth overall pick.
Elliott became a household name because of his performance in the 2015 College Football Playoff National Championship game. He amassed 246 yards and four touchdowns on 36 carries. Elliott was named the MVP.
Elliott will enter the NFL after rushing for more than 1,800 yards in back-to-back seasons as a Buckeye. His 23 rushing touchdowns led the Big Ten and ranked third in the nation last season.
The Cowboys and Elliott may be a perfect match. The Cowboys averaged 118.1 rushing yards per game in 2015. However, their backfield was headlined by Darren McFadden and Joseph Randle. This goes to show that the Cowboys employ one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. In fact, they sent three offensive linemen (Tyron Smith, Zack Martin and Travis Frederick) to the Pro Bowl last season. With the addition of a generational talent, the Cowboys’ rushing attack could be the NFL’s best in 2016.
Derrick Henry
After much debate on where he would land, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner was selected by the Tennessee Titans in the second round (45th overall) of this year’s NFL Draft.
Henry was astonishing in 2015. He rushed for 2,219 yards and 28 touchdowns, both tops in the country. In the College Football National Championship game, Henry gained 158 yards and scored three touchdowns.
The power back will join a rushing attack that struggled mightily last season. The Titans ranked 25th in average rushing yards per game with 92.8. Antonio Andrews led the backfield with an uninspired 520 yards.
It’s still unclear how Henry will be used, however. In March, the Titans acquired DeMarco Murray from the Philadelphia Eagles in exchange for a fourth-round selection in this year’s draft. Murray averaged just 3.6 yards per carry last season and finished with 720 rushing yards.
After the draft, according to the Titans’ official website, Head Coach Mike Mularkey assured Murray that he was “still going to be the guy who is going to carry the load for us.”
At this point, Henry stands as a guy to stash on your bench. If Murray struggles, you better believe Henry will have every opportunity to cement himself as the starter. If not, Henry could establish a significant role in goal line situations. The six-foot-three-inch, 238 pound rookie is already one of the biggest running backs in the NFL.
Kenyan Drake
Kenyan Drake spent the last four years contributing to the University of Alabama. Last season, Drake served as Derrick Henry’s backup, amassing 684 total yards and two total touchdowns. These aren’t stellar numbers, but there are reasons why he was selected in the third round (73rd overall) by the Miami Dolphins.
During his four years at Alabama, while battling through a broken arm and leg, Drake averaged 6.4 rushing yards per game and 12.4 yards per pass reception. He served as a kick returner last season, averaging 26.6 yards per return. The biggest play of his career came in the College Football National Championship game. Drake returned a Clemson kickoff 95 yards for a touchdown.
At the NFL Combine, he ran the 40-yard dash in 4.45 seconds, third-best among running backs. Drake possesses six-foot-one-inch, 210 pound frame, giving him the ability to run with power.
After losing Lamar Miller to the Houston Texans, the Dolphins are desperately searching for a starting running back. Drake’s biggest competition will be Jay Ajayi, the second-year player out of Boise State. Ajayi averaged just 3.8 yards per carry last season.
Jordan Howard
Jordan Howard of Indiana University was selected by the Chicago Bears in the fifth round (150th overall) of the 2016 NFL Draft.
After transferring from the University of Alabama-Birmingham, Howard played one season for the Hoosiers. He totaled 1,213 rushing yards and nine touchdowns, averaging 6.2 yards per carry.
Howard is a powerful runner and led the draft class with 3.7 yards after contact. The biggest concern scouts have is Howard’s ability to stay healthy. Howard played in just nine games with the Hoosiers.
He’ll join a run-first offense with the Chicago Bears. The Bears rushed for 115.7 yards per game last season, ranking 11th in the NFL.
With the departure of Matt Forte, the Bears will likely give Jeremy Langford the first opportunity at securing the starting role. However, as we saw last season, Head Coach John Fox is not afraid to play rookie running backs. Jeremy Langford managed to carry the ball 148 times.
Devontae Booker
Devontae Booker will enter the NFL after just two seasons with the University of Utah. During his time with the Utes, Booker averaged 5.0 yards per carry and scored 21 total touchdowns. He was active in the passing game and possesses exceptional cutting ability. He did, however, fumble nine times in two seasons.
Booker was drafted by the reigning Super Bowl Champion Denver Broncos in the fourth round (136th overall). Last season, the Broncos only rushed for 107.4 yards per game, ranking 17th in the NFL. Neither C.J. Anderson nor Ronnie Hillman impressed enough to cement themselves as the team’s future starter. Hillman led the team in yards with 863.
Booker will get a great opportunity to showcase his skills, especially since the quarterback role is still uncertain. Just like last season, the Broncos will rely on their run game and their defenses to take them back to the Super Bowl.
- Brian Murphy
Champship-winning owners look deep. These players are not in the majors, but deserve your attention.
- Brian Murphy
It’s no secret that David Price has gotten some rotten results in his first season with the Red Sox. He has a 6.75 ERA through seven starts. He leads the league in earned runs allowed. The Yankees’ anemic offense has scored 12 percent of their season total in runs against Price just this month. So, what’s up and should fantasy owners do with Price?
Everyone wants to point to Price’s fastball velocity, which has averaged 92 MPH. He sat at just above 94 MPH last year, so the drop is clearly significant. Still, even after his two most recent starts in which he struck out a total of seven batters in 11.2 innings, Price is averaging 11.5 Ks per nine, way above anything he’s done previously. During his Saturday start in New York, he topped out at only 93.5 MPH, a career low, but let’s see if the strikeouts continue to diminish. In general, Price has shown this year that less fastball velocity isn’t keeping him from accomplishing one of a pitcher’s main missions: miss a ton of bats.
Price is still a high-quality starting pitcher. His FIP, xFIP and SIERA all say so as each one is less than 3.00. Obviously, some bad luck has played a major role in Price’s struggles. He owns a .373 BABIP and a strand rate (54.4 percent) that is 20 points lower than his career average. Those types of things tend to right themselves as the season continues.
However, I can’t put a pretty face on all of Price’s numbers. While his BABIP is very high, it’s not as if hitters are getting a bunch of cheapies off of him. Price currently has a hard-hit percentage of 41.2; he has never topped 30 in that category in his career. That number is very concerning and odd for the pinpoint craftsman Price is. Yet, entering Sunday, the only qualified starting pitcher with a greater hard-hit percentage was Chris Archer, at 41.4.
Archer is another ace who came out of the gates getting knocked around the yard. But in the past couple of weeks, Archer has returned to his previously brilliant form, allowing just two earned runs and only 17 baserunners over 18.2 innings. Thus displaying that sometimes those hard hits just don’t fall. They are falling against Price right now, but that should change.
I don’t think the permanent move to the American League East or the pressure of a $217 million contract are playing parts here either. Price often dominated this division late last year while on the Blue Jays. The Red Sox have said Price is healthy, so perhaps it all boils down to some unknown mechanics that need to be cleaned. But as long as the K rate stays up and the walks stay down, Price is going to rediscover his greatness.
Now would be a good time to see if you could buy low on Price. On Sunday alone, he has been dealt in Yahoo leagues for Bartolo Colon (twice!) Josh Harrison and Jordan Zimmermann, which seems like a perfect buy-low, sell-high trade.
I trust Boston’s words about his health, and even after more than 1,500 career innings pitched, I don’t believe the 30-year-old Price is over the hill. I am not that alarmed yet by the velocity dip. If he strikes out only 3-4 batters per start – as he’s done in his last couple – then I would become very worried. But Price is by and large getting plenty of whiffs and has the metrics backing him up to say that he is no way near this bad of a pitcher and should see his fortunes change in time.
In short, go get David Price. Getting walloped by the Yankees will certainly lower his market value. Buy low and benefit when Price, barring injury, inevitably turns his season around.
- Brian Murphy
Who are the new guys? Here's a quick rundown of what to expect from the 1st QB and RB rookies.
Some quarterbacks improved their outlook by changing teams. Others were helped by changes around them. Here's a look at five.
- Brian Murphy
Since news broke of Miami Marlin's, Dee Gordon, 80-game suspension, some fantasy owners are wondering how they're going to replace him. The cupboard isn't totally bare.
