Week 9 was challenging for me, as I made the mistake of not sticking to my data and instead faded some of the solid chalk plays that I should have trusted. In hindsight, I can see where things went wrong, as it's important to learn from those missteps. Now, it's time to take a step back, analyze what went well, and shift my focus toward preparing for a stronger performance in Week 10.
QB - Jayden Daniels - 19.86, Jalen Hurts - 29.9, Drake Maye - 18.74
RB - Saquon Barkley - 36.9, Tony Pollard - 21.4, Alvin Kamara - 30.5
WR - Cedric Tillman - 19.5
TE - Brock Bowers - 15.5
D/ST- Rams - 20
Before we start on Week 10, I’ll share my best-scoring GPP lineup.
QB - Drake Maye - 17.74
RB - Bijan Robinson - 18
RB - Alvin Kamara - 27.5
WR - CD Lamb - 12.2
WR - Elijah Moore - 4.3
WR - Calvin Ridley - 9.8
TE - Adam Trautman - 0.9
FLEX - Ladd McConkey - 8.9
D/ST - Commanders - 4
This lineup didn’t sniff cashing. I liked the Maye play but was cautious and did not stack any players with him. TE Hunter Henry would have been a good option; however, I wasn’t expecting a lot of points out of the Patriots. Falcons RB Bijan Robinson flopped for his price tag as did WR CeeDee Lamb. WRs Elijah Moore and Ladd McConkey also failed miserably as the Chargers chose to use the ground game to win. TE Adam Trautman was a dart throw against a good matchup so I can’t be too upset with that play. The Commander’s defense has been improving lately and I thought they could take advantage of a good matchup.
I had plenty of Saints RB Alvin Kamara in my lineups but the fade on Bengals RB Chase Brown hurt me. I also struck out on WR, as none of the plays I liked worked (Ealges A.J. Brown, Cowboys CeeDee Lamb, Falcons Drake London, Bears DJ Moore, Bills Keon Coleman). I also faded the expensive QBs, which turned out to be a huge mistake. Now that all that’s out of the way, it’s time for Week 10!
Week 10 DraftKings slate
Games to target:
1. BUF @ IND – 46 O/U
Implied totals: BUF 24.75; IND 21.25
2. MIN @ JAX – 47 O/U
Implied totals: MIN 25.25; Jax 21.5
3. SF @ TB – 50.5 O/U
Implied totals: SF 27.75; TB 22.75
4. ATL @ NO – 46 O/U
Implied totals: ATL- 24.75; NO- 21.25
5. NYJ @ ARI – 46
Implied totals: NYJ- 22.5; ARI- 23.5
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen ($7,700)
The Colts were just torched by Minnesota QB Sam Darnold to the tune of 290 passing yards and 3 TDs, while Bills QB Josh Allen crushed a tough Dolphins defense in Week 9 with 3 passing TDs. The Colt's defense sits 21st in EPA/dropback and 19th in dropback success rate. Allen makes for both a strong cash and GPP play this week.
Jalen Hurts ($7,800)
Philadelphia QB Jalen Hurts crushed in Week 9 and his price stayed the same. Hurts has 64 fantasy points over his past two games and gets a pathetic Cowboys defense in Week 10. The Cowboy's defense ranks 30th in EPA/play and 27th in EPA/drop back, which should aid Hurts in accumulating fantasy points.
Other options: Sam Darnold ($6,200): Vikings QB Sam Darnold’s opponent in Week 10, the Jaguars, rank 32nd in EPA/play, 32nd in EPA/drop back, and 27th in drop back success rate.
Running Back
Saquon Barkley ($8,300)
The Cowboys continue to wilt against the run. The ‘Boys rank 32nd in EPA/rush and 29th in rushing success rate. Eagles RB Saquon Barkley ranks 6th in WOPR among RBs, has multiple 30+ fantasy point games, and qualifies as a strong GPP play as well.
James Conner ($6,500)
Arizona RB James Conner has been a key cog in the Cardinals' offense. He has four games with over 100+ rushing yards and 4 rushing TDs on the year. Additionally, his matchup in Week 10 couldn’t get any better, as the Jets rank 26th in EPA/rush and rushing success rate.
Najee Harris ($6,200)
The Commander’s defense has improved, however, they are still vulnerable to the run game. Washington ranks 28th in both EPA/rush, and rushing success rate, which should help Steelers RB Najee Harris accrue fantasy points.
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson ($8,800)
Vikings WR Justin Jefferson sits 3rd in WOPR and tied for 2nd in target share (33%) and gets a dream matchup against the Jaguars in Week 10. The Jaguars rank 32nd in EPA/play, EPA/drop-back, and 27th in drop-back success rate.
Josh Downs ($6,200)
Colts WR Josh Downs had a mediocre outing against the Vikings in Week 9, however, he should have more success since QB Joe Flacco won’t be facing a defense that ranks 2nd in pressure rate. The Bills rank 22nd in defensive pressure rate (19.7%), which should allow Flacco plenty of time to find Downs, as he ranks 2nd on the Colts in WOPR and 1st in target share.
Tight End
George Kittle ($5,800)
San Fran TE George Kittle ranks 3rd in WOPR and 4th in target share (24%) among all TEs. He has 32 targets over his last four games, which should pair well with a Bucs defense allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to TEs.
Trey McBride ($5,700)
The Jets aren’t the best matchup, however, Arizona TE Trey McBride’s volume is hard to beat. He is 1st in target share (26%), 2nd in WOPR, and 2nd in air yards share. With the Cardinals' offense exploding for 57 points over the past two weeks, McBride is primed for a strong outing in Week 10.
Hunter Henry ($3,900)
Patriots TE Hunter Henry makes for a great cheap option in Week 10 as he’s scored 10+ fantasy points in three of his last four games to go along with 20 targets. While The Bears aren’t the best matchup on paper, they do rank 15th in fantasy points allowed to TEs.
D/ST
Chicago Bears ($3,000)
Chicago brings the 7th highest defensive pressure rate (26.8%), into a matchup with the New England Patriots offense that’s allowing pressure at the 5th highest rate (25%). Patriots Rookie QB Drake Maye has played well, however, his lack of weapons should rear its ugly head in this faceoff.
Favorite stacks:
1. Sam Darnold + Justin Jefferson with a Brian Thomas Jr. (pending health) bring back.
2. Brock Purdy + Deebo Samuel and/or George Kittle with a Cade Otton bring back, you can use both TEs in this stack to get unique or just one of them.
3. Jalen Hurts + AJ Brown (pending health) and/or DeVonta Smith and/or Saquon Barkley. I don’t like any bring backs for this game.
4. Josh Allen + Keon Coleman with Josh Downs bring back. You could honestly trim this down to Josh Allen and Josh Downs if you want to use other pieces.
GPP Plays:
Quarterbacks
See cash section
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor ($7,500)
This is a strong contrarian play. The Bills are allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to the RB position. Colts RB Jonathan Taylor should have a low roster percentage, making this an interesting spot to play him in GPPs.
Bijan Robinson ($7,700)
I don’t like Falcons RB Bijan Robinson in cash due to his chance of being subbed out at the goal line but he makes a great play in GPPs. Robinson faces a Saints defense that ranks 28th in EPA/rush and 27th in rushing success rate. I also like his increased usage in the passing game, as he has 14 targets over his past two games.
Other Options:
Tampa Bay RB Rachaad White ($5,900): White had 12 targets between Weeks 7 & 8, and his involvement should continue with the absence of WRs Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.
I also like my cash RBs for GPPs.
Wide Receivers
Deebo Samuel ($6,900)
It’s San Fran WR Deebo Samuel week! The 49ers get an excellent matchup against a terrible Bucs defense off a short week, aka "go time" for one of the most explosive WRs in the league. The Buc's defense ranks 26th in EPA/dropback, 30th in dropback success rate, and 27th in EPA/play. I love the 49ers skill players in Week 10.
Darnell Mooney ($6,500)
Falcons WR Darnell Mooney is risky but it seems that WR Drake London will miss Week 10, and the Saints just traded their best CB Marshon Lattimore. Mooney also makes for nice leverage against a popular Bijan Robison.
Other options: Jets WR Garrett Wilson ($7,200): Wilson is getting more in sync with QB Aaron Rodgers, accumulating 59 targets over his last five games. The Cardinals' defense has played better lately but they still rank 28th in EPA/dropback, 32nd in dropback success rate, and 28th in EPA/play.
Rome Odunze ($5,200): Bears WR Rome Odunze gets a great matchup against a flailing Patriots defense. With WR DJ Moore squaring off against CB Christian Gonzalez, Odunze should be running free all day in the Patriots' secondary, as they rank 29th in EPA/play, 30th in EPA/dropback, and 29th in dropback success rate.
Tight Ends
Dalton Kincaid ($4,900)
Bills TE Dalton Kincaid has 6 consecutive weeks with 6+ targets, including a season-high 10 targets in Week 9. He has disappointed in season-long and best ball but has a great chance to surprise in DFS this week. The Colts, Kincaid’s Week 10 opponent, have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to the position this year.
Taysom Hill ($4,000)
The Saints are rebuilding, and that included firing HC Dennis Allen. Their offense has dropped off dramatically from the beginning of the year, and WR Chris Olave could be out for Week 10, opening up more opportunities for TE Taysom Hill. Hill is a cheap dart throw and Swiss army knife in the Saints' offense, having multiple avenues to put up fantasy points.
D/ST
Washington Commanders ($3,100)
The Commanders rank 10th in defensive pressure rate and face a Steelers offense allowing pressure at the 12th highest rate. HC Dan Quinn has the defense humming, and if the Commanders' offense continues to consistently score, they could force the Steelers to pass more than they want to.
Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)
Browns WR Cedric Tillman has been crushing it for the last two weeks. Sadly the Browns are on a BYE in Week 10.
Dalton Kincaid ($4,900) and Hunter Henry ($3,900)
Pricing is tight this week which is why I like both Bills TE Kincaid and New England TE Henry this week. I anticipate using double TE builds as a way to save salary as the cheap options at RB and WR are bad.
Have a great Week 10 of NFL DFS! Make sure to go to advancedsportslogic.com and checkout The Machine – DFS Lineup Optimizer
By Clayton Jones aka @FF_Pulse_88 on Twitter.
