In recent weeks, we have focused on many aspects of the NFL Draft. We have learned that the "Stud RB" is back and that supposedly top wide receivers selected in recent years are anything but a sure bet to succeed. Today, we are going to talk about the glamor position: quarterback. We will see how the first five QBs selected in the 2015, 2016 and 2017 drafts have fared. How can we use that as an indicator of how the 2018 crop will perform?
I remember back in 1998 when the No. 1 and No. 2 picks in the draft were quarterbacks Peyton Manning followed by Ryan Leaf. Fantasy-wise, most people thought Leaf had the higher upside. That year in fantasy football, it was about 50-50 on which one to choose. Twenty years later, hindsight tells us what a blunder it was to take Leaf. He was out of football by 2002 while Manning went on to become one of the greatest QBs ever.
This year, we have a group of at least five rookie QBs whom most have rated to be successful, either this season or in the near future. Yet, despite the momentary enthusiasm, a review of the highly drafted QBs from the past three years leaves us with a sense of confusion. Whom do we trust to succeed?
If nothing else, I believe you will come away from this analysis with some uncertainty. That is the nature of fantasy football. YOU have to seek out and understand the facts that determine whether or not a player will get a certain opportunity to win a starting job in the first place. Learn to make your own decisions after weighing all of the evidence. As you play fantasy football more and more, you will become a better evaluator of players and their values. Relying on experts is good, but only for gathering opinions. Ultimately, you must learn to make and own your decisions.
Now, let’s see how the top QBs drafted over the last three years have performed thus far.
2015 Draft
1. QB Jameis Winston, TB (Pick No. 1)
- Seasons played: 3
- Passing yards: 11,636
- Completion percentage: 60.8
- TD-to-INT ratio: 69:44
- Status: Starter
- Grade: Pass
2. QB Marcus Mariota, TEN (Pick No. 2)
- Seasons played: 3
- Passing yards: 9,476
- Completion percentage: 61.8
- TD-to-INT ratio: 58:34
- Status: Starter
- Grade: Pass
3. QB Garrett Grayson, NO (Pick No. 75)
- Seasons played: 3 (one game, no stats)
- Passing yards: NA
- Completion percentage: NA
- TD-to-INT ratio: NA
- Status: Backup with the Falcons
- Grade: Fail
4. QB Sean Mannion, STL/LAR (Pick No. 89)
- Seasons played: 3
- Passing yards: 235
- Completion percentage: 62.0
- TD-to-INT ratio: 0:1
- Status: Backup
- Grade: Fail
5. QB Bryce Petty, NYJ (Pick No. 103)
- Seasons played: 3
- Passing yards: 1,353
- Completion percentage: 53.1
- TD-to-INT ratio: 4:10
- Status: Backup with the Dolphins
- Grade: Fail
2016 Draft
1. QB Jared Goff, LAR (Pick No. 1)
- Seasons played: 2
- Passing yards: 4,893
- Completion percentage: 59.8
- TD-to-INT ratio: 33:14
- Status: Starter
- Grade: Pass
2. QB Carson Wentz, PHI (Pick No. 2)
- Seasons played: 2
- Passing yards: 7,078
- Completion percentage: 61.5
- TD-to-INT ratio: 49:21
- Status: Starter
- Grade: Pass
3. QB Paxton Lynch, DEN (Pick No. 26)
- Seasons played: 2
- Passing yards: 792
- Completion percentage: 61.7
- TD-to-INT ratio: 4:4
- Status: Backup
- Grade: Fail
4. QB Christian Hackenberg, NYJ (Pick No. 51)
- Seasons played: 2 (no game action)
- Passing yards: NA
- Completion percentage NA:
- TD-to-INT ratio: NA
- Status: Backup
- Grade: Fail
5. QB Jacoby Brissett, NE (Pick No. 91)
- Seasons played: 2
- Passing yards: 3,498
- Completion percentage: 59.2
- TD-to-INT ratio: 13:7
- Status: Starter or backup with the Colts, depending on the health of Andrew Luck
- Grade: Pass
2017 Draft
1. QB Mitchell Trubisky, CHI (Pick No. 2)
- Seasons played: 1
- Passing yards: 2,193
- Completion percentage: 59.4
- TD-to-INT ratio: 7:7
- Status: Starter
- Grade: Pass
2. QB Patrick Mahomes, KC (Pick No. 10)
- Seasons played:1
- Passing yards: 284
- Completion percentage: 62.9
- TD-to-INT ratio: 0:1
- Status: Starter
- Grade: Pass
3. QB Deshaun Watson. HOU (Pick No. 12)
- Seasons played: 1
- Passing yards: 1,699
- Completion percentage: 61.8
- TD-to-INT ratio: 19:8
- Status: Starter
- Grade: Pass
4. QB DeShone Kizer, CLE (Pick No. 52)
- Seasons played: 1
- Passing yards: 2,894
- Completion percentage: 53.6
- TD-to-INT ratio: 11:22
- Status: Backup with the Packers
- Grade: Fail
5. QB Davis Webb, NYG (Pick No. 87)
- Seasons played: 1 (no game action)
- Passing yards: NA
- Completion percentage: NA
- TD-to-INT ratio: NA
- Status: Backup
- Grade: Fail
Things could turn around for some of these players with a failing grade. If starters got injured, some of them could see action and increase their long-term value. These grades judge them only by their current situation. As you can see, picking a successful quarterback is around a 50-50 proposition. Seemingly, you might as well flip a coin.
There are always forces in play that can make an also-ran a stud. That is the nature of our game. When valuing the 2018 QB draft class, remember what has happened to those from the past three drafts. Some of the first five QBs taken in 2018 are likely to disappoint us. Keep that in your mind during your upcoming fantasy draft. Many of them will be much more valuable in dynasty leagues than in redrafts. However, as we have seen, at least one of those quarterbacks may not have any real value at all.
There are only about two months left until training camps open. Buckle up for the journey. My colleagues and I at Advanced Sports logic are intent on helping you become the champion you want to be. Between our top-rated software and our poignant articles, we will be with you for the 2018 season in its entirety. What happens then? That, my friends, is easy. We start over and do it all again in 2019!
Stats compiled from NFL.com and Pro-Football-Reference.com
Over the years many readers have contacted me personally for fantasy football questions throughout the year. I look forward to helping you in your quest to win championships this year. You can contact me with any questions or comments you may have at
https://www.facebook.com/groups/330237687362965/.
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Good luck! Have fun!
