Week 14—are you kidding me? What a season it’s been. Seven games this week were decided by less than 7 points, including an absolute thriller Sunday night between the Commanders and Broncos, which RJ Harvey managers surely enjoyed.
One more player I want to mention this week before we get to the start list is Jason Myers. We don’t talk kickers often, but he has been nothing short of a superstar at the position this year—and he’s still available in over 30% of leagues. He’s made 3+ FGs in 6 games and has scored fewer than 8 points just once all season. Get him for the playoffs if you can.
Starts
QB – Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (DAL)
Jared Goff has made the sit list twice this year, but I think it’s time I show him the respect he’s earned. I’ve talked over and over about how important a high floor is at the QB position this close to the playoffs—you simply cannot afford a dud this time of year.
In his last 8 games, he’s thrown for over 200 yards and 2 TDs in 6 of them. On the season he’s averaged 252 passing yards per game with 25 TDs and just 5 INTs. All those solid numbers, and he’s still available in about 20% of leagues.
In this matchup, he’s bound to have 250 yards and 2 TDs as a baseline. The Cowboys have allowed opposing QBs to average 256 passing yards per game with 28 TDs and just 5 interceptions this season. Goff is a top-10 play this week.
RB – Chris Rodriguez Jr., Washington Commanders (@ MIN)
In deeper leagues, Chris Rodriguez might be a sneaky-good play heading into the playoffs. The Commanders have been going back and forth on who their lead back is this season, but the last few weeks it has clearly been Rodriguez, who has played over 30 snaps in each of the last two contests.
He’s a power back and they use him in the red zone as well, scoring a TD in three of his last four games. He’s got a good matchup this week against the Vikings, who have not been playing good football. They’ve been down a lot—losing 6 of their last 7—and teams have been pounding the rock against them, allowing the most carries on the season for 1,541 rushing yards and 11 TDs.
I expect that trend to continue and Rodriguez to keep getting opportunities. He’s a solid flex this week.
WR – Christian Watson, Green Bay Packers (@ CHI)
Since missing the first half of the season, Christian Watson had a lot of question marks around him. Now, after another solid game with 4 catches for 80 yards and a TD, I think those questions have been answered.
In his 6 games back, his floor has been high thanks to his big-play ability, with at least 40 yards in each of those games. The ceiling is climbing too: 3 TDs in his last 3 games, and the ball keeps going his way—22 targets over his last 3 contests.
Now he’s matched up against the Bears defense. Chicago has been taking the ball away this year, but they still give up yards and scores. They’re allowing 225 passing yards per game and have surrendered 24 passing TDs this year, fourth-most in the league. Jordan Love should have a good game, and I expect him to keep feeding his current favorite target. Watson is a solid WR2 this week.
TE – Zach Ertz, Washington Commanders (@ MIN)
Veteran Zach Ertz has been one of the most consistent TEs at the most inconsistent position in fantasy. He made the start list some weeks ago, and here he is again—still available in about 50% of leagues and still giving you a high floor.
Terry McLaurin is back from injury, and that only helps spread the field for Ertz, who just posted 10 catches on 13 targets for 106 yards this past week. He’s been consistently solid, with 4+ catches in 5 straight games. Four catches for 40 yards isn’t flashy, but it’s better than the alternative at tight end.
Ertz has the 9th-most catches and the 12th-most yards at the TE position this year. The stat that really pops is his 21% target share, 4th-highest among tight ends. The TDs have been missing, but he’s far too consistent not to be in lineups in these last crucial weeks.
Defense – Washington Commanders (@ MIN)
The Commanders defense has been terrible this year, but in their last two games they’ve really trended up—going to OT in consecutive games and holding the Dolphins to 16 points and the Broncos to 27.
On the other hand, their opponent this week is trending down…more like falling off a cliff. The Vikings have lost 4 straight and scored just 6 points combined in their last 2 games. They’ve passed for 150 yards or less in 5 of their last 6. They’re 29th in passing yards this year and lead the league with 19 interceptions thrown. They haven’t been much better on the ground either, ranking 26th in rushing yards.
The Commanders should be available in nearly every league. They’re a great streamer this week.
Sits
QB – C.J. Stroud, Houston Texans (@ KC)
The Chiefs have been such a high-powered offense over the years that at first glance you want to stream QBs against them, expecting a shootout. That’s just not the case this season. Their defense has been locked in against opposing quarterbacks.
They’ve allowed only 13 passing TDs in 12 games and are giving up just 206 passing yards per game. Not a great matchup—and C.J. Stroud isn’t exactly playing inspiring football right now. In his return from injury in Week 13, he threw for 276 yards and 1 INT.
He’s averaging just 220 passing yards this season in 9 games, which isn’t terrible, but he’s paired it with only 11 passing TDs. The projections might look solid, but you can’t trust a QB who might just get you 200 yards and 1 TD in this matchup.
RB – Tony Pollard, Tennessee Titans (@ CLE)
After three straight 1,000-yard seasons, it has been a down year for Tony Pollard. I mostly blame the Titans offense as a whole. Even so, Pollard is still owned in about 75% of leagues, yet he’s done nothing to earn that kind of trust.
Through the first 5 weeks, he was a solid start, averaging 66 rushing yards per game and scoring 2 TDs. The last 7 games have been ugly—just 36 rushing yards per game over that stretch and not a single TD. He’s still somewhat involved in the passing game, so some weeks he settles in as a fine flex play.
Not this week. He shouldn’t be anywhere near lineups against Cleveland. The Browns have allowed a league-low 3.7 yards per carry and have given up the 3rd-fewest rushing TDs this season. It’s going to be another dud week for Pollard.
WR – DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks (@ BAL)
A couple of weeks ago I talked about all the money A.J. Brown is being paid and not being involved in the offense. The exact same can be said about DK Metcalf. Five years for $150 million—you expect him to be heavily involved.
He did get off to a hot start with 4 TDs in his first 5 games. Since then, it’s been awfully quiet. He’s had fewer than 60 receiving yards in seven straight games and hasn’t had the TDs to bail him out either, with just one over that stretch. On the year, he’s gone over 90 yards only twice and has just one game with more than 8 targets.
It’s a solid matchup this week against the Ravens on paper, but that doesn’t matter much if he’s only going to get 6 targets. Better options are available.
TE – A.J. Barner, Seattle Seahawks (@ ATL)
Throughout the year, you always have a couple of tight ends who pop for big games and then disappear. Our most recent culprit is A.J. Barner. In Week 5 he had a 2-TD game against the Buccaneers, and in Week 11 he posted 10 catches for 70 yards.
Outside of those games, it has not been a consistent season. He has fewer than 30 receiving yards in 7 of his 12 games. Yes, he’s in a great offense, so it’s tempting—but that’s where you have to pay attention to the targets. On the season, he has just 2 games with more than 5 targets.
He’s far too up-and-down to trust in a crucial week, especially against the Falcons, who are 2nd this season against opposing tight ends.
Defense – Green Bay Packers (@ CHI)
If you were looking ahead earlier in the season, this definitely looked like one of the best matchups of the week for the Packers defense. I don’t think that’s the case anymore.
The Packers defense has been good, but the Bears are hot right now—and it’s not because of Caleb Williams. They’ve been pounding the rock extremely efficiently, with both RBs going over 100 rushing yards last week. Through 12 games, they’ve rushed for 1,846 yards and 15 TDs, trailing the Bills by just 20 yards for the league lead in rushing yards.
I think this game is going to be a back-and-forth scoring contest with smart, safe football from the Bears. The Packers defense has both a low floor and a low ceiling this week. Find a better matchup.
