Ladies and Gentlemen, it’s finally time for NFL Week 1 DFS!!

After a long break it’s time to lock-in and give you the best data/analysis possible to help YOU win big! Let’s get after it!!

Week 1 DraftKings Slate

Games to target:

1.CAR @ JAX– 46.5 O/U 

Implied totals: CAR 21.5; JAX 25 

2. TB @ DAL – 44 O/U 

Implied totals: TB 25; ATL 22.5 

3. HOU @ LAR – 43.5 O/U 

Implied totals: HOU 20.25; LAR 23.25 

4. NYG @ WAS – 45.5 O/U 

Implied totals: NYG- 19.75; WAS- 25.75  

Top Cash Plays:

Quarterbacks

C.J Stroud ($6,000)  

Stroud clearly regressed in 2024 in many categories. Most notably, Stroud struggled with sacks (52), adjusted net yards/attempt and air yards/attempt. As the saying goes, hope springs eternal, with new offensive coordinator Nick Caley at the helm, I expect a bounce-back season for Stroud and it should start against a Rams defense that 20th in pressure rate in 2024 (21.4%), 6th in net yards/attempt allowed and tie for 5th in passing TDs allowed.  

Bo Nix ($6,300)  

Nix is an intriguing (in a good way) cash play for Week 1. Nix finished 2024 with the 5th most rushing attempts among QBs along with ranking 12th in passing yards and 6th in passing TDs. The Titans finished 13th in fantasy points allowed to QBs last season.  

Baker Mayfield ($6,600) 

Mayfield is priced up for Week 1 however, I still think he can hit 4x value on his salary. In 4 of his last 5 games, he accrued 22 or more fantasy points. Even with WR Chris Godwin out, Mayfield has plenty of options to use. Furthering Mayfield’s cause in Week 1 is the Falcons defense, who allowed the 6th most fantasy points to QBs last season.  

Running Back

Chubba Hubbard ($6,000) 

Hubbard is a clear value for me. Hubbard is a talented back with no threat apparent to steal work from him. Hubbard finished 16th in fantasy points last season and sported a solid 12% target share in 2024. I also like Hubbard this week because of his opponent in Week 1, the Jaguars. The Jaguars allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to RBs last season.  

Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,700) 

Gibbs proved towards the end of last season that he is him. With four consecutive games of 100+ rushing yards and 8 total TDs in that span, he has ascended. Gibbs finished 2024 8th in target share and 7th in WOPR and no expectation for that to slow down. The Packers, Gibbs’ Week 1 opponent, were middle of the pack against RBs last season. As a refresher, Gibbs totaled 108 rushing yards along with 2 total TDs in two games against the Packers in 2024 as well as 7 receptions for 41 yards. 

Other Options:

James Conner ($6,100) the Cardinals passed at a 55.31% rate last season aka they like to run. Aiding Conner is his Week 1 opponent, the Saints, who allowed the 5th most fantasy points to RBs last season.  

Josh Jacobs ($6,700) Jacobs is a great value for Week 1. He finished 5th in rushing yards and 4th in rushing TDs and no threat for workload sharing. In two meetings vs the Lions last year, Jacobs accrued 161 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs.  

Wide Receiver

Ja’Marr Chase ($7,100) 

There are a lot of WRs I like for Week 1, but Ja’Marr Chase is the clear cut for cash this week. In 7 games against Cleveland, Chase has accumulated 404 yards and 3 TDs. Chase was 10th in target share last season while leading all WRs in TDs. I’m trusting Joe Burrow to get Ja’Marr Chase involved early and often against Cleveland.  

Mike Evans ($6,600) 

With no Chris Godwin in Week 1, Evans gets the treat of an all-you-can-eat buffet of targets. Just looking at the Bucs roster without Godwin, Evans dominated it all statistics including: 

• -WOPR: 68% 
• -Target share: 26% 
• -Redzone target share: 31% 

Evans is a glaring value and gets a great matchup against a mediocre Falcons defense. The Falcons allowed the 5th most fantasy points to WRs last season.  

Malik Nabers ($7,000) 

Nabers is a great cash option in Week 1 (and every week). Nabers was tied for 1st in WOPR (86%), 1st in target share and 4th in air yards share last season. With QBs Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston on the roster you could legitimately argue they are upgrades over former QB Daniel Jones. On paper, the Commanders seem like a tough matchup, ranking 22nd in points allowed to WRs and yet, Nabers seems to have their number. In their two meetings last season, Nabers amassed 19 receptions for 186 yards and 1 TD.  

Other options: Courtland Sutton ($6,000), Jauan Jennings ($4,900), Nico Collins ($7,400), Jerry Jeudy ($5,400)

Tight End

Trey McBride ($6,200) 

McBride is a stud, he led all TEs in WOPR, target share, and air yards share. The only thing he’s missing is TDs and eventually that will happen. For now, we’ll have to enjoy the insane volume he’s getting.  

Zach Ertz ($4,100)  

Ertz is a nice cheap option at TE for Week 1. Ertz ranked 10th in WOPR, 11th in target share and 8th in air yards share among all TEs. If you want to go all-in at WR and RB, Ertz is an excellent option.  

Other Options:

David Njoku ($4,700), not sure who is playing QB for Cleveland, but we do know Njoku is still the starting TE. After returning from injury, Njoku played anywhere from 73.7% of snaps to 98.3% of snaps from Weeks 6 through 13. With an entire offseason to heal up, I anticipate Njoku should get back to his top 8 TE status. Njoku also makes sense to me this week as Cleveland finished 2024 with the highest passing rate (65.03%).  

Brock Bowers ($6,500), Bowers is a no-brainer if you can afford him. He ranked 2nd only to Trey McBride in WOPR and target share, and 3rd in air yards share.  

D/ST

Denver Broncos ($3,800)/Washington Commanders ($3,700) 

Both of these teams are home favorites. The Broncos get the luxury of facing a rookie QB at home while the Commanders draw journeyman Russell Wilson. Neither of these opposing offenses are intimidating and I anticipate both playing catchup, causing multiple mistakes to be capitalized on. 

Houston Texans ($2,500) 

The Texans ranked 14th in pressure rate last season while finishing tied for 4th in sacks. Rams’ QB Matthew Stafford has already been having back issues and that’s before the first game of the season. If the Texans offense pushes the pace, I could see the Texans defense feasting on Rams turnovers.  

Favorite stacks: 

1. Baker Mayfield + Mike Evans and/or Bucky Irving with Darnell Mooney bring back. Mayfield and Evans are reasonably priced and Mooney brings the boom/bust potential to elevate this stack. I do not like using Drake London in this spot as I don’t think his ceiling is high enough to justify his price tag.  

2. Kyler Murray + Marvin Harrison Jr. + Trey McBride or James Conner. I think this stack will be under-owned with the Cardinals being on the road and the natural bias of the Saints being good at home. The Cardinals offense was clicking towards the end of last season   

3. Jayden Daniels + Terry McLaurin with Malik Nabers bring back. The Commander’s defense was an easy target last season and I can see this game hitting the over easily. 

 

GPP Plays:

Quarterbacks

Bryce Young ($5,700) Young seemed to be putting things together towards the end of last season evidenced by having two 20+ point outings and one 30 point outing. With a matchup against a Jaguars defense that allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to QBs in 2024, Young makes for an interesting gamble in GPPs.  

Trevor Lawrence ($5,300) Similarly to Bryce Young, Lawrence had some flashes of hope even in an injury-riddled season. Lawrence gets the benefit of stud sophomore WR Brian Thomas Jr. and top rookie WR Travis Hunter, so he has plenty of options. I’m also leaning towards Lawrence because the Jaguar’s running game has been putrid the last few seasons (26th in rushing yards and rushing yards/game in 2024).  

Other options: Brock Purdy ($6,200) with CMC a late addition to the injury report, Purdy should shoulder the load for the SF offense.  

Running Back

Kenneth Walker ($5,100)  

Walker finished 8th in WOPR among RBs and that was with only 11 games started. What’s more impressive about that short stint is his huge uptick in receiving. Walker set career-highs in targets, receptions and receiving yards. Walker’s upside could be even bigger in 2025 with the Seahawks traded D.K. Metcalf. Walker’s Week 1 opponent, the 49ers, allowed the 4th highest rush/EPA and 8th highest rushing success rate. 

Travis Etienne ($5,400) 

The Jaguars are a hot mess express but that doesn’t mean they can’t be fantasy viable. With WR Travis Hunter drawing all the excitement, Etienne gets a chance at incredibly low rostership. Etienne was disgusting last year but the matchup against the Panthers is too good to pass up. The Panthers allowed the highest Rush/EPA and rushing success rate last season.  

Wide Receivers

Jakobi Meyers ($5,100) 

Meyers is a great value play for Week 1. Davante Adams moved to LA and the disastrous duo of Gardner Minshew and Aidan O’Connell have been replaced with a competent QB in Geno Smith. Meyers gets a fabulous matchup against a vulnerable Patriots secondary, who ranked 30th in EPA/play, Dropback/EPA, and Dropback success rate in 2024.  

Jerry Jeudy ($5,400) 

Joe Flacco may be old but he still likes to throw deep and Jeudy has commanded the WR1 role on this Browns offense. The Browns were tied for 1st in plays per game as well as 1st in passing rate. I also like Jeudy in Week 1 since he faces the Bengals. The Bengals defense ranked 27th in EPA/play and 30th in success rate last season.  

Other options: Large-field GPPs- Jameson Williams ($5,500), Jayden Reed ($5,400), Tee Higgins ($6,400)

Tight Ends

I’m sticking with my cash TEs for GPPs this week. 

D/ST

I’m sticking with my cash game D/ST’s for GPPs.

Bargain Bin (sub $5,000 players that can score over 10 fantasy points)

Let’s start Week 1 off with a bang!  

WR Darnell Mooney ($5,000), WR Jauan Jennings ($4,900), TE David Njoku ($4,700), TE Zach Ertz ($4,100), WR Michael Pittman ($4,900), WR Travis Hunter ($5,000), Adam Thielen ($4,700) 

I’m anticipating a lot of low-scoring affairs so this might be a good week for 3 RB lineups in GPPs.  

Have a great Week 1 of NFL DFS! Make sure to go to advancedsportslogic.com and checkout The Machine – DFS Lineup Optimizer 

By Clayton Jones aka FFPulse88.bsky.social on BlueSky. On Underdog-use code FFPULSE88 for a one-time, 100% match up to $1000 on your 1st deposit!!