Full Series: QB(2025)  RB(2025)  WR(2025)  TE(2024)  Conclusion(2024)

Introduction

This article presents a statistical analysis focusing on dynasty rookie wide receiver draft selections. It examines the correlation between average dynasty fantasy draft position (ADP), years in the league, and success rate.

I do these studies to manage my own dynasty football team. Using my own strategies, my team has been to our league playoffs six years in a row. Last year my team lost in the semi-finals by 19 points when Jalen Hurts (QB, Phi) was injured in the 1st quarter. The team that beat my team went on to win the championship. We have PPR scoring and start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 FLEX (RB/WR/TE), 1 K and 1 DST.

This study gives you ways to efficiently build your WR corps. The key word here is "efficiently". It is easy to offer three 1st round picks to get Ja'Marr Chase (Cin). However, that would be almost the worst thing you could do for your fantasy team because draft picks are an appreciating asset and receivers after their third year are depreciating assets.

We want to make each of our precious draft picks worth as much as possible, not because we think we have better football knowledge than everyone else (okay half of you do, but half of you don't - I would rank myself in the bottom half easily), but because you have an effective overall strategy for running your team. There are only three ways to manage your roster: trades, draft picks and the waiver wire. The draft only comes along once a year, and when leveraged properly, it's far more than just an opportunity to pick up rookies.

My team goes to the playoffs year after year and my draft pick repository going into this year's draft is: 1.02, 1.09, 2.02, 2.09, 3.02, 3.03, 3.09 and 3.11. I have also stock piled 4 1sts, 3 2nds and 5 3rds for 2026 and 2027. Draft picks are the only dynasty team asset that always have an appreciating value, and I have an arsenal of 20 picks compared to the league average of 8 for the other 11 teams. Since I have 11 more picks than the allotted nine - 3 for each year, I have brought the rest of the league average down by 1 whole draft pick. So my team is appreciating in value at 2.5 times (20 / 8) faster than the average team in the league. I explain how I build this arsenal in How to Win Your Dynasty League and consider it the single most import aspect of dynasty team management.

Ahead of our June 7 draft, throughout the off-season I have been trading to whittle down my roster down. I only have 19 players and can easily drop three more to get to the requisite 16 players prior to our draft. The core of my roster is now:

• QB corps: Jalen Hurts and Bo Nix (Ind)
• RB corps: Joe Mixon (Hou), Brian Robinson (Wsh) and Jerome Ford (Cle)
• WR corps: Brian Robinson Jr. (Jac), Courtland Sutton (Den) and Tee Higgins (Cin)
• TE corps: George Kittle (SF), Evan Engram (Den)

My WR corps started off with Tyreek Hill (Mia) and Deebo Samuel (SF) who seemed prime to be at least a WR1 and WR2 going into the 2024 season. However, these players started fading mid-season, so I made critical trades prior to entering and during the playoffs:

• Week 13: I gave up Tyreek Hill and a high 2026 1st for Tee Higgins. (This one turned some heads, but I believe time will prove this wasn't the worst trade.)
• Week 16: I gave up Deebo Samuel for a low 2026 2nd.
• Week 16: I gave up Dalton Kincaid (Buf), a mid 2025 1st and a mid 2026 2nd to acquire Courtland Sutton and George Kittle.
• Even if I overpaid a little, I was getting proven players that meet very specific needs. These trades weren't dart throws, and they were necessary adjustments for me to have a competitive team in the playoffs. So, in that sense, these trades were efficient.

Even though the make up of my roster and draft pick arsenal is likely very different than yours, I hope this study provides valuable information that can help you make your WR corps, the back bone of your team, stronger.

Now without further ado, we look at the ADP and longevity data.

Historical ADP Information

Based on historical ADP information, this is where receivers were drafted over the last ten years:

Some notable WRs that had an ADP greater than 36 are Tyreek Hill and Puka Nacua. Some top WRs that slipped to the 3rd round of dynasty drafts are Jarvis Landry, Stefon Diggs and Chris Godwin. The steals of the decade have to be Stefon Diggs and Davante Adams (ADP 2.06, 18th overall).

The next step in my analysis is to see how these players have panned-out since being drafted. For since we must start a minimum of three WRs in my league, I valued the top-36, assigning them values accordingly:

• Ranking 1-6: 1.0
• Ranking 7-12: 0.75
• Ranking 13-18: 0.50
• Ranking 19-24: 0.375
• Ranking 25-30: 0.25
• Ranking 31-36: 0.125

Then I took the integral of their results and got this chart:

The valuable information pops out in the last row. It shows the success rate versus years of experience. Next I put this information into graphical form:

Overall, collectively wide receivers seem to have a 3-year learning curve and then trend downward over eight more years.

As we consider ways to improve the strength of our WR corps during the draft, we would be remiss if we don't consider the possibility of adding undervalued 2nd and 3rd year receivers. Generally, fantasy managers spend far more time evaluating rookies and deciding their rookie rankings, and not the 2nd and 3rd year wide receivers that are likely increasing in fantasy value. The hype and excitement is all around rookies on draft day, and goes down pretty quickly on a WR that doesn't make the top-12 in year one. 

Multiple 2024 rookie WRs made it into the top 36 last year: Malik Nabers (WR1), Brian Thomas Jr. (WR1), Ladd McConkey (WR1), Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR3) and Xavier Worthy (WR3). 2024 sophomore WRs that made it into the top 36 last year are Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR1), Jordan Addison (WR2), Zay Flowers (WR2), Puka Nacua (WR2) and  Jayden Reed (WR3). Based on historical trends, it is likely more of these WRs are going to rise in fantasy value rather than decline. Let's delve into our analysis and examine the second- and third-year wide receivers, beginning with the 2023 draftees. We will check the news, examine how they did in the back-half of last year, and consider any quarterback or depth chart changes.

After that, if I think a player is on an upward trend, I might try to get the 2nd or 3rd-year WR for a bargain as opposed to drafting a rookie. Securing this potentially better deal is far more feasible on draft day compared to any other day of the year, underscoring why it's crucial to integrate it into an effective draft strategy. On draft day, rookie hype is at an all time high, and other managers frequently overvalue these highly coveted first-year players. For example, they might think that a rookie still on the board in the 3rd round is worth a 1st or 2nd round pick. Yet, if they roster Joe, a three-year veteran, there could be a good opportunity for me to trade my third-round pick for him. I see Joe Veteran as a player on the rise, while the other manager might be fixated on the rookie player, failing to recognize the value that Joe Veteran still brings.

Also, bear in mind that while this strategy is solid, generally speaking it is most feasible only on draft day. Putting all the odds together in your favor to make the most efficient (most value for least cost) move possible is how you get the most out of your draft.

Here are my notes. If you don't want to read my notes, you can skip them and come to the summary where I breakdown what picks I might be willing to spend on each of the following 2nd and 3rd year WRs.

 2023 Rookies

• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Sea): Last year I identified JSN as a player to target during the draft with a 2nd round pick, and he went on to give a WR1 performance. This year the Seahawks have moved on from DK Metcalf and Tyler Locket, and added 8-year veteran Cooper Kupp and drafted Elijah Arroyo (TE). Even with these upgrades, I could see JSN continuing to improve his third year. I am pretty sure the JSN ship has sailed, but I might offer my 1.09 pick for him during the draft and see if I get a nibble.
  
  
• Jordan Addison (Min): Last year I identified Addison as a player to target with a 2nd round pick. Even with Justin Jefferson as the Vikings #1 WR, Addison still gave us a solid WR2 sophomore season. There are trade rumors and a possible NFL suspension is looming. However, I think neither of these are real issues with respect to Addison's long term potential, and might actually make it easier to acquire him. So I would be interested in Addison if I could acquire him for a 2nd round pick.
  
  
• Zay Flowers (Bal): Last year I also identified Flowers as a player to target with a 2nd round pick. Flowers is the Ravens clear #1 WR and gave us a WR2 performance. He got banged up in Week 18 and missed the post-season. I would be willing to acquire him for a 2nd round pick.
  
  
• Puka Nacua (LAR): Despite being out for 5 games last year, Nacua still gave a WR2 performance. If he remains healthy in 2025, he should be a top-6 WR, but he is way too expensive to acquire efficiently now.
  
  
• Rashee Rice (KC): Rice had a decent rookie season, and then had a great start to 2024 before his Week 4 injury. He also has a looming possible NFL suspension. He seems to be on track to be ready for Week 1. He will be sharing the WR load with Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown and 13-yr Travis Kelce. I believe expectations are that Rice will be a top WR1 this year, so it would be difficult to acquire him efficiently, but I might offer my 2.02 for him on draft day and see if I get a nibble
  
  
• Josh Downs (Ind): Downs could be interesting if Daniel Jones wins the QB competition with Anthony Richardson. However, I am not going to spend any draft capital on him at this point.
  
  
• Quentin Johnston (LAC): Johnston went from 38 receptions and 2 TDs in 2023 to 55 receptions and 8 TDs in 2024, but I wasn't interested in Johnston last year because of my concern that he would be overtaken by rookie Ladd McConkey and I'm not interested this year either.
  
  
• Jayden Reed (GB): The Packers failed to get much of a passing attack going in 2024 with Jordan Love behind center. And now the Packers spent their 1st round pick to acquire Matthew Golden who will supplant Romeo Doubs as an immediate starter. My feeling is if Reed couldn't turn in a WR3 performance last year, even if he improves it won't be huge, and I can find better opportunities for my 3rd round picks.
  
  
• Other 3rd-year WRs that are now off my radar include Marvin Mims Jr. (Den), Michael Wilson (Ari), Tank Dell (Hou), Jonathon Mingo (Dal), Kayshon Boutte (NE), Cedric Tillman (Cle) and Jalin Hyatt (NYG). In fact I threw Wilson together with Jordan Mason (RB, Min) to get the 2.09 pick this year. I will let Wilson and Mason clutter someone else's roster and see what I can do with the 2.09 instead.

2024 Rookies

• Malik Nabers (NYG): Last year Nabers was the Giants receiving squad, and the Giants didn't pick up any other receivers in the draft. He had an ADP of 1.02 last year, and is the best receiver from the 2024 draft class. So there is no way to get him efficiently now.
  
  
• Brian Thomas Jr. (Jax): I drafted Thomas Jr. last year with my 1.09 pick. He also had an amazing rookie season, so it would not be possible to acquire him efficiently in other leagues.
  
  
• Ladd McConkey (LAC): No need to discuss much here. The ship to efficiently acquire Wilson has already sailed. He is the Jets top WR, had a monster sophomore year, and is projected to rise more with Rodgers taking the helm at QB. Not interested, as he will be too expensive.
  
  
• Marvin Harrison Jr. (Ari): As I stated last year, I didn't have high expectations for Harrison Jr. last year. He performed below expectations of the masses, but basically where I anticipated he would perform. He might get better over the next two or three years, but owners that just used their 2024 1.01 pick to acquire him aren't ready to give up on him for a 2nd round pick. So I won't try to acquire him.
  
  
• Keon Coleman (Buf): Coleman's rookie year wasn't very exciting and he will be competing for targets with Khalil Shakir. However, with Josh Allen behind center, I believe Coleman's arrow points up, and I would be willing to spend a 3rd round pick for him.
  
  
• Xavier Worthy (KC): I know Worthy is fast, but I am not sold on Worthy's potential. With Rashee Rice returning from injury and Worthy's off-field distractions, I won't offer more than a late 3rd pick for him.
  
  
• Rome Odunze (Chi): Odunze had a decent rookie season as the #2 WR for the Bears behind 8-year veteran D.J. Moore. The Bears drafted Odunze with the 2024 overall 9th pick, so they must have had big plans for him, and they will continue to invest in his development. I would be willing to offer a low 2nd for him.
  
  
• Ricky Pearsall (SF): I drafted Pearsall with my 2.02 last year and traded him away as part of acquiring Joe Mixon (RB, Hou) and Jayden Reed. Obviously by spending my 2.02 pick on him last year, I thought highly of him. His rookie season had a huge setback when he was shot in the pre-season. I wouldn't pay a 2.02 for him today, especially with a crowded receiver room including Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings and George Kittle, but I would still pay a 3rd to get him back on my roster.
  
  
• As for Roman Wilson (Pit), Malachi Corey (NYJ), Javon Baker (NE), Troy Franklin (Den), Devontez Walker (Bal), Brendon Rice (LAC), Jermaine Burton (Cin) and Malik Washington (Mia), none of them were involved enough their rookie year for me to be interested in them this year.

To summarize, here is what I might be willing to pay for the above players:

• 1st round pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• 2nd round pick: Jordan Addison, Zay Flowers, Rome Odunze and Rashee Rice
• 3rd round pick: Keon Coleman, Ricky Pearsall and Xavier Worthy
• Too Expensive: Puka Nacua, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, and Marvin Harrison Jr.
• Not worth the space on my roster: Josh Downs, Quentin Johnston, Jayden Reed, Marvin Mims Jr., Michael Wilson, Tank Dell, Jonathon Mingo, Kayshon Boutte, Cedric Tillman, Jalin Hyatt, Roman Wilson, Malachi Corey, Javon Baker, Troy Franklin, Devontez Walker, Brendon Rice, Jermaine Burton and Makik Washington

Again, I want to emphasize that I know what I am willing to offer is below market value, but that's the whole point. I want to try to take advantage of draft day hype to see if owners will give up players below market so they can get their rookie superstar that they are sure is way undervalued. This is once-a-year bargain shopping. Even if my offer is rejected, it might get me to the bargaining table and I end up with a different opportunity because the other owner really want some guy still on the board during the draft.

Success Rate vs Average Draft Position

Now, let's finish breaking down success rating versus ADP.

This is a break down of success rate by round:

• 1st: 17.5%
• 2nd 9.2%
• 3rd 6.7%

Here is the break down by every 9 picks instead of each round:

• 1-9: 19.3%
• 10-18: 10.6%
• 19-27: 6.5%
• 28-36: 7.6%

The following chart shows success rate versus ADP. The raw data is very bumpy, but the trend line shows a linear drop off from about 16% success for the first overall pick, down to about 4% success for the 36th pick.

Wrap-Up

Wide receiver is the greatest priority for my team and I have a very large arsenal of picks in a year which is believed to be loaded with rookie WR talent. With my homework done, knowing the success rate versus ADP and years of experience, I am coming to my draft well-prepared and excited to see what my team will look like after the draft.

With this said, I will follow my own rules during the draft. The first priority is always to try to trade up a pick into the future. So I will see if I can get a 2025 or 2026 1st round pick for my 2.02 pick and future 2nd round picks for my 3.02 and 3.03 picks. I would expect that out of my 8 draft picks, something like two might be used to trade forward and up, one might be used to trade acquire a 2nd or 3rd year player at a bargain and five might be used to actually draft rookies.

Naturally, maintaining flexibility across all potential scenarios—whether it involves trading for future picks, acquiring second and third-year receivers, or drafting rookies—is essential. Understanding the historical trends and having completed the necessary analysis, while also resisting the tendency to overvalue rookies, is key to achieving optimal enhancement for my team, particularly my wide receiver corps, post-draft.

Finally, there is always a chance I could snag the next Tyreek Hill or Puka Nacua from the waiver wire. The chance of becoming that fortunate individual in a league improve by staying active each week. And along the way I might get some WR2s and WR3s the build depth or that I can trade away for draft picks.

If you found this article helpful, here are some other articles that you might also find helpful:

Dynasty NFL: Who To Drop And How To Sell

My Dynasty FF Team Needs An RB1

Quarterback Carousel & Handcuffs