Full Series: QB(2025) RB(2025) WR(2024) TE(2024) Conclusion(2024)
Introduction
In this article, I describe my strategies for building a solid RB corps showing how I used these strategies to build my 2024 corps and to determine a strategy for 2025. I compare historical average draft position (ADP) to rookie RB success rate and I look at performance versus years in the NFL to determine how to most efficiently build my RB corps based on probability of success.
My 2024 RB Corps
Last year my RB corps included James Cook (Buf), Joe Mixon (Hou), Brian Robinson (Wsh), Jordan Mason (SF) and Jerome Ford (Cle). From Weeks 1 through 17, among RBs that were started, that group ranked in the top-6 eleven times, 7th to 12th twelve times, and as RB2s eight times. That's solid fantasy RB production.
I plan to write another article in the next few weeks about how I got my RB1s for 2024, similar to the How I Got My RB1 which describes how I built my RB corps for my 2023 campaign. However, I summarize here.
The key is that I built my RB corp efficiently. You will see that from this article, RBs tend to rise between their rookie and sophomore year. Prior to my 2023 campaign, I identified James Cook, Brian Robinson (behind aging Antonio Gibson) and Jerome Ford (behind Nick Chubb) as RBs that I thought had under-appreciated potential. I successfully targeted and added these players through very efficient trades.
Pre-Draft Trades:
| Gave Up | For |
| Miles Sanders 2024 3rd (low) |
James Cook 1.08 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire 2025 2nd (low) |
Jerome Ford 2025 3rd (top) |
Trades During the Draft:
| Gave Up | For |
| Darnell Mooney Jameson Williams 1.08 2.05 |
Brian Robinson Brandin Cooks 1.04 |
I recently traded away James Cook for the 1.02, 2.02 and a high 2026 1st this off-season. (I wasn't trying to sell him, but the offer was too good to refuse.) So if you track my earnings from trading away Miles Sanders (FA) and a low 2024 3rd, I have collected a 1.02, 1.08, 2.02 and a high 2026 1st. That's some serious bounty.
Prior to my 2024 campaign, I identified Jordan Mason as an RB with under-appreciated potential because he was a primary back-up behind the aging Christian McCaffrey. Believing that McCaffrey might not have a lot left in the tank, and also snagged Elijah Mitchell and Isaac Guerendo ahead of the 2024 season. I had the whole 49ers backfield waiting for McCaffrey to fade. Mitchell spent the whole year on IR. Guerendo had some hot games, but I reluctantly traded him away for a low 3rd round pick to make space on my roster for another need. I believe Guerendo is an average RB, but wish I still had him because he is in a great position and on a great team to pop this year.
Finally, my RB corps failed me in Week 6 (Mason was my best back and he scored only 9.2 fantasy points) and my team seemed to be on the fringe of tracking for the playoffs, so I bit the bullet and drew from my deep arsenal of draft picks and overspent to buy Joe Mixon. Specifically, I gave up Rasheen Ali (Bal), Luke McCaffrey (WR, Wsh), Ricky Pearsall (WR, SF), 1.08, 2.03 and 2.05 for Mixon and Jayden Reed (WR, GB). It wasn't a terrible trade, and Mixon certainly did his job from Week 7 through the playoffs. Because I use my picks so efficiently the rest of the year, and knowing my specific need, this trade made sense. I knew I was trading appreciating assets for a declining asset, but I also knew what I was getting. I wasn't making dart throws on rookies, I was buying exactly what my team needed to get to the playoffs.
My Current RB Corp and Draft Picks
As I prepare for our league's 2025 draft, I have the following picks:
2025: 1.02, 1.09, 2.02, 2.09, 3.02, 3.03, 3.09, 3.11
2026: 1st-high, 1st-mid, 1st-low, four 3rds
2027: 1st-low, 2nd-high, two 2nd-lows, 3rd
That's six 1sts, five 2nds and nine 3rds. Having all these picks is part of a continuous strategy which I describe in other articles such as How to Win Your Dynasty League, Dynasty NFL: Who To Drop And How To Sell, How To Own Your League's Waiver Wire and Dynasty Draft Strategy: A 21-Trade Salute. The accumulation of draft picks is an art that takes patience, requires consistent team management work and percolates from micro-moves.
My current RB corps is Joe Mixon, Brian Robinson, Jerome Ford and Elijah Mitchell. I recently traded away Jordan Mason and I am trying to also trade away Elijah Mitchell. If everything goes right, my current RB corps might be okay for 2025. However, it's more likely everything won't go right. My RB corps has these looming questions:
- Does Mixon have another year left in the tank?
- With 9-year veteran Austin Ekeler showing the effects of aging, Robinson has become the Commanders #1 RB going into 2025. If nothing changes, Robinson will likely be an RB2.
- Ford took the starting job when Nick Chubb went down last season. Going into his 8th year, will Chubb resume his starting role and/or will the Browns add another capable RB in the draft? Even if Ford remains the starting back into 2025, he is still only a low RB2-RB3.
The bottom line is that I need to add depth and RB1-potential youth to my RB corps, or I will be overpaying for another veteran RB later this season.
Now we will dive into the analytics.
Historical ADP Information
This is the historical ADP information of where running backs were drafted since 2014:
From 2016 through 2018, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, Aaron Jones, Saquon Barkley, James Conner and perhaps Nick Chubb seem to be fantasy viable heading into 2025. Although still fantasy studs, these are backs to build behind because they are coming near to the end of their career. Some are likely to be just one injury away.
Now let's dive into the statistics that can help us efficiently build a strong fantasy team RB corps.
Success Rate vs Years of Experience
Since we must start two RBs in my league, I valued the top 24 RBs, accordingly:
- Ranked 1-6: 1.00
- Ranked 7-12: 0.75
- Ranked 13-18: 0.50
- Ranked 19-24: 0.25
Then I took the integral of their results and got this chart:
The last row shows the success rate versus years of experience. Next I put this information into graphical form:
The historical data indicates that running backs peak in their second year and then drop off almost linearly every year after that, with none lasting 10 years.
Now looking at success rate vs ADP, here is the break down of RB success rate by round:
- 1st: 24.4%
- 2nd 6.0%
- 3rd 3.7%
If we break down success rate by the color banks in the chart above (every 9 picks) rather than each round we see the same pattern:
- 1-9: 25.5%
- 10-18: 11.5%
- 19-27: 4.2%
- 28-36: 3.8%
There is a strong correlation between draft pick and success rate. Generally we are making good assessments of RBs after the NFL draft, without the NFL prospects tactually taking any NFL snaps.
Given that RBs are drafted with high frequency in the first round, we have a decent data set, and we might get a better picture of the value of the top-6 picks by ADP. Here is a more granular breakdown of success rate versus ADP in the first round:
- 1.01: 48.1%
- 1.02: 44.6%
- 1.03-1.06: 18.7%
- 1.07-1.12: 15.0%
There is an especially high success rate with the first two picks.
The chart below shows the success rate for the first 12 picks, and I let Excel add a logarithmic trend line so you can see a smooth curve:
Conclusions / Strategy
Going into my 2025 rookie draft with the 1.02, 1.09, 2.02, 2.09, 3.02, 3.03, 3.09, 3.11 picks, I want to use these picks efficiently based on historical results.
The first thing I keep in mind during the draft is the rookie hype is at an all time high and because of that my draft picks will never be more valuable than they are during the draft. I try to take advantage of that. The draft isn't just for acquiring rookies, it is for getting the maximum value out of every pick by:
- trading for future picks
- trading for strategic target players, or
- making actual draft picks
I consider these three options in the order above at each pick. For example, if I can trade my 1.09 forward for a future 1st round pick, there is a 2/3rds chance it will be a higher pick. Or I could try to trade it for two 1sts or a 1st and a 2nd.
Because of the rookie hype, there is a good chance someone will believe they have identified an amazing value at 1.09 and be willing to give up significant future draft capital to get that rookie right then and there. My 2.02 can possibly be traded for a future first, my 2.09 for two 2nds or a higher 2nd and a 3rd, and so on. This is how I build my draft capital. It takes discipline. I need to let rookies that I want slip by with faith that I will have more and better opportunities in the future.
I typically don't trade a top-3 pick away. They are simply too valuable to take a chance that the future picks I would get in return would be much lower.
I can't finalize my draft plan until after the NFL draft, but if my dynasty draft were today, I would draft Ashton Jeanty (ADP 1.01) or Omarion Hampton (ADP 1.02) with my 1.02 pick.
I happen to be in a good spot with the 1.02 pick, but I will still be looking to add more RB talent later in the draft with the picks I am unable to trade away. And if you have a winning dynasty team, it isn't likely that you have a top-2 pick.
So let's take a look at the second option for expending my picks, to trade for a strategic player. I will try to identify running backs that might be undervalued and are in a position to establish themselves as the new #1 RBs for their teams when the older veteran players fade. Given the performance trend of RBs peaking in their 2nd year, I will focus on sophomore running backs. I will also try to identify 3-to-4-year running backs that are behind the 7 to 9 year veterans.
Sophomore RBs:
- *Trey Benson (Ari, 2024 ADP 2.12): Benson's 2024 season ended in December with an ankle injury. He didn't carve out much a role as the #2 RB behind James Conner. However, Conner is entering his 9th year, so if the Cardinals don't draft another RB, I might be interested in Benson if I can get him for a late 2nd or early 3rd round pick.
- *Isaac Guerendo (SF, 2024 ADP 3.10): Guerendo is currently the 49ers #2 RB behind Christian McCaffrey. I believe McCaffrey has faded, and after trading away Jordan Mason and Elijah Mitchell, Guerendo is in a prime spot to take over the #1 RB spot for the 49ers. He showed flashes last year, including RB1 performances in Weeks 8 and 14. However, after thinning their roster of two significant back up RBs, it seems likely the 49ers are planning to draft an RB. If my draft were today, I might be willing to spend a late 3rd round pick on Guerendo. If by chance the 49ers don't draft an RB on day 1 or 2, I might be willing to pay a low 2nd for Guerendo on draft day.
- Jonathon Brooks (Car, 2024 ADP 1.07): Brooks re-tore his ACL in December and is likely to miss most of the 2025 season. In the meantime Chuba Hubbard (5th year) and Rico Dowdle (6th year) are capable RBs. So I am not interested in Brooks except maybe for a bottom of the 3rd or as part of a package deal.
- Blake Corum (LAR, 2024 ADP 3.05): Corum's 2024 season also ended on IR, in January due to a fractured forearm. Corum was unimpressive in 2024 and is behind Kyren Williams (4th year). I am not interested in acquiring him.
- Rasheen Ali (Bal, 2024 ADP 3.12): I had high hopes Ali and he was briefly on my roster in 2024. However, he is now fourth in the Ravens RB pecking order. I am not interested in re-acquiring him.
- Bucky Irving (TB, 2024 ADP > 3rd): The "Bucky Irving" ship has already sailed. I would not be able to get him at a bargain, so I won't even try.
Young back-ups behind older backs not covered above (*):
- Jerome Ford (Cle, 2022 ADP > 3rd) behind Nick Chubb (8th year): He is already on my roster, but I would be willing to pay a late 3rd for him if we weren't.
- Dameon Pierce (Hou, 2022 ADP 2.04) behind Joe Mixon (9th year): Pierce rushed for 293 yards and 2 TDs on 40 carries (7.3 yards/carry) in 2024. If the Texans don't draft an RB I would be interested, and willing to pay a late 3rd round pick for him.
- Jordan Mason (Min, 2022 ADP > 3rd) behind Aaron Jones (9th year): Mason thrived spelling McCaffrey for the 49ers by rushing 789 yards and 3 TDs on 153 carries (5.2 yards/carry) and catching 11 of 14 targets for 91 yards. He got banged up mid-season and that slowed him down, opening the door for Guerendo, who also preformed admirably. However, the 49ers had a great o-line and the running backs are well-coached for an RB friendly scheme. I don't expect the same efficiency from Mason in Minnesota. If the 49ers thought Mason was special they wouldn't have traded him for basically a 5th round pick but would have found a way to keep him behind a questionable McCaffrey. I traded away Mason for a 2nd round pick because I believe this draft class has a lot of depth, so its unlikely he will come back to me. However, I would still be willing to pay a late 3rd pick for him if the Vikings don't pick up another running back.
- Emanuel Wilson (GB, 2023 ADP > 3rd) behind Josh Jacobs (7th year): Last year Wilson rushed for 502 yards and 4 TDs on 103 carries (4.9 yards/carry), and added 11 receptions for 48 yards and a TD on 14 targets. Marshawn Lloyd (sophomore) returns in 2025, and could claim the RB #2 behind Jacobs, but Wilson is available on waivers in my league and I will definitely scoop him up after the draft if I can get to him before anyone else does.
- Sincere McCormick (LV, 2022 ADP > 3rd) behind Raheem Mostert (11th year): McCormick rushed for 183 yards on 39 carries (4.7 yards/carry). Mostert didn't do much in 2024 and if McCormick couldn't get more opportunity then, I don't see him having much upside now. Still, if the Raiders don't draft an RB, its possible I would be willing to grab McCormick off waivers after the draft if he were available there.
- Kendre Miller (NO, 2023 ADP > 3rd) behind Alvin Kamara (9th year): Miller was injured for much of the 2024 season. He rushed for 148 yards and a TD on 39 carries (3.8 yards/carry) and caught 5 of 8 targets for 33 yards last year. I am not interested in Miller.
- Will Shipley (Phi, 2024 ADP > 3rd) behind Saquon Barkley (8th year): The Eagles added AJ Dillon this off-season and Shipley didn't do much in 2024 (82 yards on 30 carries), so I am not interested in Shipley.
- Tyjae Spears (Ten, 2023 ADP 2.07) behind Tony Pollard (7th year): Spears rushed for 312 yards and 4 TDs on 84 carries (3.7 yards/carry) and caught 30 of 35 targets for 224 yards and a TD. Spears is a good compliment to Pollard, but I don't see him as having RB1 potential. I am not interested in trying to trade for Spears.
Now let's get into this year's rookie draft.
Will any of the above become the next Austin Ekeler, Aaron Jones or Kyren Williams? I don't know, but if they do, I want them to be on my roster when they do.
I believe the RB 2017 draft class gave us several staple RB1s. These running backs are fading away. I believe to 2025 class has exceptional RB depth and so this is a good draft for NFL and fantasy teams alike to restock on young RB talent. I will especially be looking for solid prospects that land on teams where they will either start right away or be back ups to one of the above aging players.
Depending on how much space I have on my roster and what rookies are on the board at specific points in the draft, I would consider trading up or down in the draft to increase my overall chance of getting a valuable RB. For example, a 2nd round pick has a 6% success rate. If I could trade two 2nds for a 1st, then I am trading two 6% chances (a 12% chance) for a 24% chance. However, I also have other positions I need to fill, and the success rate vs ADP is different. So I can't decide such a strategy until I see the big picture for all positions.
If you found this article helpful, here are some other articles that you might also find helpful:
Dynasty Draft Strategy: A Tale of Ten Trades
