Week 15 brought fireworks, with MVP candidates Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, and Jared Goff lighting up the scoreboard. You likely fell short or barely cashed if you didn't have one. This high-scoring trend led to six teams crossing the 30-point threshold and three topping 40 points. Here’s hoping Week 16 continues the scoring bonanza!
QB - Josh Allen - 44.28, Jayden Daniels - 23.64
RB - James Conner - 33.8, Rico Dowdle - 17.9
WR - Brian Thomas Jr - 35.5, Terry McLaurin - 26.3, Ladd McConkey - 16.8, Jerry Jeudy - 24.8
TE - Mark Andrews - 10.4, Trey McBride - 17.7, Jonnu Smith - 19.8
Before we start with Week 15, I’ll share my best-scoring GPP lineup.
QB - Kyler Murray - 10.06
RB - Jahmyr Gibbs - 28.4
RB - Jaleel McLaughlin - 6.4
WR - Garrett Wilson - 14.6
WR - Adam Thielen - 10.1
WR - Keon Coleman - 7.4
TE - Trey McBride - 17.7
FLEX - James Conner - 33.8
D/ST - Dolphins - 7
I thought I had a solid lineup, but it didn’t cash. Kyler Murray was hurt early, and the Cardinals dominated, which hurt my stack. The same went for the underperformance of McLaughlin and Coleman, not to mention the major disappointment from Thielen’s lack of upside. However, McBride and Conner both had strong performances. Ultimately, this lineup only posted 135.46 points.
Time to look at the data and improve for Week 16.
Week 16 DraftKings Slate
Here’s a breakdown of the Week 16 slate with games to target:
ARI @ CAR – 47 O/U
Implied Totals: ARI 25.5; CAR 21.5
PHI @ WAS – 45.5 O/U
Implied Totals: PHI 24.25; WAS 21.25
SF @ MIA – 46 O/U
Implied Totals: SF 22.25; MIA 23.75
CLE @ CIN – 48 O/U
Implied Totals: CLE 20.5; CIN 27.5
LAR @ NYJ – 46.5 O/U
Implied Totals: LAR 25; NYJ 21.5
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterback
Josh Allen ($8,700)
Allen has scored 99 fantasy points over his last two games. You read that right, 99 fantasy points! Even though RB James Cook was good last week, Allen is the RB1 for the Bills. He should continue to make his MVP case against a hapless Patriots defense. The Patriots slot in 30th in EPA/play, 31st in EPA/dropback, and 29th in dropback success rate.
Jalen Hurts ($7,800)
Hurts is back on track, scoring 24+ fantasy points in his last two games. With the Eagles needing a win against the Commanders, Hurts should be involved in a high-scoring affair. The Commanders’ defense ranks 23rd in EPA/play and 20th in EPA/dropback.
Aaron Rodgers ($5,600)
You read that correctly, Jets QB Aaron Rodgers makes the cash list this week. He has scored 50 fantasy points over his last two games, including 4 TD passes during that same timeframe. The Jets' rushing attack has been lackluster, ranking 19th in EPA/rush and rushing success rate. Also, the Rams' defense can be beaten via the air or ground as evidenced by them being 23rd in success rate, 27th in EPA/dropback, 22nd in dropback success rate, and 27th in EPA/play.
Running Back
James Conner ($7,100)
After a dominant Week 15, Conner’s price is up, but he still has an amazing matchup against the Panthers, who rank 31st in EPA/rush and 32nd in rushing success rate.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,500)
Gibbs is a candidate for lock-button status this week. Teammate David Montgomery is on IR and RBs Craig Reynolds and Sione Vaki are backups. This is the workload we’ve been waiting for and now is the chance for Gibbs to ascend to top 5 RB status. Aside from the workload, Gibbs also gets a fantastic matchup against the Bears, who rank 27th in EPA/rush and 19th in rushing success rate.
Jerome Ford ($5,600)
Ford is a high-variance player and if he performs well will be a steal at his price. I think he’s a great option, especially with all the high-priced WRs this week. He rushed for 84 yards in Chubb’s absence in Week 15 and gets a cakewalk matchup in Week 16 against the Bengals. Those Bengals rank 30th in EPA/rush and 31st in rushing success rate.
There are not as many injuries in Week 16 at the RB position, so the main ones to watch are Seattle's Kenneth Walker and Tennessee's Tony Pollard.
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams ($7,100)
Jets QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Davante Adams are locked in. Adams ranks 12th in WOPR and 4th in target share among all WRs. Additionally, he has double-digit targets in five of his last six games and posted back-to-back games with over 100 yards receiving.
Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,300)
Thomas has been awesome this season considering everything he’s had to deal with. Also, now that Thomas and QB Mac Jones have had some game reps, they’ve been connecting more lately. Thomas scored 35+ fantasy points last week and has 36 targets over his last three games. Additionally, he should continue his dominant ways against a Maxx Crosby-less Raiders defense. The Raiders sit 20th in EPA/play, 26th in EPA/dropback, and 25th in dropback success rate.
Jauan Jennings ($5,900)
Don’t let Jennings' bad-weather games dissuade you from using him this week. Jennings leads all 49ers in air yard share, target share, and WOPR. He’s been QB Brock Purdy’s go-to guy too, as evidenced by his 28.5% targets/route run and being 10th in red zone targets. Miami is middle-of-the-pack against the pass, sitting 16th in EPA/dropback and 21st in dropback success rate.
Other options: Ja’Marr Chase ($8,500), AJ Brown ($7,800), Keenan Allen ($5,300)
Tight End
Trey McBride ($6,200)
Arizona TE Trey McBride is worth every penny this week. With QB uncertainty overshadowing Raiders's TE Brock Bowers, McBride is the top-tier play this week. Additionally, he leads all TEs in WOPR and target share. He’s also smashing in efficiency, ranking 3rd in EPA, 5th in fantasy points per route, 2nd in yards per route run, 2nd in yards/team pass attempt, and 3rd in target rate (31.7%). McBride’s efficiency and volume will be put on full display against a Panthers defense that is allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points to the TE position.
Jonnu Smith ($5,500)
Miami TE Jonnu Smith has been a consistent producer, with five consecutive games scoring 13+ fantasy points. Despite a tough matchup against the 49ers, his volume makes him a solid option.
Brenton Strange ($3,500)
Jags TE Brenton Strange is a cheap option with major upside, especially with teammate Evan Engram out. The Raiders are allowing the 5th-most fantasy points to TEs, making him an intriguing play at his price.
D/ST
Indianapolis Colts ($3,000)
The Colts are middle of the pack in pressuring QBs and yet, the Titans offense is putrid, making the Colts viable as they sit 19th in defensive pressure rate. Additionally, the Titans are allowing defensive pressure at the 8th highest rate in the league at 24.4%. There’s plenty of opportunity here, especially against career journeyman Mason Rudolph.
Favorite stacks:
1. Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins/Mike Gesicki. Jerome Ford is the only Browns player I’d think about using as a bring-back this week. QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is going to start for the Browns, which is a serious downgrade from QB Jameis Winston.
2. I like both Stafford stacks and Aaron Rodgers stacks. The Jets are tougher against the pass than the run but were just torched by an under-manned Jaguars team, and the Rams have the receiving talent to be a problem. Also, the Rams’ defensive struggles continue against aerial attacks, leaving the door open for another huge performance for WR Davante Adams and potentially allowing WR Garrett Wilson to ascend. This game has a great “grab bag” of plays to use.
3. Kyler Murray + James Conner and Trey McBride. The Cardinals onslaught stack failed last week but I’m going right back to it. This matchup is too juicy to pass up. Also, Arizona's defense has been getting beat lately, so Panthers's RB Chuba Hubbard and WR Adam Thielen are live as bringbacks, although I wouldn’t use both in the same lineup.
4. Jayden Daniels + Terry McLaurin. A simple stack that should prove to be very effective. Per Dwain McFarland of FantasyLife, Commander's WR Dyami Brown ran the 2nd-most WRs routes with teammate Noah Brown out, so he also makes for an intriguing double stack option. WR AJ Brown or RB Saquon Barkley also make for nice bring-back options on the Eagles' side.
5. Jared Goff + Amon-Ra St. Brown + Jahmyr Gibbs/Sam LaPorta/Jameson Williams. Lions’ onslaught stacks are definitely on the table with a trip to Chicago this Sunday, and QB Jared Goff could be under-rostered with the “outdoor” narrative alive and well. However, OC Ben Johnson will find ways to help Goff succeed.
GPP Plays:
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts ($7,800)
Philly QB Jalen Hurts has 53 fantasy points over his last two outings and should come in under-rostered with analytics leaning toward a big Saquon game. Hurts always has the ability to run in multiple TDs and has stud WR AJ Brown to punish teams out wide. The Commander's defense ranks 23rd in EPA/play and 20th in EPA/dropback.
For other recommendations, check out the Stack section of the article.
Running Back
Jonathan Taylor ($6,900)
Colt's RB Jonathan Taylor looked a gift horse in the mouth last week by dropping the football before crossing the end zone and I think the visceral reaction to that play warrants using him again this week. Also, despite his one bad play, Taylor has 203 yards over his past two games while being back to 20+ carries/game. Even though the matchup is bad, Taylor is essential to the Colts' offense and should be low-rostered.
James Cook ($7,000)
Bill's RB James Cook is an intriguing GPP play this week. With QB Josh Allen dominating headlines, it’s easy to forget Cook’s 29-point fantasy outing last week. There appears to be some weather on the way for this game (snow) and the Patriots can’t stop the run. New England ranks 20th in EPA/rush and 21st in rushing success rate, which makes Cook a sneaky stack WITH Josh Allen if you’re feeling spicy.
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill ($6,900)
I know Miami WR Tyreek Hill had a bad outing last week (have him in redraft). However, I would attribute that to Texan's QB Derek Stingley elevating his play than Hill playing poorly. Hill still had 7 targets and gets a 49ers team in Week 16 that is on the brink of playoff elimination. He continues to lead the Dolphins in air-yard share, target share, and WOPR, meaning he still has the potential to have one of his blow-up games.
Amon-Ra St. Brown ($7,900)
The Sun God erupted last week with 18 targets, which he converted into a 14/193/1 line. Additionally, the good news continues as the Bears are allowing the 6th-most fantasy points to the slot position where ARSB dominates (8th in slot snaps among all WRs).
Other options:
Puka Nacua ($8,000)/Cooper Kupp ($6,500)
The Rams receiving core gets a great matchup in Week 16, as the Jets are allowing the most points to the slot position. With Kupp ranking 8th in slot snaps and Nacua still mixing in the slot occasionally, the Rams WRs are both great Week 16 plays.
Tight End
Chig Okonkwo ($3,400)
Titan's TE Chig Okonkwo is strictly a matchup play even though the Colts' defense is allowing the 3rd-most fantasy points to the TE position. This is mainly due to QB Mason Rudolph being back at the helm. Despite the QB downgrade, Okonkwo can provide some bang for your buck and save some crucial salary.
D/ST
Cincinnati Bengals ($3,300)/ Jacksonville Jaguars ($2,900)
The Bengals and Jags get good matchups against backup QBs that have been terrible. Both of these defenses are not great but the matchup is good enough to get the job done.
Bargain Bin (sub $5,000 players that can score over 10 fantasy points):
With Washington TE Zach Ertz leaving injured, Baltimore TE Mark Andrews was the only selection last week to get to 10 points. Time to identify some better plays.
WR Josh Downs ($4,900), RB Tyjae Spears ($4,900), TE Sam LaPorta ($4,700), WR DeMario Douglas ($4,400).
Titan's RB Spears is the best play of the bunch if starter Tony Pollard misses. The Colt's Downs and New England's Douglas are nice options that are getting solid volume. Lions' TE LaPorta is a gamble as Detriot has several options they can go to. However, if the Lions' defense is unable to stop a bad Chicago offense, that fast pace will likely help pad LaPorta's final statline.
Have a great Week 16 of NFL DFS! Make sure to go to advancedsportslogic.com and checkout The Machine – DFS Lineup Optimizer
By Clayton Jones aka @FFPulse88 on Threads and BlueSky.
