Week 11 kicked off with a 44-point total on Thursday Night Football and ended the same way on Monday Night. Unlike Week 10, 9 games (including TNF, SNF, and MNF) hit the over. Some big scores came from stars like Lions QB Jared Goff (37.58) and Raiders TE Brock Bowers (34.3), while Saints TE Taysom Hill stunned with 46.52 points. Let’s recap Week 11.

QB - Matthew Stafford - 27.8, Tua Tagovailoa - 23.52, Drake Maye -19.98, Brock Purdy - 19.36 

RB - Josh Jacobs - 23.4, DeVon Achane - 20.5 

WR - Puka Nacua - 28.3, George Pickens - 16.9, Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 24.8, Courtland Sutton - 14.8, Elijah Moore - 18.6 

TE - Hunter Henry - 12.3

Before we start on Week 12, I’ll share my best-scoring GPP lineup.

QB - Brock Purdy - 19.36 

RB - Rhamondre Stevenson - 10.9 

RB - Kenneth Walker - 16 

WR - Jauan Jennings - 20.1 

WR- Cedric Tillman - 6.2 

WR- Ricky Pearsall - 0 

TE - Tucker Kraft- 0 

FLEX- Christian McCaffrey- 14.6 

D/ST- Raiders - 1 

This lineup didn’t cash, as I took a risk with a big 49ers/Seahawks stack. Unfortunately, that game hit the under with just 43 points. I liked the Browns WR Cedric Tillman's play—he saw 8 targets but only caught 3 passes. He didn’t compare to WR Jerry Jeudy (29.2) and WR Elijah Moore (18.6). Stevenson had a solid matchup but underperformed. Packers TE Tucker Kraft, despite being cheap, didn’t deliver. I also thought the Raiders' defense could generate pressure and turnovers, but Miami HC Mike McDaniel and QB Tua Tagovailoa had other plans.

Week 12 DraftKings Slate

Games to target:

1. KC @ CAR – 42.5 O/U 

Implied totals: KC 26.75; CAR 15.75 

2. DET @ IND – 50.5 O/U 

Implied totals: DET 29; IND 21.5 

3. ARI @ SEA – 47.5 O/U 

Implied totals: ARI 23.25; SEA 24.25 

4. NE @ MIA – 46 O/U 

Implied totals: NE- 19.5; MIA- 26.5

Top Cash Plays:

Quarterbacks

Tua Tagovailoa ($5,800)  

Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa dropped 288 yards and 3 TDs against the Raiders last week and gets an even better matchup this week against the Patriots. New England's defense sits 28th in EPA/play, 29th in EPA/dropback, and 25th in dropback success rate. I also like this spot for Tua since it’s a home game for Miami. 

Jared Goff ($6,600)  

Lions QB Jared Goff smashed last week with over 400 yards passing and 4 TDs and gets another decent matchup against the Colts in a dome. The Lions offense ranks 4th in EPA/play, 3rd in success rate, 3rd in EPA/dropback, and 1st in dropback success rate. 

Running Back

Bucky Irving ($5,300) 

Tampa RB Bucky Irving is a screaming value in Week 12. He’s scored 15+ fantasy points in four of his last five games and isn't taking zeroes in the passing game, with 16 targets over his past four games. I mostly like him for his matchup this week. The Giants, Irving’s Week 12 opponent, sit 27th in EPA/rush and 24th in rushing success rate. Remember, Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard crushed the Giants defense to 153 yards and 1 rushing TD.  

De'Von Achane ($7,500)  

Miami RB De'Von Achane has scored 20+ fantasy points in three of his last four games. He is positioned 4th among all RBs in WOPR (22%) and tied for 3rd in target share at 16%. With QBTua Taigovailoa back, Achane has been thriving and I expect that to continue in Week 12, as the Patriots rank 22nd in EPA/rush and 20th in rushing success rate. 

James Conner ($6,500)  

Arizona RB James Conner is as steady as they come, as he’s scored 14+ fantasy points in every game except two. The Cardinals offense ranks 9th in EPA/rush and 8th in rushing success rate. In addition to the consistent points, Conner has 12+ carries in every game except two to go along with 20 targets over his last five games.  

Other options:

Joe Mixon ($8,000)  

The Titans’ defense has been slipping lately. In fact, they’ve allowed 100+ rushing yards in three of their last four games. Texans RB Joe Mixon has five straight games with 20+ carries and has accumulated 100+ rushing yards in five of his previous six games. With Houston QB CJ Stroud struggling, I expect the Texans to continue to lean on Mixon.

Wide Receiver

Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,300)  

Seattle WR JSN is an incredible value this week. Even with the return of WR DK Metcalf, JSN still earned 11 targets. Another reason he's one of my favorite plays is the matchup and his role. JSN has worked out of the slot on 79.8% of his snaps, #1 in the NFL. Combine that with the Cardinals' defense allowing the 5th most points to the slot position and you have the perfect matchup for success. 

Jauan Jennings ($5,600)  

San Fran WR Jennings has ascended since WR Brandon Aiyuk’s terrible injury, including 22 targets over his past two games. Jennings also has 3 games of double-digit targets. Even though the 49ers offense has struggled they are still operating through him. While that may change when the team regains its full offensive strength, for Week 12 The Packers' pass defense is beatable, ranking 30th in dropback success rate and 29th in success rate. 

Malik Nabers ($7,400) 

Even with terrible QB play, Giants rookie WR Malik Nabers is succeeding. He has 34 targets over his last three games and still leads all WRs in WOPR (89%) and target share (37%). Additionally, Nabers should flourish in Week 12 against an awful Bucs defense, as their defense ranks 29th in EPA/play, 30th in EPA/dropback, and 32nd in dropback success rate. 

Tight End

Travis Kelce ($5,800) 

We’ve waited all season for the Chiefs’ offense to break out and if it doesn’t happen this week, chances are slim of it ever happening this year. When it comes to the TEs, Chiefs Travis Kelce is tied for 1st in WOPR (57%) and 4th in target share (24%) among all at the position. Those stats should go a long way against an awful Panthers defense that sits 31st in EPA/play and EPA/dropback as well as 27th in dropback success rate.  

Theo Johnson ($2,900)  

Giants TE Theo Johnson makes for an intriguing cheap option in Week 12, as he’s accumulated 16 targets over his last three weeks and gets a phenomenal matchup against the Bucs. Naturally, the Bucs are tied for 4th in giving up points to TEs.

D/ST

Minnesota Vikings ($3,400) 

The Vikings' defense continues to rank 1st in pressure rate (29.6%) while the Bears, who have struggled offensively, are allowing pressure at the 7th highest rate (24.3%). Chicago's offense is still in turmoil, ranking 24th in EPA/play, 23rd in EPA/dropback, and 26th in dropback success rate.  

Favorite stacks:

1. Kyler Murray + Marvin Harrison Jr and/or James Conner or Trey McBride. You can also use Seattle pieces (JSN, Kenneth Walker) to stack up this game.   

2. Patrick Mahomes + Travis Kelce and/or Xavier Worthy. After getting beat by the Bills, I have a hunch Mahomes and Company are going to light up the scoreboard.   

3. Brock Purdy + Jauan Jennings and/or CMC. There are also good options on the Packer's side if you want to make a nice game stack and get more unique.  

4. Bo Nix + Courtland Sutton with Brock Bowers bring back. I like this stack this week as it opens up lots of possibilities because of the salary savings. 

GPP Plays:

Quarterbacks

Bo Nix ($6,300) 

Broncos QB Bo Nix clobbered a weak Falcons defense in Week 11 and gets another strong matchup against the Raiders in Week 12. The same Raiders’ defense allowed the Dolphins to hang 34 points on them, including 288 passing yards and 3 TDs from Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa. Additionally, the Raiders’ defense ranks 23rd in EPA/play, 26th in EPA/dropback, and 28th in dropback success rate. 

Baker Mayfield ($6,100) 

Bucs QB Baker Mayfield has had two down games lately (18 and 8.94 fantasy points). However, he gets stud WR Mike Evans back in action for Week 12. The Bucs' offense ranks 7th in EPA/play, 9th in EPA/dropback, and 7th in dropback success rate. Mayfield had 5 straight games of 23+ fantasy points before running into Weeks 9 & 10. 

Running Back

Kenneth Walker ($6,900)  

Seattle RB Kenneth Walker has had a rough stretch his past three games, scoring fewer than 14 points in each game, and I think he gets off the skid this week. The Cardinals' defense ranks 26th in EPA/rush and rushing success rate. Additionally, Walker is still getting a strong workload, as evidenced by his highest snap shares in Weeks 9 and 11.  

David Montgomery ($6,700)/Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,300) 

It seems that in the past few weeks having one of the two Lions RBs is essential to winning. Detroit RB Jahmyr Gibbs brings the explosive plays, and Lions RB David Montgomery brings the possibility of a 2 TD game. With the Lions offense sitting 2nd in EPA/rush and rushing success rate, you can’t go wrong with the dynamic duo.

Other Options:

Brian Robinson Jr. ($5,600)  

Commanders RB Brian Robinson Jr. is in a great spot against the Cowboys this week. With QB Jayden Daniels being injured, I anticipate the Commanders relying on the ground game to get the win. The Cowboys' defense sits 32nd in EPA/rush and 28th in rushing success rate. With Robinson, we’re hoping for a 2 TD game, as he isn’t involved much in the passing scheme with teammate Austin Ekeler around.

Wide Receivers

Xavier Worthy ($5,000) 

What better spot to get the rookie involved in the offense than an exhibition game against the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers' defense ranks 31st in EPA/play and 31st in EPA/dropback. Mahomes and Worthy have missed several big plays the past few weeks but now is the time for that to get resolved.  

Tyreek Hill ($7,200) 

Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill has not been nearly as good as he was last year but in DFS we play week to week, and this is a great week for him. The New England defense ranks 28th in EPA/play, 29th in EPA/dropback, and 25th in dropback success rate. Hill is still holding onto a top-20 WOPR and should increase that ranking this week. 

Other options:

Marvin Harrison Jr. ($6,100)

The Cardinals offense has been cooking lately, with WR Marvin Harrison Jr. being the special ingredient. Outside of a rough matchup against the Bears, Harrison scored 42 points between Weeks 8 & 10. He also had 12 targets over those two games with 2 receiving TDs. 

Mike Evans ($7,000) 

In Weeks 4 & 5, Bucs WR Mike Evans combined for 46 fantasy points on 21 targets. He now gets a Giants team that’s looking toward 2025, as their defense sits 22nd in EPA/play and 20th in success rate.

Tight Ends

Sam LaPorta ($4,300) 

The Colts are allowing the 7th most fantasy points to TEs, and Detroit's Sam LaPorta is a risky play with WR Jameson Williams back from suspension and yet, the matchup is good. I suspect LaPorta will be low-rostered. 

Zach Ertz ($3,800) 

QB Jayden Daniels appears injured and is struggling to throw deep, so dumping the ball to TE Zach Ertz is a smart play. For context, Ertz has 27 targets over his last four games. The Cowboys, Ertz's opponent in Week 12, rank 25th in EPA/dropback and sit 16th in fantasy points allowed to TEs.  

D/ST

Denver Broncos ($2,500)

The Broncos are providing pressure at the 4th highest rate (26.8%) and get a turnover-prone QB in Gardner Minshew. Denver's defense ranks 4th in EPA/play, 3rd in EPA/dropback, and 5th in both success rate and dropback success rate. Minshew is going to need to ice up after Week 12.  

Kansas City Chiefs ($3,900), Detroit Lions ($3,700), Houston Texans ($3,600) 

I like these defenses, but they're pricey. With many still hunting for cheaper options, choosing a more expensive defense could be an interesting game theory play.

Bargain Bin (sub $5,000 players that can score over 10 fantasy points)

Browns WR Elijah Moore and Patriots TE Hunter Henry were cut from the bargain bin last week so let’s get after it again this week.  

TE Sam LaPorta ($4,300), TE Jonnu Smith ($4,100), TE Zach Ertz ($3,800), WR DeMario Douglas ($4,500), WR Rome Odunze ($4,800) 

Douglas and Odunze are intriguing at their prices, especially Odunze with 29 targets in the last four weeks. Douglas has seen more action in the Patriots offense, with 21 targets over the past three weeks. Jonnu has also been heavily involved in the Dolphins offense, earning 39 targets in his last 6 games.

Have a great Week 12 of NFL DFS! Make sure to go to advancedsportslogic.com and check out The Machine – DFS Lineup Optimizer. 

By Clayton Jones aka @FFPulse88 on Threads.