Week 8 aka "TE day", is finally in the books and much like the name suggests, all the TEs went crazy. Also, Week 8 was an interesting slate with options galore and minimal injuries (please be ok Stefon Diggs). Additionally, this past week is a good learning experience, so let’s review how I performed.
QB - Bo Nix- 29.76, Lamar Jackson- 24.16, Kyler Murray - 25.18,
RB - Jahmyr Gibbs - 23.3, D’Andre Swift - 21.9, De’Von Achane - 26.7, Rachaad White - 16.7, Joe Mixon - 26.4
WR - Brian Thomas Jr.- 15, Cedric Tillman - 28.9, Garrett Wilson - 19.3, Romeo Doubs - 17.4
TE- David Njoku - 17.1, Cade Otton - 29.1, Sam LaPorta - 16.8, Tucker Kraft - 16.8
D/ST- Chargers - 12
Before we start on Week 9, I’ll share my best scoring GPP lineup.
QB - Kyler Murray - 25.18
RB - De’Von Achane - 23.7
RB - De’Andre Swift - 21.9
WR - Marvin Harrison Jr. - 23.1
WR - Tyreek Hill - 10.2
WR - Cedric Tillman - 25.4
TE - Trey McBride - 19.9
FLEX - Garrett Wilson - 16.8
D/ST- Bears- 3
This lineup finished 3rd in the FanDuel $1 Squib, and was an awesome lineup aside from 2 bad moves. The Cardinals stack (Kyler Murray + Marvin Harrison Jr. + Trey McBride) totaled up to 4% rostered, which is insanely good! Achane, Swift and Tillman were all excellent plays as well.
The only bad plays were Garrett Wilson and the Bears defense. I’m not sure what possessed me to play the Chicago D, but it turned out to be a poor choice, as there were plenty of better (and cheaper) options available. I liked the Wilson play because the Patriots defense has been bad (including rookie CB Christian Gonzalez) lately. However, there were several better options at that price point as well.
The main takeaway here is that on bigger slates it’s not necessary to over-stack or onslaught, all though doing so is likely to provide good results. For example, with another team I used Joe Burrow with Ja’Marr Chase and Andre Iosivas as my primary stack. However, due to many other (and better) available optoins, jamming in Iosivas was a bad move. I should've just stuck with Burrow and Chase.
I’ve been close to taking a down a GPP the past two weeks (hopefully you have too), so let’s see if the breakthrough comes in Week 9!
It’s time for the Halloween candy edition of Clay’s DFS Plays!
Week 9 DraftKings slate
Games to target:
1. DAL @ ATL – 52 O/U
Implied totals: DAL 24.75; ATL 27.25
2. LAR @ SEA – 48.5 O/U
Implied totals: LAR 25.25; SEA 23.25
3. WAS @ NYG – 43.5 O/U
Implied totals: WAS 23; NYG 20
4. JAX @ PHI – 45.5 O/U
Implied totals: JAX- 19; PHI- 26.5
5. DET @ GB – 48.5
Implied totals: DET- 26; GB- 22.5
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterbacks
Jayden Daniels ($7,500): Snickers Bar
Daniels is becoming inevitable, as he’s scored 20+ fantasy points in every game this season except for two. The Commanders offense ranks 1st in EPA/play, EPA/drop back, and 4th in success rate and drop back success rate. The Giants are in the middle of the pack defensively per EPA/play, success rate and EPA/drop back, meaning Daniels shouldn’t meet much resistance in Week 9. Much like a Snickers, Daniels will be popular and leave your DFS lineup feeling satisfied.
Jalen Hurts ($7,800): Reese’s Pieces
Hurts had a big Week 8 thanks to 3 rushing TDs. Even though that level of production is unsustainable, a Week 9 matchup against the Jaguars is a nice consolation prize. The Jaguars defense ranks 32nd in EPA/play, EPA/drop back and 27th in drop back success rate. As a result, Hurts strong floor makes him a great option. Reese’s Pieces are delicious and high in demand much like Hurts' fantasy points.
Running Back
Alvin Kamara ($7,800): Reese’s Cup
Kamara gets a sensational upcoming matchup against the Carolina Panthers in Week 9. He leads all RBs in WOPR and target share, which should correlate well with the Panthers defense ranking 29th in EPA/rush and 30th in rushing success rate. The Saints back should dominate and have an outstanding day, as attacking the Panthers defense is similar to Reese’s Cups. Reliable and always a hit.
Kyren Williams ($8,000): M&Ms
Williams is expensive, but he’s money in the bank. He has 20+ carries in four out of his last five games, and has scored a TD in every game this season. However, an interesting stat to keep an eye on is Williams’ targets. Even with the return of WR's Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, Willams still earned 7 targets, his most for the year. The Seahawks, William’s opponent in Week 9, rank 27th in EPA/rush and 29th in rushing success rate. Williams is live to score multiple times, much like a bag of M&Ms.
D'Andre Swift ($6,400): Hot Tamales
After a putrid 3 weeks, Swift has been on fire lately with 4 consecutive weeks of 20+ fantasy points, and has compiled 70+ rushing yards with a score in his past four games. In Week 9, Swift draws a matchup against the Arizona Cardinals, who just allowed the Dolphins to gash them for 150 yards and 2 TDs. Additionally, Arizona ranks 24th in EPA/rush and 25th in rushing success rate.
Other options:
Bijan Robinson ($7,400): Twix
The Cowboys rank 23rd in EPA/rush and 31st in rushing success rate.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,600): Sour Patch Kids
Gibbs has been insanely efficient, averaging 7.7 and 11.5 yards per carry in his past two games. With David Montgomery still ailing from his Week 7 injury, Gibbs should crush again in Week 9. For reference, the Packers rank 20th in rushing success rate.
Wide Receiver
A.J. Brown ($8,100): Milky Way
Brown leads all WRs in WOPR and air yards share (56%) while sitting 2nd in target share (36%). The Eagles face the Jaguars in Week 9, who sit 32nd in EPA/play, 32nd in EPA/drop back, and 27th in drop back success rate. Akin to a Milky Way’s caramel, nougat, and chocolate combination, AJ Brown’s stats and matchup mix perfectly together.
Calvin Ridley ($5,700): Candy Corn
Ridley has 32 targets over his past three games, including 15 in Week 8. Additionally, the Titan’s defense has started slipping lately, forcing them to pass early and often. For Week 9, the Titans get to face the Patriots, whose secondary has been a real liability as of late. Morever, the Patriots rank 28th in EPA/play, 25th in success rate, 29th in EPA/drop back and drop back success rate. Ridley’s volume and quality of targets parallels well to Candy Corn’s volume and acquired taste.
Ladd McConkey ($5,600): Hershey’s Cookies’n’Creme
McConkey has 6+ targets in six of his last 7 games, including Week 8, where he showed off his red zone prowess with 2 TD catches. McConkey leads the Chargers in WOPR and target share, and should put those numbers to use against the Browns in Week 9. The Browns aren’t the best matchup however, as they rank 20th in EPA/drop back. New to the scene and showing out, McConkey is akin to Hershey’s Cookies’n’Crème bar.
Other options:
Tee Higgins ($6,400), volume with upside similar to Skittles,
Cedric Tillman ($4,300)/Elijah Moore ($4,200), cheap and effective like Hershey Kisses.
Tight End
Brock Bowers ($6,000): Starburst
The only TE that didn’t show out on national TE day was Bowers. Howver, in Week 9 he has a great chance to rebound against a Bengals defense that is allowing the 7th most fantasy points to TEs. The Bengals also rank 27th in EPA/play, 30th in success rate, 22nd in EPA/drop back and 21st in drop back success rate. On top of that, Bowers is tied for 2nd in WOPR and target share among all TEs. Even though Bower’s QB can be sticky, he can still produce (juicy flavor) fantasy points.
Sam LaPorta ($4,800): Mini Hershey Bars
Lions TE Sam LaPorta had 6 targets in his 1st game without WR Jameson Williams (suspension), and that was in a blowout against the pathetic Titans. In Week 9, Detroit gets the division rival Packers in what should be a highly competitive tilt. The Packers are allowing the 10th most fantasy points to TEs as well as ranking 28th in success rate and drop back success rate. While he hasn't been as good as last season (full Hershey bar), LaPorta should succeed with Williams again shooting himself in the foot.
D/ST
Washington Commanders ($3,400)
The Commanders faceoff against a Giants offense that is allowing defensive pressure at the 6th highest rate (24.7%) among all NFL teams. Additionally, Washington is generating pressure at the 12th highest rate in the NFL.
Favorite stacks:
1. Josh Allen + Amari Cooper and/or Keon Coleman with De’Von Achane/Tyreek Hill/Raheem Mostert bring back.
2. Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase and/or Tee Higgins with Brock Bowers bring back.
3. Jordan Love (if healthy) + Romeo Doubs and/or Tucker Kraft with Brian Thomas Jr and/or Evan Engram bring back.
4. Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb and/or Jake Ferguson with Bijan Robinson and/or Drake London/Kyle Pitts bring back.
GPP Plays:
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott ($6,300)
So far this year, Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has been....bad. However in Week 9, he gets a fantastic matchup against the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons are allowing the 8th most fantasy points to QBs this season, and Dak has thrown 8 TDs in his last 5 games. If there's a "get right" game for Prescott, this would be it.
Caleb Williams ($6,100)
Bears QB Caleb Williams has three 20+ fantasy point games, including a 4 TD game against the Jaguars back in Week 7. Additionally, he's contributed on the ground with 97 rushing yards over his past two games. His opponent in Week 9, the Cardinals, rank 29th in EPA/play, 32nd in success rate, 30th in EPA/drop back and 32nd in drop back success rate, giving Williams a great opportunity to succeed.
Other options: Drake Maye ($5,500): Maye has injected some life into a pathetic Patriots offense. He has 6 total TDs and 92 combined rushing yards through 9 quarters of football.
I also like Kirk Cousins ($6,400) in GPPs this week.
Running Back
Saquon Barkley ($8,200)
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts isn’t going to rush for 3 TDs every week, and Barkley’s Week 9 foe, the Jags, are allowing the 6th most fantasy points to RBs. Barkley already has four 100+ rushing yards performances and has found the end zone 6 times so far this season.
Tony Pollard ($6,800)
Pollard has burned me the past few weeks. However, I’m going back to him again this week because the matchup is too enticing. The Patriots are allowing the 4th most fantasy points to RBs, and rank 21st defensively in rushing success rate.
Other Options:
Kenneth Walker ($7,300): The Rams rank 28th in EPA/rush and 23rd in rushing success rate.
Brian Robinson Jr. ($6,300): Robinson has been a workhorse for the Commanders and faces a Giants defense in Week 9 that sits 22nd in EPA/rush and 20th in rushing success rate.
I also like my cash RBs for GPPs.
Wide Receivers
Drake London ($6,700)
Even after a dud last week, London still ranks 15th in WOPR in the NFL, and provides great leverage against a chalky Bijan Robinson in Week 9. The Cowboys rank 25th in EPA/drop back and 30th in EPA/play, which should bode well for London.
DJ Moore ($6,500)
The matchup is too good to pass up this week for Moore (see QB Caleb Williams section above).
Other options: Chris Olave ($6,100): between QB Derek Carr being back in Week 9 and going up against the Panthers, Olave should smash. The Panthers rank 31st in EPA/play, success rate, EPA/drop back and drop back success rate.
Tight Ends
TE Adam Trautman ($3,000)
Trautman has 7 targets over his last two games, and gets a great matchup in the Ravens in Week 9, as Baltimore is allowing the 8th most fantasy points to TEs on the year.
TE Noah Fant ($3,600)
Fant has 14 targets over his last three games, and should continue to expect an expanded workload with WR DK Metcalf injured. He should also capitalize on an advantageous matchup against the Rams in Week 9, who have allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to TEs.
D/ST
Los Angeles Rams ($2,800)
The Rams rank 2nd in defensive pressure rate (29.8%), and QB Geno Smith looked mortal last week against an average Bills defense.
Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points):
Browns WR Cedric Tillman crushed last week like a Freddie Freeman homerun.
WR Cedric Tillman ($4,300) and Elijah Moore ($4,200)
I’m buying the Browns offense now that they have a league-average QB running the offense. I expect the passing game to continue to thrive with the Browns ranking 3rd in pass rate at 64.71%.
Have a great Week 9 of NFL DFS! Make sure to go to advancedsportslogic.com and checkout The Machine – DFS Lineup Optimizer
By Clayton Jones aka @FF_Pulse_88 on Twitter.
