Week 6 is in the books, we still can’t figure out certain team’s backfields, and the injuries continue to pile up! Let’s review last week’s recommendations.
QB- Lamar Jackson- 22.9, Jayden Daniels- 20.9, Jordan Love- 26.6, Justin Fields- 23.7,
RB- Chuba Hubbard- 15.3, Bijan Robinson- 25.5, Tony Pollard- 17.8
WR- Drake London- 19.4, Chris Godwin- 38.5, Josh Downs- 19.5, Terry McLaurin- 23.3, Zay Flowers- 25.4, Jameson Williams- 17.7
TE- Kyle Pitts- 10, Cade Otton- 9.5
D/ST- Texans- 12, Lions- 18
Before we start on Week 7, I’ll share my best scoring GPP lineup.
QB- Jayden Daniels- 20.96
RB- Tony Pollard- 16.3
RB- James Conner- 4.6
WR- Terry McLaurin- 20.3
WR- Dyami Brown- 1.6
WR- AJ Brown- 23.6
TE- Trey McBride- 13
FLEX- Rashod Bateman- 9.1
D/ST- Titans- 3
Looking back on this FanDuel lineup, I stretched 2 positions too thin. I liked the Daniels double stack but should’ve gone with TE Zach Ertz over WR Dyami Brown. Bateman was also too thin a play. Pollard disappointed vs what I thought he would do against a bad Colts defense. I loved the AJ Brown pick. Another spot where I made a mistake was playing both James Conner and Trey McBride, this was bad because A) they are not correlated and B) if both these players scored high, then I should’ve brought back some players on the Green Bay side.
Let’s get back on track for Week 7!
Week 7 DraftKings slate
Games to target:
1. SEA @ ATL – 51 O/U
Implied totals: SEA 24; ATL 27
2. HOU @ GB – 47.5 O/U
Implied totals: HOU 22.25; GB 25.25
3. CAR @ WAS – 51.5 O/U
Implied totals: CAR 22; WAS 29.5
4. LV @ LAR – 43 O/U
Implied totals: LV- 18.25; LAR- 24.75
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterbacks
Jayden Daniels ($7,600)
Daniels has scored 20+ fantasy points in every game this season except for one. Daniels gets an exceptional matchup against the Panthers in Week 7. The Panthers rank 3rd worst in EPA per drop back and EPA/play.
Jordan Love ($6,900)
Love has tossed 10 TDs in his last 3 games and faces a Texans defense that just allowed rookie QB Drake Maye to throw for 243 yards and 3 TDs with below-average weapons. Furthermore, the Texans are allowing the 11th-most fantasy points to QBs this season.
Baker Mayfield ($6,600)
Mayfield has been on fire lately, with two 30-point games in his last three games. The Bucs rank 6th best in EPA/play, 7th in EPA/drop back, and 4th in success rate at 49.5%. In Week 7, they face a Ravens defense that ranks 10th-worst in EPA/play allowed, and 6th-worst in EPA/drop back.
Running Back
Alexander Mattison ($5,500)
Mattison is an excellent value at 5500, sporting 29 carries and 8 targets over his past two games. Now with WR Davante Adams gone to the Jets, there’s more room for pass work for everyone else, including Mattison. The Week 7 matchup for Mattison is a good one in the Rams, who rank 3rd-worst in rushing EPA allowed and 2nd-worst in rushing success rate.
Bijan Robinson ($7,100)
Robinson finally popped off last week with 25.5 fantasy points. Per Dwain McFarland of Fantasy Life, before last week’s game was a blowout, Robinson handled 59% of the rushing work for the Falcons. The Falcons should continue running the ball against the Seahawks, who sit at 10th-worst in rushing success rate allowed (42.5%).
Other options: Kenneth Walker ($7,300) the Falcons are allowing the 4th-highest rushing success rate on the season at (46.2%) and 10th-highest rushing EPA, Chuba Hubbard ($6,500), Brian Robinson Jr. ($6,400), Kyren Williams ($8,100).
Wide Receiver
Terry McLaurin ($6,800)
The Commanders offense ranks 1st in EPA/play and EPA/drop back and get the lowly Panthers defense in Week 7. The Panthers defense ranks 3rd-worst in EPA/play, 6th-worst in success rate, and 3rd-worst in EPA/drop back. McLaurin and his 6th ranked WOPR will pile up the points for your fantasy lineups in Week 7.
Cooper Kupp ($7,900)
The last full game Kupp played he earned 21 targets, and he should fit right back into that role in Week 7. Kupp still ranks 4th in WOPR and target share amongst all WRs. Your Kupp should runneth over with fantasy points in Week 7.
Diontae Johnson ($6,600)
Johnson ranks 12th in WOPR and 13th in target share among WRs. With the Panthers passing at the 7th highest rate combined with the Commanders allowing the 4th-highest EPA/play, and success rate and 5th highest EPA/drop back allowed.
Other options: DK Metcalf ($6,800), Drake London ($6,900).
Tight End
Brock Bowers ($5,800)
Bowers has 22 targets over his past two games and there’s no sign of it stopping. Now Bowers gets to face a Rams defense that is allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points to TEs. Bowers is also tied for 4th in target share and 3rd in WOPR.
D/ST
Kansas City Chiefs ($3,100)
The Chiefs are tied for 1st in pressure rate at 32.6% and face a 49ers offense that’s allowing pressure at the 5th highest rate.
Favorite stacks:
1. Jayden Daniels + Terry McLaurin and/or Zach Ertz with Chuba Hubbard and/or Diontae Johnson bring back.
2. Jordan Love + Jayden Reed and/or Romeo Doubs with Joe Mixon and/or Tank Dell/Stefon Diggs bring back.
3. Geno Smith + DK Metcalf + Kenneth Walker with Bijan Robinson and/or Drake London/Darnell Mooney.
GPP Plays:
Quarterbacks
I like my cash options for GPPs.
Running Back
Kyren Williams ($8,100)
Williams has 18+ rushing attempts in every game this season except one. In Week 7, Williams gets to face the Raiders who have allowed the 6th highest EPA/rush and 12th highest rushing success rate.
Other Options: De’Von Achane ($6,700)
I also like my cash RBs for GPPs.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson ($8,500)
With expensive RBs on the slate, Jefferson makes an interesting pivot. Jefferson accumulated 14 targets in his last game and gets a potential shootout spot against an Aidan Hutchinson-less Lions defense. The Lions are allowing the 4th-most fantasy points to WRs, so Jefferson should smash in Week 7.
Malik Nabers ($7,500)
Nabers has been exceptional when on the field. He has 52 targets over 4 games including two 100 yard games in that same timeframe. Nabers also leads all WRs in WOPR and target share which should pair well with the Eagles allowing the 8th-highest EPA/play and 7th-highest EPA/drop back.
Other options: Tyreek Hill ($7,300), Deebo Samuel ($7,000), Romeo Doubs ($5,500)
I also like my cash options for GPPs this week.
Tight Ends
TE David Njoku ($4,100)
Njoku had 7 targets in Week 6 and now WR Amari Cooper is off to Buffalo, taking with him his 7th ranked WOPR and tied for 12th ranked target share. Furthering Njoku’s case this week is his matchup against the Bengals, who rank 10th in fantasy points allowed to TEs.
TE Zach Ertz ($3,900)
Ertz has 13 targets over his las two games and gets a great matchup for Week 7. The Panther’s defense is allowing opposing offenses to do whatever they please including allowing the 7th-most fantasy points to TEs.
D/ST
Cincinnati Bengals ($3,300)
The Browns have been terrible. In fact, the Browns rank 31st in EPA/play, 32nd in success rate, and 31st in EPA/drop back. With no chance of QB Deshaun Watson being benched, you can start the Bengals defense with safety.
Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points):
WR Ladd McConkey had 8 targets last week and unfortunately only finished with 8 fantasy points. Time to try again for Week 7.
WR Juju Smith-Schuster ($4,000)
Smith-Schuster had 7 receptions for 130 yards and finished second on the team in targets in Week 5. With Smith-Schuster already having a previous connection with QB Patrick Mahomes, I think his success continues unless WR Xavier Worthy gets a post-BYE rookie bump.
Have a great Week 7 of NFL DFS! Make sure to go to advancedsportslogic.com and checkout The Machine – DFS Lineup Optimizer
By Clayton Jones aka @FF_Pulse_88 on Twitter.