Finally, the NFL has returned! Week 1 is here and it’s time to get back to business, the business of finding the best DFS plays! Let’s dive in!

 

Let’s see what Vegas thinks about the scoring for Week 1.

Week 1 DraftKings Slate

Games to target:
1. HOU @ IND - 49 O/U
Implied totals: HOU 26; IND 23
2. JAX @ MIA - 48.5 O/U
Implied totals: JAX 22.75; MIA 26.25
3. ARI @ BUF - 48 O/U
Implied totals: ARI 20.75; BUF 27.25
4. DEN @ SEA – 42 O/U
Implied totals: DEN- 18; SEA- 24
Top Cash Plays:

 

Quarterbacks

CJ Stroud ($7,500)
Stroud gets a nice matchup against the Colts Week 1. There’s two reasons I like Stroud in this matchup, a) the Colts ranked as the 8th best matchup for opposing QBs per Broto’s True Matchup Rank and b) the Colts love pushing the pace. The Colts have ranked 12th in plays per game the past two years. In his first season against the Colts, Stroud has passed for 648 yards and 4 TD in two meetings. Expect a strong outing for Stroud in Week 1.  

Tua Tagovailoa ($7,000)
It’s a warm, home game for the Dolphins against a terrible defense, that means it’s all systems go for Tua. The Jaguars defense ranks as the 3rd best matchup for QBs, allowing 24.3 PPG. The Jaguars also allowed the 7th most passing yards last season as well as tied for 7th most passing TDs allowed last season. Start Tua with confidence in Week 1.

Kyler Murray ($6,400)
Murray makes for nice, cheaper option in Week 1. He faces a Bills defense that ranked as the 6th best matchup for rushing QBs. In 7 games last season with 5 or more rushing attempts, Murray averaged 34 yards per game and accumulated 3 rushing TDs as well.

Other options: Baker Mayfield ($5,600)- faces the #1 defense for QB points over average and is dirt cheap. Advanced Sports Logic’s the Machine DFS Optimizer has Mayfield projected for 18.42 fantasy points.

 

Running Back

Joe Mixon ($6,600) 
Per Aaron Wilson of KPRC, Mixon is fully healthy, which makes him an easy plug-n-play for Week 1. The Colts rank as the #1 matchup for RBs overall, allowing over 28 FPPG. Additionally, the Colts allowed the 9th most rushing yards and 4th most rushing TDs last season. Mixon makes for a great mid-range play in Week 1.

Kenneth Walker ($6,100)
Walker is gifted the 2nd best matchup for RBs in the Broncos. The Broncos allowed the 3rd most rushing yards (2331) as well as the highest yards per carry last season (5). Enter Walker, who tied for 9th when it came to 10+ yard rushes and tied for 6th most rushes of 20+ yards. Among RBs with 200 carries, Walker ranked 14th in opportunity share at 26.8%. Trust Walker to hit big in Week 1.  

Other options: James Conner ($6,200), Rachaad White ($6,300)

 

Wide Receiver

Mike Evans ($7,300) 
Even though Evans is another year older he continues to crank out fantasy production. Evans gets the #1 matchup for WRs in the Commanders Week 1. Evans sported a healthy 65% WOPR (weighted opportunity rating) as well as a 40% air yards share last season. The Commanders allowed the most receiving yards (4,627) and most receiving TDs last season (39). Evans is a great play at a reasonable price.

Tyreek Hill ($7,500)
Of the three 8k options, Hill is the one I trust the most. He’s healthy, his starting QB is healthy, and he has a phenomenal matchup against the Jaguars. Hill had a 78% WOPR, 32% target share and 43% air yards share last season. I like Hill in GPP’s as well.

Stefon Diggs ($6,700)
Everyone has been quick to bury Diggs. Give me a 6k volume hog every day of the week and twice on Sundays. Diggs sported a 68% WOPR and 29% target share last season. His Week 1 foe, the Colts, were the 9th best matchup for WRs last season. Another reason I like Diggs this week is he is back to playing in a dome. Some of Diggs career-best stats are correlated with dome games, including 12.91 yards/reception, 9.68 yards/target and 74.3 yards/game. Don’t sleep on Diggs Week 1. 

Other options: DJ Moore ($6,500), Malik Nabers ($5,900)

 

Tight End

Trey McBride ($6,100)
McBride sported a 43% WOPR and a 20% target share last year. McBride draws the 9th best matchup for TEs in the Bills. McBride is the most expensive TE on the Week 1 slate, but he is well worth it in a game that has the 3rd highest O/U.

David Njoku ($5,600)
Njoku had a 43% WOPR to go along with a 21% target share last season. Should last year’s numbers carry over it will serve him well against the Cowboys in Week 1. The Cowboys rank as the 11 best matchup for TEs and lost well-respected DC Dan Quinn to the Washington Commanders in the offseason. Expect some defensive regression for the Cowboys and for Njoku to exploit them.

 

D/ST 

Houston Texans ($2,700) 
The Texans seem like a smash pick this week. They face QB Anthony Richardson, who although is dangerous on the ground, leaves much to be desired through the air. The Texans inked 4-time Pro Bowler Danielle Hunter to pair with Defensive Rookie of the Year winner Will Anderson Jr. In 4 games last season, Richardson was sacked 7 times, fumbled 3 times and threw one interception. The pressure could be too much for Richardson to handle in Week 1.

 

Favorite stacks:
1. Tua Tagovailoa + Tyreek Hill with a Travis Etienne or Brian Thomas Jr bring back. 
2. CJ Stroud + Stefon Diggs + Joe Mixon with Michael Pittman Jr or AD Mitchell bring back. 
3. Baker Mayfield + Mike Evans + Rachaad White with a Terry McLauren bring back. 
4. Kyler Murray + Trey McBride with James Cook/Khalil Shakir bring back. You could also substitute Dalton Kincaid for McBride and stack Murray with Marvin Harrison Jr.

 

 

GPP Plays:

 

Quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence ($6,200), Jayden Daniels ($5,700)
When healthy Lawrence can throw the rock. With offseason additions Gabe Davis via free agency and rookie Brian Thomas Jr via the draft, Lawrence has a full set of weapons to use to keep pace with Miami.

Daniels is a mystery box, which makes him intriguing. With the Commanders defense expected to be poor, Daniels will have to make up the difference offensively. Although Daniels has electric upside via rushing, he is regarded as a well-established passing QB by most scouts. If you really want to gamble and save some extra salary, Daniels is your guy.

I also like my cash QB recommendations for GPPs.

 

Running Back

De’Von Achane ($6,800)
Achane is a game-changer. He ranked #1 in 30+ and 40+ yard rushing plays last season and tied for 1st in 50+ yard rushing plays. Achane also makes for a huge leverage play on the Miami passing game.

James Cook ($6,900)
Continuing with the explosion theme, James Cook makes for an interesting GPP play this week. The Cardinals rank as the 4th best matchup for RBs and Cook’s heavy usage in OC Joe Brady’s scheme seem like a perfect fit. 

I like my cash options at RB as well for GPPs this week.

 

Wide Receivers

Davante Adams ($7,600)

Adams led all WRs in WOPR (79%) and target share (32%) last season. Even though he is another year older Adams should continue to dominate targets on this Raiders team. Adams has all the numbers of an alpha WR and I expect his rostership to be low this week. In two games against the Chargers last season, Adams turned 25 targets into 16 receptions for 176 yards and 1 TD. If anyone can hold off father time, it’s Davante Adams.

Tee Higgins ($6,100) Andrei Iosivas ($3,000)
These plays depend on WR Ja’Mar Chase’s availability. Should Chase miss, Higgins is an easy jam and Iosivas makes for a nice 3k play as the next man up after Higgins. 

I like my cash options for GPPs this week.

 

Tight Ends

TE Dalton Kincaid ($5,800)
I don’t trust Kincaid in cash yet in GPPs I’m willing to use him. The Bills do not have an established #1 WR and more than likely will spread the ball around. With target hog WR Stefon Diggs out of the picture, Kincaid will have an opportunity to ascend. 

Other options: Jake Ferguson ($5,200), more of a play on the Cowboys passing game as the Browns have guarded the TE very well. Zach Ertz ($3,600) should be the #2 or #3 target in this offense of which he is familiar with. Ertz thrived with OC Kliff Kingsbury back in Arizona and is a great way to save salary without completely punting the position.

 

D/ST 

Carolina Panthers ($2,400)
The panthers make for a great play since they are dirt cheap and have a great matchup against the Saints. The Saints still have offensive line woes and QB Derek Carr is still there.

I also like my cash pick, the Houston Texans defense in GPP’s.

 

Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)
I have 3 guys I like this week. 

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($4,900), Curtis Samuel ($4,800), Brian Thomas Jr. ($4,700).  
Jaxon Smith-Njigba should get a chance to shine in new OC Ben Grubbs offense. With fellow WR Tyler Lockett banged up much of the off-season, I could see JSN starting strong is his sophomore season.

Curtis Samuel is the most established WR on the Bills and has the most familiarity with OC Joe Brady’s offense. The Bills have one of the highest implied team totals in Week 1 and Samuel should contribute to that number. 

Brian Thomas Jr. has been the buzz of Jaguars camp. His only competition is a primary slot guy in WR Christian Kirk and WR Gabe Davis, who doesn’t earn targets. There is a hole in the Jaguars offense and Thomas Jr could put defenses on notice starting in Week 1.

 

Have a GREAT Week 1 DFS!