Elijah Moore F4790ac9ad

Wow - what an exciting week Week 12 was! My dynasty team had Jalen Hurts and my opponent had D'Andre Swift and DaVonte Smith. The scores from our other players were all in, and my team was winning by 0.90 fantasy points on Sunday night with seconds left on the clock and Philly needing to hit a 59-yard field goal to tie it up and go into over time. I was hoping for a miss, but Jake Elliot nailed it, and it went into overtime. Buffalo won the toss, and scored a field goal, and my team was still up by 0.90 fantasy points. Then it was Philly's turn. I needed Swift not to run the ball and for Hurts not to pass it to Smith and Swift, but Swift and Smith make some plays and by the time Hurts was down to the other end of the field, my team was losing by about 2 fantasy points. There was only one way for my team to win - a Hurts TD throw to other than Smith or Swift, or run the ball in himself. And there it was. Hurts runs it in, game, set, match - on the last play on Sunday night football. And my team won 160.3 to 156.9, and moves to 3rd place in the league. It doesn't get any more exciting than that!

Before I dive into my actual streamer recommendations, I am going to show a chart from one of my keeper leagues. This keeper league has 18-player rosters. I believe this chart illustrates the importance of utilizing the waiver wire:

Bench Points 744955d05b

The teams are sorted by bench points. My team is Triple Trouble, and has the most bench points in the league. In red, I show the number of waiver acquisitions each team manager has performed this season. What does this tell us? The four teams with the most bench points average 21.8 waiver acquisitions this season, while the four teams with the least bench points only averaged 8.5 waiver acquisitions.

Bench points are a sign of the depth of a team. The more depth a team has, the more resilient it will be through bye weeks and when a starter goes down.

Dissecting this just a little more, let's look at Allen Wrench. His team is 11-1 and he has the 2nd most total fantasy points in the league, but he has had a low volume of waiver moves and as we would expect, very weak bench points. Notice also that his starting lineup efficiency (potential fantasy points / actual fantasy points) is the 2nd highest in the league, at 90.2%. This isn't because he is more skilled at picking his lineups than everyone else in the league, but because his team doesn't have very good depth. He has easy starter decisions each week because, while he has great starters, he doesn't have much else to pick from when setting his lineup. Typically the teams with the higher bench points will have lower starting efficiencies because they have more options to pick from each week, and so have tougher start/sit decisions. What does this mean for Allen Wrench? It means he is more likely to be one injury away from being eliminated early from the playoffs. His team might not have the resilience to get to the championship game if anything goes wrong.

So this is why utilizing the waiver wire is important even when you have a solid starting cast.

I did the same analysis with my 24-player roster dynasty league. In that league, which has 6 more players per roster, plus 3 IR slots, it is much more difficult to find meaningful players from the waiver wire. My team has the 2nd most bench points in that league and the 2nd most transactions, but there is no correlation between the number of transactions of the top and and the number of transactions of the bottom teams to bench points. The top 6 teams averaged 16.5 transactions and the bottom 6 teams averaged 17.2 transactions.

So what does this mean? It means that in a 24-player roster league, studying the players and making good picks is more valuable than the value of just being active on the waiver wire compared with an 18-player roster league, where waiver choices are more obvious.

If you are new to this article, here are some things you should know: This article is for deeper roster leagues (18 to 24 players). These are the players that are available in my three leagues. The players with the asterisks in front of them are available in my 24-player roster league - a dynasty league. I always try to have at least two players from that league here to accommodate those of you in similar leagues. The first number in parenthesis is the ranking of the defensive team versus the fantasy position of the offensive player, where 1st is the strongest defense (allowing the least fantasy points) and 32nd is the weakest defense (allowing the most fantasy points). The second number in parenthesis is the current PPR fantasy point projection from our special blend. However, don't put too much into these projections as not all projection providers are fully up-to-date yet. Rather read the info that goes with them to make more informed decisions that might suit your circumstances better. 

QB

  • Baker Mayfield, TB v Car (3rd, 18.3) - Mayfield sprained his ankle last week but still played most of the game. His MRI showed no ligament damage, but he remains questionable for Week 13.
  • Derek Carr, NO v Det (27th, 15.5) - Carr performed admirably in Week 12, throwing for over 300 yard, considering he was without Michael Thomas and both Chris Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (thigh) for had to leave the game.
  • Jake Browning, Cin @ Jax (28th, 14.5) - Browning took his first career start in Week 12, and did okay. He kept the Bengals in the game and looks to have the skills to keep the Bengals competitive for the remainder of the season.
  • Desmond Ridder, Atl @ NYJ (6th, 14.2) - Taylor Heinicke's stint as starter didn't last very long. Ridder got the starting job back, and though his Week 12 performance was mistake riddled, it was enough to sneak past the Saints for a W.
  • Will Levis, Ten v Ind (13th, 13.9) - In his 5th career start, the rookie QB executed the Titans conservative game script admirably and resulted in a win. Expect the same going forward while Levis continues to develop.
  • Kenny Picket, Pit v Ari (26th, 13.8) - Pickett appeared to improve with QB Coach Mike Sullivan calling the plays after OC Matt Canada was dismissed.
  • *Tim Boyle, NYJ v Atl (24th, 10.6) - Tim Boyle, a six year veteran, will be making only his 5th career start in Week 13. His Week 12 performance was uninspiring, throwing for under 200 yards with 1 TD and 2 interceptions in the Jets loss to the Dolphins.

RB

  • Samaje Perine, Den @ Hou (17th, 5.6) - Perine's volume has remained the same, 8 touches per game, the last 2 weeks, as he has reclaimed his number 2 RB spot from rookie Jaleel McLaughlin.
  • Jeffrey Wilson, Mia @ Wsh (20th, 5.2) - Wilson was the number 2 back last week with 14 touches. However, if De'von Achane returns, his touch volume could plunge back down.
  • Royce Freeman, LAR v Cle (12th, 4.8) - Freeman started getting volume Week 7, and has scored 2 TDs since. He has also averaged 12.6 touches a game in that time, including 13 touches last week even with Kyren Williams's return.
  • *D'Ernest Johnson, Jax v Cin (19th, 3.0) - Johnson has established himself as the Bengal's 2nd back behind Travis Etienne and ahead of rookie Tank Bigsby, and has had 5 to 8 touches his last three games. Some of his increased volume in Week 12 came when Etienne exited the game with a chest injury, but was able to return to the game later.
  • *Cordarelle Patterson, Atl @ NYJ (28th, 2.9) - This seasoned 32-year old veteran gets light volume behind Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allegeier.

WR

  • Elijah Moore, Cle @ LAR (12th, 9.3) - Caught 3 of 9 targets in Week 12 with Jake Browning behind center. Moore has averaged 6.6 targets per game and has only 1 TD. If Amari Cooper is out this week, Moore could see a slight uptick in volume.
  • Justin Watson, KC @ GB (10th, 6.8) - Watson has anywhere from 0 to 11 targets each game this season, averaging only 1.8 catches per game, so his performance is inconsistent. However, he has totaled 6 catches on 11 targets and 2 TDs in his last two games.
  • *Greg Dortch, Ari @ Pit (21st, 6.7) - Dortch was quiet all season, but became fantasy relevant in Week 11 when rookie Michael Wilson was hurt. If Wilson is out Week 13, Dortch might be able to help your team.
  • Michael Gallup, Dal v Sea (20th, 6.3) - 6-year veteran Gallup only had one target in the Cowboys 45 to 10 Thanksgiving route of the Commanders. Dak Prescott was spreading the ball around and having no trouble finding targets against a soft Commanders passing D, so his low volume last week could have just been the result of game script, and to give younger Jalen Tolbert and Jalen Brooks some opportunity.
  • *DeVante Parker, NE v LAC (30th, 5.5) - Parker returned in Week 12, catching 3 of his 5 targets for 42 yards.
  • Dontayvion Wicks, GB v KC (26th, 5.2) - This rookie is now past the concussion protocol and is expected to return Week 13. He has averaged 3.2 targets per game.
  • Kalif Raymond, Det (5th, 4.8) - In Week 12, Raymond had three catches of 20 yards or more and caught all five of his targets. He is averaging 16.2 yards per catch on the season. His performance for fantasy isn't consistent, but he can put up some decent streamer numbers on a good week.
  • *KaVontae Turpin, Dal v Sea (20th, 2.8) - Turpin has been targeted just 13 times all season, but three of those targets resulted in TDs. He also rushed 8 times for 79 yards. With is low volume, he can't be counted on, but he can give your team a TD upside bonus on any week.

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TE

  • *Hunter Henry, NE v LAC (27th, 8.2) - Henry had consistent volume almost every week except last week, where he was not targeted against a stout Giants D against TEs. Expect Henry to bounce back in Week 13 against a soft Chargers D against TEs.
  • Tyler Higbee, LAR v Cle (1st, 6.9) - Higbee has averaged 2.9 receptions per game, but has been inconsistent and had no TDs until last week when, when he scored two. This has put him back into the discussion of fantasy relevance.
  • Juwan Johnson, NO v Det (20th, 6.3) - With Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Michael Thomas either leaving the game or being out, Johnson saw an increased share of targets. This could continue into Week 13 if either Olave, Shaheed or both don't return.
  • Tanner Hudson, Cin @ Jax (21st, 5.4) - Hudson has averaged 4.5 receptions the last four games.
  • *Tommy Tremble, Car @ TB (25th, 3.8) - Tremble started Week 12, but was injured and left early. He was also up against a stout Titans D against TDs. If he his healthy and starts in Week 13, he could provide one of his better performances against a softer Buccaneers D.
  • *Drew Sample, Cin @ Jax (21st, 2.2) - Sample has averaged two receptions per week and caught 2 TDs over the last four weeks as Jake Browning continues under center for Joe Burrow.

K

  • Matt Gay, Ind @ Ten (28th, 9.5)
  • Jason Myers, Sea @ Dal (2nd, 8.8)
  • Will Lutz, Den @ Hou (24th, 8.6)
  • Chris Boswell, Pit v Ari (14th, 8.4)
  • Chase McLaughlin, TB v Car (13th, 8.4)

D

  • Indianapolis Colts @ Ten (22nd, 7.2)
  • Atlanta Falcons @ NYJ (31st, 7.2)
  • Los Angeles Rams v Cle (26th, 6.9)
  • Tennessee Titans v Ind (7th, 6.5)
  • Carolina Panthers @ TB (15th, 6.0)