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Like every other position, I rank running backs in tiers rather than a strict list. It’s easily the best draft-day tool, in my opinion. Especially as you move down the board, I can understand someone preferring one player over another within the same tier, even if I wouldn’t make that swap myself.
For 2025, running back feels deep through the first four tiers. I genuinely like most players in those groups, so I don’t feel pressured to grab an RB from Tier 1 or 2 to feel secure. There’s plenty of talent and value in Tiers 3 and 4 to build a strong RB room without forcing an early pick. The key is recognizing where the drop-offs are. Once you reach Tier 5, the ground becomes shakier, and the risk increases rapidly.
That said, there’s opportunity in the chaos. Uncertainty has pushed plenty of capable backs into the middle rounds, where market hesitation can become your edge. Across the league, even “lead” backs aren’t locked into bell-cow workloads anymore, but if you can spot the ones with secure roles or high-end contingency value, you can still win the position.
It’s also a strong year for handcuffs. Between fragile starters and committees that could flip with one injury or a cold stretch, there’s a real case for stashing multiple high-upside backups, even ones you don’t pair with their starter. I’ve been more open to drafting them this year than in the past.
If you’re waiting on RBs, this is a season where you genuinely have to read the board. A Hero RB approach (one strong early back, then waiting) can work, but only if you’re sharp about targeting players who could gain roles midseason. And if you’re loading up early, it’s less about locking in two “safe” backs and more about securing one of the rare workhorses before the cliff.
Bottom line: running back is a position you’ll likely need to manage in-season more than ever in 2025. Depth, adaptability, and waiver-wire aggression will matter more than having a “set it and forget it” lineup.
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Tier 1 – The True League Winners
This is the elite group, the only four backs in fantasy with not just the ability to finish as RB1 overall, but to separate from the field entirely. They combine massive workloads with explosive, game-breaking ability, giving them the rare upside to blow you away week after week. These players can carry a roster on their own and tilt entire leagues, the definition of true league winners.
RB1: Bijan Robinson (Atl)
Reasons for Optimism:
Bijan scored the third-most fantasy points among running backs last year and was RB1 over the final two-thirds of the season. He’s a young playmaker with no injury history and looks like the clear focal point of Atlanta’s offense. There’s no real threat to his workload, and he contributes on the ground and through the air with strong efficiency and consistent reception totals.
Reasons for Pessimism:
There’s not much downside, but the uncertainty around the Falcons' offense is worth noting. Michael Penix Jr. has only three career starts, and a struggling offense could limit Bijan’s touchdown opportunities. That said, Bijan had some of his best performances when Kirk Cousins struggled, so volume may bail him out even in suboptimal game scripts.
Final Verdict:
I love Bijan and often go back and forth on whether I have him as my top overall pick regardless of position. He checks every box: age, role, talent, receiving work, and while there’s some volatility in the Falcons' passing game, he’s as close to a sure thing as you’ll find at RB.
RB2: Saquon Barkley (Phi)
Reasons for Optimism:
Barkley had one of the best seasons in NFL history last year, having the most rushing yards in league history when including the playoffs, and capping off the year by winning the Super Bowl. He’s an electric, fun player to root for and have on your fantasy team. The fit in Philadelphia is ideal, high-scoring, efficient, and he may even see more touchdown opportunities if game scripts fall his way. Despite the presence of the Tush Push keeping Jalen Hurts involved at the goal line, Barkley’s explosiveness and every-down role offer top-tier upside.
Reasons for Pessimism:
The concerns here are mostly anecdotal, but still worth noting. Players who’ve had over 500 touches in a season often break down; about half of them have missed more than half of their games the following season. Additionally, every 2,000-yard rusher in NFL history has seen their yardage total drop by at least 500 yards the following season. It’s tough to sustain such historic production.
Final Verdict:
Honestly, writing about the risks is annoying because everything you want is here. Barkley is healthy right now, the focal point of a great offense, and can take any carry to the house. Even with natural regression, he’s firmly in the top tier of fantasy RBs and could easily be justified as the RB1.
RB3: Christian McCaffrey (SF)
Reasons for Optimism:
You know the saying: “If you’re not first, you’re last.” That’s the mindset you need when drafting McCaffrey. If you could somehow guarantee a full season of health, he’d be the top overall pick in fantasy. Just two years ago, he was on over half of ESPN championship rosters, absolutely dominating the position. When he played last season, it was vintage CMC, 90%+ snap share and the clear focal point of the offense. With Jordan Mason gone and injuries to the 49ers' WR group, the workload should remain heavy.
Reasons for Pessimism:
The pain from last season is real. San Francisco strung fantasy managers along until game time. In Week 1, CMC missed half the year. The 49ers' opaque injury reporting makes it hard to know what’s real, and at age 29, with a history of serious injuries, it’s fair to wonder if the explosiveness is still fully intact.
Final Verdict:
If he’s healthy, he’s going to play and likely dominate. McCaffrey has league-winning upside, and while there’s obvious risk tied to age and durability, his ceiling is still unmatched. I’m inclined to roll the dice.
RB4: Jahmyr Gibbs (Det)
Reasons for Optimism:
Gibbs finished with the most fantasy points of any RB last year, thanks to a 46-point Week 18 performance while Saquon sat out. He’s an electric playmaker, averaging 5.5 yards per carry for his career and scoring 20 total touchdowns last season. On top of that, he’s a proven receiver, giving him a high floor regardless of game script. He’s dynamic enough to break off chunk plays at any time, and he's the last RB you can realistically consider in the first half of Round 1.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Some concerns make you pause when comparing Gibbs to elite RBs around the same draft price. Most notably, he’s still in a timeshare with David Montgomery, who will play when healthy. That limits Gibbs’ actual workhorse upside. Additionally, OC Ben Johnson’s departure could lead to a step back for Detroit’s offense. If scoring chances decrease and Montgomery remains involved, Gibbs could be frustrating to roster despite his evident talent.
Final Verdict:
Gibbs has #1 overall RB upside, and if anything were to happen to Montgomery, he could become the most valuable player in fantasy football. While there’s some risk tied to workload and team regression, the ceiling is so massive that he’s a worthy pick near the top of the draft.
Tier 2 – Proven Stars & Ascending Talents
This tier is a blend of two types of backs: those who have already proven they can be the overall RB1 in a season, and those who haven’t done it yet but have all the ingredients to make it happen. Some of these players have shown us peak fantasy dominance before, but the question is whether they can capture that magic again. Others are younger, still putting all the pieces together, but the setup for their 2025 season could easily be the perfect script for a breakout. These guys can tilt a league; they might not be as bankable as Tier 1, but their ceiling sits right next to it.
RB5: De’Von Achane (Mia)
Reasons for Optimism:
Achane might be the best receiving back in football, which makes him PPR gold. He’s extremely explosive and plays in a system that consistently schemes him into space. When Tua Tagovailoa was healthy, Achane averaged over 20 fantasy points per game; that’s elite. Tua doesn’t run, which funnels dump-offs to Achane, and Achane even handles goal-line work, rare for a smaller back.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Achane’s production fell dramatically when Tua was hurt, averaging under 8 PPG without his quarterback. While he stayed healthy last year, his size and rookie-year injuries will always make managers nervous.
Final Verdict:
Achane is one of my favorite targets this year. He has a massive opportunity and is the safest bet to lead all RBs in receiving work. Just cross your fingers that Tua stays upright, and if he does, Achane could be a top-tier RB.
RB6: Derrick Henry (Bal)
Reasons for Optimism:
Derrick Henry is an outlier in every sense, a physical monster who still runs with dominance. He nearly ran for 2,000 yards last season, and his pairing with Lamar Jackson creates one of the most dominant backfields in NFL history. The added attention Jackson demands from defenses has made Henry’s life easier and opened up even more touchdown chances. The Ravens are still one of the league’s premier offenses, and Henry should feast near the goal line.
Reasons for Pessimism:
The concern is obvious: age and wear-and-tear. While Henry has defied expectations so far, running backs historically fall off quickly, especially after the mileage he’s logged. And in PPR formats, his lack of involvement in the passing game allows for a steep drop-off to potentially occur if he becomes less efficient as a runner. He’s averaged fewer than 20 receptions per year, so any dip in rushing efficiency or touchdown volume could make him bust.
Final Verdict:
I don’t expect the cliff to hit this year, and Henry should still be elite on the ground. However, he doesn’t have much room for error without pass-catching involvement. In standard leagues, he’s a monster. He’s still very strong in PPR; just be aware that the floor is lower than others in his tier.
RB7: Ashton Jeanty (LV)
Reasons for Optimism:
Ashton Jeanty comes off one of the most prolific college seasons ever for a running back and enters the NFL with immense hype, maybe the most at his position since Saquon Barkley. He was a top draft priority for the Raiders, now under Pete Carroll, who has a long track record of emphasizing the run. The offense lacks elite pass-catchers beyond Brock Bowers, so Jeanty should be the focal point. He's explosive, versatile, and expected to immediately step into a massive workload.
Reasons for Pessimism:
As much as I love Jeanty’s talent, I only want him at the right price. Drafting him as your RB1, especially near the top of the draft, is a massive leap of faith. We haven’t seen him play an NFL snap, and the Raiders offense isn’t exactly high-powered, which could limit touchdown opportunities. There’s a new coach, a new quarterback, and overall uncertainty about how effective this team will be. You’re drafting him close to his ceiling as even a good/solid rookie year would be a disappointment at his draft price.
Final Verdict:
Jeanty is too talented to flop, but there’s a gap between being “really good” and being a top 5 fantasy back, which is what his current draft stock requires. I think he’ll be a reliable RB1, but expecting him to dominate from Week 1 might be a stretch. Temper expectations just slightly and ensure you’re not drafting him at his absolute ceiling.
RB8: Kyren Williams (LAR)
Reasons for Optimism:
Kyren Williams has been a fantasy stud two years running, finishing as RB6 last year and RB4 the year prior. He plays in a Sean McVay-led offense, which historically has been both productive and RB-centric. McVay is notorious for riding one trusted back, and Williams has been that guy, ranking second only to Saquon Barkley in touches per game over the last two seasons. He dominates the workload, gets red zone opportunities, and is the clear engine of the Rams’ backfield.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Williams' efficiency dipped last season, especially in yards after contact, and he had fumbling issues, including one that was spotlighted in the postseason. These issues may have spooked the Rams, who drafted Blake Corum last year (even though he barely played) and Jarquez Hunter this year. There are rumblings that McVay wants more of a committee, which has some fantasy managers backing off. And yes, Williams is a former 5th-round pick, which often gets held against players, no matter how much they produce.
Final Verdict:
I’m still very much in on Kyren. People are discounting him based on what might happen instead of what has happened, and what’s happened is two straight years of elite production in a strong offense that feeds him touchdowns. McVay has shown us time and time again (see: Todd Gurley) that when he trusts a guy, he sticks with him. I’m ignoring the committee noise until it shows up on the field. There’s top-5 RB potential here, and I’ll happily take the discount while others get spooked.
RB9: Chase Brown (Cin)
Reasons for Optimism:
I’m all in on Chase Brown. After Zach Moss went down in Week 8, Brown took over, and from Week 9 on, he was RB5 in fantasy. The only concern entering camp was whether Moss would return to split time, but the Bengals silenced that doubt by cutting him outright. Brown now sits atop the depth chart, with only Samaje Perine and rookie Tahj Brooks behind him, making it likely he maintains the massive snap share he had late last year. He plays in arguably the best offense in football, with a bad defense (hello shootouts), a stationary QB who doesn’t vulture rushing TDs, and Brown is a strong pass catcher, meaning he’ll be in high-leverage situations like two-minute drills. This is a perfect setup.
Reasons for Pessimism:
The main hesitation is pedigree and track record. Brown was only a 5th-round pick, and he doesn’t have a 1,000-yard season on his résumé. It’s fair to wonder if the Bengals might bring in competition at some point or if he’s a one-hit wonder from a hot stretch in 2024. The upside is massive but not without some leap of faith.
Final Verdict:
I’m pressing the draft button every time. The workload, the offense, the role in the passing game, it’s all there. If he stays healthy and holds this job, he could be a first-round pick in 2026 fantasy drafts. Don’t let his draft pedigree scare you. He passed every test once given the opportunity, and I want to be ahead of the curve.
RB10: Jonathan Taylor (Ind)
Reasons for Optimism:
People seem to be sleeping on Jonathan Taylor, and I’m not sure why. He was RB4 as a rookie in just 13 starts, followed that up by being the RB1 overall, then dealt with two interrupted seasons due to injuries and contract disputes. Last year, in only 13 games started, he still finished as RB8, capped off by a monster fantasy playoff stretch. He’s only 26 and has true elite upside, one of the few backs in the league with an actual path to being the overall RB1 again, even if it’s unlikely.
Reasons for Pessimism:
The issue with Taylor isn’t talent, it’s his situation. The Colts' offense is extremely volatile, and if Anthony Richardson starts, he’ll likely vulture red zone scores with his rushing ability. Even worse, Taylor has become nearly non-existent in the passing game, posting under 20 receptions in each of the last two years. That hurts his PPR floor, and combining that with a murky touchdown outlook creates some week-to-week volatility.
Final Verdict:
Taylor might not be the safest option in this tier, but the upside is undeniable. He’s done it before. While there are concerns about the Colts' offense and his pass-catching role, I think the fantasy community is overlooking how dominant Taylor can be. At his ADP, he’s a great bet to outperform expectations.
Tier 3 — Solid RB2s With Clear Separation From the Pack
This is a short but distinct tier made up of Bucky Irving, Josh Jacobs, and Alvin Kamara. While none of them have overall RB1 upside in my view, they sit a clear step above the next group, where the questions start piling up. Jacobs and Kamara have the proven track records and locked-in workloads to provide weekly stability, while Irving is the young wild card whose workload is not yet proven to me. I’m not aggressively targeting anyone in this tier, but they’re all safe enough to hold down a starting spot while you build the rest of your roster.
RB11: Josh Jacobs (GB)
Reasons for Optimism:
Josh Jacobs was a true workhorse for the Packers last year, scoring 15 touchdowns and tying for the most rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line in the NFL. Green Bay leaned on him heavily, and with no dual-threat QB to vulture red-zone carries and a thin backfield behind him, Jacobs looks set for another season of high-volume work. He has a history of carrying heavy workloads and producing with them, and there’s precedent for top-5 fantasy upside, especially in the productive Packers offense.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Jacobs had 337 touches last year, which is a massive workload, and there's always a question of whether the wear and tear will catch up to him. Despite being capable in the passing game, his reception total dropped significantly after moving to Green Bay. It appears the offense, flush with wide receiver talent, doesn't prioritize him as a receiving option. While he's still a strong fantasy asset, his value may be too touchdown-dependent, which makes him slightly more volatile week-to-week.
Final Verdict:
Jacobs is a solid, stable RB1/2 with a secure role and proven scoring ability. While I have minor concerns about his long-term durability and passing-game usage, he’s not being drafted too high, so you’re not overpaying for the upside. Just understand that his path to elite value probably requires double-digit touchdowns again, which makes him slightly more boom-or-bust than some of the backs ahead of him. Still, he’s a very safe pick if you're looking to lock in volume and red zone chances.
RB12: Alvin Kamara (NO)
Reasons for Optimism:
Yes, Kamara is now 30, which is ancient in running back years, but I’m still very much in on him. He remains the centerpiece of the Saints' offense, especially around the goal line, and with Taysom Hill no longer a red-zone vulture, Kamara could see an even larger share of scoring opportunities. While the Saints' offense may be one of the worst in football, whatever limited chances they get will mostly flow through Kamara. He’s also still an excellent pass-catcher, and the team’s new QB, Tyler Shough, showed a tendency to check down frequently in college, which could sustain Kamara’s PPR value.
Reasons for Pessimism:
The Saints' offense is, frankly, a mess. If they can’t move the ball or sustain drives, touchdown chances will be scarce. Kamara could rack up empty-volume stat lines with lots of short catches but few yards or scores, especially with a rookie quarterback and poor supporting cast. And of course, there’s no denying the age factor: 30-year-old RBs are almost always on the decline, and Kamara has a lot of tread on his tires from years of heavy usage.
Final Verdict:
This ranking would look very different in non-PPR formats, but in full PPR, Kamara has a clear role, high-volume receiving upside, and the chance to dominate touches. I’m betting he has one more good fantasy year in him, and if the Saints' general stink causes him to drop in your draft, I’m more than happy to pounce.
RB13: Bucky Irving (TB)
Reasons for Optimism:
There’s simply no denying the talent. I rostered Irving in multiple leagues last year and benefited greatly once he broke out in the second half of the season. He earned that breakout, too, with elusiveness metrics, like a high missed tackle rate, backing up the eye test. He eventually became the clear primary back in Tampa, and he enters 2025 as the presumed lead dog on an offense that should once again score plenty of points. If he holds onto the top job, there’s a real shot at RB1-level production.
Reasons for Pessimism:
While I like the player, I can’t justify a mid-second round pick on him. The biggest obstacle is Rachaad White, who finished as RB24 last year and still logged over 50 receptions. Even when Irving took over the ground game, White’s pass-catching role didn’t vanish. If White continues to command that passing-down work, Irving’s ceiling will be severely capped, especially in full PPR formats. Add in the departure of OC Liam Coen and the possibility of Tampa Bay's offense regressing after last year’s fireworks, and it’s enough to make me a bit hesitant at his current ADP.
Final Verdict:
I love the player’s talent, but I fear I’m going to have zero shares of Irving this year because he simply won’t fall far enough in drafts. There's just too much risk baked into his current cost. That said, if the Bucs faze White out more or White gets hurt, Irving could become a league-winner. As it stands, though, I’m tapping the brakes.
Tier 4 — Reliable Weekly Starters With Upside Paths
You should still be able to count on these players as every-week starters, even if they don’t carry the same floor or ceiling as the tiers above. This group is a mix of promising rookies who could pop and seem likely to have a steady workload early in the season, and veteran backs who are still set for large workloads. The veterans in this tier have the profile where, if their offense clicks and they stay healthy, they could climb into high-end RB2 or even low-end RB1 territory. You’re not betting on them to carry your team outright, but they provide stability while keeping a legitimate path to outproducing expectations.
RB14: Omarion Hampton (LAC)
Reasons for Optimism:
Hampton enters the NFL as a 22nd overall pick in a perfect landing spot: a run-heavy, scoring-friendly offense led by Jim Harbaugh. The Chargers' offensive identity under Harbaugh and Greg Roman is crystal clear: they want to pound the rock and control the game. Hampton could be the beneficiary of that volume, and if he separates himself from Najee Harris, the rookie could explode down the stretch. He’s getting first-team reps in camp thanks to Harris’ injury, which only increases his chances of seizing control of the backfield early.
Reasons for Pessimism:
The primary concern is uncertainty around workload. While no longer elite, Najee Harris is still only 27 and has posted four straight 1,000-yard seasons. He was signed for a reason and will likely have a defined role within the offense. Greg Roman has also favored two-back systems in the past, and with Harris’ pedigree, it’s hard to see him being a non-factor unless injury or ineffectiveness dictates it. Plus, the Chargers have said Harris is on track to be ready for Week 1 despite the offseason eye injury.
Final Verdict:
Hampton is the kind of mid-to-late round pick who could win you your league. The ceiling is undeniable, especially in this offense. But it’s also possible that he ends up in a 50/50 timeshare or less. He’s climbed up my rankings though, as Najee has continued to be sidelined with his eye injury that we aren’t getting a real answer on. Najee himself is on a new team, and the more time he misses, the greater chance Hampton runs away with the job. He’s not a player to go all-in on, but having multiple shares across your leagues makes a lot of sense given the path to a bell-cow role.
RB15: Chuba Hubbard (Car)
Reasons for Optimism:
Chuba Hubbard is a good player who continues to be underrated, likely due to lingering bias from being a fourth-round pick. Despite playing on a dysfunctional Panthers team last season, he delivered top-15 fantasy RB value and showed signs of even more upside down the stretch. He’s now locked into a contract through 2028, and the team treated him like a true bellcow by not bringing in serious backfield competition. Rico Dowdle is purely a depth piece. Hubbard also quietly caught over 40 passes, showing functional three-down ability.
Reasons for Pessimism:
The biggest hurdle for Hubbard is the game script. The Panthers were rarely in a position to run, and while his talent is evident, he's still tethered to an offense that ranked among the worst in football last year. If Bryce Young struggles again, Hubbard’s ceiling could be capped simply by a lack of scoring opportunities. And while he’s a capable receiver, he doesn’t profile as a dynamic pass-catching threat, especially with Dowdle now on the roster.
Final Verdict:
Hubbard is an undervalued asset with a high floor due to volume and a chance to climb into the RB1 conversation if the Panthers' offense improves (something that I think is a real possibility). I’m more than comfortable drafting him as a strong RB2 option, and he’s one of my favorite mid-round backs to target based on situation and opportunity.
RB16: Kenneth Walker III (Sea)
Reasons for Optimism:
Kenneth Walker III passes the eye test with flying colors. He looks electric with the ball in his hands, and it’s easy to believe you’re watching a top-tier NFL back. While his 3.7 YPC last year is underwhelming on the surface, many underlying metrics still grade him well, suggesting the inefficiency may not be all on him. A lot of his missed tackles had to occur behind the line of scrimmage due to the Seahawks' poor offensive line. With a new OC in Klint Kubiak and a fresh QB under center, the Seahawks could lean into a more run-heavy approach, primarily through outside zone concepts, a scheme Walker is tailor-made for. He’s also shown growth as a pass-catcher, hauling in 46 receptions last season, a key development for his PPR value. At just 24 years old, he still has room to grow.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Walker hasn’t been able to stay healthy for a full season, which continues to stunt his long-term production. Despite some boom weeks and tantalizing flashes, he has yet to finish inside the top 15 RBs in a season. The Seahawks' new-look offense is intriguing but brings uncertainty, and there’s still the presence of Zach Charbonnet, who has shown he can handle a large workload if needed. While Walker improved as a receiver, Seattle has rotated backs in passing situations before, and that role could fluctuate.
Final Verdict:
Walker is tempting to draft because of his raw ability, and now with an improved pass-catching profile, he’s even more viable in PPR formats. If you take the plunge, pairing him with Charbonnet for insurance is smart. If everything clicks, there’s definite RB1 upside, but you can’t bank on that outcome. He’s a swing-for-upside pick, worth targeting, but you’ll want a backup plan in place.
RB17: TreVeyon Henderson (NE)
Reasons for Optimism:
Henderson could be the rookie breakout nobody’s talking about. The Patriots invested a high second-round pick in him, signaling a clear desire to make him an integral part of their offense. He’s a strong receiver and a solid pass blocker, two traits this New England offense sorely needs, especially with a young quarterback. If he can earn passing-down work early, he can be a true three-down back. With Mike Vrabel taking over, we could see a true run-heavy ball control philosophy, which only helps his case.
Reasons for Pessimism:
There are a few “ifs” baked into Henderson’s upside. Rhamondre Stevenson is still around, and he’s a proven back who won’t just disappear. You’re also betting on the Patriots' offense improving, which is no sure thing after being one of the worst in the league last season. Even if Henderson earns a starting role, it may take some time for him to separate himself from Stevenson to become a consistent RB2 option.
Final Verdict:
Henderson is a high-upside pick with a straightforward but speculative path to relevance. If you believe in the Patriots offense bouncing back and Henderson’s talent shining through, he’s worth taking a shot on. Just understand that there’s real risk involved, and early-season usage may frustrate. He’s better suited as an RB2/Flex with upside than someone you rely on out of the gate.
RB18: James Conner (Ari)
Reasons for Optimism:
James Conner remains reliable and effective, even if he doesn’t bring much flash. He finished as a low-end RB1 last year, and he’s now had back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons. The Cardinals trust him as their lead back, giving him a dominant share of touches, including the goal-line work. He also contributes in the passing game, and Arizona’s offense could be ascending under Kyler Murray.
Reasons for Pessimism:
The biggest red flags with Conner are age and durability. He played 16 games last season for the first time in his career, and now, at 30 years old, the historical trend of decline looms. While there’s no current competition for touches, that can change quickly if he starts to wear down or miss time, as the Cardinals took Trey Benson in the 3rd round last year.
Final Verdict:
You’re not going to get a “wow” reaction from your league when you draft Conner, but he’s a dependable option who can serve as a solid RB2. If he stays healthy, the role and workload are there for him to return good weekly value. Just don’t bank on a ceiling that likely isn’t coming.
RB19: Joe Mixon (Hou)
Reasons for Optimism:
Joe Mixon is currently dealing with a foot injury that landed him on the Non-Football Injury list, but that may present a buy-low opportunity if drafters get scared off. Before this issue, Mixon was one of my top personal targets. He has had a stranglehold on the Texans' backfield, averaging over 20 touches per game last year, and there’s little reason to expect that volume to disappear if healthy. Nick Chubb was brought in on a cheap deal and is no longer the player he once was, so the offense should continue to run through Mixon. Under new offensive coordinator Nick Caley, the Texans offense is expected to take another step forward, which could lead to more scoring opportunities for Mixon, who has also shown he’s a capable pass-catcher.
Reasons for Pessimism:
That foot injury is not new. Mixon dealt with similar issues last season; now, at age 29, durability is a significant concern. He has a long history of heavy usage, and it’s fair to wonder whether wear and tear is beginning to take its toll. If the injury continues to the point where he is at risk of missing the start of the season, you’ll have to decide on how much of a risk you want to take. The Texans also drafted Woody Marks, who might carve out a third-down role, and Caley may opt to ease Mixon’s burden in his first year running the offense.
Final Verdict:
I’m still bullish on Mixon if he’s healthy; he offers a high floor due to volume and should benefit from an ascending offense. That said, the injury status must be monitored closely. If he starts missing significant camp time or looks limited, this ranking may need to be adjusted even more. For now, I’m betting on Mixon’s role, talent, and situation, but don’t go into the season without a contingency plan in case age and mileage finally catch up.
RB20: James Cook (Buf)
Reasons for Optimism:
James Cook has now posted back-to-back 1,000-yard rushing seasons, has proven himself to be an efficient runner, and plays in one of the best offenses in football. Despite a relatively limited snap share, he’s demonstrated capability as a pass catcher and overall weapon in the Bills' offense. Even with touchdown regression expected, the offense should give him enough opportunities to still produce at a high level.
Reasons for Pessimism:
There are red flags. The rushing touchdown total (16) from last season screams regression, especially when you realize he had only two rushing TDs each of his previous two seasons and scored 9 of his 16 from outside the 6-yard line last year. He also played just 54% of the offensive snaps, which is low for a team’s lead back. That lack of elite usage caps his upside, especially with Ray Davis and Ty Johnson likely cutting into his workload again. You’re banking on elite efficiency over volume, which is always risky.
Final Verdict:
Cook is a tough player for me to rank because his production outpaces his usage. While a dip in touchdowns is likely, he’s still in an elite offense and could remain a strong RB2 with upside. If he sees even a modest bump in usage, he could sneak into the RB1 tier again, but that’s a gamble you’ll have to be comfortable with on draft day.
Tier 5 — The Last Stop for a Viable RB2
This is the final tier where I could feel comfortable with any of these guys being your RB2. There’s a lot more uncertainty here, whether it’s role, health, or offense quality, but you could get away with them starting for you if needed. At the very least, they carry enough upside to serve as an intriguing flex option if things break right, even though wide receivers are usually the preferred flex play. Think of this group as the last line between “set-and-forget starter” territory and the lottery ticket pool.
RB21: Isiah Pacheco (KC)
Reasons for Optimism:
Pacheco enters 2025 healthy and with zero competition in the Chiefs’ backfield. Almost a full year removed from his early-season leg injury, he looks ready to resume his lead back role on one of the league’s most premier teams. He’s shown toughness, burst, and pass-catching ability, and there’s reason to believe he can hit 40+ receptions this season. If the Chiefs' offense returns to its high-scoring form, Pacheco could benefit tremendously with touchdown upside, especially since Mahomes isn’t a threat to vulture goal-line carries.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Despite his clear path to touches, Pacheco has yet to produce a 1,000-yard rushing season, and his injury history, including last season’s broken leg, raises mild durability concerns. He also hasn’t consistently delivered week-winning fantasy performances, and the Chiefs’ recent offensive decline leaves a question mark about overall scoring opportunity.
Final Verdict:
Pacheco offers excellent value at his current draft price. He was going as an RB1 just a year ago and now falls into the RB3 range, despite having the same role and less competition. While he hasn’t “put it all together” yet, there’s a real path for him to become a reliable RB2 with upside, especially if the Chiefs take a step forward offensively. He’s a smart target for drafters in my opinion.
RB22: RJ Harvey (Den)
Reasons for Optimism:
RJ Harvey has more upside than most people realize. I don’t expect him to dominate right out of the gate, but if there’s one rookie back who could pull a “Bucky Irving,” a breakout second half, and great fantasy playoffs, my bet is on Harvey. The Broncos had one of the worst rushing attacks in football last year, despite their offensive line grading out as the best run-blocking unit in the league. That’s why Denver invested a second-round pick in Harvey, and why he could seize the opportunity. The signing of J.K. Dobbins cooled his hype, which is understandable; timeshares are a red flag. But I don’t view Dobbins as a long-term obstacle. He signed late, for minimal money, and he’s not much of a pass-catcher. Harvey, on the other hand, has a receiving-back pedigree and steps into a Sean Payton offense that has never finished lower than 6th in RB targets across his 13 years as a head coach. Also: Dobbins is notoriously injury-prone, and trusting him to stay healthy for 17 games is a reach.
Reasons for Pessimism:
This likely won’t be a “boom early” type of player. Dobbins will have a role, and Harvey may need to earn his way into a featured spot. There's also some risk that the offense will take time to gel. Bo Nix is still a young quarterback, and while the offense looks good on paper, it’s not a lock. You may be burning a roster spot early, waiting for Harvey to emerge.
Final Verdict:
I love stashing Harvey late in drafts. He may not help you in Week 1, but in PPR leagues, his receiving potential is real, and the path to a lead role is wider than it seems. Payton loves using pass-catching backs, the Broncos invested in Harvey, and Bo Nix has shown a willingness to check down. Harvey could explode in the second half if the stars align and be a fantasy difference-maker when it matters most.
RB23: Tony Pollard (Ten)
Reasons for Optimism:
Pollard quietly put together a solid RB2 season last year, rushing for over 1,000 yards and finishing 10th in touches per game. He’s consistently caught 40+ passes per season, and that receiving work could be even more valuable now with a rookie quarterback in Tennessee who may rely on short checkdowns when the offense stalls. Concerns about Tyjae Spears increasing his workload are also cooled due to his preseason high ankle sprain, which will affect his readiness to start the season.
Reasons for Pessimism:
For Pollard to remain fantasy-relevant, he’ll likely need volume-driven production, and that’s a risky bet in a low-scoring, bottom-tier offense. The Titans are projected to be one of the worst teams in the league, and Pollard’s touchdown opportunities may be minimal. While Spears hasn’t proven himself yet, he’s talented enough to eat into passing downs or take over in case Pollard struggles.
Final Verdict:
Pollard is a steady, volume-based option with low-end RB2 appeal, especially in full PPR formats. While he lacks the upside of younger backs in better offenses, he offers a stable workload and passing game floor. Just temper expectations, without touchdowns, he may need 25 touches a week to make a real fantasy impact. Still, he’s worth drafting at cost if you’re looking for a reliable RB3 or flex option.
RB24: Breece Hall (NYJ)
Reasons for Optimism:
Let’s not forget, Breece Hall was the 1.1 for many experts just a year ago. Now, he’s often available 30+ picks later, which presents a potential buying opportunity. He’s only 24 years old and now fully healthy. Hall’s 75+ receptions two seasons ago showcased how dynamic he could be in a full PPR format, even in an inept offense that leaned heavily on checkdowns. With Aaron Rodgers gone and the Jets likely to run the ball far more in 2025, Hall could see a more consistent rushing workload. His pedigree and past production suggest there's something there.
Reasons for Pessimism:
The biggest question remains: Is Hall an elite talent, or was his value inflated by a massive reception total in a dysfunctional offense? He’s yet to crack 1,000 rushing yards in a season, and now he’s playing alongside Justin Fields, a QB who’s notoriously quick to take off running rather than dumping it off, possibly capping Hall’s target volume. Add in the presence of Braelon Allen, who’s flashed upside and may cut into touches, and it becomes harder to project Hall as a clear lead back.
Final Verdict:
Hall is a complicated eval. There’s enough past production and youth to keep him firmly in the RB2 conversation, but he’s no longer a player I’m prioritizing. The change in offensive environment, a mobile QB who caps reception totals, and some doubts about Hall's actual rushing ceiling make him more of a value-dependent target. I’m not crossing him off, but he’s only in the mix when the price is right.
RB25: D’Andre Swift (Chi)
Reasons for Optimism:
Swift is one of the more tantalizing players to evaluate. He’s finished between RB19 and RB23 in each of his five NFL seasons, spanning three different teams. That kind of consistency makes it easy to slot him as a reliable RB2, but part of you still wonders if there’s untapped upside. Last year with the Bears, Swift quietly posted over 1,300 scrimmage yards and 6 rushing touchdowns, continuing his track record as a pass-catching weapon with 40+ receptions. With Ben Johnson now calling plays, there’s at least a chance this Bears offense makes a significant leap forward. If so, Swift could benefit from more efficient touches and increased scoring chances.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Still, let’s not forget that Ben Johnson was the OC in Detroit when the Lions opted to trade Swift and draft Jahmyr Gibbs. It’s unclear how much long-term trust Johnson has in him. Swift has also never been a strong goal-line rusher, and with Roschon Johnson still on the roster and Caleb Williams’ mobility, there’s some risk of losing high-value touches near the goal-line.
Final Verdict:
Swift is a steady RB2/FLEX in full PPR who should once again post solid numbers with the occasional big game. If Johnson can elevate the Bears' offense, Swift could flirt with mid-range RB2 value. But the uncertain role and possible touchdown concerns create pessimism.
RB26: David Montgomery (Det)
Reasons for Optimism:
Despite splitting work with Jahmyr Gibbs last season and getting hurt, Montgomery still finished as an RB2, posting 12 touchdowns in just 14 games and serving as the Lions' primary goal-line back. Detroit has one of the best scoring environments in football, which should again put Montgomery in a position to capitalize near the end zone. Even in a timeshare, he’s proven to have standalone fantasy value.
Reasons for Pessimism:
You know my stance, I’m generally out on split backfields. Jahmyr Gibbs looks primed to take even more of the workload, and I believe the grip he has on the lead role is tighter than it was last season. Montgomery is touchdown dependent, and banking on 10+ TDs again is risky, especially since TDs are one of the least predictable fantasy stats.
Final Verdict:
Montgomery is a solid fantasy asset, but I don’t love drafting him where he’s going. The upside is capped, and the floor could drop if his role shrinks or the touchdowns dry up. He’s more of a bye-week filler or low-end flex, unless injury opens up more opportunity. I’m fine with letting someone else bet on that.
RB27: Aaron Jones (Min)
Reasons for Optimism:
Despite battling injuries last year, Jones still managed to play all 17 games and maintain his reputation as one of the most efficient runners in the NFL. In his second year with the Vikings, he’ll step into a backfield that should feature him heavily, especially in the passing game, where he caught 51 balls last season. With rookie QB J.J. McCarthy under center (a non-rushing quarterback), there’s a realistic chance Jones sees plenty of check-downs and safety-valve targets. If he can stay healthy, there’s an absolute path to outperforming expectations.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Injuries have been a recurring theme throughout Jones’ career. He may have suited up for every game last season, but he was banged up for much of it, and he’s now approaching 31, an age where running backs historically tend to decline. The Vikings also went out of their way to acquire Jordan Mason, a competent backup who could eat into Jones' volume to keep him fresh for the playoff push, which may cap his weekly ceiling.
Final Verdict:
Jones is a savvy, high-floor veteran with real RB2 potential in PPR formats thanks to his receiving skills and expected volume. But he carries injury risk and age-related downside. If you draft him, have a plan for a backup or RB depth, and don’t expect a prime Aaron Jones, but understand that a solid and consistent season is very much on the table.
Tier 6 — Shaky Starters on Shaky Ground
This small tier is made up of running backs who enter the season as projected starters, but the foundation under them is far from secure. They’re tied to bad offenses and/or teams that don’t project to run the ball often, and they share a backfield with other players who can, and probably will, eat into their workload. Their roles are vulnerable, meaning they could lose their starting spot before the season ends. If you draft one, know there is a scenario where they could no value at all.
RB28 – Travis Etienne Jr. (Jax)
Reasons for Optimism:
Etienne is still just 26 years old and only a year removed from being a second-round pick in most fantasy drafts. New OC Liam Coen brings a fresh offensive perspective to Jacksonville, and if he features Etienne as a dual-threat weapon, there’s real bounce-back potential here. The price is also right: you no longer pay a premium to take the risk. This is a former first-rounder who’s flashed elite-level juice before.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Etienne’s 2024 was a disaster, finishing outside the top 35 RBs despite 15 games played. His explosiveness seemed to vanish, and the team noticed. Tank Bigsby began cutting into his workload, and the Jags went out and drafted Bhayshul Tuten, a dynamic athlete who could carve out a role quickly. Plus, this regime didn’t draft Etienne, so there's no loyalty or pressure to feature him.
Final Verdict:
Etienne is a volatile asset; he might be washed, or he might be a league-winner in the seventh round. If you’re looking for upside over safety, this is the type of player to bet on. Just be aware that the floor is someone who could be cut early on in the season from your roster.
RB29 – Jaylen Warren (Pit)
Reasons for Optimism:
Jaylen Warren has shown flashes of being a productive, efficient back in a complementary role, and now, for the first time, Najee Harris is gone. That opens the door for Warren to potentially take on a larger workload in an offense that still lacks a clear identity. He’s also a capable pass catcher, hauling in 38 receptions last season, and could carve out a valuable role in that area, especially if the offense struggles to push the ball downfield.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Despite Harris’s exit, Warren does not have the backfield to himself. The Steelers drafted Kaleb Johnson, a physical, downhill runner who could be the preferred early-down and goal-line option. The offense is also a major unknown. With Aaron Rodgers and Arthur Smith in town, it’s unclear how run-heavy or effective this unit will be. Rodgers led a Jets team that ran the fewest times in the league last season. If the volume isn’t there and Johnson dominates short-yardage work, Warren’s upside becomes severely capped.
Final Verdict:
Warren is an intriguing flex option with some pass-catching upside, but he’s more of a bet on role expansion than talent. If Johnson takes control of the rushing workload, Warren could remain in the same limited role we’ve already seen, efficient but not overly fantasy-relevant.
RB30: Brian Robinson Jr. (Was)
Reasons for Optimism:
Robinson is the clear lead rusher in one of the best offenses in the NFL. Before his midseason injury last year, he was top 3 in rushing touchdowns, showing his ability to convert scoring chances in a dynamic system. Washington doesn’t have a deep backfield behind him, and if Austin Ekeler (now 30 and coming off another injury-plagued year) slows down or misses time, Robinson’s role could expand even more.
Reasons for Pessimism:
He’s not much of a pass-catcher, and that job will likely belong to Ekeler, capping Robinson’s PPR ceiling. Jayden Daniels also poses a threat near the goal line, as he’s a legitimate rushing QB who could vulture touchdowns and take carries away. Robinson has also dealt with injuries during his short career, which adds some risk.
Final Verdict:
While he’s unlikely to win you a league, Robinson is a solid and stable pick with a path to valuable touches in a strong offense. At this point in the draft, that’s hard to pass up. Just don’t expect a massive leap unless something happens to Ekeler.
RB31: Tyrone Tracy Jr. (NYG)
Reasons for Optimism:
After being drafted in the 5th round last year, Tracy made the most of his opportunities when given work, especially after Week 4, posting multiple weeks with 20+ fantasy points. A converted wide receiver, he brings legit pass-catching chops to the backfield, giving him a path to stay involved even when the Giants are trailing (which could be often).
Reasons for Pessimism:
Let’s be honest, this offense is bleak. The Giants are projected to be one of the worst teams in football and face the league's hardest strength of schedule, which means negative game scripts could cap Tracy’s rushing volume and touchdown chances. New addition Russell Wilson isn't known for targeting running backs heavily, and the selection of RB Cam Skattebo in the 4th round further muddies the backfield outlook. Tracy’s role may not be as secure or valuable as hoped.
Final Verdict:
Tracy is a talented player with a unique skillset, but he’s stuck in a brutal situation. He has some low-end RB2/FLEX appeal in PPR leagues based on projected volume and receiving ability, but his weekly ceiling is limited unless the Giants' offense somehow overperforms expectations. He's worth a bench spot, just keep expectations realistic.
Tier 7 — The Backseat Breakouts and Role Players
This tier is where we move into backs who aren’t the main guy in their offense. Some are complementary pieces expected to split work fairly evenly with another back, while others are more traditional handcuffs that could explode if the starter goes down. A few of these players have true starting-caliber upside in the right scenario, while others are more likely to see a gradual uptick in targets or touches if the player ahead of them struggles. Think of this group as a mix of calculated stashes and high-upside contingency plays, players you might not start right away, but who could become weekly factors if circumstances break their way.
RB32: Kaleb Johnson (Pit)
Reasons for Optimism:
Johnson is a perfect fit for an Arthur Smith-style offense, physical, downhill, and designed to wear defenses down. Johnson brings the size and style to thrive in a ground-heavy scheme and could emerge as the preferred goal-line option in Pittsburgh. As a rookie, his upside is tied to volume, and the opportunity is there: Jaylen Warren profiles more as a change-of-pace back, while Johnson could be the one to grind out early downs and finish drives.
Reasons for Pessimism:
The Steelers' offensive identity is in flux. While Arthur Smith has a long track record of run-heavy schemes, Aaron Rodgers now enters the mix after coming from a Jets team that ran the ball fewer times than any other in 2024. If Rodgers exerts heavy influence, this could skew toward a pass-first attack, a worst-case scenario for a rookie who doesn’t yet own the backfield. Even if Johnson gets the early-down work, limited passing game usage and a potential timeshare cap his ceiling.
Final Verdict:
Kaleb Johnson’s value comes down to which version of the Steelers’ offense takes shape: Arthur Smith’s power-run attack or Aaron Rodgers’ aerial assault. If the former wins out, Johnson could smash his ADP with goal-line touches and steady volume. But if Rodgers steers the ship, Johnson may struggle to find consistent work, making him a volatile but intriguing mid-to-late round dart throw.
RB33: Zach Charbonnet (Sea)
Reasons for Optimism:
Charbonnet is a prime handcuff worth targeting. When Kenneth Walker III has missed time, which happens more often than you’d like, Charbonnet immediately steps into a featured role, often seeing 20+ touches and producing strong fantasy returns. He’s also a capable pass catcher who has carved out consistent work in that area. With a new offensive coordinator in town, there’s potential for the Seahawks to move toward a more balanced committee, giving Charbonnet value even without an injury. Plus, he’s a second-round pick who’s still just 24, his best football could still be ahead.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Charbonnet’s fantasy appeal is directly tied to Walker’s health. As long as Walker is on the field, Charbonnet remains a clear No. 2 in the backfield, and barring a philosophical shift toward a true split backfield, his weekly value is limited. The new offense could hurt as much as it helps, and there’s no guarantee Charbonnet expands his role unless injury forces it.
Final Verdict:
Zach Charbonnet is one of the most valuable backups in fantasy. Even if he’s not startable out of the gate, his upside when given the reins is undeniable. He’s worth stashing in deeper leagues or if you’re building a bench with contingency upside, especially if you’re drafting Walker.
RB34: Jerome Ford (Cle)
Reasons for Optimism:
With all the uncertainty surrounding Quinshon Judkins, Jerome Ford looks like the likely Week 1 starter in Cleveland. Judkins hasn’t even signed yet and hasn’t practiced all offseason, giving Ford a window to establish himself in the early part of the season. When given opportunities last year, Ford delivered decent fantasy value, handling extended workloads in multiple games. Any back projected to open the season as a starter deserves attention, even in a bad offense.
Reasons for Pessimism:
The Browns' offense projects to be one of the worst in the league, capping Ford’s touchdown and yardage upside. He’s also on borrowed time, once Judkins is active and acclimated, there’s a good chance he takes over. Ford’s not much of a pass-catching threat, and Cleveland doesn’t figure to offer many positive game scripts for rushing.
Final Verdict:
Ford is a short-term bridge option at best. He could have early-season value while the Judkins situation sorts itself out, but his upside is low and his role is shaky long-term.
RB35: Rachaad White (TB)
Reasons for Optimism:
Despite taking a backseat to Bucky Irving in 2024, Rachaad White still carved out a consistent role in the Bucs offense. He finished as the RB24 last season thanks largely to his 51 receptions, marking his third consecutive season with 50+ catches. That kind of PPR-friendly volume gives him a solid weekly floor. In one of the league’s better offenses, he remains the clear passing-down back and could jump back into the lead role if Irving were to miss time. White’s familiarity with the system and three-down ability keep him fantasy-relevant.
Reasons for Pessimism:
White lost the RB1 role and has never been an especially effective pure runner, averaging just 3.8 YPC for his career and lacking big-play explosiveness. He had only 3 rushing touchdowns last season, and his red zone role appears to have shrunk significantly. Even if Bucky Irving were to get hurt, Sean Tucker could potentially eat into early-down or goal-line work. White is no longer in line for bellcow usage, and his path to top-20 upside looks murky at best.
Final Verdict:
White’s 2023 breakout was always likely to regress, and it did, but that doesn’t make him fantasy irrelevant. As a high-end handcuff and pass-catching specialist in a strong offense, he has RB2 upside if things break right. Just don’t draft him expecting lightning to strike twice.
RB36: Jordan Mason (Min)
Reasons for Optimism:
The Vikings clearly made a pointed effort to acquire Mason, trading draft capital and signing him to a two-year deal despite a relatively crowded RB market. While he’s officially behind Aaron Jones on the depth chart, Mason has been extremely efficient in his limited work with San Francisco (career 5.3 YPC) and now lands in a spot where opportunity could strike. With Jones turning 31 and coming off an injury-plagued season, it’s entirely possible the Vikings manage his workload, giving Mason a weekly role even without an injury. If Jones does go down, Mason has a clear path to lead-back volume on a competent offense.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Despite the upside, Mason is still just a handcuff until proven otherwise. He’s never handled more than 153 carries in a season and hasn’t yet shown he can thrive in the passing game. It’s also possible the Vikings rotate other backs or even bring in help if Jones gets hurt, meaning Mason’s upside is somewhat speculative. His path to relevance depends heavily on injury or a committee role emerging.
Final Verdict:
Mason is a strong handcuff with standalone appeal as a depth piece. His efficiency and the Vikings’ interest are encouraging signs, and with Jones’ age and injury history, he’s one of the better lottery tickets in the later rounds of fantasy drafts. Don’t start him Week 1, but stash him with intent.
RB37: Braelon Allen (NYJ)
Reasons for Optimism:
Allen flashed legit ability in 2024 and at times looked like the most efficient back on the Jets, even outshining Breece Hall in limited spurts. At just 21 years old, he’s younger than many of this year’s rookies and still has plenty of room to develop. With Justin Fields now under center, the offense should be more dynamic on the ground than it was with the stagnant Aaron Rodgers-led unit last year. There’s upside here if anything happens to Hall or if the Jets choose to make this more of a committee.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Hall is still the alpha here, and Allen remains the clear RB2. Fields will also likely vulture rushing work, especially goal-line touchdowns, from both backs. Even in the best-case scenario, it’s hard to see a clear path to standalone weekly fantasy value unless an injury or a major role shift occurs.
Final Verdict:
Allen is an intriguing stash in deeper formats. He’s young, explosive, and tied to a potentially improving offense. But unless Hall misses time, Allen’s fantasy relevance will likely be capped. Keep him on your radar, just don’t expect immediate returns.
RB38: Austin Ekeler (Was)
Reasons for Optimism
Ekeler proved he’s still got juice in 2024, leading all running backs in yards per touch (min. 100 attempts) with 6.5 and averaging over 10 fantasy points per game before a Week 11 concussion. He returned for the playoffs and immediately slid back into roughly half the backfield snaps, showing that Washington still trusts him. His elite receiving chops have always been his calling card, and in an offense that took a big leap forward under Jayden Daniels, those targets could keep him in the weekly flex conversation.
Reasons for Pessimism
He’s another year older and approaching the cliff where running backs can fade fast. Daniels’ rushing presence eats into high-value goal-line touches, while Brian Robinson was thriving before injury and could reclaim a sizable role. Even with a healthy workload split, Ekeler’s weekly ceiling is lower without consistent red-zone work, and the age + injury combination makes him a volatile hold.
Final Verdict
Ekeler isn’t the every-week stud he once was, but his efficiency and pass-game role give him value as a bye-week fill-in or low-end RB2 in PPR leagues. The days of banking on double-digit touchdowns are gone, yet as long as his legs hold up, he’s a safe bet to produce in spurts. You just need to be ready to pivot if the age curve finally wins.
RB39: J.K. Dobbins (Den)
Reasons for Optimism:
Dobbins quietly produced at a solid level in 2024 with the Chargers, showing he could still be a capable contributor despite multiple major injuries early in his career. Now in Denver, he joins a Sean Payton offense with one of the best run-blocking lines in the league and should open the season with a meaningful role. If healthy, Dobbins has flashed RB2 production and still has the skillset to capitalize on a quality opportunity.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Despite his production last year, the Chargers let him walk without much hesitation, and league-wide interest was tepid. He’s now competing with rookie RJ Harvey, who’s generating buzz, and Audric Estime, who remains in the mix. Dobbins is also still recovering from a major Achilles injury prior to last year, and there’s concern about his overall speed and explosiveness, as memories of him getting caught from behind several times last year linger.
Final Verdict:
Dobbins is no longer the high-upside breakout candidate he once was, but he's not totally washed either. He’s a decent floor play early in the season in deeper leagues, but you should expect his role to diminish as younger backs like Harvey ascend.
RB 40: Najee Harris (LAC)
Reasons for Optimism:
Najee Harris is the epitome of high floor, low ceiling. He’s played four full NFL seasons without missing a single game and has topped 1,000 rushing yards in all of them. He’s also proven himself as a capable pass-catcher; remember, he had over 70 receptions as a rookie. Jim Harbaugh’s offense in Los Angeles is expected to be run-heavy, and Harris should have a defined role early in the year while Omarion Hampton is still getting acclimated. Even with Hampton looming, Najee is the type of steady, experienced back Harbaugh tends to trust.
Reasons for Pessimism:
The biggest problem for Harris is that his path to real fantasy relevance depends almost entirely on an injury or major stumble from Hampton. Long term, this looks like Hampton’s backfield. On top of that Harris suffered an eye injury during a July 4th fireworks incident that’s caused him to miss valuable training camp reps, not ideal when learning a new offense on a new team. Any missed time gives Hampton a chance to take control, and it’s entirely possible Harris becomes just a rotational piece.
Final Verdict:
As this eye situation has continued to linger without real clarity, I have continued to drop Harris in my rankings. He is on a new team and missing camp time, even as a veteran, which is not ideal. That being said, Harris is a known quantity, durable, experienced, and capable. But his upside is capped, and with a rookie breathing down his neck and a mysterious offseason injury, he’s mostly a short-term play with little long-term juice.
RB 41: Rhamondre Stevenson (NE)
Reasons for Optimism:
Stevenson has been written off by many in the fantasy community, but there’s still a case for him. While everyone expects TreVeyon Henderson to immediately take over the backfield, rookie running backs don’t always dominate immediately. Stevenson could still have a meaningful role early on, particularly if Henderson underwhelms. The Patriots’ offense should also improve in 2025 with better quarterback play and a more stable coaching staff.
Reasons for Pessimism:
The writing’s on the wall, even if Henderson doesn’t take over from the jump, the long-term plan clearly favors the rookie. Stevenson’s workload is very likely to shrink compared to prior seasons, and despite decent volume in the past, he’s never turned that into sustained fantasy success. His best season was heavily buoyed by 69 receptions, a number that will be tough to repeat with a mobile quarterback like Drake Maye, who may not check down as often.
Final Verdict:
Rhamondre Stevenson feels like a placeholder, a player who may have some early-season value, but is likely to fade as the season progresses. His upside is capped, his role is likely shrinking, and the new QB’s rushing tendencies may eat into his targets. Draft with extreme caution.
Tier 8 – Deep Stashes & Volatile Handcuffs
At this stage of the rankings, we’re in pure dart-throw territory. These players are either buried on the depth chart, stuck in offenses that won’t give them much early-season work, or carrying significant uncertainty about their role. For the rookies here, the reality is that meaningful snaps might be weeks (or months) away, and it’ll take multiple things breaking their way to unlock fantasy value.
The rest of this group consists of volatile handcuffs, guys who might benefit from an injury ahead of them, but aren’t guaranteed to step into a true workhorse role even in that scenario. Committees, skill set limitations, and bad offensive environments loom large. These are the players you take as speculative end-of-draft swings, hoping to hit on upside, but not ones you should plan to plug into your lineup anytime soon.
RB42 – Cam Skattebo (NYG)
Reasons for Optimism:
Skattebo became the first college RB to notch 1,500 rushing and 500 receiving yards in a season since Christian McCaffrey, showcasing legitimate three-down potential. He enters the NFL as a polished pass blocker, a trait that usually takes rookies time to develop, which could earn him early trust from coaches. If he earns a shot, his versatile skill set gives him sneaky stash appeal.
Reasons for Pessimism:
As it stands, Tyrone Tracy Jr. is ahead of him on the depth chart, and Tracy isn’t some aging vet; he’s also a young back who flashed upside late in 2024. Skattebo is unlikely to win the job outright, and even if he does, he lands on a Giants offense that is expected to struggle, especially with the hardest strength of schedule in the NFL. Game script won’t often favor the running backs, and he’ll need time and patience to become fantasy-relevant.
Final Verdict:
There’s talent here, and if Tracy falters, Skattebo could become a thing. But he’s a bench stash at best to start the year, and you're betting on many variables breaking his way in a bad offense. Don’t be shocked if the talent wins out eventually, but don’t bank on it in redraft.
RB43: Ray Davis (BUF)
Reasons for Optimism:
Ray Davis gets more intriguing by the day as James Cook continues his holdout. Unlike some other players in similar situations, Cook doesn’t have much leverage, the Bills already operated with a committee approach last year, and Davis has been getting valuable first-team reps in training camp. Even if Cook returns soon, Davis is in a position to carve out a consistent role. Cook only played 54% of snaps last year, leaving room for Davis to grow into more work on one of the best offenses in football. Cook scored 16 rushing touchdowns last season, and it's entirely possible Davis vultures a few of those, especially in short-yardage situations.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Even without James Cook, there are still multiple mouths to feed in this backfield. Ty Johnson is hanging around as a passing down back, and more importantly, Josh Allen is one of the most prolific red-zone runners in football, especially near the goal line. Davis likely needs either a Cook injury or a continued holdout to reach fantasy relevance this year.
Final Verdict:
Davis is a smart stash with legit upside, especially if Cook's holdout lingers. Even if that doesn’t happen, there’s a path for Davis to emerge as a touchdown-dependent FLEX option by midseason in Buffalo’s high-powered offense.
RB44: Isaac Guerendo (SF)
Reasons for Optimism:
Guerendo is a pure handcuff, but one with massive upside. If Christian McCaffrey were to miss time, and given his injury history, that’s a real possibility; Guerendo could step into a massive workload in one of the league’s most efficient offenses. Kyle Shanahan has a long track record of funneling touches to one lead back when his starter is out, and with Jordan Mason now in Minnesota, Guerendo is clearly the next man up. He averaged 5.0 YPC in limited action last year and flashed enough as a pass catcher to handle a full workload if needed.
Reasons for Pessimism:
He doesn’t have any standalone value while McCaffrey is healthy. Guerendo has battled injuries himself, as he is also dealing with one now, limiting confidence in his ability to handle a heavy role. The 49ers also drafted Jordan James, a powerful back who could earn a complementary or even split role in McCaffrey’s absence.
Final Verdict:
As pure handcuffs go, few have more upside than Guerendo. He’s one of the best late-round darts you can throw, especially if you’re investing in McCaffrey early or looking to stash high-upside backups on your bench. That being said, even in limited roles, he hasn’t been able to stay healthy, so there shouldn’t be a ton of confidence that he would be able to handle a full workload even if he got it.
RB45: Javonte Williams (Dal)
Reasons for Optimism:
Javonte Williams is still just 25 and now joins a Dallas offense that could present more scoring chances than he ever saw in Denver. He claims this is the first offseason since his devastating 2022 knee injury that he’s felt truly healthy, and if that’s true, a return to form isn’t impossible. There’s a path to opportunity too, as the Cowboys haven’t handed the job to anyone outright. If Williams flashes early, he could carve out a lead role.
Reasons for Pessimism:
His 2024 tape tells a rough story: Williams ranked third-worst in the league in yards after contact per rush (2.4) and graded out as one of the least elusive backs in the NFL. He failed to capitalize despite running behind arguably the best run-blocking offensive line. Now he’s in a crowded Dallas backfield featuring Miles Sanders, Jalen Blue, and rookie Phil Mafah, so there's no guarantee he even makes the 53-man roster, let alone earns meaningful touches. His fantasy relevance last year mainly was propped up by short-area checkdowns in a Sean Payton/Bo Nix offense, a situation that won't repeat itself in Dallas.
Final Verdict:
There was a time when Williams was viewed as a future star, but that window may have closed. Unless he looks like his old self early in camp, it’s hard to justify anything but a late-round flyer. Even in a good offense, the volume and efficiency are serious question marks.
RB46: Bhayshul Tuten (Jax)
Reasons for Optimism:
Tuten brings big-play upside to a murky Jacksonville backfield. He has legit 4.3 speed and some experience as a pass catcher from his time at Virginia Tech, giving him potential as a 3-down back if things break right. With a new coaching staff in town and a backfield that is far from settled, Tuten has a chance to carve out a surprising role if he impresses in camp.
Reasons for Pessimism:
It’s still a long shot. Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby are both ahead of him on the depth chart, and both have a substantial edge in terms of NFL experience and early-down trust. Tuten may get passing down looks, but it's unlikely he gets the keys to the offense unless injuries or ineffectiveness strike ahead of him. And with Jacksonville’s offense still developing under Liam Coen, it’s not a slam-dunk environment for fantasy points.
Final Verdict:
Tuten is a fun late-round dart throw with a lot of athletic upside and a chance to surprise, but the path to meaningful volume is steep unless chaos hits. Keep an eye on camp reports, but don’t overreach.
RB47: Tank Bigsby (Jax)
Reasons for Optimism:
There’s a lot of uncertainty in the Jaguars’ backfield, creating an opportunity for value. With Liam Coen taking over as offensive coordinator, roles may shift, and Bigsby could carve out a real piece of the pie. If he wins the early-down role, you're getting a potential starter in the later rounds of fantasy drafts. In that sense, the appeal is clear.
Reasons for Pessimism:
I’m lower on Bigsby than consensus because I don’t see the ceiling. He’s not much of a pass-catcher, and even if he does emerge as the lead runner, Travis Etienne and Bhayshul Tuten are still likely to remain part of the weekly game plan. I don’t expect Jacksonville’s offense to become elite either suddenly, so the scoring opportunities may not be there to make a grinder-style role truly valuable.
Final Verdict:
Bigsby has a path to volume, but I tend to prefer higher-upside handcuffs in this range. If he hits, it’ll likely be as a touchdown-dependent early-down back with limited receiving work, which caps his overall fantasy value.
RB48: Quinshon Judkins (Cle)
Reasons for Optimism:
Before the off-field complications, Judkins looked like a potential rookie steal. He entered the league with a clear path to volume, especially with Nick Chubb no longer in Cleveland. Judkins’ physicality and downhill style seemed well-suited to soak up early-down and goal-line work, especially in a team with limited options.
Reasons for Pessimism:
But everything has changed. Judkins is still unsigned and remains away from the team. There is no real timetable for him to start being with the team. Even if/when he gets signed, he could face discipline from the league, and even if he does sign soon, he'll be behind on reps and chemistry. You likely can’t stash him on IR in redraft formats, so holding him could clog a valuable bench spot for weeks without any clear payoff. Add in the fact that Cleveland’s offense may struggle to generate high-quality RB opportunities, and this becomes a risky stash at best.
Final Verdict:
Judkins was once a clear sleeper candidate, but the current situation makes him nearly undraftable outside of deeper benches or leagues with dedicated stash spots. The upside hasn’t disappeared, but the path to realizing it has become far murkier.
Tier 9 – Watchlist Warriors
This final tier is full of players who likely won’t hear their names called in most drafts, but they’re worth tucking away in the back of your mind. They’re not roster-worthy right now, but they have at least some conceivable path to playing time, whether that’s through an injury ahead of them, unexpected movement on the depth chart, or standout performances in camp.
Consider this group your “break glass in case of emergency” list. If something changes in their situation, be it a teammate’s health, a surprising preseason usage shift, or a sudden trade, they could quickly become waiver-wire priorities.
RB49: Woody Marks (Hou)
Optimism:
Jo’Quavious “Woody” Marks, a 4th-round rookie out of Mississippi State, wasn’t expected to make much noise early, but Houston’s backfield dynamics have changed the equation. Joe Mixon’s health status is murky, and he’s coming off a season where injuries were already an issue. Nick Chubb was brought in as a backup, but reports suggest he’s still far from his pre-injury form, making a feature role unlikely. That leaves Marks, who was a strong receiving back in college, as the healthiest and most versatile option on the roster at the moment.
Pessimism:
The Texans could easily sign another veteran before Week 1, which would crush Marks’ short-term value. He’s still a rookie who profiles more as a complementary piece than a true workhorse, and he’s not currently projected to have a big role unless injuries or roster moves force it. Even if he gets playing time early, there’s no guarantee it’s more than a short-lived cameo.
Final Verdict:
Marks isn’t a draft-day target in most leagues, but he’s a name you need on your watchlist given the current uncertainty in Houston. If the Texans stand pat and Mixon or Chubb can’t go, Marks could open the season in a surprisingly valuable role. Remember him, especially in deeper formats or if you like stashing potential early-season risers.
RB50: Trey Benson (Ari)
Reasons for Optimism:
Benson was selected in the third round by the Cardinals the year prior and brings burst and explosiveness to the backfield. He sits behind the dependable but aging James Conner, who turned 30 this offseason and has a well-documented injury history. If Conner were to miss time, Benson would likely step into a major role in what could be a solid offense under Kyler Murray.
Reasons for Pessimism:
There’s no clear standalone value for Benson right now. Conner is entrenched as the starter, and as long as he’s healthy, Benson will likely be limited to spot duty or special teams. Arizona didn’t show much inclination last year to rotate backs heavily, and Benson has yet to prove anything at the NFL level.
Final Verdict:
Trey Benson is a pure handcuff, nothing more, nothing less. He’s worth a bench stash only if you’re building out depth or already have Conner. Otherwise, he’s a wait-and-see lottery ticket that requires patience.
RB51: Tyjae Spears (Ten)
Optimism:
Spears flashed real upside late last season, delivering three straight top-13 RB finishes during the fantasy playoffs. He’s an explosive playmaker, and if Tony Pollard were to miss time, Spears has the skill set to step into a much larger role and succeed in it.
Pessimism:
Pollard is locked in as the Titans’ workhorse, leaving Spears with inconsistent usage, often fewer than 10 touches per game. Tennessee’s offense projects to be one of the league’s weakest, a bad sign for RB production in general. On top of that, Spears is dealing with a high-ankle sprain that is likely to keep him out to start the season, putting him behind on both health and chemistry with new QB Cam Ward. There’s no clear timetable for when he’ll be 100% again, and he’s not positioned for a significant role without an injury ahead of him.
Final Verdict:
Spears is best left on the waiver wire in most redraft formats to start the year. His big-play potential is real, but between the bad offense, limited workload, and injury concerns, he’s more of a stash-and-hope play than a reliable RB.
RB52: Tyler Allgeier (Atl)
Reasons for Optimism:
Allgeier is a pure handcuff. While Bijan Robinson is the unquestioned starter, it’s the NFL, injuries happen. If Bijan were to miss time, Allgeier would likely step into a significant role immediately, especially in an offense that wants to run the ball. People forget that Allgeier, not Bijan, holds the Falcons’ rookie rushing record after posting over 1,000 yards in 2022. He’s shown he can produce when given volume.
Reasons for Pessimism:
There’s no standalone value here. Allgeier isn’t involved enough in the passing game, and Bijan’s role is only expanding. If Robinson stays healthy, Allgeier is just a depth piece on your bench that you’ll likely never start.
Final Verdict:
He’s a true handcuff, nothing more, nothing less. He’s not a must-draft unless you’re rostering Bijan and want protection, but Bijan managers should at least keep tabs on him in case the worst happens.
RB53: Jayden Blue (Dal)
Optimism:
Blue turned heads at the combine, clocking the second-fastest 40 time among RBs in this year’s class. That kind of speed is always intriguing, especially in an offense that could surprise with efficiency. While he profiles primarily as a receiving back, the two veterans ahead of him, Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders, have both struggled to consistently produce in recent years. If either falters or gets hurt, Blue’s athleticism could quickly put him in the conversation for meaningful touches.
Pessimism:
Despite his speed, Blue was still a Day 3 pick, which often signals limited early opportunity. He enters the year buried at third on the depth chart, and his skill set suggests he may be used in a niche passing-game role rather than as a high-volume runner. The Cowboys may prefer to lean on the experience of Williams and Sanders, especially early, making Blue more of a long-term flier than a 2025 contributor.
Final Verdict:
Blue is unlikely to be fantasy-relevant this season unless the backfield ahead of him collapses or he forces the issue with his play. Still, his speed and unknown ceiling make him a name worth monitoring in camp and early in the season, especially in a backfield with no locked-in long-term answer. Keep him on your watchlist, not your draft board.
RB54: Jaylen Wright (MIA)
Reasons for Optimism:
While De’Von Achane is firmly the lead back in Miami, there’s a blueprint for fantasy relevance in a secondary role. Just two seasons ago, Raheem Mostert scored 18 rushing touchdowns in this offense. Wright has the size advantage over Achane and could potentially carve out a goal-line role, especially considering the Dolphins’ struggles in short-yardage rushing last year. Even Tyreek Hill has publicly stated that Miami might benefit from a bigger back at the goal line, a role Wright could fill.
Reasons for Pessimism:
Despite his upside, Wright was almost entirely phased out of the offense late in 2024, logging just 9 touches over the final six games. Wright will need to show serious growth to secure meaningful snaps behind both Achane and, potentially, newly drafted Ollie Gordon II.
Final Verdict:
Wright is worth monitoring, but he’ll need to carve out a defined role as the backup and show he is getting at least some touches. There's upside if things break right, but as of now, he's a speculative stash at best.
