Week 16 featured some standout performances and key injuries that will significantly impact the Week 17 slate. With a condensed schedule this week, many primetime games are spread across different days, making it essential to adjust your fantasy strategy accordingly. Let’s take a quick look back at the notable performances and developments from Week 16 to help you prepare for the upcoming week.
QB - Jayden Daniels - 36.42, Jared Goff - 28.34, Joe Burrow - 22.98, Kyler Murray- 22.38
RB - James Conner - 29.6, Jahmyr Gibbs - 28.4, Jonathan Taylor - 42.8, James Cook - 30.6
WR - Brian Thomas Jr - 31.2, Terry McLaurin - 26.3, Ladd McConkey - 16.8, Jerry Jeudy - 24.8
TE - Chig Okonkwo - 19.1, Jonnu Smith - 12.2
D/ST- Bengals -18
Before we start on Week 17, I’ll share my best-scoring GPP lineup.
QB - Mac Jones - 13.88
RB - Jahmyr Gibbs - 28.4
RB - James Conner - 29.6
WR - Jaxon Smith-Njigba - 24
WR - Jauan Jennings - 9.1
WR - Dyami Brown - 8.6
TE - Brenton Strange – 3.2
FLEX - Saquon Barkley - 30
D/ST - Colts - 6
This entry was in a contest with unlimited ones which is why I went with a Mac Jones stack, which failed. After looking back, I can’t believe I didn’t put Brian Thomas Jr. in, please excuse me while I vomit.
I nailed the running back group, and I don’t think I submitted an entry last week without having Conner in it. Additionally, that included all my Underdog H2H matchups, which won. Barkley was pricey and as I expected, his price drove down his roster percentage (10.38% out of 64,677 entries). Gibbs was lack-button play with teammate David Montgomery out. The Lion's lack of RB talent outside of Monty and Gibbs drove the team to give the majority of the work to Gibbs.
Outside of JSN, all my receivers stunk. The biggest thorn in the side was Jauan Jennings. I thought he had a good matchup then teammate Deebo Samuel (the guy I drafted a ton in bestball), finally showed up. Dyami Brown was a cheap play and I thought he could do some damage since he was on the field at the 2nd-highest rate of all Commanders WRs.
Sometimes the data works in your favor and it certainly did with Titans' TE Chig Okonkwo. Okonkwo had an 85% snap rate, one of his highest on the season and it led to strong production. As much as I’d like to continue using Okonkwo, his volatile snap counts are pushing me away. I talked up Arizona's Trey McBride as an awesome play and he was putrid. Something has been up with the Cardinals' offense in the 2nd half of the season. James Conner is the only reliable piece at the moment.
The Colts had a decent matchup and performed just fine. The Falcons were not on my radar since their pass rush numbers are terrible but so is the Giants' offense.
This lineup didn’t cash but put up a solid 152.78 points.
Time to look at the data and improve for Week 17.
Week 17 DraftKings slate (Sun only)
Games to target:
1.CAR @ TB– 48.5 O/U
Implied totals: CAR 20.25; TB 28.25
2. NYJ @ BUF – 46.5 O/U
Implied totals: NYJ 18.5; BUF 28
3. TEN @ JAX – 39.5 O/U
Implied totals: TEN 19.25; JAX 20.25
4. GB @ MIN – 48 O/U
Implied totals: GB- 24.5; MIN- 23.5
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterback
Anthony Richardson ($5,900)
Just because you play someone in DFS doesn’t mean you have to watch. I strongly suggest NOT watching this game and just enjoying the 15+ fantasy points A-rich gets you. Also, Richardson has been rushing more since his return from injury. He has 26 carries over his last 3 games, averaging nearly 10/game. Few QBs can boast that floor. With a matchup against a tanking Giants squad, I could see a big game from the low-priced Richardson. The Giants' defense ranks 29th in EPA/play, EPA/dropback, and 25th in dropback success rate.
Side note: Richardson did pop up as a DNP on Thursday and is currently Questionable.
Josh Allen ($8,500)
Allen is an interesting consideration as I anticipate most cash players to use cheaper QBs. If he goes wild (in a good way), you’ll smoke your competition. Since Week 14, the Jets’ defense ranks 28th in EPA/play, EPA/dropback, and 31st in dropback success rate.
Side note: The Bills are locked into either a 2 or 3 seed. I only mention this because if the Jets don’t show up to play, the Bills could be conservative and take Allen out early, especially with the right-hand injury rumors.
Running Back
Bucky Irving ($6,700)
I don’t care that Irving is still sharing work with teammate Rachaad White, he is too explosive to not use, especially in his Week 17 matchup against Carolina. The Panthers rank 31st in EPA/rush and 32nd in rushing success rate. Irving is a lock-button play for me this week.
Saquon Barkley (8,600)/Josh Jacobs ($8,100)
Barkley and Jacobs have been volume kings and are being relied on heavily as expected. Barkley tied his 3rd-highest snap rate last week while Jacobs got some much-needed rest in an exhibition match against the Saints in Week 16. They should both be used heavily in important playoff-altering matchups in Week 17.
Other Options: Tyjae Spears ($5,400)
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams ($7,100)
Since the Jets Week 12 BYE, Adams has double-digit targets in every game, and I don’t anticipate that to end with a matchup on the road against a resilient Bills defense. Interestingly enough, Buffalo ranks 32nd in EPA/dropback and 30th in dropback success rate since Week 14.
Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,800)
BTJ has been crushing lately and I expect that to continue against a flailing Titans defense, as Tennessee has allowed four out of their last five opponents to score 30 or more points. Additionally, Thomas’ numbers have continued to shine, and here are some of his impressive stats:
11th in air yards
14th in targets
4th in YAC
6th in receiving yards
5th in TDs
13th in EPA
Needless to say, BTJ should continue his dominance in Week 17.
Adam Thielen ($5,700)
Thielen’s targets and yards/reception have dropped the past two weeks and yet, I’m not the slightest bit worried, as fellow WR Jalen Coker had a big Week 15 performance followed by a miserable outing in Week 16. It's become clear that Thielen is the 2nd best weapon in the Carolina offense. On the season, the Bucs' defense sits 21st in EPA/play, 23rd in EPA/dropback, and 31st in dropback success rate. Thielen is an excellent salary-saving play.
Other options: Calvin Ridley ($5,500), Mike Evans ($7,500)
Tight End
Brock Bowers ($6,700)
After trashing the Raiders coaching staff last week, they finally did the right thing and fed the best player on their roster the football. Bowers had 13 targets and finished with 11 receptions for 99 yards. Moving forward, the Saints don’t initially appear as a good matchup, ranking 24th in fantasy points allowed to TEs. However, if we dig a little deeper, we'll find that the Saints are allowing the 11th most points to the slot position. Guess who’s #1 in slot snaps for Las Vegas? Brock Bowers.
Jonnu Smith ($5,700)
Rinse and repeat. Smith was in this exact spot in last week’s column and again looks to be a good play in Week 17. He has double-digit targets in three of his last five games and plays a Browns defense that is allowing the 9th most fantasy points to TEs.
Payne Durham ($2,900)
Payne Durham is a dirt-cheap TE on a pass-happy Bucs offense facing a terrible Carolina Panthers defense. Teammate Cade Otton has yet to practice (as of Thursday) leaving the door wide open for Durham to succeed. Last week, Durham had 7 targets and finished 5 for 29, which is respectable for a sub-3k TE.
D/ST
Indianapolis Colts ($3,500)
It’s not a misprint—once again, I’m riding with the Colts' defense in Week 17. Despite the usual skepticism surrounding their squad, the Colts are positioned to make an impact. With Drew Lock starting at quarterback for the New York Giants, the Colts are facing a quarterback who has been prone to mistakes, which plays directly into the strengths of their defense. Also, they currently rank in the middle of the pack for pressure rating, and what stands out is their impressive 6th-place ranking in turnover rate.
According to Pro Football Reference, they force turnovers on 14% of opposing drives, which is a critical statistic for any defense. Additionally, adding to the intrigue is the fact that the Falcons—who sit 24th in pressure rate—were able to force 3 turnovers and record 3 sacks against Lock just last week. This performance suggests that the Colts’ defense could be primed for a big week, as they look to take advantage of Lock’s tendency to turn the ball over under pressure. With the right matchup and favorable conditions, Indianapolis could provide solid fantasy value in Week 17.
Dallas Cowboys ($2,500)
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts will probably miss this game (concussion). I know the Eagles' offensive line is good, but the Cowboy's defense is getting healthy and causing problems. The ‘Boys rank 1st in both pressure rate and hurry rate which should cause problems for Philly backup QB Kenny Pickett. The Cowboys also make for an interesting GPP play.
Favorite stacks:
1. Baker Mayfield + Mike Evans and/or Bucky Irving with Chuba Hubbard or Adam Thielen bring back. This game has plenty of plays to be unique. Most of the options are reasonably priced. You could even use Bryce Young if you’re feeling bold.
2. Sam Darnold + Justin Jefferson + Jordan Addison with a Josh Jacobs bringback. Two solid offenses in a division battle in a dome seems like the perfect recipe for a lot of fantasy points.
3. Jordan Love + Dontayvion Wicks + Jayden Reed with Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison bring back. I think the Packer's side is the sneaky side of this game to stack, as Wicks and Reed combined for 54 fantasy points in their last meeting with the Vikings. I also anticipate Josh Jacobs to be heavily rostered, making the Packers' passing stack an excellent leverage play.
4. Aidan O’Connell + Jakobi Meyers + Brock Bowers. This stack is for large field GPPs like the Milly maker or the free roll contests with unlimited entrants. If you use this stack, it leaves you with $32,200 left for your lineup or $5,367/player. Additionally, if you want to get weird, you could use a cheap TE in the FLEX and then play all the high-salary players.
GPP Plays:
Quarterback
For GPP recommendations, check out the Stack section of the article.
Running Back
Ameer Abdullah ($5,100)
Abdullah is coming off a 7-target game and plays a defense that ranks 30th in EPA/rush and 29th in rushing success rate. Oh, and did I mention that backups Sincere McCormick and Zamir White are both on IR? This is a risky play, but the payoff could be huge at such a cheap salary.
Travis Etienne ($5,300)
Seems like I’m just picking the worst RBs possible, however, there’s always a reason. Even though Etienne has been horrible, the Titans have been worse. Tennessee's defense ranks 32nd in EPA/rush and 26th in rushing success rate. It’s not pretty (invoke the play but don’t watch theory here) but Etienne has a chance to rebound at an astronomically low rostership rate.
Wide Receivers
Justin Jefferson/Jordan Addison ($8,300)/ ($6,300)
Talked about these two a bit in the stack section. A decent matchup in a dome setting (a LOT of rainy games this week) provides a perfect environment for scoring. At the moment, the Machine DFS Optimizer has Jefferson at 16.8% of rosters and Addison at 19.5%.
Mike Evans ($7,500)
Everyone is going to Tampa rookie WR Jalen McMillan this week, so I’m going with Mike Evans. He is still the alpha and earning the lion’s share of targets as opposed to McMillan who’s been getting by on hyper-efficiency. Additionally, McMillan has scored 3 TDs in his past two games which mathematically is unlikely to continue. Just to further emphasize my point, here are some stats comparing McMillans and Evans:
WOPR: 62%- Evans, 33%- McMillan
Target share: 22%- Evans, 12%- McMillan
Air yards share: 40% Evans, 20% McMillan
I rest my case.
Other options:
AJ Brown ($7,800)
I went back to see how many targets Eagles WR AJ Brown received from QB Kenny Pickett and I liked what I saw, as he received 12-13 targets. The public isn’t going to want to play AJ Brown, so this is a great spot for him in GPPs. Per the Machine DFS Optimizer, Brown is currently projected for a 3.8% rostership percentage and is a fantastic leverage play.
Tight Ends
I’m sticking with my cash TEs for GPPs this week.
D/ST
New Orleans Saints ($2,900)
I know I wrote up the Raiders as a stack. However, the bottom could fall out for the Las Vegas offense, as the only elite option they have is Bowers. Also, the Saints are one game removed from an 8-sack performance against a potent Commanders offense.
Bargain Bin (sub $5,000 players that can score over 10 fantasy points)
Spears smashed for 21.6 last week so that worked wonderfully. Lions' TE Sam LaPorta and Colt's WR Josh Downs also crushed the 10-point barrier last week. However, New England WR DeMario Douglass did not. However, batting .750 on those is pretty good.
TE TJ Hockenson ($4,500), WR Jalen McMillan ($4,600), WR Josh Downs ($4,800), TE Jake Ferguson ($3,700), TE Tucker Kraft ($3,900), TE Chig Okonkwo ($3,600), WR Michael Pittman ($4,700), Marques Valdez-Scantling ($4,200)
A big list this week but I like all these to a degree whether it’s the matchup or the recent uptick in targets. Also, with all the cheap TEs I’m leaning towards a double TE build this week. The cheap WRs could provide essentials with all the good RBs being expensive.
Have a great Week 17 of NFL DFS! Make sure to go to advancedsportslogic.com and checkout The Machine – DFS Lineup Optimizer
By Clayton Jones aka @FFPulse88 on Threads, BlueSky, and Underdog - use code FFPULSE88 for a one-time, 100% match up to $1000 on your 1st deposit!!
