Week 14 featured condensed scoring, with three teams surpassing 40 points, including two in the same game (LAR/BUF). The week highlighted how chalk plays can be beneficial (Guerendo) and disappointing (Barkley/Kamara). It was a tough week for high-priced RBs and Raiders TE Brock Bowers, who failed to meet expectations.
Time to take a quick look back then on to Week 15!
QB - Josh Allen- 54.88, Tua Tagovailoa- 26.54
RB - Isaac Guerendo- 26.8, Tyrone Tracy- 19.3, Kyren Williams- 23.7, Aaron Jones- 16.4
WR - Puka Nacua- 44.8, Ray-Ray McCloud- 17.1, Jaylen Waddle- 20.9, Adam Thielen- 22.2
TE - Jonnu Smith- 13.4, Cade Otton- 10
Before we start on Week 15, I’ll share my best-scoring GPP lineup.
QB - Tua Tagovailoa- 26.54
RB - De’Von Achane- 18.9
RB - Zach Charbonnet- 41.3
WR - Tyreek Hill- 31.1
WR - Brian Thomas Jr- 16.6
WR - Ray-Ray McCloud- 17.1
TE - Cade Otton- 10
FLEX - Jaxon Smith-Njigba- 19.6
D/ST - Bears- -1
I liked the core of this lineup, the Dolphins stack, and managed to min. Cash. Initially, I had Miami WR Jaylen Waddle in for Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill although with the news of CB Ahmad Gardener being ruled out, I switched Tyreek in for Waddle. Dolphins RB De’Von Achane performed fine, but I was hoping for more.
Seattle RB Zach Charbonnet performed well beyond my wildest expectations and is worth watching for future slates. Atlanta WR Ray-Ray McCloud was a perfect salary saver. I was also hoping for bigger games from Bucs TE Cade Otton and Jags WR Brian Thomas Jr, being that they both had good matchups. Sadly that did not transpire.
Seattle WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba was a nice pivot since I was behind in this tournament and he performed well. For me, I felt the QB position was a bit awkward this week. While I liked the middle-priced players like Bucs QB Baker Mayfield and Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa, the salary relief of Vikings QB Sam Darnold, Rams QB Matthew Stafford, and the 50+ point explosion from Bills QB Josh Allen doomed those plays.
The top-priced RBs all failed miserably versus the middle-tier players of Rams RB Kyren Williams, Falcons RB Bijan Robinson, and Arizona RB James Conner, who excelled. Also, I had Tampa WR Mike Evans in nearly every lineup and that backfired. Additionally, I was not in on Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, and he went HAM. I liked Rams WR Puka Nacua and should’ve used him in more lineups.
There were a lot of 5-6k WRs that were duds. Another spot that hurt me was TE, (more specifically Raiders TE Brock Bowers). Bowers had a great matchup against a terrible Bucs defense but was frequently subbed out on 3rd and 4th downs, and not on the field for some red zone plays. What can you expect from a terrible Raider's coaching staff? As a result, this Bowers stuff is worth keeping in mind for future slates, especially with Desmond Ridder taking over at QB (yuck).
Moving on to defense, I thought the Bears would be interesting with 49ers LT Trent Williams ruled out and I was wrong, very wrong.
Time to look at the data and get better for Week 15.
Week 15 DraftKings slate
Games to target:
1.MIA @ HOU – 47 O/U
Implied totals: MIA 22; HOU 25
2. BAL @ NYG – 43 O/U
Implied totals: CAR 17; PHI 29
3. NE @ ARI – 45.5 O/U
Implied totals: NE 20; ARI 25.5
4. BUF @ DET – 54.5 O/U
Implied totals: BUF- 26; LAR- 28.5
5. CIN @ TEN – 47
Implied totals: CIN- 26; TEN- 21
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterback
Josh Allen ($8,500)
Bills QB Josh Allen isn’t going to score 6 TDs every week but is still the main cog of the Bills' offense. The entire Lions defensive line is banged up, which would further Allen’s cause this week. In Week 14 Detroit allowed 3 TDs and should be in for more problems in Week 15.
Tua Tagovailoa ($6,100)
Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa has been balling lately, so much so that he’s scored 23+ fantasy points in four consecutive games. The Dolphins have climbed up to 12th in EPA/dropback and 13th in dropback success rate. Additionally, the Texans, Tua’s Week 15 opponent, appear as a bad matchup. However, those numbers are skewed. Here are some of the QBs the Texans have faced: the Bears' Caleb Williams, Jags' Trevor Lawrence, Patriots' Drake Maye, Jets' Aaron Rodgers, Cowboys' Cooper Rush, Titans' Will Levis, and Jags' backup Mac Jones. The pass rush is good but beatable.
Kyler Murray ($6,000)
Arizona QB Kyler Murray has been quiet the past three weeks, and it’s understandable, as having two matchups against an improving Seattle defense and one on the road against the Vikings defense will do that. However, in Week 15, Murray gets the opportunity to crank out fantasy points against a bad Patriots defense. New England's defense ranks 28th in EPA/play, 31st in EPA/dropback, and 29th in dropback success rate. Kyler also makes for a great GPP play this week.
Running Back
Rico Dowdle ($6,100)
Dallas RB Rico Dowdle has shown out these past three games, gaining 80+ yards rushing in each, including two games of 100+ yards. Dowdle also has 8 targets and 18+ rushing attempts over his past three games, so he is getting the work and not sharing. The second reason I like him this week is the matchup. It doesn’t matter how you chop up the data, the Panthers rush defense is awful. Carolina ranks 31st in EPA/rush and 32nd in rushing success rate. A great salary relief play combined with a strong workload and great matchup equates to a perfect cash play.
James Conner ($6,600)
Arizona RB James Conner returned to his fruitful fantasy ways and should carry that over to Week 15. The Cardinals' primary back has 18 targets over his last four weeks and ended his TD-less streak this past week. Additionally, Conner's snaps cranked up to 74.6%, his highest since Week 8. The Cardinals need to win, and he is the straw that stirs the drink.
Chubba Hubbard ($6,500)
Unfortunately, Carolina rookie RB Jonathan Brooks tore his ACL and is out for the rest of the year. However, for teammate Chubba Hubbard, it's a good thing, as he will going back to his workhorse role. Hubbard hit his 2nd-highest rushing attempts on the season in Week 14 and added 5 targets. Additionally, the Panthers rushing attack gets a great matchup against the Cowboys, who rank 32nd in both EPA/rush and rushing success rate.
Cash games will be greatly impacted by injury news much like Week 14. Keep an eye on the status of: Tampa RB Bucky Irving, Jets RB Breece Hall, Titans RB Tony Pollard, and Seattle RB Kenneth Walker.
Wide Receiver
Ladd McConkey ($6,300)
With the ground game still trying to find traction, Charger's WR Ladd McConkey should get plenty of work. He’s first on the team in air yards, target share, and WOPR. Additionally, McConkey has 21 targets over his last three games and gets an excellent opportunity against a terrible and banged-up Bucs defense. The Bucs rank 25th in EPA/dropback and 31st in dropback success rate.
Jerry Jeudy ($6,200)
Not including Broncos WR Jerry Jeudy at this point would be a serious malpractice, so here he is. Jeudy has double-digit targets in three of his last five games. Additionally, the Chief’s defense has faltered lately, allowing Raiders' TE Brock Bowers and WR Jakobi Meyers to torch them for 237 yards and 1 TD in Week 13. The Chiefs also allowed 263 yards to the Panthers WR core and 262 yards to the Bills. Even with the return of teammate Cedric Tillman, Jeudy should continue to shine and provide immense value for his salary.
Courtland Sutton ($6,600)
Denver WR Courtland Sutton has been a target monster in Denver. He currently ranks 1st in air yards share (42%), target share (25%), and WOPR, and no one else is close. Interestingly enough, since Week 11, the Colts (Sutton’s Week 15 opponent), rank 18th in EPA/dropback and 19th in dropback success rate. With the Denver backfield currently unreliable, Sutton will be essential for the Broncos to maintain their playoff hopes in this critical matchup.
Other options: Brian Thomas Jr. ($5,800), Jaylen Waddle ($5,700), Tyreek Hill ($7,400)
Tight End
David Njoku ($5,200)
Cleveland TE David Njoku’s numbers have been insane with Jameis Winston starting at QB, especially in his last two games. Njoku has a whopping 30 targets during that timespan, which he’s turned into 16 receptions for 94 yards and 3 TDs. And the goodness doesn’t stop there, as Njoku gets an incredible matchup against a slumping Chiefs defense, as they are allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to TEs.
Hunter Henry ($4,300)
New England TE Hunter Henry has been a staple for me in cash, as he hasn't been too expensive, and can consistently get 8-12 fantasy points. While he lacks the ceiling of higher-end options, he has the tradeoff of a solid floor. Additionally, Henry has 26 targets over his last three games, helping him score 9+ fantasy points during that same timeframe.
Zach Ertz ($4,000)
Washington TE Zach Ertz makes for another great value play at the TE position. He’s accumulated 21 targets over his last three games, which (similar to Henry) also gives him a strong floor. Additionally, Ertz has had a knack for the endzone lately with 3 TDs over his last three games.
D/ST
Dallas Cowboys ($2,800)
The Cowboys are (kind of) back, as they’ve ascended to 1st in pressure rate (28.5%) and 6th in blitz rate. On the other hand, they still rank 13th in EPA/dropback and 10th in dropback success rate. Even though the Panthers have been better offensively, they still rank 27th in EPA/play and 31st in EPA/dropback, meaning Dallas is due for a solid defensive game.
Favorite stacks:
1. Kyler Murray + Marvin Harrison Jr./Trey McBride and/or James Conner. I do not like any bringbacks on the Patriots side.
2. Tua Tagovailoa + Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle/Jonnu Smith and with a James Cook bring back. Kyren Williams is also an interesting piece if you want to get unique.
3. Jayden Daniels + Terry McLaurin and/or Zach Ertz. I’m not touching anyone on the Saints' side.
4. Lamar Jackson + Mark Andrews. I cannot endorse any Giants players as bringbacks.
With so many teams playing I think skinny stacks (QB+WR or QB+TE) are the way to go.
GPP Plays:
Quarterback
Jayden Daniels ($7,500)
Washington QB Jayden Daniels has been on fire lately, scoring over 60 fantasy points in his past two games, including 5 passing TDs and 2 rushing TDs. His dual-threat ability always makes him a great GPP option.
Bo Nix ($6,300)
There’s nothing statistically that stands out with Broncos' QB Bo Nix, however, the Denver rushing attack has been unreliable, and Nix has the dual-threat ability to crank out points. He’s passed for over 250 yards and thrown 7 passing TDs in his last three games.
Running Back
Brian Robinson Jr. ($6,200)
Washington RB Brian Robinson is dicey play being that he’s not involved in the passing game at all. However, he is capable of going over 100 rushing yards and punching in a TD and has accumulated 60+ rushing yards in four of his last five games to go with 3 TDs in that same span. Additionally, he has a great opportunity in Week 15 to improve on those numbers with a matchup against the Saints. The Saints sit 29th in EPA/rush and 30th in rushing success rate.
Rhamondre Stevenson ($5,900)
New England RB Rhamondre Stevenson is very risky, but the payoff could be worth it, as he draws a Cardinals defense that was just torched for 134 yards and 2 TDs in Week 14. The Patriots' offense has been bad, however, if they can get the run game going, Stevenson should thrive.
Wide Receiver
Garrett Wilson ($6,500)
Jets WR Garrett Wilson has 20 targets over his last two games, and still ranks 8th in WOPR and 7th in target share. Combine this with an awesome matchup against the Jaguars and you have a great GPP play. The Jaguars rank 32nd in EPA/dropback and 28th in dropback success rate.
Marvin Harrison Jr. ($5,500)
MHJ and QB Kyler Murray have yet to get in sync, but the Patriots might be the elixir they need. The Patriots are 31st in EPA/dropback and 29th in dropback success rate. The volume has been there for MHJ (20 targets over his last two games), and this could be the spot where the stars align.
Other options:
Brian Thomas Jr. ($5,800)
Jacksonville WR Brian Thomas continues to be the lone bright spot of the Jaguars offense. He’s earned 29 total targets over his last three games and continues to get chances downfield with an aDOT of 12.6 while ranking 9th in deep targets. While the Jets are not the best matchup, they do rank 20th in EPA/dropback.
Tight End
Trey McBride ($6,000)
Arizona TE Trey McBride has been a positive regression candidate all year, and at some point has to get in the endzone. McBride has 41 targets over his last three games and the Patriots' defense should provide little resistance.
D/ST
Miami Dolphins ($2,500)
The Texans are allowing pressure at the highest rate in the league at 27.2%, and that includes a bye week. The Dolphin’s defense is middling statistically, with a ranking of 15th in EPA/play and 16th in EPA/dropback. However, the Texans don’t have the offensive line talent to fix their ills.
Bargain Bin (sub $5,000 players that can score over 10 fantasy points)
Falcons WR Ray-Ray McCloud and Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet were awesome last week, time to find some more values for Week 15.
TE Hunter Henry ($4,300), TE Zach Ertz ($4,000), TE Mark Andrews ($4,100)
I don’t like any of the cheap WRs so it’s all TEs this week. Henry and Ertz are floor guys with Andrews being the lone upside play. I think all three of these players can easily beat the 10-point mark and give you some great value and savings.
Have a great Week 15 of NFL DFS! Make sure to go to advancedsportslogic.com and checkout The Machine – DFS Lineup Optimizer.
By Clayton Jones aka @FFPulse88 on Threads and BlueSky.
