Week 13 delivered plenty of scoring, though it came in bursts across just a few games. Who could have predicted the Steelers and Bengals would combine for 82 points (certainly not me), while the Rams and Saints managed only 35 points in a dome matchup? As we analyze the data, it feels like we're learning more, yet still grasping less from the results. Now, let's look at how my selections fared in Week 13.
QB - Anthony Richardson - 23.16
RB - Bucky Irving - 30.5, Joe Mixon - 24.9, Kyren Williams - 21.3, Johnathan Taylor - 17.3
WR - Ladd McConkey - 28.3, Brian Thomas Jr. - 18.7, Nico Collins - 22.9, Mike Evans - 28.8
TE - Trey McBride - 21.6, Dallas Goedert - 12.5
Before we start on Week 14, I’ll share my best-scoring GPP lineup:
QB - CJ Stroud - 14.38
RB - Jaylen Warren - 18.4
RB - Tony Pollard - 6.8
WR - AJ Brown - 9.1
WR - Nico Collins - 18.9
WR - Adonai Mitchell - 0
TE - Hunter Henry - 11
FLEX - Bucky Irving - 29
D/ST- Cardinals - 7
This lineup was a letdown and ultimately didn’t cash, with multiple disappointments. Stroud continued his underwhelming performance, managing just 14 points in what was supposed to be a prime matchup. This game was my last chance to trust him, but he failed to deliver. Pittsburgh OC Arthur Smith played his best "Lucy with the football" act with RB Jaylen Warren. Despite Warren out-snapping backfield mate Najee Harris in Week 12, he was reduced to just 7 touches compared to Harris' 22. Titans RB Tony Pollard was another major disappointment. Despite a favorable matchup, the Titans fumbled on back-to-back drives and failed to capitalize.
Meanwhile, the Commanders shredded the Titans' defense with four straight touchdown drives, forcing Tennessee to pass. Eagles WR AJ Brown was also a letdown, as the Eagles played a conservative game, leaning heavily on RB Saquon Barkley. On the other hand, Houston WR Nico Collins took advantage of a weak Jags secondary, although I had hoped for more. Colts WR Adonai Mitchell, a salary pivot from chalky Panthers WR David Moore, had his moments but did drop a long pass. Patriots TE Hunter Henry was a solid play, providing salary relief that allowed me to invest in AJ Brown and Nico Collins. After all that, my gold star play of the week was Tampa RB Bucky Irving, who also helped me in head-to-heads on Underdog. With teammate Rachaad White struggling as a runner, Irving has been gaining more traction in the passing game (though his upside is limited by the occasional random Sean Tucker touchdown). Finally, the Cardinals' defense has been on fire, racking up 10 sacks over their last two games. With the Vikings' offense struggling, they’re a unit worth targeting. Now, let’s look ahead to Week 14.
Week 14 DraftKings slate
Games to target:
1.ATL @ MIN – 45.5 O/U
Implied totals: ATL 20.25; MIN 25.25
2. CAR @ PHI – 46 O/U
Implied totals: CAR 17; PHI 29
3. LV @ TB – 45.5 O/U
Implied totals: LV 19.25; TB 26.25
4. BUF @ LAR – 49 O/U
Implied totals: BUF- 26.5; LAR- 22.5
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterbacks
Josh Allen ($8,000)
Bills QB Josh Allen has been insanely consistent this year. He has seven consecutive weeks scoring 20+ fantasy points, which I anticipate will extend to eight this week, despite The Rams' defense sitting 13th in blitz rate and 2nd in hurry rate. However, Allen’s rushing should counteract those numbers. The Rams' defense also ranks 24th in EPA/play, 23rd in EPA/dropback, and 26th in dropback success rate. In other words, Allen has the potential for a HUGE performance.
Baker Mayfield ($6,400)
Tampa QB Baker Mayfield came through late for the Bucs to get them to 6-6, but it was the Bucky Irving show. Fortunately, in Week 14, the Bucs should have to pass more as the Raiders have been tough to run against, ranking 15th in EPA/rush and 2nd in rushing success rate. Additionally, Las Vegas has been exploited via the air, sitting 23rd in EPA/play, 26th in EPA/dropback, and 24th in dropback success rate.
Tua Tagovailoa ($6,300)
Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa has been sneakily good over the past three weeks, scoring at least 23 fantasy points in each outing. He’s also thrown 9 TD passes and 280+ yards or more in that same timeframe. While the Jets aren’t the best matchup, they are a team that’s on the verge of total collapse after a horrific beatdown last week.
Running Back
Saquon Barkley ($9,000)
If Tampa's RB Bucky Irving can carve the Panthers up for 152 yards and 1 TD, imagine what Philly RB Saquon Barkley is going to do. Simply put, Barkley has been crushing this season, both fantasy-wise and statistically. He ranks 7th in opportunity share, 2nd in red zone touches, 11th in fantasy points/opportunity, and 1st in fantasy points/game. The Panthers rank 31st in EPA/rush and 32nd in rushing success rate.
Tyrone Tracy ($5,800)
Giants RB Tyrone Tracy cleaned up his fumbling issues last week and was rewarded with 71% of the snaps on offense. Hopefully, he can hold on to the rock and take advantage of a great upcoming matchup, as the Saints have been getting torched on the ground, ranking 30th in EPA/rush and 31st in rushing success rate.
Isaac Guerendo ($5,400)
San Fran RB Isaac Guerendo is the next man up in their backfield and draws an excellent matchup. The Bears have been limiting opponents through the air, however, lately, they have struggled against rushing attacks. They rank 22nd in EPA/rush and 18th in rushing success rate. I expect a heavy dose of Guerendo with both RBs CMC and Jordan Mason out.
Just looking at the landscape this week, it seems like another 3 RB week in both cash and GPPs.
Wide Receiver
Keenan Allen ($5,600)
Bears WR Keenan Allen has received the post-Shane Waldron bump, as he has 31 targets over the past three weeks. Allen has worked his way to 1st in WOPR on the Bears while tying teammate DJ Moore for 1st in team target share at 25%. He also leads the team targets/routes run at 24.2%.
Calvin Ridley ($5,700)/Nick Westbrook-Ikhine ($4,700)
Using the Titans’ passing game is dangerous, and yet the upcoming matchup is too good to pass up. The Jags rank 32nd in EPA/play, EPA/dropback, and dropback success rate. Don’t be fooled by the Titans' ineptitude on offense last week. The reality is that QB Will Levis can sling it and I expect him to utilize both Ridley and Westbrook-Ihkine often. These two receivers also provide excellent salary relief.
Mike Evans ($7,200)
Tampa Bay WR Mike Evans had 12 targets last week in a great matchup and gets another good draw this week against the Las Vegas Raiders. Evans leads the Bucs in all receiving aspects, so much so that he is at a 60% WOPR, 21% target share, and has 41% of the team’s air yards. The Raiders sit 22nd in EPA/play, and 27th in EPA/dropback success rate. Fire Evans up in both GPPs and cash.
Tight End
Brock Bowers ($6,500)
Las Vegas TE Brock Bowers might eclipse his highest fantasy point total of the season in his Week 14 matchup, as the Bucs are struggling mightily against air attacks. They currently sit 26th in EPA/play, 29th in EPA/dropback, and 31st in dropback success rate. Also, the Bucs rank 7th in fantasy points allowed to TEs.
Trey McBride ($6,100)
Arizona TE Trey McBride has three 20+ fantasy point games in his last five games to go with 24 targets over his last two games. With the running game struggling, McBride has been the engine of the Cardinals' offense, and I expect that to continue in Week 14, as he torched this same Seattle defense to the tune of 12 receptions for 133 yards earlier in the year.
Jonnu Smith ($5,300)
Miami TE Jonnu Smith has 30 targets over his last three games and is cooking. Even though the Jets are a bad matchup statistically, I’m trusting the volume here.
D/ST
Arizona Cardinals ($3,400)
The Cardinals have been racking up sacks lately. So much so, that they’ve accumulated 19 over their last four, nearly 5 sacks/game.
Favorite stacks:
1. Baker Mayfield + Mike Evans with a Jakobi Meyers or Brock Bowers bring back. If you want to push this game, using Cade Otton in combination with Mayfield and Evans works.
2. Matthew Stafford + Puka Nacua with a James Cook bringback. Kyren Williams is also an interesting piece if you want to get unique.
3. Tua Tagovailoa + Jaylen Waddle and/or De’Von Achane and/or Jonnu Smith. There are several different ways to go with this stack, I like the Tua/Waddle/Achane combo the best.
4. Aidan O’Connell + Jakobi Meyers and/or Brock Bowers. This Bucs vs. Raiders game has plenty of good fantasy plays making it easy to be unique.
5. Jalen Hurts + AJ Brown with an Adam Thielen bringback. I anticipate the Eagles' passing game being low-rostered, especially with their low performance in Week 13.
GPP Plays:
Quarterbacks
Aidan O’Connell ($6,300)
The Bucs' defense has been awful, so much so that they made Carolina QB Bryce Young look competent. They rank 27th in EPA/play, 29th in EPA/dropback, and 32nd in dropback success rate. Raiders QB Aidan O’Connell has the weapons to put up numbers and his salary relief can help bolster other roster spots.
Jalen Hurts ($7,800)
Philly RB Saquon Barkley is going to be heavy chalk so naturally, QB Jalen Hurts is strong leverage against him. The Eagles were conservative on the road in a hostile environment in Week 13. However, Week 14 should be the opposite, as the Panthers' defense ranks 30th in EPA/dropback and 29th in dropback success rate.
Running Back
Aaron Jones ($6,500)
Vikings RB Aaron Jones had a bad outing in Week 13 due to self-inflicted wounds, most notably two fumbles. However, Week 14 provides an opportunity to turn things around. Backup RB Cam Akers is inefficient, and no other RB on this team has shown they can be as good as Jones. Additionally, the team draws a good matchup against a bad Falcons defense. The Falcons rank 18th in EPA/rush and 29th in rushing success rate, paving the way for a potentially good day.
Kyren Williams ($7,300)
Rams RB Kyren Williams got back on track last week in a great matchup and draws another good upcoming one against the 49ers in Week 14. San Fran ranks 28th in both EPA/rush and rushing success rates. The only concern here is Williams’ snaps, as his snap rate has dropped to a season-low 67.3%. That being said, I trust him to get the job done at his lower salary cost.
Other Options:
James Cook ($7,400)
Bills RB James Cook dominated in a snowy Week 13 SNF showdown against the 49ers and has another plus matchup against the LA Rams in Week 14, as the Rams rank 24th in EPA/rush and 20th in rushing success rate. While Cook’s snap share did dip to 46.4%, that was related to the Bills' domination of the 49ers as well as the team giving more reps to some of the backups.
Wide Receivers
AJ Brown ($8,100)
Eagles WR AJ Brown burned me last week and yet again, I’m going back to him in Week 14, as he still ranks 1st in both WOPR and air yards and 2nd in target share. This is also a direct leverage play on Saquon Barkley as well.
Puka Nacua ($7,700)
Rams WR Puka Nacua has been accumulating targets since getting healthy, and he’s racked up 44 over his last four games. I expect that to continue in a potentially high-scoring affair in Week 14, as Puka has climbed to the top 25 in WOPR and 14th in target share, resulting in him scoring 17+ fantasy points during that timespan.
Other options:
Jakobi Meyers ($5,600)
Even though Las Vegas WR Jakobi Meyers is playing second fiddle to stud rookie TE Brock Bowers, Meyers still has 26 targets over his last two games and double-digit targets in three of his last four games. He is a nice relief play and honestly, can work in cash lineups.
Jaylen Waddle ($5,400)
Miami WR Jaylen Waddle has been quiet most of the season and yet, is a great game theory play this week. He should be able to cause problems for the Jets with CB “Sauce” Gardener tussling with WR Tyreek Hill. Only two weeks ago Waddle put up an 8/144/4 line, and this seems like a spot where he could reproduce that.
Tight Ends
Cade Otton ($4,400)
Tampa TE Cade Otton had 7 targets last week, a nice rebound from his previous 3 target performance in Week 12. He once again draws another great matchup against the Raiders in Week 14, as the Raiders are allowing the 2nd-most fantasy points to TEs on the year.
D/ST
Minnesota Vikings ($3,400)
Even though the Falcons have weapons, QB Kirk Cousins has been mostly a disaster. Cousins only has two 20+ fantasy point performances (both against the Bucs). The Vikings sit 4th in defensive pressure rate at 27%, which should pair well with Kirk's turnover-prone ways. Additionally, he has fumbled at least once in 6 straight games while throwing 6 INTs in his last three.
Bargain Bin (sub $5,000 players that can score over 10 fantasy points)
Sadly, only Kansas City WR Marques Valdez-Scantling and New England TE Hunter Henry hit the 10-point threshold last week.
Time to re-group for Week 14.
TE TJ Hockenson ($4,300), WR Nick Westbrook-Ihkine ($4,700), WR Ray-Ray McCloud ($4,500), TE Dalton Kincaid (Questionable with knee injury, Limited practice Thursday) ($4,900), RB Zach Charbonnet (if Kenneth Walker misses) ($4,800)
**late add RB Braelon Allen ($5,000) - RB Breece Hall was just ruled doubtful for Sunday against Miami, he’s an easy jam in cash and GPPs.
There aren't as many cheap options this week as last, but these players offer great value and can help you free up cap space for other roster spots. Hockenson faces a Falcons defense ranked 11th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends, making him a solid play. I'm cautiously optimistic about Westbrook-Ikhine this week, as he has the potential to exploit a weak Jaguars secondary. Ray-Ray McCloud has become a reliable outlet for Cousins and will be crucial against the blitz-heavy Vikings defense. If he's healthy, Kincaid has a favorable matchup against a Rams defense giving up the 6th most fantasy points to tight ends.
Have a great Week 14 of NFL DFS! Make sure to go to advancedsportslogic.com and check out The Machine – DFS Lineup Optimizer.
By Clayton Jones aka @FFPulse88 on Threads and BlueSky.
