Week 12 was a good week for me. I got back on track with scoring big numbers and back to winning money. It included a 43-point affair in a snowy Cleveland game, and seven teams scored 30+ points, with the Broncos cranking out 29 points. So, the scoring has returned! You know the drill: It's time to flashback and see how I performed.
QB - Bo Nix- 19.4, Tua Tagovailoa- 31.48, Patrick Mahomes- 28.76
RB- Bucky Irving- 27.1, DeVon Achane- 20.6, Jahmyr Gibbs- 24.9
WR- Courtland Sutton- 29.7, Jaxon Smith-Njigba- 19.7, DeMario Douglas- 11.3 (Bargain bin)
TE- Jonnu Smith- 23.7 (Bargain bin), Zach Ertz- 15.8 (Bargain bin)
Before we begin Week 13, I’ll share my best-scoring GPP lineup.
QB- Tua Tagovailoa- 28.48
RB- DeVon Achane- 19.1
RB- Kareem Hunt- 10.2
WR- Rome Odunze- 6.4
WR- Tyreek Hill- 7.3
WR- Courtland Sutton- 25.7
TE- Luke Schoonmaker- 13
FLEX- Jaxon Smith-Njigba- 16.7
D/ST- Cowboys- 22
This lineup did cash in and finished 217th out of 67,179, not too shabby. The Miami stack felt good as it was one of my favorite stacks of the week (so were the Cardinals, woof). Somehow, Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt flopped against one of the worst defenses in the NFL. I was on the right track with the Bears' WR Rome Odunze's play, he did have 8 targets, but unfortunately only caught 3. With the change in offensive coordinators, the Bears WR core is suddenly fantasy-viable. Broncos WR Courtland Sutton is entering lock-button status with his strong workload, hopefully his salary continues to stay low. This lineup was one of the few I did not play Chiefs TE Travis Kelce (knee pain) and I’m glad I didn’t. Dallas TE Luke Schoonmaker is getting work and Cowboys QB Cooper Rush is chucking the rock (80+ passing attempts through two games). Seattle's JSN is also a player (much like Courtland Sutton), I frequently want to use. I did not expect the Cowboys' defense to perform THAT well, and honestly, it was luck but also a great game theory play with everyone on the Commanders' offense. Overall, I was happy with how this lineup performed outside of a few disappointing performances, as the process was right.
Week 13 DraftKings slate
Games to target:
1. PHI @ BAL – 50.5 O/U
Implied totals: PHI 23.75; BAL 26.75
2. LAR @ NO – 49.5 O/U
Implied totals: LAR 29; NO 23.5
3. ARI @ MIN – 44 O/U
Implied totals: ARI 20.75; MIN 23.25
4. HOU @ JAX – 44 O/U
Implied totals: HOU- 23.75; JAX- 20.25
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterbacks
Matthew Stafford ($5,800)
Rams QB Matthew Stafford plays as a cash option in Week 13. He has 6 TD passes in his last two games and that correlates with the Rams struggling to run the ball and the defense getting torched. The Rams have dropped to 19th in EPA/rush while the defense has allowed 65 points over their last two games. Stafford provides a cheap option to jam in studs at other positions.
Baker Mayfield ($6,600)
Tampa RB Bucky Irving has derailed the Bucs passing offense a bit with his success but the numbers don’t lie. Carolina’s defense is bad, as they rank 31st in EPA/play and EPA/dropback and 30th in dropback success rate. Even the Chiefs offense looked competent against this well-rested Carolina defense in Week 12.
Jalen Hurts ($7,700)
Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has been sub-par fantasy-wise the past two weeks, mustering only 23 total points. However, a new week presents a new opportunity. The Raven's defense is still having issues in the passing game, ranking 20th in EPA/play, 28th in EPA/dropback, and 18th in dropback success rate. Let’s also keep in mind that Baltimore has been stifling rushing attacks, ranking 2nd in both EPA/rush and rushing success rates.
Running Back
Bucky Irving ($5,800)
Copy and paste from Week 12, I’m going back to Tampa RB Bucky Irving, as he is a lock-button for me this week. As I mentioned in Week 12, Irving has had both success on the ground and through the air. He had 6 receptions in Week 12, doubling up his 3 reception effort in Week 10. Bucky has earned more work, and I expect him to be a workhorse against a pitiful Carolina defense. For reference, Carolina ranks 31st in EPA/rush and 32nd in rushing success rate.
Joe Mixon (8,000)
Houston RB Joe Mixon was shut down in Week 12 by a tough Titans run defense. So much so that Mixon failed to reach 20 offensive touches for the first time in 5 weeks. Alas, hope springs eternal. In Week 13, Mixon gets the elixir that is the Jaguars run defense, a defense that sits 20th in EPA/rush and 19th in rushing success rate.
Tony Pollard ($6,300)
Titans RB Tony Pollard had a stellar day in Week 12, going for 100+ rushing yards, 1 TD, and earning 5 targets. He converted those lovely stats into 24.9 fantasy points. Pollard should have another strong day incoming with a date against the Commander's rush defense. The Commanders sit 28th in EPA/rush and 26th in rushing success rate. Expect another big day from him in Week 13.
Other options:
Gus Edwards ($4,300)
Chargers RB J.K. Dobbins is out with a knee injury, making backup RB Gus Edwards the free space this week in DFS. The Falcons rank 21st in EPA/rush and 30th in rushing success rate. Edwards should get plenty of opportunities with the Chargers ranking 7th in rushing rate at 49.7%.
Wide Receiver
Nico Collins ($7,900)
Texans WR Nico Collins hung up 20 fantasy points against a stingy Titans defense in Week 12 and gets a cakewalk in Week 13 with the Jaguars. The Jags are sitting 32nd in EPA/play, EPA/dropback, and dropback success rate. With the Jags also ranking 31st in defensive pressure rate, Texans QB CJ Stroud should have plenty of time to find Collins deep.
David Moore ($3,500)
Panthers WR David Moore is a combination of opportunity and matchup. He earned 10 targets last week against a stingy Chiefs defense and now gets a pushover in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers secondary. The Bucs rank 28th in EPA/play, 29th in EPA/dropback, and 31st in dropback success rate. The numbers are all there, but the question is if Panthers QB Bryce Young can deliver the football accurately.
AJ Brown ($8,300)
Eagles WR AJ Brown continues to dominate statistically, tied for 1st in WOPR, 2nd in target share (34%) and 1st in air yards share at 51%. The Ravens have been stout against the run but vulnerable through the air, ranking 28th in EPA/dropback. Brown’s freakish size/speed combination will be too much for Baltimore to deal with and I’m expecting a big game in Week 13.
Other options:
Puka Nacua ($7,600)
Rams WR Puka Nacua has 36 targets over his last three games and is QB Matthew Stafford’s favorite target. He sits 5th in fantasy points per route, 4th in yards per route run and 1st in targets per route run at 34.6%. I like Puka a lot this week.
Michael Pittman ($5,200)
Colts WR Michael Pittman has 15 targets over his last two games, and teammate Josh Downs has been ruled out. Pittman won’t garner the big plays, but he can work underneath and accumulate strong numbers against a suspect secondary in the Patriots. The Patriots are 29th in EPA/play, 30th in EPA/dropback, and 28th in dropback success rate.
Tight End
Cade Otton ($4,500)
Bucs TE Cade Otton has struggled his past two games and based on the data it makes sense. Otton played the Giants and 49ers in consecutive games and only managed 12.5 fantasy points over those two contests. For reference, the Giants rank 32nd in fantasy points allowed to TEs and the 49ers sit 28th. However, Week 13 allows for an easier opportunity for Otton, as the Panthers have allowed the most fantasy points to TEs. As a result, Otton should give you a good bang for your buck in Week 13.
TJ Hockenson ($4,400)
Aside from a bad outing against a tough Titans defense, Vikings TE TJ Hockenson has been good lately. Specifically, he had a 15.2-point performance in Week 10 and a 21.4-point performance in Week 12. Coincidentally, Hockenson had 15 targets between those two games.
D/ST
Tennessee Titans ($2,400)
The Commanders' offense has looked bad lately, outside of a late TD pass to WR Terry McLaurin against the Cowboys in Week 12. The Titans have allowed the 2nd-fewest total yards on the season and have limited passing offenses to a league-best 1,866 passing yards.
Favorite stacks:
1. Jalen Hurts + AJ Brown. There are many options to use for a bring-back on the Raven's side (Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman).
2. Matthew Stafford + Puka Nacua and/or Cooper Kupp. Saints TE Taysom Hill is a great bring-back option as well as RB Alvin Kamara.
3. CJ Stroud + Nico Collins and/or Joe Mixon. I like over-stacking in GPPs this week. Jags WR Brian Thomas Jr. is the only bring-back I like for the Jaguars.
4. Baker Mayfield + Mike Evans and/or Cade Otton or Bucky Irving. This Bucs/Panthers game is another spot I like for over-stacking for GPPs. Panthers WR David Moore is an intriguing, cheap bring-back.
I think I’m going to avoid big-game stacks this week and stick more towards skinny stacks or onslaught stacks. Squeezing in players on opposing teams just for correlation’s sake has been sub-optimal this season.
GPP Plays:
Quarterbacks
CJ Stroud ($6,400)
Texans QB CJ Stroud has only two 20+ fantasy point performances this season, a significantly stark contrast from 2023. However, there are two reasons I like Stroud this week. First, the Jaguar's defense ranks 31st in pressure rate, meaning he will have all day to throw. The second reason is that I believe RB Joe Mixon will be chalk even though he is expensive, and no one wants to use Stroud.
Anthony Richardson ($5,500)
Just because you roster a player doesn’t mean you have to watch. Such is the case with using Colts QB Anthony Richardson this week even though has insane rushing upside and an optimal matchup. The Patriots' defense sits 29th in EPA/play, 30th in EPA/dropback, and 28th in dropback success rate. Although Colts WR Josh Downs is out, Richardson still has deep threats Alec Pierce and Adonai Mitchell.
Running Back
Kyren Williams ($7,200)
Rams RB Kyren Williams gets priced down after a few bad games. However, he lands in a soft matchup for Week 13. The Saints' run defense has dropped to 29th in both EPA/rush and rushing success rate. Williams has rushed for 158 yards over his last two games, the problem has been that he hasn’t recorded a reception.
Jonathan Taylor ($6,900)
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor has been awful lately, as he has scored under 10 fantasy points in three of his last four games. However, a Week 13 matchup against the Patriots brings renewed hope, as the Patriots have consistently stayed at 17th in both EPA/rush and rushing success rates. They have also allowed 100+ yards rushing in two of their last four games. As a result, this might be the week Taylor breaks out of his slump.
Other Options:
Jaylen Warren ($5,500)
Steelers RB Jaylen Warren is an interesting GPP play. He had a season-high amount of targets at 5 last week as well as double-digit carries. Warren also draws my interest since he out-snapped inefficient teammate Najee Harris 56.7% to 40.3%. Additionally, he cruises into a cakewalk that is the Bengals' defense. Cincinnati is being clobbered in the ground game, ranking 30th in EPA/rush and 31st in rushing success rate.
Wide Receivers
Ladd McConkey ($6,100)
Chargers WR Ladd McConkey leads the team in WOPR and target share, which should bode well for him in Week 13. The Chargers could struggle to run the ball with Gus Edwards, Hassan Haskins, and Kimani Vidal, leaving the passing game to pick up the slack. Fortunately, the Falcons' defense is allowing opposing passing attacks to do as they please, ranking 24th in EPA/play and 26th in EPA/dropback.
Brian Thomas Jr ($5,500)
Jags WR Brian Thomas Jr. has been one of the few bright spots for the team in 2024. If the Texans take advantage of the terrible Jaguars defense, Thomas will have to be involved just to keep pace. He’s currently 2nd in WOPR on the team and tied for 1st in target share at 19%. Additionally, he had 7 total targets last week as well as being 2nd in team red zone targets.
Other options:
George Pickens ($6,800), Zay Flowers ($6,200), Alec Pierce ($4,900), Jordan Addison ($5,300)
Tight Ends
Trey McBride ($5,800)
Arizona TE Trey McBride has been smashing without TDs, which is fascinating considering most TEs make their living off hitting pay dirt. Interestingly enough, McBride leads all TEs in WOPR and is tied for 1st in target share at 27%, and this is a play that I’m using despite the matchup. The Vikings' defense has been stellar statistically but I think McBride can have a good day against them.
Dallas Goedert ($4,300)
In contrast to my last recommendation, this is strictly a numbers play. The Ravens are allowing the 10th most fantasy points to TEs, an area Eagles TE Dallas Goedert can exploit, as he has 10 targets over his past two games.
D/ST
Arizona Cardinals ($2,500)
Even though Vikings QB Sam Darnold has rebounded with strong performances in his past two weeks, the Vikings are allowing defensive pressure at the 3rd highest rate in the league at 26.5%. The Cardinals have shut opposing offenses down lately, allowing 31 points total over their past three games.
Bargain Bin (sub $5,000 players that can score over 10 fantasy points)
Miami TE Jonnu Smith and Washington TE Zach Ertz excelled as bargain bin plays.
Time to hunt for some Week 13 bargains:
RB Gus Edwards ($4,300), TE TJ Hockenson ($4,400), TE Hunter Henry ($4,200), TE Cade Otton ($4,500), WR David Moore ($3,500), WR Rashod Bateman ($4,500), Marques Valdes-Scantling ($4,400)
Pretty big group this week but I like all these plays. If you are looking to stack up expensive players, these bargains can make a difference in your lineup by providing some bang for your buck while not costing too much in projections.
Have a great Week 13 of NFL DFS! Make sure to go to advancedsportslogic.com and checkout The Machine – DFS Lineup Optimizer
By Clayton Jones aka @FFPulse88 on Threads.
