Week 10 has come and gone, leaving everyone wondering where the scoring went. A crazy eight games on the slate hit the under, with injuries and inconsistent quarterback play contributing to the lack of offense. However, the biggest issue, at least for me, was the Vikings' ineptitude. Let's take a quick look back at Week 10.
QB - Josh Allen - 20.2, Jalen Hurts - 31.68, Drake Maye - 18.74
RB - James Conner - 22.3, Rachaad White - 19, Bijan Robinson - 32.4,
WR- Darnell Mooney - 14.6
TE - George Kittle - 14.7, Trey McBride - 11.1
Before we start on Week 11, I’ll share my best-scoring GPP lineup:
QB - Sam Darnold - 9.44
RB - Austin Ekeler - 17.6
RB - Rachaad White - 16
WR - Noah Brown - 4.8
WR - Deebo Samuel - 10.1
WR - Jameson Williams - 6.8
TE - George Kittle - 13.2
FLEX - James Conner - 19.8
D/ST - Commanders - 6
This lineup didn’t cash, and for some strange reason, it did not correlate well. I had both Deebo and Kittle rostered but failed to roster Brock Purdy. Instead, I used Sam Darnold with zero stacks. The Austin Ekeler play worked well and the Rachaad White bring-back in the San Fran/Tampa Bay game was smart. Noah Brown was a play against a Steelers defense that struggles against the slot WR position, and the Jameson Williams pick was a good matchup against the Texans. James Conner was a strong play and made a lot of sense.
Week 11 DraftKings slate
Games to target:
1. JAX @ DET – 48 O/U
Implied totals: JAX 17.5; DET 30.5
2. KC @ BUF – 45.5 O/U
Implied totals: KC 21.5; BUF 24
3. SEA @ SF – 49.5 O/U
Implied totals: SEA 21.5; SF 28
4. LV @ MIA – 44.5 O/U
Implied totals: LV- 18.5; MIA- 26
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterbacks
Brock Purdy ($6,600)
San Fran QB Brock Purdy is putting in fantasy work week in and week out for the 49ers. He has four consecutive weeks of 20+ fantasy points and draws a wonderful matchup in Week 11 against the Seahawks. Seattle's defense sits 20th in EPA/play, 20th in EPA/dropback, and 17th in dropback success rate. With CMC still ramping up his workload, the 49ers should continue to rely on Purdy to move the ball down the field offensively.
Matthew Stafford ($5,800)
Rams QB Matthew Stafford isn’t the best option in DFS. However, we are working with a limited slate. Matchup-wise you couldn’t ask for a better one with the Patriot's defense ranking 28th in EPA/play, 28th in EPA/dropback, and 26th in dropback success rate.
Running Back
Kenneth Walker ($7,000)
Seattle RB Kenneth Walker has cooled off after his hot start, scoring just 22.2 fantasy points over his last two games. Additionally, Walker has 8 targets over those same two games and had 25 carries in Week 9. Thankfully he gets a great matchup against the 49ers defense, who rank 23rd in EPA/rush and 22nd in rushing success rate. I expect Walker to get back to his 20+ fantasy point reign in Week 11.
Audric Estime ($4,500)
With all the expensive salaries this week, relief is needed and has arrived in the form of Broncos RB Audric Estime. Estime out-carried teammate Javonte Williams 14-1 in Week 10, which correlated with coach Sean Payton expressing his desire to feed the rookie RB. Furthering Estime’s cause this week is his matchup against the Atlanta Falcons, as the Blackbirds rank 19th in EPA/rush and 28th in rushing success rate.
Jonathan Taylor ($7,600)
Colts RB Jonathan Taylor continues to get a heavy workload since coming back from his injury. He has 54 carries over his last three games while accumulating 267 yards during that same timeframe. As a bonus, he's also recently become more involved in the team's passing game, amassing 9 targets over his past two games.
Other options:
Kareem Hunt ($6,700)
The Bills have allowed the second-most fantasy points to running backs, including 100+ yard games from Colts RB Jonathan Taylor and the Miami RB duo of DeVon Achane & Raheem Mostert in back-to-back weeks. Additionally, another reason to like Chiefs RB Kareem Hunt is his growing workload, obtaining season highs in snaps (66%), rushing share (88%), and target share (22%) in Week 10.
Kyren Williams ($7,900)
Rams RB Kyren Williams has struggled the past two weeks, combining for only 22.7 fantasy points. In Week 11, he gets a chance to get back on track with a matchup against a struggling Patriots defense, as New England ranks 19th in EPA/rush and 18th in rushing success rate.
Wide Receiver
Puka Nacua ($7,300)
Rams WR Puka Nacua is a great value this week. He commanded 14 targets in Week 10 and gets a phenomenal matchup in Week 11 against the Patriots. He hit a season-high target share of 30% and air yards share of 40% in Week 10.
George Pickens ($7,000)
Steelers WR George Pickens has 14 receptions over his past three weeks and ranks 4th in WOPR, 5th in air yards share, and 10th in target share among all WRs. His Week 11 opponent, the Baltimore Ravens, are still struggling defensively. They rank 27th in EPA/play, 30th in EPA/dropback, and 23rd in dropback success rate.
Tight End
Hunter Henry ($3,900)
New England TE Hunter Henry bottomed out in Week 10 against a tough Bears defense, but gets an improved matchup against the Rams in Week 11, as the Rams are allowing the 8th most fantasy points to TEs.
D/ST
Denver Broncos ($2,900)
The Broncos get to take on the Falcons and QB Kirk Cousins, who has turned into a pumpkin since the 28.64 fantasy point explosion against the Bucs. Since that game Cousins has 6 fumbles and 3 INTs.
Favorite stacks:
1. Matthew Stafford + Puka Nacua and/or Cooper Kupp or Kyren Williams. You could use Hunter Henry as a bringback if you want to get unique.
2. Tua Tagovailoa + Tyreek Hill/Jaylen Waddle/DeVon Achane and/or Jakobi Meyers bring back. Onslaught stacking in this game is a great way to get unique for large-field GPPs.
3. Drake Maye + Kayshon Boutte or DeMario Douglas with Puka Nacua/Cooper Kupp/Kyren Williams bring back. I’m leaning towards this game a lot in GPPs.
GPP Plays:
Quarterbacks
Drake Maye ($5,600)
New England QB Drake Maye struggled against a tough Bears defense in Week 10 and now gets a weak Rams defense for Week 11. In the three games he’s started, Maye has scored 18+ fantasy points.
Russell Wilson ($5,900)
Pittsburgh QB Russell Wilson produced 19+ fantasy points in Weeks 8 & 10 and gets a wonderful matchup against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 11. The Raven's defense sits 27th in EPA/play, 30th in EPA/dropback, and 23rd in dropback success rate.
Running Back
Josh Jacobs ($7,500)
This is a strong contrarian play, as the Bills are allowing the 2nd most fantasy points to the RB position. Green Bay RB Josh Jacobs should have a low roster percentage, making this an interesting spot to play him in GPPs.
Christian McCaffrey ($8,300)
San Fran RB Christian McCaffrey had 13 rushes and 7 targets in his first game back in action and similar to a shiny new toy, HC Kyle Shanahan couldn’t wait to use him. Furthering CMC’s cause is his plus matchup against the Seahawks. Seattle ranks 22nd in EPA/rush and 23rd in rushing success rate, so expect an increase in usage in Week 11. CMC is also a strong cash play in Week 11.
Other Options:
DeVon Achane ($7,200)
The Raider's defense sits 21st in EPA/rush and 20th in success rate. Miami RB DeVon Achane has 34 rushes and 21 targets over his last three games, and his volume will continue regardless of who the QB is for the Dolphins.
Wide Receivers
Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,500)
Seattle WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba has three games with 10+ targets on the season and with teammate DK Metcalf still on the mend, should have ample volume to crank out fantasy points. The 49ers and Seahawks game has the highest over/under on the week at 49.5 points.
Calvin Ridley ($6,200)
Titans WR Calvin Ridley currently sits 10th in WOPR and 4th in air yards share, and although his QB play is sketchy there’s no other player on the roster earning targets. Ridley should have success against a Vikings defense that is suddenly struggling, as evidenced by the fact they've allowed the 3rd most points to the WR position as well as the most fantasy points to slot WRs. Additionally, Ridley has been playing 21.1% of his snaps from the slot, meaning he should feast on the mediocre Minnesota secondary.
Other options:
Courtland Sutton ($5,900)
Denver QB Bo Nix and WR Courtland Sutton have been getting in sync lately as shown by Sutton’s 30 targets over his last three games. Also, Sutton has climbed up to 15th in WOPR and 13th in air yards share among WRs. Additionally, the Denver passing game should maintain its current pace with a matchup against the Falcons in Week 11. Atlanta's defense ranks 22nd in EPA/play, 25th in success rate, and 23rd in EPA/dropback.
Cedric Tillman ($5,300)/Elijah Moore ($4,300)
Time to get back on the Cleveland WR bandwagon with a good matchup against the Saints in Week 11. The Saints' defense ranks 17th in EPA/play and 23rd in success rate. Browns WR Elijah Moore especially piques my interest being that the Saints are allowing the 3rd most fantasy points to the slot position. Moore is currently working out of the slot on 61.6% of his snaps.
Tight Ends
Tucker Kraft ($4,400)
Green Bay TE Tucker Kraft is one of several options on an efficient offense that rates out as 12th in EPA/play, 9th in EPA/dropback, and 15th in dropback success rate. Individually, Kraft is 4th in target share and 5th in WOPR among Packers wideouts. The Bears have allowed the 15th most points to the TE position, meaning the matchup isn’t the best. However, I still like the play.
T.J. Hockenson ($4,700)
Vikings TE T.J. Hockenson doubled his target share from 13% in Week 9 to 26% in Week 10 while maintaining 45%+ of the offensive snaps. QB Sam Darnold seems to be seeing ghosts again, and having a steady check-down option in Hockenson should aid him.
D/ST
Los Angeles Rams ($3,200)
The Rams' defense isn’t great, however, they are very good at creating pressure. They currently rank 3rd in defensive pressure rate at 28.4%, which should cause problems for New England QB Drake Maye, as the Patriots offense is allowing defensive pressure at a 27.9% rate.
Miami Dolphins ($3,000)
The Dolphins' defense should capitalize against a Raiders offense that is allowing pressure at the 5th highest rate (26%) on the year. Although Miami ranks 15th in defensive pressure rate, the Raiders' offensive ineptitude should be exposed. In fact, the Raiders rank 32nd in EPA/play, 27th in success rate, and 28th in EPA/dropback.
Bargain Bin (sub $5,000 players that can score over 10 fantasy points)
Last week both Patriots TE Hunter Henry and Bills TE Dalton Kincaid failed to hit the 10-point threshold. Although, I think Kincaid could’ve hit 10+ fantasy points considering he dropped a touchdown pass and then left the game soon after.
TE T.J. Hockenson ($4,700), WR Elijah Moore ($4,300), TE Tucker Kraft ($4,400), WR Kayshon Boutte ($3,500)
As previously mentioned, I like Hockenson and Kraft in GPPs this week. Elijah Moore is more of a low aDOT, high target earner player who is working a lot out of the slot. Kayshon Boutte is the opposite, as he’s a low target earner with a high aDOT. These players provide nice value on a tight slate, especially with the uncertainty of the cheap QBs available.
Have a great Week 11 of NFL DFS! Make sure to go to advancedsportslogic.com and checkout The Machine – DFS Lineup Optimizer
By Clayton Jones aka @FFPulse88 on Threads.
