As the leaves fall and November ushers in the chill of late autumn, dynasty fantasy football managers find themselves at a crucial juncture in the season. With the playoff picture starting to take shape, now is the time to assess your roster, make strategic adjustments, and prepare for the final push toward fantasy glory. Here we’ll explore key strategies and actionable insights to help you optimize your dynasty team as the regular season reaches its peak.
Analyzing Mid-Season Performances
November offers a wealth of data as teams settle into their identities and player performances stabilize. Here’s how to leverage this crucial information:
Spot Trade Targets: With half a season’s worth of games, players who began strong but have faltered can present ideal buy-low opportunities. Identify these players and target them in trades; they could rebound in the final weeks and pay dividends for your roster. Other good players to target include those who are out due to injury (but will be back shortly), 2nd string running backs, & players who have great underlying stats but are currently being overlooked due to their perceived lack of production. For example, in one of my leagues I recently traded for RB Travis Etienne. For context, Etienne is out due to injury but is projected back in the next few weeks, and wasn't doing that great before he got hurt. Why would I target him in a trade then you ask? Because he will still be the starter when he returns, backup RB Tank Bigsby has started to falter, and Etienne can be had a discount relative to his value at the beginning of the year. This is an example of the type of player we look for that has a high probability of impacting our success in a postive way down the stretch.
Evaluate Rookies’ Progress: Mid-season is the perfect time to assess how rookie players are adapting to the NFL. Keep an eye on their snap counts and involvement in the offense; some may be stepping up as reliable options, while others could be fizzling out. Good metrics to look for include snap share and target share. Understanding their trajectories can help you make informed decisions about their future value in your dynasty league. Rookies such as Brian Thomas Jr., Keon Coleman, & Ladd McConkey are starting to produce more consistently.
Monitor Injuries and Opportunities: Injuries are part and parcel of the NFL, and mid-season injuries often open doors for backups to shine. Stay alert to these changes; a player stepping into a starting role can be a goldmine for your roster. It seems like there have been TONS of injuries this year to many different position players on many different NFL teams. Staying alert to this can provide season-trajectory changing opportunities. Think Browns RB Jerome Ford from earlier in the year for RB Nick Chubb, or Giants rookie RB Tyrone Tracy for RB Devin Singletary. Other examples include: Bengals RB Chase Brown, Browns QB Jameis Winston, & Bucs WR Jalen McMillan & TE Cade Otton.
Adjusting to Emerging Trends
As November rolls on, several trends may start to crystallize. Here’s what to watch for:
Offensive Momentum: Certain teams may hit their stride as the season progresses. Look for offenses that are finding success and capitalize on the players within those systems. Understanding which teams are thriving can help you make educated decisions about starting lineups and trades. Examples include the Tampa Bay Bucs & Washington Commanders.
Defensive Weaknesses: As matchups become clearer, pay attention to defensive units showing vulnerabilities. Whether it’s a team struggling against the run or one with a leaky secondary, targeting players who can exploit these weaknesses can give you a competitive edge.
Player Roles Solidifying: By this point, many teams will have established clear roles for their players. Monitor which players are getting goal-line carries, playing in two-minute drills, or logging significant snaps. This information can guide your start/sit decisions and trade considerations. This is especially vital when evaluating current and potential future performance for rookies. Identifying these and other key trends for players can help you easily identify diamonds in the rough that can (and will) have a significant impact on the rest of your season.
Maximizing Waiver Wire Opportunities
November is a prime time for making moves on the waiver wire. Here’s how to maximize your opportunities:
Identify Breakout Players: Players who have recently emerged can provide a significant boost to your roster. Keep an eye on under-the-radar performers who are suddenly seeing increased playing time. Claiming them before your league-mates catch on can be a game-changer. Browns WR Cedric Tillman would fall into this category.
Handcuffing Stars: With injuries becoming more common, securing the handcuffs for your star players can be vital. If your top running back goes down, having his backup ready to step in can keep your team competitive and maintain your chances at the playoffs. Think RB's like Saints RB Kendre Miller, Patriots RB Antonio Gibson, Eagles RB Kenneth Gainwell, & Rams RB Blake Corum, as they all fall into this category.
Strategic Streaming: November often features favorable matchups, making streaming positions like quarterback or tight end a viable strategy. Look for players with favorable upcoming matchups and capitalize on these opportunities without being overly reliant on past performances. Colts QB Joe Flacco is a perfect example of this, as is Las Vegas QB Gardner Minshew.
Fine-Tuning Your Roster
As the season nears its climax, refining your roster becomes essential. Here’s how:
Assess Your Depth: Take stock of your bench players and determine if they are worth holding onto. Injuries and bye weeks may necessitate tough decisions, so ensure your roster is built for both short-term and long-term success.
Trade for Value: Use mid-season performance data to identify candidates for trades. Target players who are performing well and may help you secure a playoff spot, while also keeping an eye on those who might be struggling but have the potential to rebound.
Stay Informed: Information is key during the stretch run. Follow injury reports, team news, and player updates closely. Being informed can give you a strategic advantage when making roster decisions or trade offers.
November represents a critical period in the dynasty fantasy football landscape. By analyzing mid-season performances, adjusting to emerging trends, maximizing waiver wire opportunities, and fine-tuning your roster, you can set yourself up for a successful playoff push. Stay proactive, keep your finger on the pulse of player developments, and embrace the November narrative to navigate the path to fantasy glory.
