“Woah, we’re halfway there, oh oh—Zero RB teams are livin' on a prayer!”
We've reached Week 8, navigating through injuries and late scratches along the way. Despite these challenges, I had a solid week in DFS. Let’s take a moment to reflect on Week 7 and what it brought us.
QB - Jordan Love- 18.8
RB - Alexander Mattison- 15.3, Bijan Robinson - 26.3, Kenneth Walker - 23.3, Kyren Williams - 19.6
WR - DK Metcalf - 19.9, Drake London - 18.3, Justin Jefferson - 21.4, Romeo Doubs - 17.4
TE - David Njoku - 23.6, Zach Ertz - 14, Brock Bowers - 19.3
D/ST- Chiefs - 8, Bengals - 15
Before we start on Week 8, I’ll share my best scoring GPP lineup.
QB - Joe Burrow- 14.94
RB - Tony Pollard- 8.5
RB - Alexander Mattison- 15.3
WR - Ja’Marr Chase- 17.6
WR - Tee Higgins- 18.2
WR - Noah Brown- 2.6
TE - David Njoku- 23.6
FLEX - Brock Bowers- 19.3
D/ST - Giants- 4
This was an ok DraftKings lineup, finishing 11th out of 100. Titans RB Tony Pollard flopped in a good spot and the Giants defense couldn’t stop a nosebleed. I like the Cincy double stack with Njoku bring back which worked well. Due to the lack of cheap WRs I went double TE with two strong options in Njoku and Bowers.
My other lineup (scored more points but didn’t cash) was a huge Seahawks/Falcons stack: Geno/Walker/Metcalf with Bijan + London bring back. I also used Mattison and WR Noah Brown in this lineup with Colby Parkinson at TE. Hindsight is 20/20 but I should’ve used Njoku again in this lineup otherwise, I’m happy with how it turned out.
Let’s stay hot for Week 8!
Week 8 DraftKings slate
Games to target:
1. GB @ JAX – 49 O/U
Implied totals: GB 26.5; JAX 22.5
2. KC @ LV – 41.5 O/U
Implied totals: KC 25.75; LV 15.75
3. PHI @ CIN – 48 O/U
Implied totals: PHI 23; CIN 25
4. TEN @ DET – 45 O/U
Implied totals: TEN- 17; DET- 28
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterbacks
Jordan Love ($7,100)
Love has been cooking lately, throwing 13 TD passes over his past four games and passing for no less than 220 yards in that same time frame. He gets a wonderful matchup against the Jaguars in Week 8. The Jaguars are 32nd in defensive EPA/play and EPA/drop back. Love is a great DFS play this week as opposed to the Packers hot piss meme.
Bo Nix ($5,600)
Nix wasn’t needed in Week 7 against the Saints; however, Week 8 provides a chance to gain confidence against a toothless Panther’s defense. Nix has 136 rushing yards over his past two games, which is enticing. The Panthers rank 31st in EPA/play, Success Rate, and EPA/drop back. The matchup is ripe for the picking.
Running Back
Saquon Barkley ($8,300)
Saquon continued his revenge tour in Week 7, destroying the Giants to the tune of 17/176/1 on the ground. Saquon should continue dishing out punishment in Week 8 against the Bengals. The Bengals rank 30th in EPA/rush and 32nd in rushing success rate. Try to fit Barkley in as many lineups as possible in Week 8.
Javonte Williams ($6,000)
William’s starter status was looking dicey until rookie RB Audric Estime fumbled and was limited to 5 carries. Williams has secured double-digit carries in four out of seven games this season and has 15 targets over his past three games. Conveniently, he faces a Panthers defense that ranks 29th in EPA/rush and rushing success rate.
Jahmyr Gibbs ($7,400)/ David Montgomery ($6,400)
The Lions backfield should feast this week against a bad Titans team. Although the Titans rank well against the run, Detroit is heavily favored, and I expect them to lean on the run. Additionally, Detroit has 11 rushing TDs on the year and is at a 50/50 run-pass ratio so far. I would lean more to Gibbs in GPPs and Montgomery in cash, but both are strong options.
Other options:
D’Andre Swift ($6,200): the Commanders rank 27th in EPA/rush and 23rd in rushing success rate.
Breece Hall ($7,300): The Patriots rank 24th in EPA/rush and since Robert Saleh has been fired, RB Braelon Allen has been removed from the offense.
Wide Receiver
Romeo Doubs ($5,700)
Since I have a lot of expensive RB recommendations, I’m countering that with cheaper WRs. Doubs is a great option in Week 8. He gets a great matchup and is tied for 1st on the Packers for red zone targets. Doubs also leads the Packers in WOPR and air yards share.
Drake London ($7,200)
London has double-digit fantasy points in every game this season, including a 36.4 point explosion against the Bucs, who London conveniently plays against in Week 8. London still sits 15th in WOPR and 11th in target share. Meanwhile, the Bucs defense sits 22nd in EPA/drop back and 28th in drop back success rate. It’s a great week to play London, isn't it?
AJ Brown ($8,400)
What can Brown do for you? Well, he leads all WRs in WOPR, target share (38%), and air yards share (60%). His gaudy stats should continue against a below-average Bengals defense. The Bengals rank 21st defensively in both EPA/drop back and drop back success rate. Even though Brown is expensive, he’s a must have in Week 8.
Other options:
Tyreek Hill ($7,000): Tua is back and the Cardinals rank 29th in EPA/play, 32nd in passing success rate, 30th in EPA/drop back, and 32nd in drop back success rate.
Garrett Wilson ($6,700): the Patriots stink and were just throttled by the lowly Jaguars.
Demario Douglas ($4,700): prior to Week 7’s illness, Douglas commanded 9 targets in both Weeks 5 & 6.
Tight End
David Njoku ($5,100)
Per Browns beat reporter Mary Kay Cabot, QB Jameis Winston will be starting in Week 8, meaning fantasy goodness for all. Njoku had 14 targets with 3 different QBs in one game. There’s few playmakers on the Browns offense and Njoku has seized his opportunity to shine. Furthering Njoku’s cause is his opponent, the Baltimore Ravens, who have allowed the 7th most fantasy points to TEs on the year.
Brock Bowers ($6,100)
Bowers has been a certified stud in fantasy. He has 36 targets over his last three games, and has scored 16+ fantasy points in those same games. Bowers sits 2nd in WOPR, 3rd in target share (24%), and tied for 2nd in air yards share among all TEs. Helping Bowers even more in Week 8 is his matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs, who rank 1st in fantasy points allowed to TEs.
Cade Otton ($3,500)
Otton smashed in Week 7, going for an 8/80 line. With WR Chris Godwin and WR Mike Evans out, the Bucs offense turns to Otton and a bunch of inexperienced WRs. Otton faces a Falcons defense that ranks 24th in EPA/drop back, 23rd in drop back success rate, and 23rd in EPA/play. He's a great salary relief play.
D/ST
There are a lot of good options (Lions, Broncos, Chiefs), yet they are expensive. Also, with the high prices on RBs and WRs, I’m going to find other options for you. However, if you can fit these defenses in, do it.
Los Angeles Chargers ($3,300)
The Chargers are more expensive than I’d like but a matchup with rookie QB Spencer Rattler should provide plenty of opportunities for defensive scoring. Rattler has 3 fumbles and 2 INTs over two games. This game has the 2nd lowest over/under on the week.
Favorite stacks:
1. Bo Nix + Javonte Williams and/or Troy Franklin with no bring back.
2. Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase and/or Tee Higgins with AJB and/or Saquon Barkley bring back. You could also reverse the stack and go Jalen Hurts + AJB and/or Saquon with Ja’Marr Chase and/or Tee Higgins bring back.
3. Jordan Love + Romeo Doubs and/or Tucker Kraft with Brian Thomas Jr and/or Evan Engram bring back.
4. Tua Tagovailoa + Tyreek Hill and/or DeVon Achane with James Conner and/or Trey McBride bring back.
GPP Plays:
Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson ($8,000)
Jackson is certainly cash viable, yet his high price tag might dissuade some from using him in GPPs. He’s had 40+ rushing yards in every game as well as two 300+ yard passing performances. The Browns defense may slow the Ravens a bit, however, Lamar should be able to overcome them. The Ravens rank 2nd in offensive EPA/play, success rate, EPA/drop back and 1st in drop back success rate.
Jared Goff ($6,600)
Goff has 7 TD passes and has passed for 280+ yards in his past three games. The Lions rushing attack will be popular this week so using Goff will give you strong leverage vs the field. The Lions rank 4th in offense EPA/play, 6th in success rate, 5th in EPA/drop back and 8th in drop back success rate.
Other options: Kyler Murray ($6,400): Murray has been difficult to peg. However, after burning people every other week he should be low-rostered and has strong stacking options.
Tua Tagovailoa ($6,100).
I also like Jordan Love ($7,100) and Joe Burrow ($7,000) in GPPs this week.
Running Back
JK Dobbins ($6,900)
Dobbins is still leading the Chargers backfield after a few down performances, including snap shares of 73.3% in Week 6 and 68.8% in Week 7. He draws the Saints in Week 8, who defensively rank 31st in EPA/rush and rushing success rate. With the more expensive backs soaking up rostership, Dobbins could be a sneaky, exploitable value.
Other Options:
De’Von Achane ($6,700): Tua is back. #analysis,
Rachaad White ($5,700): White leads the Bucs backfield in WOPR and target share (12%) and should be used to fill the void of WR Chris Godwin and potentially WR Mike Evans.
Joe Mixon ($7,700): Mixon has nearly 60 fantasy points over his last two games and OC Bobby Slowik can’t quit running the ball every single 1st down.
I also like my cash RBs for GPPs.
Wide Receivers
Tyreek Hill ($7,000)
Even with his bad games, Hill still sits 15th in WOPR and in Week 8 he gets his QB back. Additionally, Hill gets a phenomenal matchup against the Cardinals in Week 8. The Cardinals defense sits 29th in EPA/play, 30th in EPA/drop back and 32nd in drop back success rate. Use Hill with confidence in GPPs this week.
Brian Thomas Jr. ($6,400)
Thomas is a big play merchant and gets a suspect Packers secondary in Week 8. The Packers sit 27th in defensive drop back success rate and 28th in success rate. If the Packers (-4) force the issue, Thomas will need to be involved and could make the Packers secondary pay (just watch his highlights against Christian Gonzalez last week).
Other options: Amari Cooper ($6,000): it’s only been one week, and Cooper already leads the Bills in WOPR
Cedric Tillman ($3,300): Tillman had 12 targets in his first real action and no one besides Njoku in his way target share wise.
There are plenty of WR options this week.
Tight Ends
TE Sam LaPorta ($4,800)
With WR Jameson Williams out due to suspension, LaPorta has a chance to reinsert himself in the offensive spotlight. With the Lions backfield expected to be popular, LaPorta makes for nice leverage.
TE Tucker Kraft ($4,600)
Kraft is tied for 1st in red zone targets and sits 4th in both WOPR and target share on the Packers roster. Kraft’s opponent in Week 8, the Jacksonville Jaguars, have allowed the 6th most fantasy points to TEs.
D/ST
Seattle Seahawks ($2,500)
A defense facing QB Josh Allen is usually a fade for me. However, the Seahawks rank 4th in defensive pressure rate. Maybe the pressure rate and cross-country travel can give us a decent performance? The good D/ST are quite expensive this week, so Seattle makes for a decent play.
Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)
WR Juju Smith-Schuster barely played due to injury (I’m not mad). Time to rebound in Week 8.
WR Cedric Tillman ($3,300)
Tillman looked good in Week 7 and has only TE David Njoku to compete with target share wise. Tillman earned 12 targets and gets a great matchup against a pass-funnel Ravens defense.
Have a great Week 8 of NFL DFS! Make sure to go to advancedsportslogic.com and checkout The Machine – DFS Lineup Optimizer
By Clayton Jones aka @FF_Pulse_88 on Twitter.
