As the crisp autumn air settles in and October rolls around, the NFL season hits its stride. For dynasty fantasy football managers, this month is critical for not just sustaining success, but also for laying the groundwork for future triumphs. With a few weeks of data under our belts, early-season insights morph into actionable strategies. Whether you're 4-0, 0-4, or somewhere in-between, the month of October is pivotal for most fantasy football teams.
Analyzing Early Season Performances
The first month of the NFL season serves as a rich source of data. By carefully scrutinizing performances from the initial weeks, managers can gain valuable insights.
Spotting Breakout Candidates
October is prime time for identifying players who are poised for breakout seasons. Pay attention to players who may have started slowly but are beginning to show signs of improvement. Metrics like snap counts, target shares, and routes run provide context beyond basic statistics. If a player is consistently gaining more targets or has seen an uptick in their snap percentage, it might indicate a breakout is on the horizon. An example of this is Chiefs 2nd year WR Rashee Rice, who was looking like a breakout star before his Week 4 injury.
Evaluating Offensive Roles
Understanding how offenses utilize players is crucial. Look for emerging roles, especially in goal-line situations and third downs. Players with specific usage patterns, such as those receiving red zone opportunities or those integrated into passing schemes, can be more reliable moving forward. This knowledge can be instrumental in making trades or waiver claims. 2nd string RB's are a perfect example of this strategy, so consider players along the lines of Jacksonville RB Tank Bigsby, Cincinnati RB Chase Brown, Seattle RB Zach Charbonnet, and/or New England RB Antonio Gibson.
Monitoring Injuries and Their Impact
Injuries can drastically alter the fantasy landscape. Keep an eye on player health, as injuries to starters can elevate backups into significant roles. October often sees a rise in injuries due to the physicality of the game, so being proactive in acquiring potential fill-ins can give your team a competitive edge. Examples here include players such as: Jacksonville TE Brenton Strange (filling in for injured TE Evan Engram), or Tennessee QB Mason Rudolph (starting in place of injured QB Will Levis).
Adjusting to October Trends
With the early season trends established, October provides an opportunity to adapt your strategies based on new information.
Offensive Schemes and Adaptations
NFL teams often tweak their offensive strategies as the season progresses. Observe how teams adapt after a few weeks—are they emphasizing the run more? Are they utilizing play-action more effectively? Recognizing these changes can help you make informed decisions about which players to start or trade.
Defensive Matchups
Pay close attention to defensive performance. Are certain teams struggling against specific positions, such as running backs or tight ends? Identifying these vulnerabilities allows you to exploit favorable matchups for your players. This insight is particularly valuable when crafting your weekly lineups or deciding which players to target via trade. For example, it may be wise to start any QB going up against the Minnesota Vikings, a team that has currently given up the most passing yards in the league.
Rookie and Second-Year Player Development
As rookies and second-year players gain experience, some may begin to emerge as key contributors. Monitor their performances closely, as this is often when young players start to find their rhythm. Those who were drafted for their potential are now getting significant playing time, and you want to capitalize on their growth. While studs such as Washington QB Jayden Daniels, Raiders TE Brock Bowers, Arizona WR Marvin Harrison Jr. and New York Giants WR Malik Nabers are already capitalizing on their opportunities, look for under the radar rookies who have a chance to bust out as the season moves along. Players such as Jacksonville WR Brian Thomas, Tampa RB Bucky Irving, & Chicago WR Rome Odunze are beginning to make more of an impact.
Capitalizing on Waiver Wire Opportunities
October is ripe for strategic waiver wire moves. Here's how to effectively bolster your roster:
Target Emerging Talents
Players who have emerged as stars or consistent contributors in recent weeks are often available on the waiver wire. Act quickly to secure these players before your league-mates catch wind of their potential. Focus on players who have shown consistent performances over the last couple of weeks rather than one-off games. A few examples here include players such as Ravens RB Justice Hill & Colts WR Alec Pierce.
Handcuffing Your Star Players
Injuries are part and parcel of the NFL, and ensuring you have the handcuff for your top players can save your season. If you own a star running back, acquiring their backup—especially if that backup has shown flashes of talent—can be a lifesaver if your starter goes down. Wise backup options include: Saints RB Kendre Miller, Seahawks RB Zach Charbonnet, Vikings RB Ty Chandler, 49ers RB Jordan Mason (if he isn't already rostered in your league), & Cardinals RB Trey Benson.
Streaming Positions Wisely
Streaming quarterbacks, tight ends, or defenses can be an effective strategy in October, especially with bye weeks coming into play. Matchup-based streaming allows you to maximize points while navigating your roster's limitations. Look for favorable matchups against defenses that have struggled against specific positions.
Fine-Tuning Your Roster
October is an excellent time to reassess your roster. Here’s how to ensure you’re making the most of your team’s potential.
Trade for Value
Use your knowledge of early-season trends to identify buy-low and sell-high candidates. Target players who have underperformed but possess the talent and opportunity to bounce back. Conversely, consider selling high on players who have had flukey performances that are unlikely to be sustained.
Assessing Depth
As bye weeks approach, depth becomes critical. Evaluate your bench players to determine who should remain on your roster and who might be expendable. Prioritize acquiring players who can provide reliable production, especially if your starters will be unavailable during bye weeks. In dynasty leagues, don't be afraid to part with lesser, younger players and/or draft picks to stabilize and fortify your roster depth, as this could mean the difference between a crucial win or a loss that takes you out of the playoff picture completely.
Stay Updated
Continuously monitor player news, injury reports, and emerging trends. Being informed is crucial for making timely decisions. Knowledge of practice participation, game-day injuries, and other relevant information can help you stay ahead of your league-mates. If a player is listed as questionable and you have a player of similar tier and talent level, don't be afraid to play the bench player. This can also relate to benching a stud and starting a lesser player if the stud's playing status is up in the air. It's always better to have some points in your starting lineup than none.
Key Strategies for October Success
To ensure your dynasty team remains competitive, consider implementing the following strategies throughout October:
Monitor Target Shares and Snap Counts
Keep a close eye on how targets are distributed among players. A player with a high target share is often a reliable producer, making them more valuable in trades and lineups. Additionally, tracking snap counts can reveal which players are truly involved in their team's game plan. An example of a rookie TE getting over 50% of his team's snaps is Carolina TE Ja'Tayvion Sanders. While Sanders has yet to have a "breakout", the fact that he's getting over 50% of the team's snaps at the TE position is an encouraging.
Capitalize on Favorable Matchups
Take advantage of early trends and favorable matchups when setting your lineup. Adjust your strategy based on which players are facing defenses that have shown vulnerabilities. This proactive approach can lead to unexpected point boosts.
Plan Ahead for Bye Weeks
October marks the beginning of bye weeks for several teams. Start planning for these absences now. Look at your roster and strategize which players you’ll need to replace. This foresight can prevent last-minute scrambling for waiver wire pickups. For example, if you're in a Super-flex league and both of your QBs have their bye in Week 14, it would be wise to try to acquire at least one QB before Week 14 (this also depends on where your team falls in the standings)
Adapt to the Evolving Landscape
Be prepared to adapt your strategies as the season progresses. Dynasty leagues are a long-term commitment, but that doesn’t mean you can’t be flexible in the short term. Embrace changes and make calculated risks to stay ahead of the competition. One other thing to keep in mind is that things can and will still change during this month. Even though you may have an advantage if your team is currently 4-0, injuries and lack of depth can (and have) sapped that start right out the window to the point where a month from now your team could no longer be playoff bound. On the flip side, if you've started out 0-4 (or somewhere in the middle), all is not quite lost, but it will be an uphill battle to get back into the playoff race.
October is a pivotal month for dynasty fantasy football managers. By analyzing early season performances, adjusting to emerging trends, capitalizing on waiver wire opportunities, and fine-tuning your roster, you can set the stage for long-term success. Stay informed, proactive, and strategic as you navigate this crucial month, and watch your team thrive as the season unfolds. Even though you may be in the driver's seat if your team is 4-0, don't get passive, and stay on top of things to get to that crucial 8-win mark and a playoff berth. For those of you who are 0-4, don't give up, but take things and games one week at a time and do your best to get your team back in the playoff race. Remember, there is no reason to completely tear down and rebuild until you are completely eliminated from playoff contention. Embrace the October momentum to propel your dynasty ambitions forward! Best of luck!
