Just when you think you know something, Week 3 comes and turns everything upside down. Teams that were thriving (Saints, Cardinals, Texans, Buccaneers) flopped, and the running game continues to dominate, much to the chagrin of the Zero RB bro’s (raises hand). Let’s take a quick look back at my Week 3 recommendations.
QB- Sam Darnold- 23.24, Dak Prescott- 32.86, Brock Purdy- 26.78,
RB- Zach Charbonnet- 25.7
WR- Chris Olave- 20.6, Chris Godwin- 17.3, Malik Nabers- 28.2, Amon-Ra St. Brown- 20.5
TE- None
Before we start on Week 4, I’ll share my best scoring GPP lineup.
QB- Lamar Jackson- 25.98
RB- Jahmyr Gibbs- 16.3
RB- D’Andre Swift.- 6.2
WR- Zay Flowers- 5.3
WR- Chris Godwin- 17.3
WR- Jaxon Smith-Njigba- 6.9
TE- Tommy Tremble- 5.9
FLEX- Jordan Mason- 10.8
D/ST- Vikings- 13, Giants- 13
I had a good correlation with this lineup, however, it did not mean cash. Getting Lamar Jackson at 5% was wonderful, however he only got himself there and did not take Zay Flowers with him. I thought Gibbs would be a good piece to use as leverage against a heavily-rostered Jameson Williams. There was no doubt Godwin was not going to be in my lineup. Seattle WR Jaxson Smith-Njigba was a leverage play against a popular RB Zach Charbonnet. The best play of this lineup was the Vikings defense leveraged against the Texans offense and dirt cheap.
Time to turn things around for Week 4!
Week 4 DraftKings slate
Games to target:
1. JAX @ HOU – 45.5 O/U
Implied totals: JAX 19.5; HOU 26
2. WAS @ ARI - 50 O/U
Implied totals: WAS 23.25; ARI 26.75
3. CIN @ CAR – 47 O/U
Implied totals: CIN 25.5; CAR 21.5
4. KC @ LAC – 50 O/U
Implied totals: KC- 23.75; LAC- 16.25
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterbacks
Washington QB Jayden Daniels ($6,500)
Daniels has had 10+ rushing attempts in every game this season and now is adding the passing game. He had his 1st game of 250+ passing yards and 2 passing TDs in Week 3. Daniels should continue crank out fantasy points in Week 4.
Arizona QB Kyler Murray ($6,800)
Murray had a mediocre Week 3 after a stellar Week 2. Murray was unable to connect deep with stud rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. However, he should have plenty of room and time to connect with his young receiver this week, as the Commanders defense is allowing the 3rd most passing yards (791) and the most passing TDs (9) so far on the year.
Chicago QB Caleb Williams ($5,600)
This pick is a gamble, although the Rams defense has been terrible and so has the Bears’ running game. Meaning the Bears path to victory will ride on the shoulders of Williams, who had a career-high in passing attempts in Week 3 (52).
Running Back
Arizona RB James Conner ($6,500)
Conner had season-lows in carries, targets, and YPC last week against a tough Detroit run defense. The Commanders are middle of the pack against the run and yet, allowed Bengals RB Zack Moss to score 20.7 fantasy points last week. Conner should get back to double-digit carries and fantasy points in Week 4.
Steelers RB Najee Harris ($5,600)
The least sexiest play of the slate. But how many RBs are getting 17+ carries week in and week out? Not many. Harris is getting the volume and has a good matchup against the Colts in Week 4, as they have allowed the 2nd most rushing yards this year (537).
Other options: Panthers RB Chuba Hubbard ($5,700), Seattle RB Kenneth Walker ($6,300), (if ruled out Zach Charbonnet is a great option) New Orleans RB Alvin Kamara ($7,500), two words, Klint Kubiak.
Wide Receiver
Arizona WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7,500)
Harrison is currently sporting a strong 26% target share along with a 70% WOPR. The matchup couldn’t be better after a rough Week 3. The Commanders have allowed the 5th most passing yards and the most passing TDs so far this year. Fire up Maserati Marv in Week 4.
Chiefs WR Rashee Rice ($7,300)
Rice is a lock button play. With the Chiefs having so many primetime games, we really haven’t had the chance to use him, but now that he’s available lock him in lineups for Week 4. Rice currently sits with a 32% target share and a 73% WOPR.
Texans WR Nico Collins ($7,200)
Collins is dominating in the Texans offense. Even though he hasn’t had a huge game yet, Collins has a 43% air yards share, 26% target share and a 69% WOPR. Even better for Collins is his matchup in Week 4, the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars have allowed the 6th most passing yards and are tied for 4th most passing TDs allowed. Start Collins with confidence in Week 4.
Other options: Bears WR Keenan Allen (pending health) ($6,100), if Allen misses I love some Rome Odunze ($5,200) in this spot instead. Carolina WR Diontae Johnson ($5,600). In his first game with QB Andy Dalton, Johnson had 14 targets, and now teammate Adam Thielen is expected to miss time. Diontae qualifies as a lock-button play this week in cash and GPPs.
Tight End
Atlanta TE Kyle Pitts ($4,800)
Recommending Pitts always makes my stomach turn. However, the Saints have allowed the 5th most points to TEs this season. We are no longer paying up for TEs in DFS and Pitts is fairly priced in a dome game against the Saints.
Bears TE Cole Kmet ($4,400)
Kmet is the early frontrunner for fantasy zombie in 2024. After an abysmal first two weeks, offensive coordinator Shane Waldron finally decided to use the best TE on the roster and Kmet thrived in Week 3, going for a 10/97/1 line. Kmet’s opponent in Week 4, the Rams, have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to TEs.
Other options: Tyler Conklin ($3,600)
D/ST
Minnesota Vikings ($2,900)
The Vikings rank 3rd in pressure rate and 2nd in blitz rate. It is unlikely that QB Jordan Love starts leaving QB Malik Willis to deal with an immense amount of pressure.
Favorite stacks:
1. Patrick Mahomes + Rashee Rice and/or Travis Kelce with no bring back.
2. Kyler Murray + Marvin Harrison Jr. with Terry McLaurin/Zach Ertz bring back. You could also go Jayden Daniels + Terry McLaurin and/or Zach Ertz with Marvin Harrison Jr. bring back.
3. C.J Stroud + Nico Collins and/or Tank Dell no bring back needed. Brian Thomas Jr. or Travis Etienne are the only players I would use as a bring back.
4. Joe Burrow + Ja’Marr Chase and/or Mike Gesicki with Diontae Johnson or Chuba Hubbard bring back.
GPP Plays:
Quarterbacks
Pittsburgh QB Justin Fields ($5,500)
Fields is the ultimate GPP play this week. He gets a great matchup against a bad Colts defense. Even though Fields hasn’t rushed much the past two weeks, Week 1 reminds us that he still has that crazy ceiling (57 rushing yards). Fields also has decent stacking partners in WR George Pickens and TE Pat Freiermuth.
San Fran QB Brock Purdy ($6,100)
Purdy has had back-to-back games of 290+ passing yards, and I expect him to continue to pass with RB Christian McCaffrey still injured. Also, Purdy sneakily added 40 rushing yards in Week 3.
Other options: Saints QB Derek Carr ($5,900), Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes ($7,100)
Running Back
Houston RB Cam Akers ($5,300)
Joe Mixon and Dameon Pierce should miss Week 4, leaving the door open for Akers to smash through. Akers had a tough matchup in Week 3 and now gets the Jaguars in Week 4, who have allowed the 4th most fantasy points to RBs.
Cincinnati RB Zack Moss ($5,000)
Moss handled 12 carries and 5 targets last week and is firmly in control of the RB1 spot for the Bengals. He gets a fantastic matchup against the Panthers, who have allowed the 5th most fantasy points to RBs.
I like my cash options at RB as well for GPPs this week.
Wide Receivers
Saints WR Rashid Shaheed ($5,500)
Derek Carr and Shaheed couldn’t get on the same page last week but alas another dome game in Week 4 provides another opportunity for the two to hook up. Shaheed still has a 48% air yards share, 24% target share and 71% WOPR.
Jets WR Allen Lazard ($4,300)
WR Garrett Wilson will be getting the Patrick Surtain Jr. treatment leaving QB Aaron Rodgers' old pal Lazard wide open. Lazard should be involved in the Jets 23.5 implied total.
Other options: Jacksonville WR Brian Thomas Jr. ($5,400), Patriots WR Demario Douglas ($4,500)
I also like my cash options for GPPs this week.
Tight Ends
Vikings TE Johnny Mundt ($3,400)
Mundt is dirt cheap and is getting weekly targets. He is averaging 3 targets per game and finally hit pay-dirt in Week 3. The Packers are allowing the 6th most fantasy points to TEs this season.
Steelers TE Pat Freiermuth ($3,900)
Freiermuth keeps us consistent with the cheap TE theme. ‘Muth has 4 receptions in every game this season. Again, it’s not much but since we're punting TE, the juice isn’t worth the squeeze. The Colts are allowing the 8th most points to TEs this season.
D/ST
Chicago Bears ($3,100)
The Bears are 5th in pressure rate and the Rams have lost half of the offensive line to injuries. I’m trusting the Bears to shutdown Stafford and crew in Week 4.
Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)
Diontae and Wan’Dale crushed it last week. Time to get after Week 4.
Atlanta WR Darnell Mooney ($4,400), Chargers WR Ladd McConkey ($4,800).
Mooney in a dome game, currently toting a 22% target share and a 28% air yards share, seems like a solid play.
McConkey is dicey with the status of QB Justin Herbert in question. However, McConkey should be the safety valve for whoever is behind center and I expect the Chargers to trail, meaning they will have to pass to catch up.
Have a great Week 4 of NFL DFS! Make sure to go to advancedsportslogic.com and checkout The Machine – DFS Lineup Optimizer
By Clayton Jones aka @FF_Pulse_88 on Twitter.
