Where is the scoring?! Through the first two weeks of the NFL season, the scoring has been down (69 TDs, lowest in the past 5 seasons through two weeks), making fantasy football and DFS trickier. Luckily, I’m here to help you navigate the good/great DFS plays and help you win some cold hard cash. Let’s take a quick look back at my Week 2 recommendations.
QB- no good QB plays last week
RB- J.K. Dobbins- 22.6, James Conner- 21.9, Josh Jacobs- 16.1
WR- Rashee Rice- 29, Chris Godwin - 23.1, Malik Nabers- 31.7, Deebo Samuel- 17
TE- Brock Bowers- 14.3, Trey McBride- 15.7
Before we start on Week 3, I’ll share my best scoring GPP lineup.
QB- Daniel Jones- 18.32
RB- Derrick Henry- 16.6
RB- Brian Robinson Jr.- 17.6
WR- Xavier Worthy- 4.2
WR- Chris Godwin- 27.7
WR- Malik Nabers- 31.7
TE- Zach Ertz- 10.2
FLEX- Kyren Williams- 15.2
D/ST- Jets- 11
I really liked this lineup, however, it did not mean cash. The Giants/Commander’s stack was low-rostered and I nailed the right WRs in Godwin and Nabers. I did not get the pivot off Cooper Kupp correct though. I thought Kyren Williams was the right play, as it turns out, Marvin Harrison Jr. was the true pivot off of a chalky Cooper Kupp.
Let’s continue to find great plays for Week 3.
Week 3 DraftKings slate
Games to target:
1. PHI @ NO – 49.5 O/U
Implied totals: PHI 23.25; NO 26.25
2. DET @ ARI - 52.5 O/U
Implied totals: DET 27.75; ARI 24.75
3. BAL @ DAL – 48.5 O/U
Implied totals: BAL 25; DAL 23.5
4. HOU @ MIN – 46 O/U
Implied totals: HOU- 24.25; MIN- 21.75
Top Cash Plays:
Quarterbacks
Derek Carr ($5,800)
OC Klint Kubiak should already be a hot HC candidate this offseason, even after two weeks. We saw how dreadful the Saints offense was last year and they’ve transitioned into a juggernaut with Kubiak at the helm. Carr has back-to-back 20 points fantasy games and that involved blowing opponents out. If the Eagles offense comes to play, Carr could have a huge week. Carr also makes for a great GPP play.
Baker Mayfield ($6,300)
What year is it?? Recommending Derek Carr and Baker Mayfield in the same article is strange. The fact remains, Carr and Mayfield are the #1 and #2 scoring QBs in fantasy now. Baker has 5 passing TDs through two games and is terrible at running the ball. The Bucs have the 9th fewest rushing yards (182) and 3rd worst yards per carry (3.4) on the season. Expect another strong outing from Mayfield in Week 3.
Kyler Murray ($6,900)
Murray and rookie WR Marvin Harrison Jr. fixed the woes of Week 1 in Week 2. Murray cranked out 28.54 fantasy points, including rushing for over 50 yards in back-to-back games. In Week 3, Murray gets to face a Lions defense that has allowed the 6th most passing yards and the 9th most fantasy points to the QB position.
Other options: Sam Darnold ($5,500) it’s not necessary to go this low in cash, but if you really want to stack your lineup with superstars, this is the route.
Running Back
Tony Pollard ($6,000)
He’s back. Pollard has looked good and has stolen the spotlight in Tennessee. He has back-to-back games of 60+ rushing yards and 4+ targets. A Week 3 matchup against the Packers, who have allowed the 11th most rushing yards and tied for 5th in highest yards per carry allowed (5.1), should bode well for Pollard.
Jordan Mason ($6,200)
Mason is as close to a lock button in all DFS lineup this week. He has had over 100 rushing yards and a TD in both games this season. The Rams offense is crumbling, and Mason should be used heavily to seal the deal in Week 3.
Other options: Josh Jacobs ($6,700), Kenneth Walker ($6,300), (if ruled out Zach Charbonnet is a great option) Alvin Kamara ($7,500) two words, Klint Kubiak.
Wide Receiver
Amon Ra St. Brown ($8,200)
The “Sun” God is pricey this week after accumulating 19 targets in Week 2. Amon Ra will do more heavy lifting against the Cardinals in Week 3 that includes an implied game total of 52.5 points.
Chris Godwin ($6,500)
Godwin should get another chance to smash in Week 3. Mike Evans should draw stud CB Patrick Surtain, leaving Godwin to run free in the slot. Godwin currently ranks 5th in WOPR and 2nd in target share (36%) through two weeks.
Malik Nabers ($6,400)
Through two games, Nabers leads all wide receivers in WOPR (98%) and target share (42%). Albeit a small sample size, Nabers is demanding the ball and QB Daniel Jones is abiding. Nabers' opponent in Week 3, the Browns, are tied for the 5th highest yards/reception allowed (12.1) on the season.
Other options: Deebo Samuel ($7,100), Keenan Allen (pending health, $6,200)- even after missing Week 2, Allen ranks 2nd in WOPR and tied for 3rd in target share (33%).
Tight End
Trey McBride ($6,200)
McBride is expensive in Week 3 and yet with that high salary you get the TE who ranks 2nd in both WOPR (62%) and target share (29%). McBride seems well worth the cost.
Brock Bowers ($5,400)
Bowers comes into Week 3 ranking 3rd in WOPR (53%) and target share (23%). Stud WR Davante Adams isn’t holding Bowers back. With the Panthers turning to the red rifle in QB Andy Dalton, the Raiders may have to pass more than expected.
Other options: Jonnu Smith ($3,400)
D/ST
San Francisco 49ers ($3,500)
The Rams have been ravaged by injuries across the O-line and WR position. Due to the injuries on the O-line, the Rams have the 3rd highest pressure rate allowed (32.5%). The 49ers are a near lock button in cash this week.
Favorite stacks:
1. Derek Carr + Chris Olave/Rashid Shaheed with DeVonta Smith/Saquon Barkley bring back.
2. Kyler Murray + Marvin Harrison Jr. and/or Trey McBride with Jameson Williams/Amon Ra St. Brown/David Montgomery/Jahmyr Gibbs bring back. A lot of ways to get unique with this matchup.
3. Dak Prescott + CeeDee Lamb with Zay Flowers bring back.
4. CJ Stroud + Nico Collins and/or Tank Dell with Justin Jefferson or Aaron Jones bring back.
GPP Plays:
Quarterbacks
Dak Prescott ($6,600)
The Cowboys offense has been hit-or-miss through two weeks. In Week 1, they cranked out 33 points, in contrast, they squeezed out 19 points in Week 2. Fortunately, the Cowboys face the Ravens in Week 3, who have allowed the most passing yards (567), and the 3rd highest completion percentage (75.8%) and yards/att (8.6) to QBs.
Brock Purdy ($6,000)
Purdy is a great leverage play against Jordan Mason, who will be one of the highest-rostered players on the week. He hit the 300 yard bonus last week and is in a great bounce-back spot in Week 3.
Running Back
De’Von Achane ($7,000)
Achane already leads all RBs in receptions and receiving yards and now gets checkdown artist Skylar Thompson behind center to pepper him even more. The Seahawks main weakness on defense is over the middle and that’s where Achane will be cooking in Week 3.
D'Andre Swift ($6,800)
Swift has been awful running the ball lately. He has 48 yards on 24 carries, a whopping 2 yards per carry. Insert the Colts defense, who have been decimated defensively with injuries in Week 2 (DeForest Buckner on IR, Laiatu Latu- hip injury) should be the perfect elixir. After two weeks of play, the Colts have allowed the most rushing yards (474) and tied for the 5th highest yards/carry allowed (5.1). Swift should also garner incredibly low rostership.
I like my cash options at RB as well for GPPs this week.
Wide Receivers
Brandon Aiyuk ($6,200)
With fellow WR Deebo Samuel doubtful to play in Week 3 (calf), the door is open for Aiyuk to smash. Aiyuk didn’t have an ideal offseason or 1st two games yet now is the time for him to step-up his game. In 13 games that Samuel has missed, Aiyuk has accumulated 67 catches for 848 yards and 6 TDs. Aiyuk also provides an avenue to gain leverage directly against Jordan Mason.
Ceedee Lamb ($8,800)
The once feared Ravens defense seems to be in disarray. The Ravens are allowing the 3rd most PPG to WRs and the Cowboys are unable to run the football. This recipe should allow for a huge day for Lamb.
Chris Olave ($6,300)
Fellow WR Rashid Shaheed has been a fantasy darling so far in 2024. However, let’s not forget about Olave. Olave has a 24% target share on the season and is 2nd in WOPR on the Saints to Shaheed. This is a great spot to fade a popular Shaheed, who has cashed in on long TDs so far this season. He cannot maintain this scorching pace which is why I like Olave in GPPs this week.
I also like my cash options for GPPs this week.
Tight Ends
Jonnu Smith ($3,400)
With QB Tua Tagovailoa exiting Week 2, Smith started to come alive. He collected 6 receptions on 7 targets for 53 yards. Now enter a Seahawks team that’s struggled to guard the middle of the field (Pats TE Hunter Henry torched them for 8/109 in Week 2) and we get an interesting, cheap, low-rostered TE play for Week 3.
Sam LaPorta ($6,000)
LaPorta has fallen victim to WR Jameson Williams’ early season breakout. However, Week 3 provides a great spot to be contrarian and fade the popular duo of Amon-Ra St Brown and Jameson Williams while gaining leverage with LaPorta.
D/ST
New York Giants ($3,200)
The #1 team in pressures per drop back allowed in the NFL is the Browns at 40.4%! Nearly half of their drop backs are resulting in pressure. The Giants should be able to capitalize on the poor offensive line and QB play from the Browns, especially with their 12th highest blitz rate (26.6%).
Minnesota Vikings ($2,400)
If the Giants play wasn’t edgy enough, then I present the Vikings defense. The Vikings rank 2nd in defensive pressure rate and 1st in sacks while the Texans O-line is allowing pressure at a 28.6% rate, which is 7th highest among NFL teams.
Lone Ranger (sub $5,000 player that can score over 10 fantasy points)
Chargers WR Ladd McConkey wasn’t needed in Week 2 thanks to RB J.K. Dobbins and Carolina QB Bryce Young, resulting in only 4.6 points. Arizona WR Greg Dortch was neutered thanks to the arrival of Marvin Harrison Jr in Week 2. Giants WR Wan’Dale Robinson came up just short of 10 points at 9.8. Time to turn things around in Week 3.
Panthers WR Diontae Johnson ($4,900), Wan’Dale Robinson ($4,400).
Johnson gets a significant upgrade with Andy Dalton slated to start for the Panthers in Week 3. Although the Panthers O-line is terrible, Johnson will be open early and often and Dalton should be able to see him and target him accordingly.
Also, I’m going back to Wan’Dale Robinson again. The Browns are middle of the pack in pressure rate yet the atrocity that is the Giants O-line (allowing pressure at a rate of 31.6%), will cause QB Daniel Jones to have to get rid of the ball quickly, which suits Robinson.
Have a great Week 3 of NFL DFS! Make sure to go to advancedsportslogic.com and checkout The Machine – DFS Lineup Optimizer
By Clayton Jones aka @FF_Pulse_88 on Twitter.
