I've played dynasty fantasy football for the last 17 years. Every year I learn more and refine my strategy.
This Week 1 presented another Eureka moment in my dynasty strategy.
First, if you read my posts you will know central to my strategy is efficient use of draft picks and efficient trades. Some of the key points of my strategy are covered in these posts:
So what did I learn this week?
First, it's obvious that Week 1 is the most unpredictable week of the NFL season. With the off-season, players change teams, several retire, and unproven rookies fill-in to take their place.
Who could image that Malik Nabers, (WR), NYG, a rookie that never played a regular season NFL game, would outperform fantasy stud Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR), Det? I certainly didn't. Therefore in one of my keeper leagues I had St. Brown in my lineup with only 4.3 fantasy points, and Nabers on my bench with 11.6 fantasy points. Fortunately for me, my opponent started Dalton Kincaid (TE), Buf over Isaiah Likely (TE), Bal, for 2.1 fantasy points instead of 26.1 fantasy points, and Amari Cooper (WR), Cle and Terry McLaurin (WR), Wsh over Jayden Reed (WR), GB, and Xavier Worthy (WR), KC, for 3.6 and 3.7 fantasy points versus 33.10 and 20.80 fantasy points respectively. I mean - OUCH!!!
Do you see my point? I'm seeing similar results across all my leagues. If this happened to you, it isn't your fault and you shouldn't panic. Some of this is an anomaly and some the new norm for 2024, but we won't be able to get a realistic viewpoint for at least a few more weeks.
Now in my dynasty league, my starting lineup was estimated to score only 130.27 fantasy points versus my opponent's 141.33 fantasy points.
He had the highest pre-game estimate in the league. In our league, the divisions are arranged so that the top four teams from last year are in the first division and the bottom four teams from last year are in the third division. Therefore I must play the other top-4 teams twice during the year. To make a playoff berth, my team has to be considerably better than average. In fact, historically I must average about 140 fantasy points per week (not including bye weeks) to make the playoffs. To that end, naturally I was in a bit of a panic thinking that my team wasn't going to be good enough. Clearly I've been out thinking myself, as the next two weeks I have what I believe to be an easy schedule, and even though it is way too early, I've found myself somewhat anxious anyway.
So what did I do? I offered my opponent an above value trade offer for Amon-Ra St. Brown.
Fortunately, my opponent rejected my offer. St. Brown might bounce back next week and be the stud that we all expect him to be, or there could be something going on. We won't really know for a few weeks.
And guess what? My team bounced back from the abyss. At one point the win probability calculator had estimated my team to have only a 1% chance to win. After Sunday night, my team is now the odds-on favorite:
It's far from a sure thing, but I just need Deebo Samuel (WR), SF, to score 13 or more fantasy points. That's reasonably within the realm of possibility.
So here's my point...
Top-valued players at the beginning of Week 1 are never under-valued. They might be fairly-valued or over-valued, but never under-valued.
That means trades for top-valued players prior to Week 1 never have upside, only down side. Would you play a game that you only knew you could draw or lose, but never win? That is what you are doing if you trade for top-valued players prior to Week 1.
Also, until the NFL season is more underway, we really don't know our team's needs or where we stand with respect to the rest of our fantasy league. It is better to let things settle out before trading for top-valued players. Make sure the player really is solid, and make sure you are filling a real need for your team based on real data, not pre-Week 1 estimates.
However, it's okay to trade for mid to lower valued players that you believe have upside prior to Week 1 if you pay consensus value or less. This way you can win or draw, but won't suffer a great value loss should the trade not work in your favor. I had to slim down my roster prior to Week 1, so I traded away Issac Guerendo (RB), SF, for a future 3rd round pick. I didn't want to trade him, but I had to let go of two players due to a roster crunch. In this case, I believe the other owner was wise to make that trade with me. (He happens to be the owner of the team that beat me in the championship game last year, so it's not surprising I believe he made a smart trade.)
So to summarize, what I learned from Week 1:
- Don't panic if you made poor start/sit decisions. So did almost everyone else because Week 1 has a lot more random performances compared to expectations. Expect things to settle out as the NFL season goes along.
- Don't trade for high-valued players prior to Week 1 or even after the first two or three weeks into the season. Again, patience is key, and you need to know your real team needs so you have a greater chance of getting the value you believe you traded for with less of a chance of being burned.
- It's okay to trade for mid to low valued players that you believe have upside early in the year if you don't pay a lot to acquire them. In this case, you have more upside than downside, so go for it.
Wishing you a great Week 2!
