It’s Thanksgiving already, and we’re down to the final few weeks of fantasy football before the playoffs. If you’re still reading these articles, the season must be going pretty well. Once again it was a pretty good week across the board. No teams dropped 40 points or anything, but only four teams scored less than 23 points. Three more weeks of heart-pounding football and the race to the playoffs, where we know everything goes out the window. Let’s set those lineups and get another crucial victory.
Starts
QB – Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (@ TEN)
In these last important weeks, you can’t afford a dud, especially from your QB position. If you’re streaming QBs and need a high floor, Trevor Lawrence is available in about 70% of leagues. He has been rather consistent as well, with 14 or more fantasy points in six of his last seven games.
He’s coming off a week where he was all over the place: 256 passing yards and 3 TDs. He also turned the ball over 4 times, yet it was still a productive day from a fantasy perspective. In his last 4 games he has thrown for 5 TDs and run for another 3. The turnovers have capped his ceiling, but that shouldn’t be much of a problem this week against a Titans defense that only has 5 interceptions on the year.
Expect around 200 yards and 2 TDs from Lawrence as a baseline. If you need a safe QB, he’s your guy.
RB – RJ Harvey, Denver Broncos (@ WSH)
After all the preseason hype, it has been a rather disappointing season for the rookie RJ Harvey. He has had a couple of boom games, including the best game of his career against Dallas where he scored three touchdowns. The downs have been bad though, with less than 15 rushing yards in 6 of his 11 games this year.
With fellow RB J.K. Dobbins likely out for the year, this is the game where Harvey should take over. He’s up against a Washington team that has lost six straight games. They have not been able to stop the run against opposing RBs, allowing over 1,500 yards and 10 TDs through just 11 games this year.
If Jayden Daniels is still out, expect the Broncos to be up early and to pound the rock. Harvey is a solid RB2 this week.
WR – Khalil Shakir, Buffalo Bills (@ PIT)
After a dismal performance in Week 11 against Tampa Bay where he only had 1 catch for -3 yards, Khalil Shakir had a great bounce-back game. Matched up against a top-three defense against WRs this year, Shakir racked up 8 catches for 110 yards.
Shakir has been an under-the-radar stud this year in PPR leagues. Week 12 was his first game over 100 yards, but he’s had 6 or more catches in 4 of his last 5 games. He should continue that trend this week against the Pittsburgh Steelers, a defense that is bottom-three against WRs in fantasy this season. They’ve also given up the second-most passing yards in the league this year.
Look for Shakir to have another game with 6+ catches, and make sure you have him starting.
TE – Juwan Johnson, New Orleans Saints (@ MIA)
Juwan Johnson has once again been an under-the-radar steady hand at the TE position. He’s now gone over 500 yards in consecutive seasons. He’s available in over 50% of leagues, which is surprising because he is currently a top-10 TE in fantasy for the year.
Since his dud game in Week 6, it has been nothing but consistency for Johnson. In his last 5 games he’s grabbed 23 catches on 30 targets for 301 yards and 2 TDs. That’s must-start TE production. If he wasn’t in a Saints uniform, he’d be getting more buzz.
He’s got a great matchup this week as well against the Dolphins, who are 29th against TEs this season. Johnson will have another week inside the top 10. Pick him up—he’s available.
Defense – San Francisco 49ers (@ CLE)
When streaming defenses, you can’t only look at yearly rankings. The 49ers are a bottom-five defense in fantasy this season, but this is just too good of a matchup not to play them.
There’s a lot of noise around Shedeur Sanders becoming the official starter after getting his first win against the Raiders last week. Yes, they won, but was it a good offensive performance? Definitely not. Against one of the worst defenses in the league, they still only had 64 rushing yards on 27 attempts and completed just 11 passes.
The 49ers are coming off one of their best defensive performances of the year, holding the Panthers to just 9 points in Week 12. Expect the 49ers to play aggressive against the young rookie QB. They’ll be a top-10 unit this week.
Sits
QB – Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (@ CLE)
If you watched the Monday night game against the Panthers, you could see Brock Purdy failed the eye test. He’s simply not a QB you can trust in your playoff run right now. He made some really bad telegraphed passes, leading to 3 first-half interceptions in his second game back from injury.
It hasn’t been all bad this year; in his four starts Purdy has thrown 8 TDs. The problem is he’s paired that with 8 turnovers. It won’t get better this week. He’s playing a Browns defense that has 15 takeaways on the year and a whopping 42 sacks, which is second in the NFL.
Don’t let his projections fool you into starting him. Better options are available.
RB – David Montgomery, Detroit Lions (vs GB)
A couple of weeks ago David Montgomery made the start list due to his usage. The Lions have been doing RB by committee for years now, but they’ve realized something: Jahmyr Gibbs is simply too good not to have on the field the majority of the game.
Through the first 9 games of the year, Montgomery was averaging 12 carries a game, plus a few catches. In the last 2 weeks he’s combined for just 11 carries for 45 yards. With Gibbs running for over 200 yards on 15 carries in Week 12, expect the Lions to give him the rock more and more.
I expect Montgomery to be on the field mostly to give Gibbs a breather. He is simply no longer startable.
WR – Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis Colts (vs HOU)
It has been a great year for Michael Pittman. A great year doesn’t automatically mean he’s a must-start on a weekly basis. He was on a tear from Weeks 3–9 with some favorable matchups against teams like the Titans, Raiders, and Steelers.
Now, in his last 2 games against better defenses (the Chiefs and the Falcons), he’s had a combined 7 catches for 46 yards. I don’t see it getting better this week. He’s up against the Texans, who have been nothing short of stifling against the pass this season—allowing just 173 passing yards per game, along with only 10 passing TDs in 11 games.
It has been a great year for Pittman, but he’ll be outside the top 20 WRs this week. Keep him sidelined.
TE – Dallas Goedert, Philadelphia Eagles (@ CHI)
Through the first eight weeks of the season, Dallas Goedert was in serious contention for best TE in fantasy football. He only surpassed 50 yards once, but he had 7 TDs in 7 games played. Then the bye week happened, along with the constant talk about star WR A.J. Brown not getting the ball enough.
Now, in the last 3 games, Goedert has a combined 8 catches for 87 yards. Not only are his TDs gone, but his target share has diminished as well—he’s been targeted just 17 times in his last 5 games.
It was a nice hot streak, but the Eagles are a running team and have two WRs making over $25 million a year they need to feed. Goedert is TD-dependent now, and that can’t be relied on.
Defense – Buffalo Bills (@ PIT)
Some defenses are owned in fantasy just because they’ve been good in previous years. The Bills are owned in over 50% of leagues even though they are the 17th-ranked fantasy defense on the year. They have not been good of late despite some solid matchups.
In their last three games, they’ve allowed a combined 85 points. They did get 4 takeaways during that time, but with only 1 sack over that three-game stretch, it really doesn’t balance out.
What they have done well is stop the pass. They have allowed the fewest passing yards in the NFL. The problem is they’ve given up 1,638 rushing yards on the year, third-most in the league. They’ve also allowed 17 rushing TDs, which is a league high.
Yes, they can stop the pass. That doesn’t mean they should be in lineups.
