"May the (Vegas) Odds be Ever in your Favor: Super Bowl Futures Revisited", says ASL's Ben Muell.

By taking a look at how the lines have changed since July 1st we can get a sense of how the “market” of football fans thinks each team will finish this season.

First, for a quick recap of Vegas’ approach as well as what we can generally glean from the setting of Super Bowl Futures read my previous article, Tips from Vegas about Fantasy Football

The Takeaways

After evaluating the changes since July 1st here are my five takeaways:

  • The overall “juice” decreased from 130.08 % to 127.74%. Meaning these odds are slightly truer reflections than what we saw in July. Which makes sense with more time and information available to us.
  • Only 8 teams saw increases in their odds to win the Super Bowl. 
  • AFC teams have a slight edge over the NFC teams (65.10% v. 62.64%)
  • 5 teams are still floating around the "sweet spot" number of +1400
  • Most of all what I think these number do for fantasy football owners is confirm which players we want to bet on.  Sure the Buffalo Bills Josh Allen can be the number one QB each week but wouldn't you rather bet on a guys like Carson Wentz and the Eagles for a full season.

The Favs… 

Team

Odds

(July 1, 2019)

Implied Probability

(July 1, 2019)

Odds

(Aug. 20, 2019)

Implied Probability

(Aug. 21, 2019)

New England Patriots

+693

12.62%

+670

12.99% ⬆ 0.37%

Kansas City Chiefs

+790

11.24%

+731

12.04% ⬆ 0.80%

New Orleans Saints

+853

10.49%

+866

10.36% ⬇ 0.13%

Los Angeles Rams

+890

10.10%

+997

9.11%   ⬇ 0.99%


  • Patriots and Chiefs are the favorites of the favorites. Nothing new here.
  • The Chiefs had the second highest jump (+0.80%) in their Implied Probability to win the Super Bowl. Everyone is buying into Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid getting it done.
  • Fan and odds makers still think the Saints are pretty good but they will face tougher competition from within the NFC South as we’ll see later.
  • The Rams got knocked down about a full point in their Implied Probably. Are people really that concerned about Todd Gurley's ailing knee?

The Sweet Spot...

Team

Odds

(July 1, 2019)

Implied Probability

(July 1, 2019)

Odds

(Aug. 20, 2019)

Implied Probability

(Aug. 21, 2019)

Indianapolis Colts

+1353

6.88%

+1356

6.78% ⬇ 0.10%

Chicago Bears

+1372

6.79%

+1499

6.25% ⬇ 0.54%

Los Angeles Chargers

+1400

6.67%

+1454

6.44% ⬇ 0.23%

Cleveland Browns

+1417

6.59%

+1408

6.63% ⬆ 0.04%

Philadelphia Eagles

+1524

6.16%

+1271

7.29% ⬆ 1.13%

Green Bay Packers

+1793)

5.28%

+1978

4.81% ⬇ 0.47%


  • The odds have dropped on Chicago. It's well known that they have the most money wagered on them. This change might have more to do with oddsmakers hedging than a decrease in their actually chances of winning.
  • The Eagles had the largest jump of any team to win the Super Bowl (1.13%). For a team that was just there 2 season ago this seems to make sense. Coincidentally, and I have no idea if this means anything, the Eagles' jump was just about the same as the combined jump the Chiefs and Patriots saw (1.17%).
  • Green Bay, as a public team (a team that a lot of people bet on), might have experienced the same adjustment that Chicago saw -- with oddsmakers protecting themselves. After all Aaron Rodgers hasn’t even played yet.
  • Lastly, Melvin Gordon’s holdout dropped the Chargers odds only a bit. Could this possibly be protection from future bets? The Bolts should be pretty good and are notorious for fast starts, so more money could be inline to be wagered on them. Or confirming that Melvin is necessary to their success.

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The Hedges & Leans...

Team

Odds

(July 1, 2019)

Implied Probability

(July 1, 2019)

Odds

(Aug. 20, 2019)

Implied Probability

(Aug. 21, 2019)

Pittsburgh Steelers

+2121

4.50%

+2217

4.32% ⬇ 0.18%

Dallas Cowboys

+2357

4.07%

+2150

4.44% ⬆ 0.37%

Minnesota Vikings 

+2566

3.75%

+2525

3.81% ⬆ 0.06%

Seattle Seahawks

+2884

3.35%

+3184

3.05% ⬇ 0.20%

Atlanta Falcons 

+3136

3.09%

+2956

3.27% ⬆ 0.18%

Houston Texans 

+3181

3.05%

+3400

2.86% ⬇ 0.19%

Jacksonville Jaguars

+3450

2.82%

+3802

2.52% ⬇ 0.30%

Baltimore Ravens

+3514

2.77%

+3578

2.72% ⬇ 0.05%

  • Even with Ezekiel Elliott holding out the Cowboys’ odds have increased. "In Dak We Trust"?
  • Of these eight middle of the road teams the increases in Super Bowl odds belong only to NFC teams indicating a tougher path for those teams as well as an open field vs. the top heavy AFC.
  • Atlanta’s odds jumped a little so it looks like folks think the NFC South is going to be a tough division. I still find their odds kind of low for a team with so many weapons and an improved defensive unit.

The Wild Cards...

Team

Odds

(July 1, 2019)

Implied Probability

(July 1, 2019)

Odds

(Aug. 20, 2019)

Implied Probability

(Aug. 21, 2019)

San Francisco 49ers

+3136

3.09%

+3239

3.00% ⬇ 0.09%

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 

+7014

1.41%

+8122

1.22% ⬇ 0.19%


  • Not much of a change for the “wild cards”. All these guys game boom and bust from week to week, so we'll see.

The Bad...

Team

Odds

(July 1, 2019)

Implied Probability

(July 1, 2019)

Odds

(Aug. 20, 2019)

Implied Probability

(Aug. 21, 2019)

Carolina Panthers

+4811

2.04%

+4143

2.36% ⬆ 0.32%

Oakland Raiders

+6132

1.60%

+7633

1.29% ⬇ 0.31%

Tennessee Titans

+6486

1.52%

+7389

1.34% ⬇ 0.18%

Denver Broncos

+6577

1.50%

+7922

1.25% ⬇ 0.25%

New York Jets

+7109

1.39%

+7089

1.39% ⬌ No Change

New York Giants

+7473

1.32%

+10456

0.95% ⬇ 0.37%

Detroit Lions

+8291

1.19%

+8889

1.11% ⬇ 0.09%

Buffalo Bills

+8736

1.13%

+8789

1.13% ⬌ No Change

Arizona Cardinals

+8955

1.10%

+12056

0.82% ⬇ 0.28%

Washington Redskins

+9409

1.05%

+12667

0.78% ⬇ 0.27%

Cincinnati Bengals

+11045

0.90%

+13056

0.76% ⬇ 0.14%

Miami Dolphins

+16045

0.62%

+18611

0.53% ⬇ 0.09%


  • Sorry, there’s still no faith in any of these teams winning the Super Bowl. Vegas thinks collectively that these 13 teams have just a slightly better chance at winning it all (14.92%) than the Patriots (12.99%)
  • But, the Panthers are trending slightly upwards. Maybe this was an appropriate correction since we didn’t know the status of Cam Newton’s shoulder. Perhaps Carolina should be moved into “The Wildcard” tier?

Questions, comments, suggestions, and other feedback on this piece are always welcome. Follow me on twitter @b_muell for takes on my mildly depressing Skins, Caps, Terps, and O's as well as funny memes.