Written by Daniel Brown
27 April 2017
Mock drafts are meant to be taken lightly and generate discussion. They attempt to consider team needs, available players and possible trades. They are not meant to represent an exact forecast. So while we hope to predict picks, we realize that trades can greatly impact the draft selections. The following analysis does not specifically look at dynasty leagues that include individual defensive players (IDP).
NFL Mock Draft – 1st Round
- Cleveland – Myles Garrett (DE/OLB – Texas A&M) Has IDP value, but in all other leagues defensive impact is very minimal (overall DEF would be improved as a result of this selection). He appears to be clear cut class of the draft and while Cleveland needs a franchise QB, without a consensus QB in this draft it’s hard to imagine the “numbers” team in the front office pass on Garett here.
- San Francisco – Soloman Thomas (DE – Stanford) A lot of discussion about possibly trading for Kirk Cousins, although that seems unlikely, it’s hard to imagine San Francisco giving up their first, even if they somehow got Washington’s first (#17), although if they could do that a trade here would make sense. Can’t see Washington doing that deal so San Francisco go defense. Slight improvement on overall DEF.
- Chicago – Jonathan Allen (DE – Alabama) This would be a great pick to trade given the needs of this team, however it seems unlikely that any team will be willing to pay the price they would need and so they go best available player in Allen. Slight improvement on overall DEF.
- Jacksonville – O J Howard (TE – Alabama) Having traded away Julius Thomas in the offseason there is a need at TE and Howard is a huge talent and a big red zone target. This would be a really good landing spot for Howard given the talent at wide receiver, and while an argument could be made for a RB here, the Jaguars fill their need at TE and hope that their RB corps can do enough to help Blake Bortles this year.
- Tennessee – Corey Davis (WR – Western Michigan) The Titans are a team that could easily look to trade down here, the question is whether a team would come up to leap ahead of the Jets and Chargers. The most likely option, based on need, would be Cleveland, however as mentioned above the “numbers” team probably wouldn’t see the value in making that move and likely will take their chances at # 12 or roll the dice with Brock Osweiler and if needed go QB next year. So without a trade partner, the Titans address a need at WR to give another target for Marcus Mariota. This would be a great landing spot for Davis and if he ends up here it will solidify his spot towards the top of the dynasty draft boards.
- New York Jets – Mitch Trubisky (QB – Northern Carolina) The Jets fix their glaring need at QB and select Trubisky here. This won’t likely have any impact on the fantasy rankings of Trubisky in dynasty leagues and he won’t be a high priority in re-draft leagues either.
- Los Angeles Chargers – Jamal Adams (S – LSU) Chargers have a need at WR and S and so while it’s possible that they go with best wide receiver available we think they address the secondary. This would be a good pick to trade back, but assuming they can’t find a partner, Adams would be good value at this spot. No real impact from a fantasy football perspective.
- Carolina – Dalvin Cook (RB – FSU) Cook has potential to be a big time fantasy asset, however landing here would limit his upside a little in year 1 but longer term it would be a good fit for him.
- Cincinnati – Mike Williams (WR – Clemson) The Bengals need help at WR to take the pressure off AJ Green. Tyler Boyd was selected with that goal in mind, and while he came on reasonably well at the end of the season he doesn’t appear to be the answer at this point and with Williams on the board it would be hard to pass on him at this point of the draft. He would have immediate dynasty value and would be a late round target in most re-draft leagues.
- ***Trade Alert*** Arizona (trade from Buffalo) – DeShaun Watson (QB – Clemson) The Bills have a need in the secondary and WR, so they trade back 4 spots. Arizona see a chance to jump in front of Cleveland for a cheap-ish price and grab the QB of the future to replace Carson Palmer. Watson landing in Arizona would have good dynasty implications and potentially put him as the top QB to go off the board in Dynasty leagues, however it would relegate him to a late round flyer or waiver wire target (should Palmer go down) in re-draft leagues.
- New Orleans – Marshon Lattimore (CB – Ohio State) The Saints have secondary needs and we expect a lot of CB activity in the first round of the draft, and so while the Saints would probably like to trade down to acquire more picks, they would be well served to get their defensive help here. No real impact from a fantasy football perspective.
- Cleveland – Malik Hooker (S – Ohio State) Cleveland need help in the secondary, and with both QBs that they would consider being off the board, we anticipate them taking Hooker here. No real impact from a fantasy football perspective.
- Buffalo (trade with Arizona) – Marlon Humphre (CB – Alabama) No real impact from a fantasy football perspective.
- Philadelphia – Leonard Fournette (RB – LSU) Philly would likely rush this pick up to the stage if Fournette drops to them here. Although they have Ryan Mathews, they showed last year that it was more a running back by committee approach, however having a big back like Fournette would be a great compliment to Wentz and likely aid in his continued development. In addition this would represent a great spot for Fournette as he would likely take over the back field during the season if not very early on.
- Indianapolis – Malik McDowell (DT – Michigan State) No real impact from a fantasy football perspective.
- Baltimore – John Ross (WR – Washington) Ross flew at the combine, and while he recently underwent surgery for a lingering issue, it is not expected to impact his availability for camp. The Ravens were hoping Breshad Perriman would be the answer at WR however he has not produced to date. While they have a need at RB it seems like they would add a speedster to give Joe Flacco a downfield threat. This would be a good landing spot for Ross from a dynasty perspective, and he could end up being a sleeper in re-draft leagues with this landing spot.
- Washington – Derek Barnett (DE – Tennessee) No real impact from a fantasy football perspective.
- ***Trade Alert*** Detroit (from Tennessee) – Reuben Foster (LB – Alabama) No real impact from a fantasy football perspective.
- Tampa Bay– Christian McCaffrey (RB – Stanford) McCaffrey’s slide ends here with Tampa Bay who need a solid RB to fill in early for Doug Martin while serving his suspension, and then McCaffrey would be an interesting project over the next couple of years giving Tampa Bay options at RB when it comes to Doug Martin’s future with the team. If they don’t take a RB it’s likely they go defense. This landing spot would actually be good from a dynasty perspective, as it would give a potential starter for the early part of the season and then be a probably hold while Tampa determines the role for him. Longer term there is a huge upside for this guy, especially as Jameis Winston continues his development and with Mike Evans and Desean Jackson on the outside there would be a big role for a check down so PPR leagues would see a bump in McCaffrey’s value.
- Denver – Garett Bolles (OT – Utah) No real impact from a fantasy football perspective.
- Tennessee (trade with Detroit) – Sidney Jones (CB – Washington) No real impact from a fantasy football perspective.
- Miami – Forrest Lamp (G – Western Kentucky) No real impact from a fantasy football perspective, a slight boost for Ryan Tannehill.
- New York Giants – Ryan Rameczyk (OT – Wisconsin) No real impact from a fantasy football perspective.
- Oakland – Kevin King (CB – Washington) No real impact from a fantasy football perspective.
- Houston – Patrick Mahomes (QB – Texas Tech) If Mahomes ends up in Houston, he would become a dynasty sleeper pick given the lack of immediate competition for a starting spot, however he is still a project but certainly would be a target for a QB needy dynasty team.
- Seattle – Taco Charlton (DE – Michigan) No real impact from a fantasy football perspective.
- Kansas City – Haason Reddick (LB – Temple) No real impact from a fantasy football perspective.
- Dallas – Jabrill Peppers (S/LB – Michigan) No real impact from a fantasy football perspective.
- Green Bay – Adoree Jackson (CB – USC) No real impact from a fantasy football perspective.
- Pittsburgh – David Njoku (TE – Miami) This would be a great landing spot and make him fantasy relevant in both Dynasty and re-draft leagues. With the weapons that Pittsburgh has there is a risk of limited targets, however he should be a red-zone target. His dynasty value would depend largely on Ben Roethlisberger's ability and what Pittsburgh ultimately do long term at QB, however either way we like this landing spots.
- Atlanta – Takk McKinley (LB/DE – UCLA) No real impact from a fantasy football perspective.
- New Orleans – Charles Harris (DE – Missouri) No real impact from a fantasy football perspective.
See something above that you completely disagree with? Would love to see your comments below with your take on specific selections.