How Coaching and Player Environment Affects Fantasy Points
How can the last pick in the 2023 NFL draft (Brock Purdy) outplay and outperform (from a fantasy value) the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL draft (Bryce Young)?
The Answer: Coaching!!
Honestly, Bryce Young is more talented than Brock Purdy—that’s why he was drafted seven rounds earlier—but success in the NFL relies on more than just talent, including elements like:
-upper management competency
-the quality of coaching staff
- Number of playmakers on both sides of the ball.
These (and other) factors help play a vital role in the success (or bust) of QB Talent.
Case in point: The San Francisco 49ers provide their 7th-round pick with a talented roster paired with the consistency of Kyle Shanahan and his excellent coaching staff (the conveyor belt of Head Coaches). These factors help Brock Purdy put up fantasy points week in and week out.
In contrast: The Carolina Panthers have saddled their number one overall pick with ineffective coaching, questionable offensive talent, and a coaching staff so bad chief of staff Frank Reich was let go after a 1-10 start. This dysfunction has been an early hindrance to Bryce Young and so far has negatively impacted his on-field performance.
With this in mind and using the chart above as a guide, let’s evaluate which QBs are boosted by strong coaching to reach their maximum fantasy value and which are held back, thereby negatively impacting their fantasy scores.
Mid-Round Picks On Good Teams
Kirk Cousins (RD 4)
Geno Smith (RD 2)
Dak Prescott (RD 4)
The above talent benefits from being on competent teams that draft and recruit well on both sides of the ball, as they can achieve average to above-average results with their current coaching staffs. However, there are negatives to take into consideration.
The Minnesota Vikings moved off Kirk Cousins because he is good but not great. Cousins' new team (Atlanta Falcons) decided to draft a rookie QB in the first round due to the very same reasons. His play is good enough to get you into the playoffs but never competitive enough to win a Superbowl. This is commonly referred to as the glass ceiling of adequate QB play. True contenders will seek to break through this glass ceiling by acquiring a new QB with greater potential even if it means having a lower floor at the current state.
This conundrum is currently where both the Dallas Cowboys and Seattle Seahawks find themselves. They boast QB’s good enough to win regular season games but questionable when it comes playoff time. Despite this, those concerns are for upper management, as for the everyday fan these QBs are a steady and consistent source of Fantasy points. Cowboys Coach Mike McCarthy has always been able to provide a functional, reliable, and productive offense throughout his career. Additionally, former Seattle coach Pete Carroll was known for his tough defenses and hard-nosed running game to help compliment his QBs.
With this in mind, all three of these QBs face questionable situations for this upcoming season, such as:
How long until Kirk Cousins is usurped as the starter?
Has Dak Prescott hit the glass ceiling?
What are Geno Smith's numbers outside Pete Carroll’s system?
These factors should alert fantasy owners to consider other quarterbacks.
1st Round Picks
Patrick Mahomes
Matthew Stafford
These QBs are talented and productive and have proven themselves in playoff environments. Their stellar play justifies their draft position. They've shown the ability time and time again to transcend the talent around them and deliver unexpected results.
Only injuries threaten them from providing high fantasy points week in and week out. These are some of the best-coached QBs on the list, surrounded with talent on both sides of the ball and rarely off their game. They project as reliable fantasy QBs week In and week out.
On The Fringes
Trevor Lawrence
Derek Carr
Jared Goff
At the beginning of this article we established that talent alone can only take you so far. The three QB’s listed above are some of the most precise and accurate throwers in the league but are held back by questionable team situations.
Jared Goff is the best example here. Goff's level of play is tied to the quality of his current team. On the right team with enough support and a quality coaching staff, Goff can deliver results. However if he doesn't have those things Goff tends to lead teams to the top of the draft.
Trevor Lawrence and Derek Carr are in “prove it seasons”, as they need to show they can transcend the average talent around them and deliver results. This makes them interesting fantasy pick-ups their results each week will most likely depend on their individual performances. This can overwhelm some (Jared Goff) but bring the best out in others (Patrick Mahomes).
New Coaching Staffs
Justin Herbert
Russell Wilson
For these two, a new team situation can lead to an entirely different performance.
Justin Herbert's talent is undeniable but the support he has received from the Chargers was inadequate. The arrival of college football champion Jim Harbaugh could be the springboard he needs to break through the glass ceiling. Herbert is as talented as any other QB in the NFL. To that end, one can now expect his fantasy points to match up with the best of them week in and week out under the excellent coaching of Harbaugh.
In contrast, Russell Wilson's play level is in question. A shaky end to his time with the Seattle Seahawks followed by a disastrous one-season stint with the Denver Broncos has resulted in many people questioning his fantasy value. However, a new team situation could be a return to the fantasy monster of years ago, as Wilson is still an expert in two special fantasy traits:
A. He Excels with the deep ball
B. He engineers many comeback wins.
Should he continue to exhibit these, a solid season could put him back on the fantasy radar. On the flip side, a terrible year could all but rubber-stamp his sudden and unexpected decline into being a backup only a few years after lighting up fantasy scoreboards week in and week out.
Runners
Jalen Hurts
Lamar Jackson
Josh Allen
A new and unexpected trend has emerged n the fantasy points system. The sure-fire running QB. Whether the team wins or not, these QBs will put up huge fantasy points due to their dual-threat abilities.
Hurts, Jackson, or Allen carry a huge offensive burden week in and week out. These QBs possess a decisive advantage over the traditional QB (Jared Goff) in that when the passing game isn't working they can pick up the team's offensive burden with their legs and bear the brunt of moving the team down the field themselves. Taking vicious tackle after nasty hit, down after down they consistently rack up fantasy points.
Due to their dual-threat ability, It's becoming nearly impossible for them to post a bad fantasy week. The only concern is their injury record. Otherwise, expect lots of fantasy points.
Saddled With Bad Coaching
Kyler Murray
Bryce Young
Justin Fields
If Murray was a foot taller he would be in the above list but his small frame and injury record have saddled him year after year. To that end, Kyler cannot be trusted to carry his offense the whole season.
Bryce Young is an even less mobile version of Kyler Murray. A terrible rookie year showcased his need for surrounding talent in order to see his best.
Justin Fields holds an 11-29 win-loss record. The question of whether or not this is due to poor play from him or a poor coaching staff will be answered this year. Fields, who is one of the NFL’s deadliest runners when he gets going, has every chance to join the above group (Jackson, Allen, or Hurts) or end up as a gadget player who can be a steady backup, ala Taysom Hill.
Just Out Of Time/Modern Back-Up’s
Kenny Pickett
Mac Jones
Sam Howell
Unfortunately, this isn't 2005. An immobile QB now must have laser-like precision and accuracy to justify starting on the field. The above talent have had plenty of opportunities to distinguish themselves and failed on multiple occasions. A tendency for inaccuracies and an inability to showcase themselves as playmakers has landed them as seemingly career backups who can steady the ship for a time until adequate talent is found, after which time they are replaceable.
The ironic twist is that all of these QBs had the following:
Great upper management
Quality coaching
Playmakers on both sides of the ball
Yet Pickett, Jones, and Howell failed to deliver results (or worse, fantasy points). These are old-fashioned game managers playing in a time when that style is not necessary. With the college game full of sure-fire runners who can simultaneously carry the offense and pick up the fantasy burden, these QB’s are behind the times, making them fantasy duds when the passing game is off.
Having a dual-threat quarterback isn't a necessity for winning a Super Bowl, but it undoubtedly makes a difference in fantasy football. To that end, as we enter into the 2024 season, the highest-drafted quarterbacks in fantasy football leagues will continue to be the signal callers who can throw + run for touchdowns.
