For me, without a doubt, game script is the most important factor for a DFS player to consider when constructing multiple lineups for a specific FanDuel NFL showdown (single game) slate. How do I ascertain what the game script might look like for a single game contest? Before I answer that question, let’s take a look at my definition of the word game script.
For me, the term game script refers to the following: each individual football game has a distinct pattern as the game progresses. For example, one team may lead for most of the game or conversely one team may find themselves down behind by three touchdowns at the end of the first quarter. In summary, the term game script refers to the scoring difference between two teams at any point in a football game.
Now that we have defined game script, let's shift our focus to how game script translates to lineup construction as we take a quick look at the rules for a single game contest. The rules for the FanDuel single game contest are rather simple. You have $60,000 to utilize on five players from either team. However, one of those players will be designated as your team MVP. The FanDuel MVP accumulates 1.5 times the standard FanDuel points value.
The remaining four players in your lineup will receive the standard FanDuel points value. Having stated that, it is highly important for you to identify the correct player for your MVP position if you hope to win a FanDuel single game contest.
What did we learn from the rules just presented relative to the game script? I learned that it is highly important for the DFS player to identify the football players on any given single game slate that have the most upside with regard to overall fantasy points. Remember, the MVP obtains 1.5 times the standard FanDuel points.
Now that we have reviewed the rules for the FanDuel single game slate rules let's evaluate a specific slate between the Dallas Cowboys and the San Francisco 49ers. Ok, let's determine who the likely MVP candidates could be for this contest. For me, three names for potential MVP candidates pop off my computer screen. The names I am making reference to are Christian McCaffrey, Tony Pollard, and George Kittle.
Christian McCaffrey is frankly a monster when it comes to his involvement in the San Francisco offense relative to his production. In his last three games played, Christian McCaffrey has carried the football 58 times, accumulated 307 rushing yards, and added six rushing touchdowns. If that is not impressive enough, Christian McCaffrey has been a very effective pass catcher by accumulating 15 receptions in the same three game span noted above.
Tony Pollard has certainly embraced the opportunity that the Dallas Cowboys presented to him when Ezekiel Elliott departed the team via free agency in the offseason. In his last three games played, Tony Pollard accumulated 59 carries that resulted in 241 rushing yards. Clearly, Pollard is a big part of this Dallas Cowboys offensive scheme.
49ers tight end George Kittle is also a very attractive MVP candidate. The reason being is that the Dallas Cowboys have struggled to defend the tight end position this season. The Cowboys enter this week’s contest as the 20th ranked team in the NFL in overall fantasy points allowed to the tight end position.
Now that we have identified my top MVP candidates let’s take a quick look at my opinion regarding the game script for this game. I would predict a final score of San Francisco 27, Dallas 23. That score just noted tells me that both offenses will have some offensive success in this football game. For that reason, I think my flex player candidates need to be a good mix of the top skill players on offense from both teams.
With our game script determined let's utilize the ASL optimizer to construct 100 lineups for a large field 150 max GPP (guaranteed prize pool) contest with $0.05 lineups. I have presented a screen shot below of the ASL optimizer main screen below:
This is my starting point. You can clearly see from the illustration noted here that it is quite simple to lock or exclude players in Flex or MVP at your discretion. To the left of each player’s name is an option to lock or exclude players.
My next step in my process of using the ASL optimizer is access the Set Pro Options tab. The image above shows the Set Pro Options tab is on the top left corner:
I have provided a closer view of the Set Pro Options in the illustration below:
Once I have clicked on the Set Pro Options tab I am presented with the following:
Full disclosure, the Set Pro Options is by far my favorite tool provided with the ASL optimizer. The Diversity tab presented above allows the user to better differentiate a lineup from others by utilizing a scale from 1-100. As you can see above, I noted a 40 for overall diversity for my build.
Next up I focus on my exposure to MVP plays in the screen shot below. The right column advises the user how the overall ownership percentage is for the contest. In this instance, I wanted to ensure that I did not have too much exposure at captain for two specific players (McCaffrey, Purdy):
Finally, now that I have entered the data, I request the optimizer to provide 100 lineups. The ASL optimizer allows you to enter a large number of lineups (up to 150) at one time with ease via a CSV. In this instance, I obtained the 100 lineups via a CSV and accessed the FanDuel site. I entered the CSV and now I am ready to watch the game!
Well, here we are a day later. How did my lineups do? Let’s take a look at an illustration below of how my top lineups performed in this large field 150 max entry GPP:
As you can see above, my pre-game take on the game script was not fully accurate, but it was good enough to give me to break even with my entry fee of $5.00. The final score of the game was San Francisco 42, Dallas 10. Brock Purdy was a surgeon carving up the Cowboys on his way to four touchdown passes. My belief that George Kittle would perform well did come to fruition. Kittle had a career night by accumulating three touchdown receptions.
I should note that I had one lineup in seventh with three minutes left in the game. Unfortunately, that lineup would fall back to 649th. Considering the fact over 20,000 entries were entered into the contest that is not bad!
In conclusion, I think it is vital that every DFS player have a plan of action when attacking any large field GPP contest. Good luck!