When it comes to building a dominant dynasty team, identifying young talents with immense potential is paramount. Buying in on WRs in their 2nd or 3rd year in the NFL is a great way to have a long-term dynasty asset and help your team win a championship.
In previous articles, we discussed other WRs taken in the late rounds of the 2022 NFL draft, and we’re finishing up our series where we’re going to evaluate each WR taken to see if they are worth a stash on your Dynasty Fantasy Football roster. We’re working our way up from the bottom rounds of the draft to the top.
As we prepare for the upcoming season, today we’re going to take a look at all of the WRs that were drafted in the 1st round of the 2022 NFL draft. All of these players will be worth a spot on your roster, so we’re going to do a deeper dive on each one and look at their potential for the upcoming season.
Treylon Burks, Jahan Dotson, Jameson Williams, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and Drake London are each in a unique situation but could help your team in different ways.
Treylon Burks, Arkansas | Tennessee Titans (Round 1: Pick 18)
Before we delve into why Burks is poised for a breakout, let's scrutinize some of his advanced stats from the 2022 season. These metrics provide a window into his potential impact in the fantasy realm:
- Targets: 54
- Target Share: 17.6%
- Target Rate: 23.8%
- Snap Share: 59%
- Routes Run: 227
- Route Participation: 70.2%
- Air Yards: 658
- aDot: 12.2
- Receptions: 33
- Receiving Yards: 444
- TDs: 2
- Yards Per Route Run: 1.96
Fantasy Outlook: His rookie season was….ok, but not great. He only played in 11 games due to injury, and 54 targets are generally below our acceptable threshold for rookie WR greatness (we like to see at least 60). Despite this, his 17.6% target share and 23.8% target rate were both solid, with the higher target rate a potential indicator of greatness. He also ran 227 routes, more than enough of a sample size to obtain relevant fantasy stats. A 70% route participation rate shows he was on the field a lot in his rookie year, and his 1.96 YPRR ranked #32 in the league. This indicates great potential for fantasy success. However, since that time, the Titans have gone out and signed DeAndre Hopkins, who many believe will be the new focal point of the low volume Tennessee passing game. This may muddy the waters with Burks a bit further.
Despite this, and even though many are writing him off, Burks is actually one of my favorite players to buy low, and here’s why:
- The signing of Hopkins doesn’t necessarily signal the end of fantasy relevancy with Burks. Even though the Titans offense is more low volume than most, Hopkins should command most of the opposition's elite corners, opening Burks up more on the other side of the field.
- Burks had a higher aDoT last year than receivers Jerry Jeudy, Stefon Diggs, CeeDee Lamb, Tee Higgins, & D.K. Metcalf, all of which had excellent seasons. This shows much of his work was done in the mid to deep portions of the field, and even though Hopkins is now around to steal some of those targets, he won’t be lining up against these top CB’s. As a result, this alone should improve his numbers.
- He only had 2 touchdowns last year on 4 red zone targets. Burks' prowess in contested catches is particularly intriguing in red zone scenarios. With the Titans seeking dependable targets near the end zone, his skills could make him a favored option in crucial scoring situations, boosting his fantasy stock significantly.
- The number of routes run and snaps played on offense should increase this year, as Burks now has another year of being acclimated to the offense under his belt and has better adjusted to the speed of the NFL.
- Hopkins' contract is relatively short (2 years). This implies that long-term the Titans still have hope for Burks, and while that may diminish his numbers a bit this year, it should bode well for him in the future. He can learn alot from Hopkins this year, and it should only make him a better WR moving forward.
Consensus: Excellent buy-low candidate for your team. In dynasty, he’s someone who will probably be a good stash-and-hold. Currently a WR #3 or 4 with upside for more. Most analysts are projecting him with 55+ receptions, 800+ yards, and 4+ TDs, and that’s in a low volume offense with another alpha WR in Hopkins. Those projected numbers are almost double his stats from last year.
Jahan Dotson, Penn State | Washington Commanders (Round 1, Pick 16):
Dotson hails from Penn State, where he dominated his college competition. His route running and hands in college were elite, and he took those skills and translated them into the NFL, where the Commanders drafted him with the 16th overall pick. He got off to a hot start in his NFL career before getting injured in Week 4. Let’s take a look at his stats:
- Targets: 61
- Target Share: 15.9%
- Target Rate: 17.5%
- Targets Per Game: 5
- Routes Run: 348
- Receptions: 35
- Receiving Yards: 523
- Yards Per Route Run: 1.50
Fantasy Outlook: Solid, Solid, Solid. His Week 4 injury derailed what was on pace to be a very good rookie year (as in, George Pickens good). When he came back it took him a little bit of time to catch up, as his next few games were mediocre. However, once Week 15 arrived, he took off, and from then on, had only 1 game of fewer than 7 targets. This was from a Washington team that had atrocious QB play for most of the season. The recent injury to Terry McLaurin also opens the door for Dotson to vastly improve. Most analysts are expecting him to explode and become the alpha WR in Washington by season’s end.
Consensus: Dotson is in an excellent position to explode this year, with most analysts agreeing that he is going to be at worst a VERY good WR (he has the potential to be the WR2 for your fantasy team by season’s end). Barring injury, he should at the very least tie McLaurin for most targets on the team. If McLauren’s injury is more serious, Dotson’s elite route running and hands show the potential to be the clear alpha. Excellent buy candidate for your team. He has the draft capital and the skills to back up his stats, and could easily double his numbers from last year.
Jameson Williams, Alabama | Detroit Lions (Round 1, Pick 12 ):
The Lions surprised everyone by taking Williams with the overall 12th pick in the 1st round in the draft last year, and he didn’t play much due to injury. When he did play near the end of the year, he was able to show off his incredible talent. Let’s see his stats:
- Targets: 9
- Target Share: 4.3%
- Target Rate: 26.5%
- Receptions: 1
- Reception yards: 41
Fantasy Outlook: As mentioned, he didn’t play until Week 13, and when he did, collected no more than 3 targets. With that being said, his big play talent on the field was evident, and he has the ability to be a boom WR for the Lions. Amon-Ra St. Brown is the current alpha in this offense, and that doesn’t project to change anytime soon (nor should it), but there is room for him to be the #2 pass catcher. The Lions did draft TE Sam LaPorta for a T.J. Hockenson type role, but it should take him at least a year to get acclimated to both the speed of the NFL and the playbook. There are targets to be had, and if Williams gets just half of those, he should have a solid season.
Consensus: If you can handle the off-the-field issues (injury, suspension, etc), he’s an upside WR to draft/acquire due to the fact that when he plays he will probably be very good. Before acquiring, keep in mind that he won’t play before Week 7 due to his suspension, and the less he plays the greater the odds of him not having a long NFL career. However, If you’re willing to have patience and not scared of a bit of risk, he could easily be a steal for the year. To that end, probably a better acquisition in dynasty/keeper leagues as opposed to redraft, but either way has the potential to be a WR3 or better for your fantasy team.
Chris Olave, Ohio State | New Orleans Saints (Round 1, Pick 11):
The Saints traded up to get Olave, who left Ohio State as the all-time receiving leader in Touchdowns. He broke out early in college and the Saints saw more than enough to take him 11th overall. Breaking down his stats, we see the following:
- Targets: 119
- Target Share: 26.7%
- Target Rate: 29.3%
- Targets Per Game: 3.4
- Routes Run: 406
- Receptions: 72
- Receiving Yards: 1,042
- Yards Per Route Run: 2.57
Fantasy Outlook: Not much to say here except for one word….AWESOME! Olave had a stellar rookie season, and was inside the top 10 in the NFL in just about every receiving category, with the exception of touchdowns, where he only had 4. That was with bad QB play in Andy Dalton & Jameis Winston, and the Saints feel like they’ve remedied that problem with the signing of Derek Carr. Barring injury, he should continue his ascent into the stratosphere of elite alpha WR’s, and should have a similar year as last year if not better. Assuming his TD total goes up, his value will only increase.
Consensus: Someone you want on your team in EVERY league, regardless of format. Currently a WR#1 for your team and a starting lineup lock every week. Even though the cost will be high, definitely someone to draft and acquire. He will probably be a VERY good asset for a VERY long time, and is the type of anchor player to build a fantasy team around. He should have a very illustrious NFL career.
Garrett Wilson, Ohio State | New York Jets (Round 1, Pick 10):
Mr. Wilson was a college teammate of the aforementioned Chris Olave, and the two of them formed a dynamic duo during their time at Ohio State. While Olave went 1 pick later in the NFL draft, the Jets decided Wilson was the superior talent by taking him 10th overall. One year later, it's Wilson who is the reigning NFL Offensive Rookie of The Year. Let’s take a look at his actual stats:
- Targets: 147
- Target Share: 24.9%
- Target Rate: 26.9%
- Targets Per Game: 8.6
- Routes Run: 547
- Receptions: 83
- Receiving Yards: 1,103
- Yards Per Route Run: 2.02
Fantasy Outlook: There’s a reason why Mr. Wilson was named NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, as these numbers are just plain…incredible! Compared to his former college teammate Olave, in most metrics Wilson was just as good if not better. He had more targets (6th in the entire NFL), and showcased his elite skills in just about every game! In addition, even though both his target share and rate were slightly lower than Olave’s, they are still in pretty high company (#21 & #16 in the NFL). We’re talking elite numbers here, and Garrett Wilson is on the verge of being an alpha WR if he isn’t already. Something else to keep in mind, those 147 targets were with a combination of Mike White & Zach Wilson throwing him the ball. He should easily repeat most of those metrics (or get close) with a hall of famer in Aaron Rodgers now tossing him the rock.
Consensus: Consensus top 12 WR in most (if not all) fantasy drafts. It’s pretty much a question of who’s better between him and Olave, with it being more like a 1A and 1B scenario as opposed to a WR1 & WR2. They are both bonafide elite alphas in their respective offenses and should be treated as such in your fantasy drafts and on your fantasy teams. In dynasty, Wilson is the type of elite talent you build around, as he’s easily good enough to be at worst your #2 starting WR in all formats. If you think you can acquire him from another owner who doesn’t pay much attention, go for it, but bear in mind he won’t (and shouldn’t) come cheap.
Drake London, USC | Atlanta Falcons (Round 1, Pick 8):
London didn’t really dominate the college ranks as much as some of his WR peers, but his skills were still good enough for the Falcons to take him over both Chris Olave and Garrett Wilson in the 2022 NFL draft. Diving deeper into his stats, we find:
- Targets: 117 (#22)
- Target Share: 29.4% (#5)
- Target Rate: 32.4% (#2)
- Targets Per Game: 6.8
- Routes Run: 361
- Receptions: 72
- Receiving Yards: 866
- Yards Per Route Run: 2.40
Fantasy Outlook: To say London’s rookie year was a bit underwhelming would be….accurate. It isn’t that his stats were bad, it was just…..not as good as it could’ve (or should’ve) been. Much of that was due to the Falcons running the ball more than they should have as opposed to London’s actual talent. Having Marcus Mariota as the starting QB for much of the season didn’t help either, and he was replaced near the end of the year by Desmond Ridder (an upgrade). Despite that, London still managed to be #22 in the NFL in targets, as well as #2 and #5 in respective target rate and target share. His stats themselves weren’t bad either, and he should show vast improvement with a better QB under center and the return of Kyle Pitts.
Consensus: Even though Drake London’s rookie year in the NFL wasn’t quite as good as some of his peers at the WR position, he still showed promise and had a solid showing. With that in mind, he should be drafted as a WR#2 for your fantasy team in every fantasy format. With the Falcons planning on throwing the ball more and the return of star TE Pitts, London should have more opportunities to expand on what is already quickly becoming elite WR metrics. Draft and/or Acquire if possible with confidence, and reap the rewards.
As always in fantasy football, careful monitoring of preseason performances and depth chart changes is essential to making informed decisions when adding any receivers to your dynasty team.
