When it comes to building a dominant dynasty team, identifying young talents with immense potential is paramount. Buying in on WR’s in their 2nd or 3rd year in the NFL is a great way to have a long-term dynasty asset and help your team win a championship. 

In previous articles, we discussed other WR’s taken in the late rounds of the 2022 NFL draft, and we’re finishing up our series where we’re going to evaluate each WR taken to see if they are worth a stash on your Dynasty Fantasy Football roster. We’re working our way up from the bottom rounds of the draft to the top. 

As we prepare for the upcoming season, today we’re going to take a look at all of the WR’s that were drafted in the 2nd round of the 2022 NFL draft and see if any of them are worth a potential spot on your dynasty roster.

Let’s dive into the potential fantasy impact of Christian Watson, Wan'Dale Robinson, John Metchie III, Tyquan Thornton, George Pickens, Alec Pierce, and Skyy Moore.

Christian Watson, NDSU | Green Bay Packers (Round 2, Pick 34):

When he entered the NFL draft, there were a lot of questions surrounding Watson. No one was really sure what they were getting, but they knew one thing, he was fast. He showed his blazing 4.36 speed over the course of the 2022 NFL season, and, at 6’4”, 208 lbs, showed pundits why the Pack thought so highly of him. Let’s take a look at his 2022 stats:

• Targets: 65
• Target Share: 15.2%
• Target Rate: 25.2%
• Targets Per Game: 4.6
• Routes Run: 255
• Receptions: 41
• Receiving Yards: 611
• Yards Per Route Run: 2.40

Fantasy Outlook: Overall these stats are….great! Watson ran over 250 routes his rookie year, which is more than enough of a sample size to get a solid indicator of his ability. A 25% target rate is elite, and his Yards Per Route Run of 2.40 was 12th best in all of the NFL among WR’s. Even though we’d like to see his 15.2% target share be in the 20’s, it’s still very much a solid number, especially for a rookie WR, and one that should improve. Interestingly enough, Watson didn’t really do much until Week 10, when he exploded against the Dallas Cowboys to the tune of 4 receptions for 107 yards. After that, the next 3 weeks of his 2022 season produced near elite numbers, and the hope is that with a new quarterback in Jordan Love, he can improve on these stats. While this production indicates a potentially elite WR in the making, be aware that some red flags do exist. 

1. Watson’s route running wasn’t particularly great, and there is some concern that as the new defacto #1 WR in Green Bay, he may struggle against some of the elite NFL corners. 
2. He had an 11% drop rate last year, 2nd worst among all WR’s. 
3. Jordan Love is the new starting QB instead of Aaron Rodgers, and we don’t know how well Love will do just yet. Historically speaking, WR’s with mediocre to bad QB play haven’t done well, and the Packers are likely to lean on the run game more than last year, especially early in the year. Watson’s stats will likely center around Love’s production as the new QB.

With this in mind, Watson should still command most of the volume in the Green Bay passing game until he proves he can’t handle it. Also, keep in mind that Love sat for 3 years behind Aaron Rodgers, and while we don’t know how good Love will be, when Rodgers first entered the NFL, he also sat for 3 seasons behind some guy named Brett Favre (now in the Hall of Fame), and turned out to be just fine. The point is, the Packers have a good history of developing QBs, so I’d put money on something similar happening with Love, which bodes well for Watson’s potential for long-term success.

Consensus: While some analysts argue that Watson won’t play up to his ADP (and there is that possibility), he should still take a solid step forward in year 2. I’d be comfortable drafting him as my WR #2 off the board early after the top tier guys are gone, and he is a GREAT long-term asset to own in dynasty/keeper formats. Not only does he have the draft capital but also is in a situation where he has a chance to be the bonafide alpha (even if he isn’t there yet and does have competition from Romeo Doubs). Draft with confidence and/or try to acquire via trade if possible, but bear in mind he may not come cheap. Excellent #2/#3 starting WR (with potential for elite upside) for your team in just about every fantasy format.

Wan'Dale Robinson, Kentucky | New York Giants (Round 2, Pick 43):

An intriguing prospect, Robinson hails from the University of Kentucky, where he had an incredible senior season to the tune of 104 receptions, 1,334 yards, and 7 TDs. He also showcased a 37% dominator rating during his time in college, blowing away the competition despite his size (5’8”, 179lbs). The Giants saw enough to take him in the 2nd round of the draft, and they clearly liked him enough to make him the focal point of their offense when he was on the field. Let’s dive into the stats:

• Targets: 31
• Target Share: 19.6%
• Target Rate: 27.7%
• Targets Per Game: 5.1
• Routes Run: 112
• Receptions: 23
• Receiving Yards: 227
• Yards Per Route Run: 2.03

Fantasy Outlook: As previously mentioned, when he was on the field, Robinson showcased some solid speed (81st percentile during the combine), but had trouble staying healthy. He played in Week 1 and got hurt, then came back in Week 6 and was solid for 4 straight weeks, culminating in a 9 reception, 100 yard game against the Lions in Week 10. Sadly, during that Week 10 game he tore his ACL and was out for the remainder of the year. To that end, we’re not quite sure what we have with him, and I’m not convinced the Giants do either.  Since then, they’ve acquired Darren Waller via trade and brought in Jalin Hyatt via the draft (as well as others through trades/free agency). Despite this, when Robinson played he was electric and showed real signs of a potential breakout. The case can be made that if he can stay healthy he has a great chance to have a solid season. As his stats last year indicate, even though he only ran 112 routes, his 27% target rate was elite and his 19.6 target share was higher than even Christian Watson. If this doesn’t indicate the potential for success, I’m not sure anything will.

Consensus: Robinson still has tons of potential. If he is healthy to start the season and remains that way throughout, he could easily be the #1 or #2 receiver (behind only Waller) on the G-Men by season’s end. It’s also possible he gets hurt again or is outplayed by Hyatt or another of the pass catchers the Giants acquired, so he does have a risky range of outcomes. To that end, while he’s currently too risky to rely on as anything more than a bench stash, he’s definitely worth drafting and holding onto, as he could pop as soon as Week 1. At his current ADP of 133, he’s also currently a good buy-low candidate via trade. With that being said, he probably holds more value in dynasty and/or keeper leagues with larger rosters as opposed to redraft leagues with smaller bench spots. In those leagues, depending on the rest of your team, you may want to wait and see if he can be added off the wire. Either way, definitely worth a flier.

John Metchie III, Alabama | Houston Texans (Round 2, Pick 44):

Metchie attended the University of Alabama, and was a college teammate of many future NFL players such as: Tua Tagovailoa, Mac Jones, Bryce Young, Najee Harris, Brian Robinson, Jerome Ford, DeVonta Smith, Jerry Jeudy, Jaylen Waddle, & Jamison Williams, just to name a few. He received his first taste of success at the collegiate level when an injury to Waddle allowed him to get some play time his sophomore year, and from then on never looked back. There are some who believe he was the best WR of that entire group and that he has a chance to be the most successful of all of those WR’s mentioned above when all is said and done. Unfortunately that process has been delayed, as after being picked in the 2nd round last year by the Texans, he was in the process of coming back from a torn ACL when he was diagnosed with Leukemia and sat out the entire year. Since that time he has beaten cancer and is now in training camp with the Texans, with the expectation that he will be healthy and ready to go for Week 1.

Fantasy Outlook: Since he didn’t play last year, obviously we currently have no stats to go by, but he is currently being compared to a young Russell Gage when it comes to ability level. The Texans also spent a 2nd round pick on him, so the talent & draft capital are there. This year provides him with a good chance to make his mark, as the Texans have a new coaching staff in place and a new franchise QB in C.J. Stroud. If things get off on the right foot, the Stroud - Metchie connection could be very good for a long time. The Texans did draft more WR’s in Tank Dell & Xavier Hutchinson in this year’s draft and return pass catcher Nico Collins, so Metchie does have competition. However, he will probably be given a bit of a longer leash due to both the draft capital and talent. To that end, If he can shake off the rust and show the skillset he displayed in college, he’s got a real chance at having a very good NFL career.

Consensus: 100% worth a flier, as someone has to step up in the WR area for the Texans. I’d be comfortable drafting him in the later rounds of startups in both dynasty/keeper leagues, as he has the potential to be a solid player when all is said and done. If you don’t have him, he’s another great buy-low candidate via trade, and may cost less than other WRs due to not playing last year and the transition currently occurring in Houston. He’s currently a solid bench stash with the upside for more, similar to the previously mentioned Wan’Dale Robinson, only with a cheaper (hopefully) acquisition cost. 

Tyquan Thornton, Baylor | New England Patriots (Round 2, Pick 50):

There must be something in the water at Baylor University, as it seems like many WR’s are drafted to the NFL every year, only to bust and never be heard from again. Not sure if this is the case for Thornton, but going into his 2nd year, his prospects aren’t looking too good. He does, however, have elite speed, which counts for something. Let’s dive in to some numbers:

• Targets: 45
• Target Share: 11.3%
• Target Rate: 15.8%
• Targets Per Game: 3.4
• Routes Run: 285
• Receptions: 22
• Receiving Yards: 247
• Yards Per Route Run: 0.87

Fantasy Outlook: If I asked you a trivia question as to who had 45 targets last year (#92 in the NFL among WR’s), I don’t think anyone would answer Tyquan Thornton, yet here we are. Hard to believe he had that many targets considering he never broke into the starting rotation and didn’t have a 90% snap share until week 14, and even then, didn’t do much when he did receive the targets. There could be a bit of light at the end of the tunnel however, as after Week 14 he started to see a fairly consistent snap share to the tune of almost 90% every week. The Patriots were abysmal last year from an offensive standpoint as well, and have since replaced their offensive coordinator. Whether that translates into consistent production for Thornton moving forward remains to be seen, but the talent and speed are there to make an impact. Thornton’s 15.8% target rate last year was on the verge of being un-rosterable, and the 11% target share is lower than we like to see as well. HOWEVER, the majority of his targets occurred after Week 14, when he began to trend up, and it is not uncommon for WR’s to take half their rookie season or more to get acclimated to the speed of the NFL. He could still make an impact.

Consensus: While I’m not nearly as high on him as many of the other receivers in this group, he does still have potential. Not only that, but other than JuJu Smith-Schuster, the Pats don’t really currently have any other fantasy capable WR’s. Mac Jones has to throw to someone, and the team will probably use many 2-TE sets. However, When Jones is not throwing to those TE’s, Thornton has the speed to create separation and beat defenses. I’d draft him in the later rounds of start-up drafts all day, as he’s worth a flier. I’d also consider acquiring him in a trade or waiver pick-up, but if the cost is anything more than a 4th round pick in dynasty formats, it may not be worth it. In smaller leagues he may be best left on the Waiver Wire but worth monitoring closely, as a solid early season showing would quickly put him back on the fantasy radar. 

George Pickens, Georgia | Pittsburgh Steelers (Round 2, Pick 52):

Pickens was drafted in the 2nd round by the Steelers from the University of Georgia. According to PlayerProfiler.com,  George Pickens has a comp of Jerry Jeudy, and showed why the comparison is real. He exhibited explosion, body control, and soft hands. He also paired with QB - Kenny Pickett to have over 800 receiving yards, which is rare for both a rookie QB and a rookie WR. Let’s take a look at his actual stats:

• Targets: 85
• Target Share: 15.6%
• Target Rate: 16.3%
• Targets Per Game: 5
• Routes Run: 521
• Receptions: 52
• Receiving Yards: 801
• Yards Per Route Run: 1.54

Fantasy Outlook: The Steelers got exactly what they were hoping for when they drafted Pickens, who had a VERY good rookie year. A whopping 85 targets (#42 in the NFL among WR’s) is a solid amount, much less for a rookie. The 521 routes he ran shows he was on the field a lot, and (as shown by his 70% or better snap share EVERY week) it’s clear the Steelers wanted him there and had to be pleased with his overall production. If there is a downer, it’s this: His 15.6% target share is ok, and his target rate (16.3%) is lower than we like to see, albeit still solid for a rookie. 

All-in-all, 52 receptions for over 800 yards is a measure some WR’s in the NFL never reach, and Pickens was able to do it in his rookie year while catching passes from a rookie QB. The Pittsburgh offense as a whole should only improve, and Pickens doesn’t really need many more targets in order to reach that 1,000 receiving yard mark. The only potential red flag I currently see is that there may be too many mouths to feed in this offense (Pat Friermuth, Diontae Johnson, Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren), to the extent that it might be awhile before Pickens becomes a true alpha (although some analysts think he will develop a better connection with Pickett and slowly phase out Johnson. While that could occur sooner rather than later, I don’t think it will happen this year).

Consensus: Above-average rookie season with upside for more. 20 more targets this year and he easily approaches (or even tops) a 1,000 yard season. The Steeler offense should be better this year than last, so that bodes well for his potential success. If he’s available in the mid rounds of my startup, I’m comfortable taking him as my #3/#4 WR, with the upside of a #2/#3 as the season goes on. He shouldn’t be on any league’s waiver wire, and if for some reason he is, needs to be added immediately. Also a good player to try to acquire via trade, either alone or (even better) via package. Not good enough (yet) to break the bank for, but talented enough that he should be average at worst and above average to borderline elite at best.

Alec Pierce, Cincinnati | Indianapolis Colts (Round 2, Pick 53):

Quick, how many targets did Alec Pierce command last year? That’s right, 77! The former Cincinnati Bearcat ended up with a solid line of 41 receptions, 593 yards, and 2 touchdowns. Not bad considering his coach was let go halfway through the season and he had multiple QB changes throughout the year. It’s clear the Colts like him and he has a solid future ahead. Let’s dive into the stats:

• Targets: 77
• Target Share: 14%
• Target Rate: 17.5%
• Targets Per Game: 4.8
• Routes Run: 439
• Receptions: 41
• Receiving Yards: 593
• Yards Per Route Run: 1.35

Fantasy Outlook: All-in all, from a statistical perspective, this wasn't a bad rookie showing from Pierce. His 17% target rate is right around the rookie average, and his target share of 14%, while under the normal threshold of 15%, is not that far off from other rookies (Christian Watson’s was only 15.2%). His YPRR sat at #73 in the NFL for all WR’s at 1.35, and when you add that to the 77 targets he received, one can easily see a path to fantasy relevancy. 

Also, the Colts went out and drafted Anthony Richardson to be their long-term answer at QB, and while he may take time to develop, Richardson’s accuracy on deep throws while at Florida was solid. This bodes well for Pierce because he was primarily used as the deep threat both in college and last year for the Colts. If Pierces gets close to the same amount of targets but catches just 10% more of them this year, it’s not out of the realm of possibilities for something around an 800 yard season with 4+ TDs. 

If there are potential negatives, it’s that there’s a new coaching staff in place and the jury is still out on how they plan on utilizing both Pierce and Michael Pittman. The Colts also drafted Josh Downs this year, which could further complicate things.

Consensus: Solid rookie year from Pierce. He has the draft capital and talent to pop and have a better year than last. As mentioned, much of the current unknown has more to do with how he will be used than his skills. While he may not be a fantasy starter just yet, he’s a solid bench piece and spot start/bye week/injury replacement for your team. I’m drafting him in the later rounds of my startup and stashing him on my bench to see how things shake out this year. He’s also another possible buy-low candidate via trade. Pierce is also one of those under-the-radar players for who is worth a spot on your roster, regardless of league format (unless you’re in a league with few bench spots, in which case he’s best left on the wire but should be monitored carefully). A very good buy and hold for dynasty purposes as well.

Skyy Moore, Western Michigan | Kansas City Chiefs (Round 2, Pick 54):

Moore was rated one of the top rookie receivers in last year’s startups, and to say he was a disappointment would be an understatement. Expectations were “skyy” high entering the year, and less than 12 months later, his stock has fallen considerably (although the Kadarius Toney injury has seen his ADP rise back up a bit lately). Taking a look at the stats, we see:

• Targets: 33
• Target Share: 5.6%
• Target Rate: 22.1%
• Targets Per Game: 2.1
• Routes Run: 149
• Receptions: 22
• Receiving Yards: 250
• Yards Per Route Run: 1.68

Fantasy Outlook: It wasn’t just bad, it was, by some analysts, so terrible that he’s already considered a major fantasy bust. They point out that his 5.6% target share was awful (they would be right), and he was hardly utilized (also right). Add in only 22 receptions and 149 routes run, and there is validity to the “bust” label. However……there are few positives.

His target rate for the year was above average at 22%. Another way of stating target rate is targets per route run or TPRR. Essentially, this helps identify players who are earning more playing time and might be worth adding to your roster. A minimum threshold we like to see is 60 targets with a 20% rate. Moore did not obviously meet the 60 target threshold, but he did exceed the target rate. This could signify that he spent time on the field but wasn’t targeted often. His 28% snap share confirms that he was on the field for almost 30% of the Chiefs offensive snaps, but didn’t produce, so what gives? Maybe there are some answers:

1. He came from a small school, and it took a lot of time to acclimate to the Chiefs offense and the NFL speed in general, which is normal for many rookie WRs in their first year.  
2. While in college, most of his time was spent in the slot, and early in the year the Chiefs tried him on special teams, which only hurt instead of helped his development.
3. He was 4th on the WR depth chart, behind JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman, & Toney, not mention the fact that the Chiefs air attack primarily runs through Travis Kelce. 

As we can see, there were multiple factors involved in Moore’s terrible year, but some of that has changed. One of the biggest factors is the other WR's from last year are all gone except for Toney, who is hurt (again). This in and of itself bodes well for Moore to get much more playing time (and targets) than last year. He also has now had an additional year to get acclimated to the NFL, and as we saw in the Super Bowl (7 targets, his most in 1 game all year), the Chiefs are starting to rely on him in more crucial situations. They need someone to step up to help take some of the pressure off of Kelce, and Moore has as good a chance as Toney (if not better) to help alleviate some of that. If he does and produces, he could end up being the WR fantasy steal of the year. 

Consensus: While I do not agree with the analysts who state Moore is a complete bust, I do agree that he was terrible and needs to show something this year, otherwise his odds for success are not good. I currently consider him even more of a buy low then many of the WR's mentioned above. He still has time to turn things around, and chances are good that he will get more playing time and targets. I’m comfortable drafting him in startup drafts in a similar position as last year (mid to late rounds), and trying to buy low from another owner for a spot on my bench (league size depending, of course). Either way, he’s still young enough to make an impact in almost every type of league, and is definitely worth a pickup for your team.

Conclusion:

The second-round wide receiver class of the 2023 NFL Draft is brimming with potential fantasy gems. There’s a very wide range of players here, and all of them are currently worth monitoring on your league’s waiver wire (at worst), with the best of them currently being a #2/#3 starter for your team.  All-in all, a solid group of guys, many of whom should have long careers in the NFL and help your fantasy team both now and in the future.  

As always in fantasy football, careful monitoring of preseason performances and depth chart changes is essential to making informed decisions when adding any receivers to your dynasty team.