Over the last few weeks, I have been discussing concepts that many times are not in line with what many people use as hard rules in fantasy football. I guess that after playing this game since 1985, I have played in so many leagues, with varying formats, that I have been enriched with a wealth of experience. Seeing redraft, keeper, dynasty, auction, IDP leagues and combinations of those formats has left me with some strong opinions and many strategies.
What I am talking about today is ADP. To me, it is a tool like any other that we use to accomplish something. For those new to fantasy football, ADP means Average Draft Position. Many sites utilize it. It displays the round and the pick when a player is selected on average in fantasy drafts using historical data from a large number of already-completed drafts.
As you can guess, people follow the herd on this. Once ADP averages start to coalesce, people follow them religiously. The more they follow it, the stronger the numbers seem to get. Pretty soon, it grows into an expert way of drafting.
I like to use ADP charts to help me see who other owners in my draft are likely to select players and when. I then use my own rankings, based on many factors, to make my draft choices. If a player I really want is coming up ADP-wise, then I have to take him sooner than later. In that way, ADP helps me know what most of my opponents are keying on.
While I may not use ADP as a rankings tool, I do use it as a piece of knowledge to help me get the players I want before someone else spirits them away from me.
Since 2011, I have been a proud member of the FanEx Experts League. FanEx is the most prominent experts league in our industry and was founded back in the early 1990s. There are some of the finest fantasy football minds in this group. Several of them are in the prestigious Fantasy Sports Writers Hall of Fame.
Here are the first rounds of the last two FanEx drafts. As you will note, even experts like these are affected by the same bad luck that all of us are. At this level, many of the owners develop as much depth to actually sustain lost lost first-rounders and still be able to win. As you can see from these drafts, everyone pretty much stayed with the consensus top players. Using ADP or not, these were all valid first-rounders. ADP really breaks down after about the first 25-30 players are gone.
Thus, the first round is a crapshoot of sorts, leaving us to the mercy of a sometimes-merciless roll of the dice. We need to find a way to cover ourselves should that happen to us. Odds are that will happen about once in every three seasons.
In the end, we need two things key factors to win with our teams:
- Sufficient depth to cover us in case of a significant injury.
- An overall starting lineup full of potential to score enough points to win.
Fantasy football is a complicated game and not everyone is capable of winning. However, over the next couple of months, we are going to work together to give you a better chance of winning your championship.
2017 Draft: First Round
1.01 RB David Johnson, ARI
- Total Points: 15
- Overall scoring rank: 467
- ADP: 1
1.02 WR Antonio Brown, PIT
- Total Points: 310
- Overall scoring rank: 16
- ADP: 3
1.03 RB Le’Veon Bell, PIT
- Total Points: 346
- Overall scoring rank: 5
- ADP: 2
1.04 WR Odell Beckham, NYG
- Total Points: 74
- Overall scoring rank: 229
- ADP: 5
1.05 RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL
- Total Points: 205
- Overall scoring rank: 56
- ADP: 11
1.06 WR Julio Jones, ATL
- Total Points: 252
- Overall scoring rank: 35
- ADP: 4
1.07 WR A.J. Green, CIN
- Total Points: 231
- Overall scoring rank: 43
- ADP: 8
1.08 RB LeSean McCoy, BUF
- Total Points: 265
- Overall scoring rank: 25
- ADP: 10
1.09 RB Melvin Gordon, LAC
- Total Points: 288
- Overall scoring rank: 20
- ADP: 9
1.10 WR Mike Evans, TB
- Total Points: 203
- Overall scoring rank: 58
- ADP: 6
1.11 WR Jordy Nelson, GB
- Total Points: 137
- Overall scoring rank: 149
- ADP: 12
1.12 RB Devonta Freeman, ATL
- Total Points: 202
- Overall scoring rank: 60
- ADP: 7
2016 Draft: First Round
1.01 WR Antonio Brown, PIT
- Total Points: 308
- Overall scoring rank: 20
- ADP: 1
1.02 WR Odell Beckham, NYG
- Total Points: 299
- Overall scoring rank: 26
- ADP: 2
1.03 RB Todd Gurley, LAR
- Total Points: 201
- Overall scoring rank: 69
- ADP: 4
1.04 WR Julio Jones, ATL
- Total Points: 259
- Overall scoring rank: 36
- ADP: 3
1.05 RB David Johnson, ARI
- Total Points: 414
- Overall scoring rank: 2
- ADP: 6
1.06 WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU
- Total Points: 197
- Overall scoring rank: 77
- ADP: 5
1.07 RB Adrian Peterson, MIN
- Total Points: 11
- Overall scoring rank: 491
- ADP: 12
1.08 WR A.J. Green, CIN
- Total Points: 186
- Overall scoring rank: 89
- ADP: 7
1.09 RB Ezekiel Elliott, DAL
- Total Points: 327
- Overall scoring rank: 12
- ADP: 8
1.10 RB Lamar Miller, HOU
- Total Points: 193
- Overall scoring rank: 81
- ADP: 14
1.11 WR Keenan Allen, SD
- Total Points: 12
- Overall scoring rank: 482
- ADP: 16
1.12 WR Allen Robinson, JAC
- Total Points: 199
- Overall scoring rank: 72
- ADP: 11
Draft information from the FanEx Experts League, scoring data and ADP information are derived from the league site managed by MyFantasyLeague.com.
Now there are only several weeks left until training camps open. Buckle up for the journey. My colleagues and I at Advanced Sports logic are intent on helping you become the champion you want to be. Between our top-rated software and our poignant articles, we will be with you for the 2018 season in its entirety. What happens then? That, my friends, is easy: We start over and do it all again in 2019!
Over the years many readers have contacted me personally for fantasy football questions throughout the year. I look forward to helping you in your quest to win championships this year. You can contact me with any questions or comments you may have at
https://www.facebook.com/groups/330237687362965/.
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