ASL's Etan Mozia presents a four-step primer to help you properly judge and improve your dynasty fantasy football squad.
Have you adopted an orphan fantasy football team or finished a dispersal draft recently? Did you have a rough 2017 season and finally come to grips with the fact that you have a full-blown rebuild on your hands? No problem. Today, we’ll focus on a few guidelines you can use to evaluate exactly where you stand. Let’s dive into how to properly assess dynasty squads.
To begin the process of evaluating your team, you have to look at your league's settings. Once you determine what type of league you’re dealing with, you’ll be able to make informed decisions about players at each position. Items to focus on should include whether you are playing in a standard, half-point PPR or full-point PPR league. Also see how many players start at each position in your league (one QB, two QBs, two TEs, etc.). Is there a point-per-carry or TE premium rule? Take note of these settings and apply this knowledge throughout the process.
Check your league’s scoring history. Look at the previous two seasons and note the scores of the top three or four teams (by regular season record). Make an average of what these teams scored per week to get an idea of the score you’ll need to consistently win in your league. Do the same for your team. Comparing the two values will help you figure out where your current squad stands in relation to the rest of the league. If the difference between these two values is less than 10-15 points, you can assume your team isn’t that far off and that you probably need only one or two top-tier starters to close the gap. If you find that your team is 20 or more points off that average, you will require three or more starters to catch up. Otherwise, you should consider a rebuild.
Take an honest look at your squad. Who are your best players? Do they produce consistently or is there an oscillating nature to their week-to-week scores? How old are they? What position group is most impacted by age on your roster? Here is the age cutoff guideline by position: QB: 33; RB: 29; WR: 32; TE: 30.
Use these questions to determine what assets you can afford to deal now and whom you should be targeting. For teams full of youth, even if a player is good this season, you may be better off trading him if he is due to depreciate before the rest of your roster matures to a level that allows you to compete. Alternatively, if your squad is vet-heavy, you may find you are only a piece or two shy from challenging, and it could be wise to package a couple of young players for a consistent, veteran stud. If you have a number of boom-or-bust-type players, try to gain some balance by dealing for a few less-heralded yet predictably stable vets and vice versa. The overarching goal is to achieve a level of balance that allows you to reasonably predict your weekly scoring outcomes, barring injury.
Utilize devy league rankings to determine a strategy for building your roster at least two years out from your rookie draft. If your team is weak at running back, for example, looking at devy leagues for this season's draft-eligible players would have let you know that it is necessary for you to grab an RB in 2018 or be forced to wait for the 2020 crop. Need wide receivers? 2019 is projected to have more high-quality talents at that position than this year's class. Also, as a general rule, assume an approximate 30-40 percent hit rate for first- and second-rounders and a 10 percent hit rate for players drafted Round 3 or 4. Using this information can help you determine the value of draft picks and make calculated decisions about what you are trading away or receiving in a deal that includes both present and future picks.
Use these steps to determine the state of your roster and create a plan based on this information. Once you’ve decided on what your plan should be, aggressively pursue it. You should be contending in no time.
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