- Brian Murphy
It’s no secret that David Price has gotten some rotten results in his first season with the Red Sox. He has a 6.75 ERA through seven starts. He leads the league in earned runs allowed. The Yankees’ anemic offense has scored 12 percent of their season total in runs against Price just this month. So, what’s up and should fantasy owners do with Price?
Everyone wants to point to Price’s fastball velocity, which has averaged 92 MPH. He sat at just above 94 MPH last year, so the drop is clearly significant. Still, even after his two most recent starts in which he struck out a total of seven batters in 11.2 innings, Price is averaging 11.5 Ks per nine, way above anything he’s done previously. During his Saturday start in New York, he topped out at only 93.5 MPH, a career low, but let’s see if the strikeouts continue to diminish. In general, Price has shown this year that less fastball velocity isn’t keeping him from accomplishing one of a pitcher’s main missions: miss a ton of bats.
Price is still a high-quality starting pitcher. His FIP, xFIP and SIERA all say so as each one is less than 3.00. Obviously, some bad luck has played a major role in Price’s struggles. He owns a .373 BABIP and a strand rate (54.4 percent) that is 20 points lower than his career average. Those types of things tend to right themselves as the season continues.
However, I can’t put a pretty face on all of Price’s numbers. While his BABIP is very high, it’s not as if hitters are getting a bunch of cheapies off of him. Price currently has a hard-hit percentage of 41.2; he has never topped 30 in that category in his career. That number is very concerning and odd for the pinpoint craftsman Price is. Yet, entering Sunday, the only qualified starting pitcher with a greater hard-hit percentage was Chris Archer, at 41.4.
Archer is another ace who came out of the gates getting knocked around the yard. But in the past couple of weeks, Archer has returned to his previously brilliant form, allowing just two earned runs and only 17 baserunners over 18.2 innings. Thus displaying that sometimes those hard hits just don’t fall. They are falling against Price right now, but that should change.
I don’t think the permanent move to the American League East or the pressure of a $217 million contract are playing parts here either. Price often dominated this division late last year while on the Blue Jays. The Red Sox have said Price is healthy, so perhaps it all boils down to some unknown mechanics that need to be cleaned. But as long as the K rate stays up and the walks stay down, Price is going to rediscover his greatness.
Now would be a good time to see if you could buy low on Price. On Sunday alone, he has been dealt in Yahoo leagues for Bartolo Colon (twice!) Josh Harrison and Jordan Zimmermann, which seems like a perfect buy-low, sell-high trade.
I trust Boston’s words about his health, and even after more than 1,500 career innings pitched, I don’t believe the 30-year-old Price is over the hill. I am not that alarmed yet by the velocity dip. If he strikes out only 3-4 batters per start – as he’s done in his last couple – then I would become very worried. But Price is by and large getting plenty of whiffs and has the metrics backing him up to say that he is no way near this bad of a pitcher and should see his fortunes change in time.
In short, go get David Price. Getting walloped by the Yankees will certainly lower his market value. Buy low and benefit when Price, barring injury, inevitably turns his season around.
- Brian Murphy
Since news broke of Miami Marlin's, Dee Gordon, 80-game suspension, some fantasy owners are wondering how they're going to replace him. The cupboard isn't totally bare.
- Brian Murphy
The first month of the baseball season is in the books. Here's a snapshot of some hitters and pitchers that unexpectedly performed like first round studs in April.
- Tim Haberin - Fantasy Focus
Bryce Harper set Nationals Park ablaze Wednesday afternoon with a performance to remember. The Washington right fielder went 3-for-5 with 3 home runs and 5 RBI, becoming the youngest player since 1969 to hit three homers in a game. It was the kind of monster display that fans have been anticipating since the highly-touted Harper first made his debut three years ago as a 19 year old.
It's been somewhat of a winding road for the Nationals phenom since ascending to the big leagues, as his MLB fantasy owners can attest. Harper hasn't always put up the pure, eye-popping numbers that some thought he would after arriving on the major league stage to extensive fanfare. He hit .272 from 2012-2014 and set his present career-high marks with 22 HR and 59 RBI in his first season. Not figures to scoff at by any means, but definitely a few cuts below the lofty expectations pinned on Harper from the time he graced the cover of Sports Illustrated as a 16 year old.
Often overlooked is the fact that despite this already being his fourth season in Major League Baseball, Harper is still only 22 years old. He is actually younger than several of the game's other bright neophytes, including Mike Trout, Yasiel Puig, and Manny Machado. The MVP-level production will come, and if the early returns in 2015 are any indication, they might be on the way quite soon. After Wednesday's powerful display, Harper has 8 homers and 20 RBI at this early stage of the season. He is also putting up a .265/.416/.561 batting line. Fantasy owners should take note of that .416 OBP: he's drawn an MLB-leading 26 walks so far.
Some might claim that Bryce Harper's chief MLB fantasy appeal will come in his home run output. His current .265 average does leave something to be desired, but if he maintains this kind of plate discipline, it's hard not to like his prospects of becoming a much more well-rounded player for fantasy purposes. He collected a career-best 61 walks in 2013 and he is more than poised to shatter that number this year. Harper fantasy owners can rest assured that as long as he stays healthy he will be a major factor this season. He should only improve in the years to come as well.
For the best fantasy baseball news, including fantasy baseball sleepers and starting lineup advice, keep reading ASL!
- Greg Pokriki - Fantasy Focus
When a former MVP’s MLB fantasy value starts to plummet, fantasy owners are faced with a very tough choice. Do you hold the player and hope that his MLB fantasy stock will rebound or do you cut your losses and move on in a different direction? That’s the hard reality facing any team that’s watching a hobbled Andrew McCutchen struggle through game after ugly game. It’s not exactly breaking fantasy baseball news that the Pirates outfielder is batting a miserable .194 this season with only two home runs and no stolen bases.
Normally a six plus win player (based on WAR), McCutchen is only carrying a .2 WAR through this point in the season. However, the season is still very young and McCutchen could bounce back if the Bucs are smart enough to let him rest his ailing knee. It would be easy to overreact, assume that you as a fantasy owner are stuck with him for the season. But, the alternative is a much better outlook. Assume that things will turn around for McCutchen—because with a little rest, they probably will.
Throughout his career, April has consistently been McCutchen’s worst month of the season. During the month of April, he holds his lowest batting average, lowest hit total, lowest home run total, lowest walk total and his lowest monthly OPS. Yet with all of these repeated slow starts, McCutchen has won an MVP and been voted third in the race two other years. He has proven that he can overcome the slow Aprils and put in a fantastic season.
As a fantasy owner, there is obviously room for concern, but it’s still too early to panic. Monitor his injury closely, but bank on him bouncing back with the coming flip of the calendar. Count on Cutch—at the very least, he’s earned that from you.
For the best info on fantasy baseball sleepers and advice, tune into ASL!
- Tim Haberin - Fantasy Focus
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
Few could have predicted the kind of performance Houston Astros infielder Luis Valbuena has delivered during his first 13 games. On Monday night, he hit solo two home runs and drove in three runs to lead Houston to a 7-5 victory over the Mariners. In 50 total at-bats, he’s smashed five homers and collected seven RBI. It's really been all power so far from the third basemen: his round-trippers account for nearly half of his hits (11).
It's easy to get excited by this kind of early-season display of power, especially from a player typically not on anyone's radar. The main problem is that aside from his unexpected slugging, there's not too much to like about Valbuena from an MLB fantasy perspective. Over the course eight seasons, he's averaged a .229/.312/.378 slash line. His current .220 batting average and .286 OBP are in line with those figures. Valbuena's career-highs in home runs and RBI came last season with 16 and 51, respectively.
This is Valbuena's first year in an Astros uniform after spending time with the Cubs, Indians, and Mariners. His playing time has fluctuated significantly from season to season. The 149 games he played last year were his most in a season by a decent margin; he had not played more than 108 before then.
It's unclear exactly how much Valbuena may have benefited from regular playing time, and at 29 years old, it's debatable how much more room he has to grow. All things considered, his 2014 numbers are probably a fairly good indication of who he is as a hitter.
If you can afford the roster spot and want to see how long Valbuena can continue his hot hitting, feel free to pick him up. Just don't count on him maintaining his current home run pace.
Stay tuned to ASL all season long for the most comprehensive fantasy baseball news and advice!
- Tim Haberin - Fantasy Focus
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
The Red Sox pinned a lot of expectations onto 22-year-old Mookie Betts coming into this season. So far he has shown definite signs of being able to live up to those expectations and his MLB fantasy value is on the rise.
In eight games, Betts has collected nine hits and two of those have left the park. He's also driven in eight runs and swiped three bags, sending his MLB fantasy stock into uncharted territory. He'll need to reach base at higher clip going forward - he sports a .273 OBP so far - but we're still in the very early stages of the 2015 season.
Fantasy owners wishing to evaluate a larger sample size should take a look at Betts' numbers from 52 games last year. In 213 plate appearances, he hit .291 with a .368 OBP. He's already flexing his power and run production muscles at greater rates in 2015 (he had totals of 5 HR and 18 RBI during his time last year), so if his BA and OBP climb back up towards 2014's levels he will be a far more complete fantasy player.
If Mookie has both OF and 2B positional eligibility in your league, that of course only enhances his appeal. It's hard not to feel good about his prospects batting atop a Boston lineup stacked with names like David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez and Pablo Sandoval. If all goes according to plan, he should end up scoring plenty of runs and be able to show off his speed and athleticism on the base paths often. All considered, Betts should end the season as a top 75 player.
Keep up with fantasy baseball news all season long with ASL!
- Greg Pokriki - Fantasy Focus
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
Tis the season for overreactions, and here is quite possibly yet another. Adam Lind’s first four games with the Brewers are telling of a bigger, looming successful season with true MLB fantasy value.
So far this season, Lind is 8-13 with a HR and four walks. I’m not great at math, but I think that works out to a .615 batting average. You say ridiculously small sample size? I say he’s setting a precedent of being a MLB fantasy difference maker.
Now the question becomes whether or not he can hit 54 home runs register 162 walks with a .600 average over an entire season. The answer of course is no, but that doesn’t eliminate him from having a workman like season worthy of a roster spot on your fantasy team.
In seasons where Lind has played in more than 100 games, he has consistently hit more than 20 home runs, topping out at 35 in 2009. His 2014 campaign was shortened to 96 games, but in 2013 (playing in 143 games) Lind hit 23 home runs and batted .288.
Lind also had a 2.3 WAR in 2013. In 2009 Lind actually received MVP votes and a Silver Slugger award. You say dated, dusty awards on a mantle over his millionaire fireplace, but this guy deserves a chance.
He’s traditionally had problems dealing with left-handed pitching, but it looks like he may have turned the corner on these issues coming into 2015. If your league is a standard 5x5 league he’s a strong addition, depending on the rest of your roster. When picking up Lind, understand that you aren’t signing up for a MVP season, but you can expect a solid bat at first.
Stay tuned to ASL for the best fantasy baseball news and advice!
- Tim Haberin - Fantasy Focus
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
Lance Lynn showed off his MLB fantasy value on Wednesday against the Cubs even though he couldn't squeeze out the win. In six-plus innings of work, the Cards right-hander allowed one earned run on two hits, walking one and striking out nine. He provided MLB fantasy owners with virtually everything they could have asked for except a win, which the St. Louis offense did little to capture against a very effective Jake Arrieta.
The 27-year-old has been no stranger to wins during his four seasons in the majors. In 2012, he netted 18 of them on the way to All-Star honors, and the two following seasons saw him earn 15 apiece. His offensive support should typically be much better than it was in this first start, and if he stays healthy Lynn will get his fair share of victories. He has been a dependable fixture of the Cardinals rotation, throwing over 200 innings in each of the last two seasons. If he continues to do so, MLB fantasy owners will have many reasons to smile.
Lynn posted the lowest ERA of his career last season (2.74) and though a repeat performance might be ambitious (see 3.35 FIP), a sub-3.50 mark is a good bet. Other pitchers may help you more in terms of WHIP (1.26 last year), but Lynn should offer plenty of strikeouts. He has maintained at least an 8.0 K/9 rate every season of his career, and he appears quite ready to keep that streak alive if the nine batters he fanned on Wednesday are any indication.
If your league counts quality starts, Lynn's value only grows. Last year he enjoyed a quality outing in 73% of his starts and put up a career-high of 24. Over the last three seasons he has averaged 20. It's a decent consolation on days like this when weak run support squanders win opportunities.
MLB Fantasy owners can take away many positive observations from Lynn's first outing against an improved division rival. Look for him to be a top-30 starting pitcher in 2015.
For the latest fantasy baseball news, keep reading ASL!
- Greg Pokriki - Fantasy Focus
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers
Michael Brantley is a fantasy owner’s dream player with unlimited MLB fantasy value. His well-rounded skill set fits perfectly into the fantasy scoring system, especially if your league follows the standard 5x5 format.
Last season Brantley hit 20 home runs, a number that becomes even more impressive when thinking about the speed and average he maintains. Brantley finished 2014 with a .327 batting average to go along with 23 steals.
Brantley is the real deal finishing last season just shy of 100 RBI, tallying 97 total. With an improving Indians lineup, Brantley could finally break the century mark. His 94 runs scored last season ranked him tenth in the league – a number that could also rise by the end of the season.
During 2014, he finished third in MVP voting. He had the sixth best season based off of WAR, putting up a 7-win season. Brantley turns 28 next month, which should translate into some of the best numbers of his career.
The Indians are legitimate playoff contenders and Brantley is the biggest reason why. While most others in your league likely will underestimate the centerfielder, make sure you properly evaluate and respect his numbers.
With the lack of attention Brantley attracts, you may even be able to consider him a steal for his average draft place or dollar number during an auction. Brantley is a piece to build your team around. Don’t be afraid to go all in on Brantley or the Indians.
Stay tuned to ASL all season long for the best fantasy baseball news!
