Welcome to this week’s Market Movers! Each week, I’ll break down whether I’m buying or selling certain players based on their season-long performance or current hot/cold streaks. To be clear, selling doesn’t always mean I think the player is about to fall off a cliff. It often just means I think now might be the perfect time to cash in before their value drops.
People tend to forget just how long the baseball season is, and stats can shift dramatically over time. It’s tough to stay level-headed, especially early in the year, when a hot streak can spark overconfidence or a slump can cause panic. But those moments of overreaction create windows of opportunity for savvy managers.
Buys
Buy: Marcus Semien
It’s been a rocky overall 2025 for Semien (.225 AVG, .644 OPS), but don’t bury him just yet. Over the past 15 days, he’s quietly reminded us why he’s still relevant, slashing .327/.382/.612 with 3 homers, 10 RBI, and 8 runs. His plate skills remain stable, his K% (18.7%) and BB% (10.4%) are still solid, and his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and barrel rate are actually up slightly from 2024. A .252 BABIP on the season suggests some poor batted-ball luck, and his xwOBA sits 46 points higher than his actual mark, hinting at mild positive regression. Semien’s ironman status (he’s missed just 3 total games since 2021) and top-of-the-lineup role on a still-dangerous Rangers offense mean the counting stats will keep flowing, even if he no longer posts elite ratios. He’s not morphing back into vintage 2021 Semien, but as a buy-low target for volume and a solid floor? Yes, please. Just don’t expect a full-on superstar rebound.
Buy: Luis Garcia Jr.
Luis García Jr. is quietly becoming one of the better "under-the-hood" breakout candidates of 2025. His surface numbers, .259 AVG, 6 HR, 27 RBI, aren’t screaming for attention, but peel back the layers and you’ll find gold. García sports a ridiculous .312 xBA (99th percentile) and a .519 xSLG, both of which dwarf his actual results. His current SLG sits at just .408, a staggering 111-point gap that screams for positive regression. His strikeout rate (12.8%) is one of the lowest in baseball, indicating he has excellent bat-to-ball skills. While he’s not a burner, he’s already swiped 6 bags, proving he can quietly chip in steals too. Batting third in a Nationals lineup that’s sneaky competent at the top (thanks to CJ Abrams and James Wood), García is in a prime RBI spot despite the team's overall struggles. In a shallow second base landscape, García could realistically finish the year with a .280+ AVG and flirt with 20-20, a profile that would be a steal off waivers or in a buy-low trade. If a frustrated manager is ready to cut bait, I’d pounce before the batted-ball luck shifts in his favor.
Sells
Sell: Jackson Chourio
Chourio came into 2025 dripping with hype after a stellar rookie campaign, but the sophomore growing pains are hard to ignore. Sure, the 12 HR and 13 SB look great for fantasy, but the warts are starting to show. His 68:10 K:BB ratio is downright ugly, and a 40.6% chase rate (3rd percentile) shows pitchers have figured out how to exploit his aggressive approach. Despite a recent hot streak, the underlying profile remains shaky. His .289 OBP makes it challenging to rely on consistent run production, and he’s not impacting the ball the way you’d hope: just an 87.9 mph average exit velocity and a 7.3% barrel rate, both very poor. The speed and raw talent are very real, but this looks like a "sell the name, not the numbers" moment. If someone in your league still values him as the preseason breakout darling, now’s the time to cash out before the strikeouts and lack of plate discipline drag his production and fantasy value down.
Sell: Byron Buxton
It pains me to say it, because when he’s healthy, Buxton is a fantasy monster, but I feel I can never fully trust him healthwise. His current .273 AVG feels ripe for regression given a concerning 28.4% K-rate and a .244 xBA, nearly 40 points below his actual mark. Yes, the power/speed combo is real (15 HR, 12 SB in 236 PA), and his 54.1% hard-hit rate ranks among the league's elite, but how long can he stay on the field? Buxton’s 102 games in 2024 were his most since 2017, a fact that tells you all you need to know about the fragility risk. He’s already missed time this year with a concussion, and his violent play style doesn’t inspire confidence that he’ll suddenly stay in the lineup. He’s a big name and exciting player, and you should be able to get a lot for him. I would flip him for a safer, high-end bat or arm while you can. Because when the next IL stint hits, his trade value will plummet.
Sell: Jeremy Pena
Jeremy Peña has been a pleasant surprise for fantasy managers in 2025, but this feels like the perfect moment to sell high. His .317 AVG simply isn’t built to last, powered by an unsustainable .356 BABIP. His expected batting average (.280 xBA) suggests some give-back is coming. The speed is real (15 SB, 97th percentile sprint speed), so if you need steals, holding makes sense. But his power output feels shaky: Peña’s 12.5% HR/FB rate is well above his career norms, and his batted-ball quality is poor (just a 6.8% barrel rate and 88.1 mph average exit velocity). Even in Houston’s Crawford Box-friendly park, a power dip seems likely. At a crowded shortstop position, where you can likely trade Peña for a more bankable bat, now’s the time to cash in before the batting average cools and the homers dry up. There’s nothing wrong with what Peña’s done, but smart fantasy players will recognize when the market’s this high.
