FanDuel MVPs—Who’s the Right Choice for the Eastern Conference Semifinalists?

My goal with this weekly post is to take a look at the current NBA fantasy landscape and figure out something important to tell you. You know—something you can use when building your fantasy rosters. This week, I want to talk about FanDuel MVPs.

When you’re building a DFS roster on FanDuel, you’ll need to designate one player to be your MVP. That player’s salary will be 1.5x his normal salary, but he’ll score 1.5x the points. So, it is safe to say you want to make sure you get the right guy.

But how do you figure out who that person is? You just go with a team’s superstar, right? Surely, that player generates some serious fantasy points every night, and you should name such a person as your MVP.

Before we assume that is indeed true, let’s take a look at a few things.

Eastern Conference MVPs Test

For today’s post, I’m going to stick with the Eastern Conference since the Rockets have forced a Game 7 (Sunday, May 4) and the Nuggets and Clippers are playing their Game Seven Saturday night (I’m writing this Saturday morning.

The Eastern Conference semifinal matchups are as follows:

• No. 1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 4 Indiana Pacers
• No. 2 Boston Celtics vs. No. 3 New York Knicks

And their respective superstar(s)/top fantasy producers with their average DFS output during the regular season (data from FantasyData.com):

• Cavaliers: Donovan Mitchell (37.9), Evan Mobley (37.3)
• Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton (39.3 ), Pascal Siakam (35.1)
• Celtics: Jayson Tatum (46.5), Jaylen Brown (36.4)
• Knicks: Karl-Anthony Towns (45.1), Jalen Brunson (40), Josh Hart (35.7)

This time, using data from FantasyPros.com (FanDuel NBA Defense vs. Position), the breakdown for each team is as follows:

• Cavaliers: PG—5; SG—2; SF—8; PF—24; C-- 11
• Pacers: PG—9; SG—11; SF—2; PF—21; C-- 9
• Celtics: PG—1; SG—4; SF—7; PF—5; C--1
•  Knicks: PG—10; SG—10; SF—11; PF—4; C—3

Based on that, the position/player most likely to produce the most fantasy points consistently for each team in their coming matchup is:

• Cavaliers (vs. Pacers): Evan Mobley
• Pacers (vs. Cavaliers): Pascal Siakam
• Celtics (vs. Knicks): Jaylen Brown
• Knicks (vs. Celtics): Josh Hart

Eastern Conference FanDuel MVP Data: Regular Season

Let’s see if that’s how things played out during the regular season:

Cavaliers

Cleveland played the Pacers twice with Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley in the lineup. In the first game (Jan. 12), Mitchell recorded 25.1 fantasy points and Mobley 33.9. As for the second (Jan. 14), Mitchell scored 52.3 fantasy points and Mobley 40.1.

Pacers

Tyrese Haliburton and Pascal Siakam played together in two games vs. the Cavs. Haliburton accounted for 13,7 fantasy points in one and 51.6 in the other. Siakim had 36.8 and 22.6; he also had 38.4 in a third game (no Haliburton).

However, while Haliburton and Siakim are the top two for the Pacers, it is worth noting that Myles Turner recorded 28.5, 24, and 28.9 in the three games he played in.

Celtics

Jayson Tatum appeared in all four regular-season games against the Knicks, scoring 59.8, 52.2, 49.5, and 49.9 fantasy points. Jaylen Brown recorded 33.9, 27.1, 38.6, 10.5. It is also worth noting that Derrick White had 38.6, 27.6, 40.3, and 36.1.

Knicks

Now, I did not have the fantasy game data available for the Knicks. Karl-Anthony Towns and Jalen Brunson have the most upside, but if you’re looking for consistency while still scoring a decent number of fantasy points, Josh Hart is the right player.

So, class, what have we learned? Data can give us patterns and help us make decisions, but it is not absolute. Depending on how you want to interpret it, the same data can tell you different things. In this case:

• Donovan Mitchell has more upside for the Cavs, but Mobley is more likely to give you a good, solid number each night.
• Myles Turner (center) may be the most reliable choice for the Pacers.
• Sometimes you just have to trust your superstars like Jayson Tatum, no matter what.
• On occasion, the guy you may not consider for MVP (i.e., Josh Hart) may be the choice with the most value.