The NBA playoffs are heating up, and while it’s still early, there are already a few lessons daily fantasy players can take to heart. We might not know who will advance just yet, but smart DFS players are always looking for small edges, and the first few games have revealed plenty. From superstar performances to under-the-radar producers, this early playoff stretch offers valuable insights that can make a big difference in your next lineup.

As of Sunday morning, we have only completed one series (Thunder vs. Grizzlies). So, it is too soon to talk about the second round and which guys DFS players should target/ignore.

However, that doesn’t mean we can’t look at how things have unfolded and learn a thing or two.

Top Ten NBA Fantasy Players (as of end of day 04/26/24)

Here are the top ten fantasy players at this stage of the NBA postseason (according to data from FantasyData.com):

 It is not surprising that Jokic and Antetokounmpo top the list, just like they were during the regular season. Nor is it shocking that several of the top ten producers on playoff teams from the regular season are in the top ten so far during the playoffs.

What is a little interesting and surprising is that the top five producers are from matchups that are more competitive and not the easy 1-8 seed games:

• Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo are both playing in 4-5 matchups.
• Jalen Brunson, Cade Cunningham, and LeBron James are playing in 3-6 matchups.

Donovan Mitchell was the only player from a No. 1 seed inside the top ten, but then he had a lackluster game against the Heat on Saturday, causing him to fall out. But then Shai Gilgeous-Alexander went off for 38 in OKC’s win Saturday to launch him into the top ten.

DFS Lessons From Round One

So, what can this tell us? That easy matchups are not where you want to look for DFS players. You’re more likely to find a player worth adding to our DFS roster from a competitive matchup.

That’s true if you want to draft a superstar, but what about the rest of your roster? Here’s a breakdown of the top DFS producers (avg. fantasy points/game) from the 5-4 and 6-3 matchups:

• Lakers: 48.4, 46.8, and 27.7.
• Nuggets: 61.8, 36.8, 30.7, 28.9, 27.6, and 25.3.
• Clippers: 42.5, 41.8, 38.4, and 25.
• Timberwolves: 43.6, 33.4, 32.2, and 23.4.
• Knicks: 49.8, 40.3, 31.7, 30.9, and 29.1.
• Pacers: 42.0, 38.6, 25.9, and 24.5 x 2.
• Bucks: 58.1, 27.9, 25.9, and 25.6.
• Pistons: 48.7, 30.5, 27.2, 22.8.

In fairness, here’s how the top players have produced from 1-8 and 2-7 matchups:

• Thunder: 45.2, 39.9, 35.2, 26.4, and 23.2. *swept Grizzlies
• Rockets: 40.1, 33.0, 24.1, 24.0.
• Warriors: 48.4, 38.7, and 25.2.
• Grizzlies: 32.3, 32.1, 28.1, 26.7, 25.6, and 22.7. *eliminated by Thunder
• Cavaliers: 37.0 x 2, 29.8, 28.7, 26.4, and 25.1.
• Celtics: 46.8, 36.1, 35.5, 26.3, and 23.9.
• Magic: 47.4, 41.4, and 25.5
• Heat: 40.5, 36.9, 30.4, and 28.1.

Okay, so maybe the 1-8 and 2-7 matchups are not necessarily a DFS wasteland. But compared to the 3-4 and 5-6 games, pass on the superstars from 1-8 and 2-7 matchups; they aren’t worth the high price you’ll probably have to pay.

Many more data points can be used to analyze how to pick DFS players during the postseason, but I don’t want to bore you with too many numbers in one post. For now, I think the best lessons we can take from the first round are as follows:

• Regular season DFS production is a good indicator, but not the best.
• Matchups are important; stars tend to shine (and score more fantasy points) when their teams need them to.
• Don’t overpay for a superstar. Take the time to do a little research, and you can find value.

While the NBA playoffs are just getting started, early trends show that competitive matchups often bring out the best in fantasy performers. DFS players who focus on value, matchup intensity, and current form, rather than relying solely on regular-season stats or superstar names, will put themselves in a stronger position to succeed. Keep adjusting, keep studying the data, and most importantly, trust what the playoffs are showing you.