Every year, fantasy baseball managers stress over when to draft starting pitchers. Should you grab an ace early? Should you load up on arms? Should you just auto-draft and let Chaos decide? (Hint: Probably not the last one, unless you enjoy pain.) Finding the right balance in drafting pitchers is crucial, and understanding the risks and rewards can help you build a dominant rotation without wasting valuable early-round picks.

The 2024 season served as another reminder of why overpaying for top-tier starters can be dangerous. The two top-ranked pitchers in most drafts, Yankees ace SP Gerrit Cole and Atlanta SP Spencer Strider, had injury-plagued seasons, reinforcing the reality that elite pitchers break down far more often than elite hitters. This trend makes it increasingly clear that investing early-round capital in a pitcher is a risky proposition. While I have nothing bad to say about Tigers SP Tarik Skubal and Pirates SP Paul Skenes (who both look like dominant forces heading into 2025), I want to provide some alternative options for creating a championship rotation.

Last season proved that great pitching value often emerges from unexpected places. Names like Garrett Crochet, Paul Skenes, Seth Lugo, Jack Flaherty, Reynaldo López, and Tanner Houck were largely overlooked in drafts, all taken outside of the top 250, but became significant contributors. This underscores the importance of targeting undervalued arms rather than chasing big names. While drafting a top-tier ace can be a viable strategy, identifying high-upside pitchers or reliable innings eaters in later rounds can lead to a stable and productive fantasy rotation. That being said, every pitcher carries injury risk. Every. Single. One.

Here are some of my favorites……..

Sonny Gray

Cardinals SP Sonny Gray, oh Sonny Gray. A pitcher who always seems to be overlooked. And trust me, if I—a still-bitter Yankees fan—am willing to endorse him after how his Bronx tenure went, you should take notice. When people think of Sonny Gray, they picture consistency without much upside, but that’s simply not true. Did you know he finished second in Cy Young voting in 2023? Or that he racked up over 200 strikeouts last season with a stellar 30.3% strikeout rate? Gray has been the definition of reliable, but his dominance is often underappreciated.

Over the past five seasons, he’s posted a combined 3.35 ERA and 3.30 FIP, with yearly ERAs ranging from as low as 2.79 to as high as 4.19. Despite finishing 2024 with a 3.84 ERA, his underlying metrics were far more impressive—a 3.12 FIP and 2.82 xFIP suggest he was even better than his surface numbers indicate. He remains in St. Louis, which may not do much for his win total but is a much friendlier environment for his ratios than the hitter-friendly confines of Cincinnati. Even as he enters his age-35 season, Gray’s deep six-pitch arsenal—one that doesn’t rely on overpowering velocity—should allow him to deliver yet another strong campaign.

Bryan Woo

Seattle SP Bryan Woo is a fascinating case. While he doesn’t rack up elite strikeout numbers, his ability to limit hard contact and avoid walks makes him one of the most efficient pitchers in baseball. Last season, he posted a 2.89 ERA, 3.40 FIP, and an elite 0.90 WHIP, all while striking out 21.4% of batters. What truly sets him apart is his exceptional command—his 2.8% walk rate and 4.8% barrel rate made him one of the most effective starters when healthy. In fantasy, we often focus on a pitcher's ERA much more than we think about WHIP. Woo’s exceptional walk rate makes him one of the safest and most effective pitchers to contribute to your team’s WHIP this year. Woo leans heavily on his elite fastball duo, throwing his four-seamer and sinker over 70% of the time. Both pitches are dominant, and as he continues to refine his slider, changeup, and sweeper, he has the potential to become even more dangerous. While forearm issues last season have made drafters wary, he enters 2025 fully healthy. As I stated earlier, all pitchers carry some injury risk, but if Woo stays on the mound, he has legitimate top-10 starter upside heading into this year.

Yusei Kikuchi

Los Angeles Angels SP Kikuchi is an intriguing fantasy option with undeniable upside. Since 2020, he has posted a solid 26.2% strikeout rate, peaking at 28% last season. His success is built on a high-velocity fastball, and thanks to his excellent extension, generates impressive induced vertical breaks, allowing him to effectively attack hitters up in the zone. Despite his skill set, Kikuchi isn’t highly sought after in drafts (moving to the Angels doesn’t spark much excitement), and entering his age-34 season adds to the skepticism. However, I’m far more optimistic. He has remained healthy, and the Angels invested in him to be a frontline starter. He brings a strong strikeout profile, limits walks, and has promising underlying metrics—his 3.46 FIP and 3.20 xFIP last season suggest he was unlucky to finish with a 4.05 ERA. While wins may be tough to come by in Anaheim, Kikuchi’s skill set makes him a valuable fantasy asset.

Grayson Rodriguez

Among the exciting young arms with breakout potential in 2025, Orioles SP Grayson Rodriguez stands out as a prime candidate. The Baltimore Orioles have long been searching for an ace, but Rodriguez might already be the answer. He has shown flashes of dominance, though he still lacks the polish of an elite starter. His fastball averages 96 mph (and, thanks to his elite extension), it graded out with a 107 Stuff+ last season—ranking 11th among starters. However, hitters have posted unusually high BABIPs against it. His changeup is a legitimate weapon against lefties, but he struggles to use it effectively against right-handed hitters. To counter this, he has been refining his slider and curveball, with a notable tweak to his slider, increasing its velocity by an average of four mph. If he continues to develop that pitch, it could help him neutralize right-handed hitters more consistently. Reducing his fastball usage while leaning more on his slider and changeup could be the key to unlocking his full potential. If he sharpens his pitch mix and improves his command, Rodriguez could emerge as both Baltimore’s ace and a game-changing asset for your fantasy team.

Nick Lodolo

This pick is more of a flyer, but at an ADP of 241 (per Fantasy Pros), Cincinnati SP Nick Lodolo is a low-cost investment with significant upside. A former top prospect, he dominated the minors with a 13.9 K/9 and boasts a fastball profile reminiscent of a young Chris Sale, featuring exceptional horizontal movement. I’m always interested in pitchers with elite strikeout potential, especially when paired with solid walk and ground ball rates. However, the concerns are real—injuries have been a recurring issue, and pitching in a hitter-friendly home park doesn’t help mitigate his elevated home run rate. Still, the talent is there, and if he can stay healthy and put it all together, he could be a steal. If not? No problem—just cut him and move on.

Gavin Williams

This is another classic "take a chance, and if it doesn’t work out, just cut him" situation. With an ADP of 278 (per Fantasy Pros), Cleveland SP Gavin Williams is a low-risk, high-upside gamble. Cleveland has a strong track record of developing pitchers, and Williams could be their next success story. A former first-round pick in 2021 and a consensus top-25 prospect, he has the pedigree to break out. Williams is often compared to Garrett Crochet, despite being a righty, thanks to his high-velocity fastball and elite extension. However, the key to his breakout may lie in his cutter, just like Crochet. He didn’t throw it at all in 2023, but in 2024, he introduced it at a 12% usage rate, increasing that number as the season progressed. If he continues refining the pitch, it could be a game-changer as it can play off of his high upside fastball due to speed and extension. He also has a curveball that generates plenty of whiffs, but his inability to consistently throw it for strikes has limited its effectiveness. For Williams to take the next step, he’ll need to command his offspeed pitches in the zone while leaning more on his cutter. Playing for a team that excels at developing pitchers only adds to the optimism that 2025 could be his breakout year.

In fantasy baseball, starting pitching is a volatile yet crucial part of building a championship roster. The key is to avoid the temptation of overpaying for top-tier arms and instead focus on targeting undervalued pitchers with high potential and stable health profiles. As we've seen time and again, valuable pitchers often emerge in the later rounds, offering a significant return on investment. If you build your rotation wisely and stay patient, you'll have the opportunity to outpace your competition and dominate the pitching categories without sacrificing your entire draft strategy. Now, it’s time to trust the process and make those picks count!