Welcome to this week’s Market Movers! Each week, I’ll break down whether I’m buying or selling certain players based on their season-long performance or current hot/cold streaks. To be clear, selling doesn’t always mean I think the player is about to fall off a cliff. It often just means I think now might be the perfect time to cash in before their value drops.

People tend to forget just how long the baseball season is, and stats can shift dramatically over time. It’s tough to stay level-headed, especially early in the year, when a hot streak can spark overconfidence or a slump can cause panic. But those moments of overreaction create windows of opportunity for savvy managers.

Buys

Buy: Corey Seager

Corey Seager is healthy, a crucial caveat with him, so if that box is checked, I’m buying. In 2025, his profile is elite: average exit velocity (~93 mph), barrel rate (14.4%), and hard-hit rate (51.4%) all land in the 90th percentile or better. Despite a modest .243 batting average, his xBA sits at .292, a solid 49 points higher, suggesting he’s been snake-bitten with a .243 BABIP. At 31, Seager remains young enough to produce, and with that type of contact skill, a 30-homer, near-.300 average season is far from outlandish. The foundation is there, it’s just a matter of luck catching up. If he’s available at a reasonable cost, Seager fits perfectly as a bounce-back buy-low target.

Buy: Dylan Cease

I’ve always been a Dylan Cease apologist, and while I’m not promising a sub-3.00 ERA, I do feel confident he’ll settle in under 4.00 moving forward, making him a true buy-low candidate. Despite a 4.28 ERA so far, his strikeout upside remains undeniable: 96 strikeouts in just 75.2 innings, with a 29.9% K rate and an impressive 34.7% whiff rate. The main concern lies with his fastball, which has lost some of its effectiveness. As a result, he’s leaned heavily on his slider, throwing it roughly 50% of the time now, with far better results (xwOBA of .263 on the slider compared to .373 on the fastball). That said, his heater still boasts premium velocity at 96.9 mph and elite spin, so there’s reason to believe some adjustments could restore its impact. What’s undeniable is his elite strikeout arsenal; if the fastball rebounds even slightly, his ERA could drop quickly. Regardless, any pitcher with a 30% K rate and an overpowering secondary offering is worth owning, especially while surface numbers are scaring others off. Maybe Cease is pressing in his contract year, but I usually bet on guys to turn it around when they’re pitching for a payday. His slider was arguably the most valuable pitch in baseball last year, and he’s admitted to working through some mechanical adjustments, so it’s worth giving him time. Plus, his BABIP is 63 points higher this season compared to last, which has inflated his ERA and left him with a far more promising 3.11 FIP.

Buy: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Despite being drafted as a premier power bat, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has underperformed expectations in 2025, but that opens a window to strike. He’s putting up a solid .278/.380/.801 slash line with 8 homers and 30 RBI, yet his underlying metrics show much more upside. Batted-ball data confirms his elite profile: 93.5  mph average exit velocity, 54% hard‑hit rate, and 14% barrel rate, all ranking in the 90th percentile, yet he’s still hitting too many ground balls (~53%), limiting his power output . With an xBA near .325, well above his actual mark, luck is overdue to swing in his favor, and his premium spot in a Toronto lineup sets him up for plenty of RBI and Runs. If Vlad Jr.’s owner is frustrated with the slow power pace, now is the time to pounce, acquire a player with elite batted ball skills and upside in a high-scoring offense before he breaks out.

Sells:

Sell: Jacob Wilson

It pains me to say this because I love Jacob Wilson’s contact-heavy, old-school archetype, it’s a rare and fun profile in today’s game, but now is the perfect time to sell high. While Wilson is slashing an impressive .339 with 8 home runs and 41 RBI so far, his expected stats tell a different story. His xwOBA sits at .328, far below his actual mark of .401, and his barrel rate remains an extremely low 2.7%. His elite bat-to-ball skills and low strikeout rate make him tough to pitch to, but without power or patience (his walk rate is just 4.8%), pitchers will start to adjust, exploiting his aggressive approach. I don’t think the bottom will completely fall out, Wilson could settle into a Luis Arraez-type hitter who offers batting average but little else, but this feels like the peak of his fantasy value. Unless he develops better strike zone discipline and starts walking more, sustaining hard contact and run production will be difficult, making now the ideal window to cash in while the hype is still high.

Sell: Seth Lugo

Seth Lugo has been a fantastic story this season, making a seamless transition from bullpen weapon to reliable starter. However, beneath the surface, some warning signs are flashing. Despite a sparkling 3.46 ERA, Lugo’s expected ERA sits at an inflated 5.22, a massive gap that hints at potential trouble ahead. Even last season, when Lugo was effective, his xERA was a more modest 3.75, indicating that he consistently outperformed his peripherals. Lugo’s profile just isn’t built to sustain this level of success. His fastball remains middling, and his 11.9% K-BB rate is far below the threshold of most frontline starters. Additionally, a low BABIP of .253 and an unsustainably high strand rate of 83.1% suggest that batted ball luck and favorable sequencing have played a significant role in his early results. Eventually, those numbers tend to even out, often painfully. With Lugo’s recent success and the reputation he’s built since moving to the rotation, this is an excellent opportunity to cash out while his perceived value is high. You might be able to flip him for a more stable arm or an impact bat before regression comes knocking.

Sell: Kyle Finnegan

Kyle Finnegan has quietly become one of the more intriguing fantasy sell-high options this year. He currently ranks tied for third in the NL with 18 saves and boasts a tidy 2.25 ERA through 24 innings, numbers that are better than most expected. But here’s the twist: his value isn’t limited to fantasy, we’re approaching a Nationals trade deadline, and Finnegan is a free agent after this season. Washington, a non‑contender, will almost certainly shop him, yet it’s far from guaranteed he lands in a high-leverage closing role with a contender. Despite the attractive ERA and save total, his peripherals aren’t jaw-dropping, 21 K’s in 24 IP (K/9 around 7.9) with eight walks don’t scream dominant. That won’t stop other GMs from chasing saves, especially this far from July, meaning you could demand a solid return now. My advice? Don’t wait, explore offers and cash in while his surface stats are still hot.

Sell: Jose Altuve

It’s time to cash in on nostalgia before reality catches up—sell high on José Altuve now. He’s batting a respectable .270 on the season and delivered a hot 15-game stretch recently (.333 with 3 homers), but his name value is propping up what the numbers won’t sustain. Batted ball data shows his average exit velocity (85.2 mph) and hard‑hit rate (30.5%) are career lows, landing in the bottom 10% of MLB hitters. His walk rate has dipped to just 6.6%, while chase rates and soft contact have climbed, classic signs of decline. Sell him now, before the name stops carrying the weight, and those underlying metrics drag his production back down to Earth.