Welcome to this week’s Market Movers! Each week, I’ll break down whether I’m buying or selling certain players based on their season-long performance or current hot/cold streaks. To be clear, selling doesn’t always mean I think the player is about to fall off a cliff. It often just means I think now might be the perfect time to cash in before their value drops.
People tend to forget just how long the baseball season is, and stats can shift dramatically over time. It’s tough to stay level-headed, especially early in the year, when a hot streak can spark overconfidence or a slump can cause panic. But those moments of overreaction create windows of opportunity for savvy managers.
Buys
Buy: Maikel Garcia
I’m buying in on Maikel Garcia, even if the .315 batting average he’s currently posting isn’t sustainable. From a fantasy perspective, anyone who can flirt with 40 steals holds immense value. Garcia swiped 37 bags last year despite a .281 on-base percentage, which means the sky is quite literally the limit if he can maintain an OBP closer to .350.
He’s also a versatile fantasy asset, offering multi-position eligibility, making lineup construction easier. But where I’m really buying Garcia is in the power department; it looks like it might actually be legit this time around. His average exit velocity ranks in the 84th percentile, and he’s squaring up the ball at a stellar 95% clip. Garcia has increased his pull and fly ball rates by 9 and 7 percentage points, respectively, both encouraging signs for someone showing more isolated power. His launch angle has jumped by 9 degrees, and his bat speed has increased in three consecutive seasons.
Garcia offers a strong plate approach beyond the speed and budding power. He rarely chases or whiffs, and his strikeout rate remains low, giving him a solid floor even if the batting average comes down a bit. That kind of contact profile paired with elite speed is rare and valuable. Yes, I expect some regression. But a dual-eligible player with improved power, top-tier speed, and a contact-oriented approach feels like the kind of name we’ll be hearing much more about as the season progresses. I’d try to buy him before the rest of your league catches on to just how valuable he might be.
Buy: Ivan Herrera
Get Ivan Herrera right now! What’s crazy is that he still might be available on your waiver wire, and even if he’s not, it’s worth throwing out a trade offer, because all this guy does is mash. He recently came off an IL stint, so there’s a chance people forgot about him again, but make no mistake: he’s healthy and raking.
Herrera hit well last season, batting .301 with an .800 OPS over 259 plate appearances. He’s exploding this year, granted, the .417 batting average and 1.252 OPS won’t last, but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t take advantage. If someone in your league doesn’t believe in him and wants to “sell high,” I doubt they’ll sell high enough to reflect his potential value.
The Cardinals are clearly buying in. They’re finding ways to get Herrera into the lineup every day, whether it’s behind the plate or at DH, which was really the only thing holding him back. And the underlying metrics are just as impressive as the results. His bat speed and barrel percentage are elite. He also doesn’t strike out much and shows decent command of the strike zone. Herrera is young, talented, and may be in the middle of his first true breakout season, with catcher eligibility to top it off. This has all the makings of a league-winning pickup. Don’t wait. Go get him.
Buy: Yordan Alvarez
Targeting Yordan Alvarez really comes down to how risk-averse you are. Alvarez is currently dealing with a hand injury that’s kept him on the IL since May 5th. What was initially expected to be a brief absence has turned into a more extended stay, and as of now, there’s no precise return date. He recently told the media that he’s still “not pain-free” while hitting off a tee, and even mentioned that it’s starting to become a bit of a mental hurdle, which is definitely a cause for concern.
That said, there’s no structural damage, nothing broken or torn, and despite the vagueness surrounding his return, this doesn’t appear to be a long-term or season-ending issue. While Alvarez was off to a slow start this year, the fact that he was playing through this hand issue for most of his 121 plate appearances makes his early-season numbers largely irrelevant. Even with the injury, his elite bat speed and average exit velocity aligned with his career norms.
We can’t forget that Yordan Alvarez is one of baseball's absolute best and most consistent hitters. He owns a monster .959 career OPS and, when healthy, is a lock for 30+ home runs, 100+ RBIs, and a batting average close to .300. If you're a fantasy manager who can weather the storm for a few more weeks, or someone looking to take a big swing to turn your season around, Alvarez is precisely the kind of buy-low candidate who could pay off massively.
Sells
Sell: Anthony Santander
This isn’t revisionist history; I’ve been out on Anthony Santander from the beginning. As a Yankees fan, when the team missed out on Juan Soto, I remember thinking, please don’t sign Santander. That said, I didn’t expect things to be this bad. Santander has been awful, but because his name was floated in free agency last year, there’s still a chance you can get someone to pay decent value for him. And in my opinion, he will be a zero for the rest of the season.
His strong production last year, 44 home runs, was misleading. Even in his “big” year, he posted just a .814 OPS, which wasn’t elite given the power numbers. This season, the warning signs are flashing red: a weak 5.1% barrel rate and a “squared-up” percentage that ranks in the bottom 20th percentile. His average exit velocity, bat speed, and hard-hit rate were never elite to begin with, and they’ve all declined further in 2024.
To make matters worse, he’s been dealing with a back issue, which is notoriously bad news for power hitters. Since he doesn’t contribute to batting average or speed, power is the only real source of value he offers, and right now, that power just isn’t there. If anyone in your league is still willing to “buy low,” I’d jump at the opportunity. Move him while he still carries name value, because the outlook is bleak.
Sell: AJ Smit-Shawver
AJ Smith-Shawver is a young pitcher with a shiny ERA, but almost nothing in his underlying metrics supports it. That makes him a perfect sell-high candidate. He’s just 22, pitching for a high-profile team, and currently sports a 2.33 ERA, which will draw attention from fantasy managers. But trust me, the bottom is going to fall out soon.
Over his last five starts, he’s posted an impressive 1.50 ERA. Sounds great, right? But look closer at who he’s faced: the Pirates, Rockies, Nationals, Rays, and Reds. All five teams rank in the bottom third of the league in runs per game. In other words, he’s been padding his stats against weak offenses. Dig deeper, and the concerns are hard to ignore. His expected ERA (xERA) sits at an ugly 5.13. He has average fastball velocity, doesn’t miss many bats, and struggles with control; his walk rate is a real problem. And it’s about to get tougher: his next few scheduled starts are against the Phillies, Red Sox, and Giants. Don’t be surprised if those sparkling numbers take a hit.
Edit (as of May 22nd): The regression may already be underway. In his latest outing, ironically against the Nationals, he was shelled for 7 earned runs on 8 hits in just 3 innings, recording only one strikeout. If someone in your league is still buying the breakout, now’s the time to move him. Sell before the value vanishes.
Sell: Wilmer Flores
Wilmer Flores currently ranks third in baseball and second in the National League in RBIs. If that doesn’t scream sell high, I don’t know what does. Flores has a career high of 71 RBIs, and he already has 43 this season… and it’s only May. He turns 34 in August, so a career year at this stage is hard to trust, especially in a stat as fluky as RBIs. Once you dig into the peripherals, you’re quickly reminded that this is Wilmer Flores, not Aaron Judge.
His expected wOBA, xBA, and xSLG are all significantly lower than his actual numbers, indicating his production is far outpacing what his quality of contact would suggest. And it gets worse: his average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and bat speed all rank near the very bottom of the league, literally in the 2nd percentile.
Flores has gotten some buzz recently, thanks to a walk-off hit and being part of a feel-good story on a surging Giants team. He’s also hitting in a favorable spot in the lineup, which helps his counting stats. But that’s exactly the type of narrative-driven optimism you should be selling into. The truth is: Flores is due for serious regression. Move him while the numbers still look shiny. The window to sell high won’t last much longer.
