Relief pitching in fantasy baseball is like trying to predict the stock market based on vibes. Sure, stats matter, but so do things like managerial tendencies, trade rumors, and whether or not a guy has the ninth-inning role locked down. This year, though, I believe elite relievers are more valuable than ever. Additionally, saves are as fickle as ever, and reliever statistics besides saves are more valuable than ever. 

Also, I love taking multiple elite closers because starters are pitching less than ever. That means having great ERAs and WHIPs from your relievers is more valuable than before. Plus, these top relievers can push toward 100 strikeouts, significantly boosting your totals there too.

That being said, let’s acknowledge something: relief pitchers exist in a world of small sample sizes, managerial whims, and bad luck. One brutal outing can wreck an ERA. A manager can decide to give the ninth to a guy who "looks the part." Some of the best bullpen arms don't even get saves! So, while underlying metrics are important, there’s a ton of nuances to how we evaluate these guys.

The Nuance of Relief Pitching in Fantasy Baseball

• Trade Candidates: If a guy is on a bad team and dealing, there’s a good chance he gets shipped to a contender—possibly into a setup role. On the flip side, a traded reliever could inherit a closing gig out of nowhere.
• Managerial Tendencies: Some managers have a “guy.” Others play matchups like they’re setting a daily Wordle. If you draft a closer from a team with a revolving-door bullpen, prepare for headaches.
• Best Reliever ≠ Closer: Some teams give their best bullpen arm the high-leverage spots, not necessarily the ninth. Meanwhile, some mediocre guys rack up saves just because there’s nobody else.

This article will break down the closer situations in the American League, then we will head over to the National League.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

Athletics: Mason Miller

Some closer situations are straightforward, the Athletics are one of them. Mason Miller is incredible, and the job is all his. Despite missing some time in 2024 due to injury, he still racked up 28 saves and begins this year with no real competition. His dominance is undeniable, striking out 104 batters in just 65 innings, fueled by an absurd 41.8% strikeout rate and 40.1% whiff rate. Miller is exactly the type of reliever I mentioned earlier, one who can rack up strikeouts while delivering elite ratios.

His only real drawback is health. Miller missed all of 2022 with a rotator cuff injury and most of 2023 after undergoing Tommy John surgery. There’s a reason he was moved to the bullpen, largely abandoning the three-pitch mix he used as a starter. The A’s were cautious with his workload last season, which seemed to work, as his only IL stint came from a fractured pinky rather than an arm issue. That said, his durability (and Oakland’s tendency to manage his workload), are the only things that holding him back.

Even with those concerns, I’m all in. He’s just too freakin’ good. If he does miss time, backup José Leclerc would likely be next in line for saves.

Orioles: Felix Bautista

Felix Bautista was essentially Mason Miller before his injury. Before missing all of 2024 due to Tommy John surgery, he was dominant over two seasons, logging 126.1 innings with a sub-2.00 ERA, sub-1.00 WHIP, and 198 strikeouts. Bautista is on track to return at the start of the year, and if healthy, should have no real competition for the closer role.

That said, he’s someone you need to monitor closely in spring training. He’s always had a bit of wildness in his game (part of what delayed his MLB debut until age 26), and pitchers returning from Tommy John often need time to regain their command. If your draft is happening right now, he’s more of a risk, but if he’s locating well and throwing at his usual velocity this spring (even if he gives up some runs), he could quickly return to being one of baseball’s elite closers.

In general, I tend to avoid starting pitchers in their first year back from Tommy John, but relievers are different due to their lighter workload. I feel Bautista is worth the gamble and would aggressively target him in the tier just below the elite closers, as his upside is that high. If he does fail, Andrew Kittredge would be next in line to earn saves.

Red Sox: Liam Hendriks, Aroldis Chapman, Justin Slaten, Garrett Whitlock

The Red Sox bullpen situation is far less clear than the first two and will be one to monitor closely as spring training unfolds. As of now, Liam Hendriks and Aroldis Chapman are expected to battle for the closer role. Both have extensive experience in the ninth inning and were once among the best in baseball. From 2019-2022, Hendriks was an elite option but has thrown just five innings over the past two seasons. Encouragingly, he hit 96 MPH in his spring debut, which is a promising sign.

Chapman, on the other hand, was brought in as a lefty weapon, which could mean a more flexible role unless Hendriks struggles early. He still throws as hard as nearly anyone, but his walk rate has hovered around 15% since the latter part of his Yankees tenure in 2021. That kind of control issue leads to occasional blow-up outings, making him wildly inconsistent. However, when he’s on, he’s dominant.

If both falter, keep an eye on Justin Slaten. The Red Sox grabbed him as a Rule 5 selection last year and he impressed with a 21.9% K minus BB rate and a sub-3.00 ERA. He leans heavily on his cutter and four-seamer, which sits around 96 MPH, while also mixing in a sweeper against righties. He’d likely be next in line for save opportunities.

The true wild card is Garrett Whitlock, who has been generating buzz this offseason. His strong start to last year was cut short by elbow surgery in May, but he’s expected to begin the season in the bullpen. If he regains form, he could quickly climb the hierarchy and emerge as a key late-inning option.

This is a bullpen to be wary of. Right now, it’s impossible to say for sure who will get the saves, and there’s a real chance no one reaches 20. That being said, if you take a gamble and hit on the right guy, there’s upside. Hendriks was elite before his injury, and both Slaten and Whitlock could be emerging arms. However, I would avoid drafting Chapman. I don’t see him holding the role for the entire season, he’s too inconsistent at this stage of his career, and it’s been too long since he served as a full-time closer.

White Sox: Honestly Don’t Know Right Now

The White Sox bullpen situation is essentially a "stay away." They set an MLB record for losses last season and aren’t in much better shape this year, meaning save opportunities will be scarce. As of now, Justin Anderson, James Karinchak, Fraser Ellard, and even Mike Clevinger are in the mix for the closer role.

If I had to pick one, I’d lean toward Karinchak, simply because he’s shown the ability to post a 40%+ strikeout rate in the past. But to be clear, this is a complete dart throw, and I wouldn’t draft any White Sox reliever at the moment. That said, in deep leagues, it’s worth keeping an eye on whether someone eventually secures the job.

Guardians: Emmanuel Clase

From the worst bullpen to arguably the best. Emmanuel Clase was one of the most valuable pitchers in rotisserie leagues last year and finished as the fourth-highest-scoring pitcher in standard points leagues. He’ll likely be the first reliever off the board in your fantasy draft, and it’s hard to argue against it.

Clase has locked down 42 or more saves in three straight seasons, posted a sub-1.40 ERA in three of the last four years, and has as much job security as any closer in baseball on a Cleveland team projected to be competitive. He’ll be my top-ranked closer, but I wouldn’t recommend reaching too high for him in drafts. While he’s elite, relievers only throw around 70 innings per year, and volatility always exists. It’s also unlikely he will repeat last year’s absurd 0.61 ERA, meaning another top-tier closer could theoretically outproduce him.

One minor drawback is his surprisingly modest career strikeout rate of 24.8%, which isn’t elite compared to other high-end closers. He’s as safe as they come, but even the best closers can have unexpected down years—just ask Edwin Díaz or Josh Hader. Well… everyone except Mariano Rivera, of course.

Tigers: Uncertain

Tigers manager A.J. Hinch liked to mix and match in his bullpen last year. Despite Jason Foley leading the team with 28 saves, he isn’t locked in as the closer for 2025, and it’s unlikely a clear-cut option will emerge.

Foley’s 18.4% strikeout rate is underwhelming for a closer, and he often struggles with command. While Beau Brieske and Will Vest impressed in the playoffs, neither seems likely to be handed the job outright. The Tigers also brought in veteran relievers Tommy Kahnle and John Brebbia this offseason, with some buzz that Kahnle could get a shot at closing. “Mr. Changeup” was effective last year, posting a 2.11 ERA with the Yankees.

A wildcard to watch is Alex Lange, who is set to start the season on the IL while recovering from a torn lat. He was Detroit’s closer in 2023 and (once healthy) shouldn’t be completely ruled out.

Between the lack of a clear closer, the possibility of a committee, and the absence of elite talent, this is a bullpen I’m staying away from in drafts.

Astros: Josh Hader

Despite a rough start and finish to his season, I’m not worried about Josh Hader. His stuff was as filthy as ever, his underlying metrics suggest he was unlucky, and he has rock-solid job security on a still-strong Houston team. This reinforces my earlier point when talking about Emmanuel Clase, since relievers pitch so few innings, strange things can happen.

Hader’s xERA last year was a full run lower than his actual 3.80 ERA, and he still maintained an elite strikeout rate of 37.7%, whiff rate of 40.5%, and chase rate of 33.4%. The biggest issue? Home runs. He gave up 15 long balls in 2024, compared to just three in 2023. Some might blame Houston’s ballpark, which is fair to an extent, but I see it more as a small-sample fluke. Back in 2019 with Milwaukee, he also allowed 15 homers, yet in the following two seasons, gave up just three each year.

Hader has elite job security, piles up strikeouts, and remains one of my top-tier closers heading into 2025.

Royals: Carlos Estevez, Lucas Erceg

This is an interesting situation. Lucas Erceg was excellent after being traded from Oakland, converting 11 of 13 save opportunities while striking out 31 batters with just three walks over 25 innings. He seemed poised to take over as the Royals’ closer heading into 2025 until the team signed Carlos Estévez to a two-year deal.

Estévez served as the Angels’ primary closer for two seasons before being traded to the Phillies midseason, where he also picked up some saves. The Royals have announced that he and Erceg will share save opportunities to start the season. However, the general expectation is that Estévez will get the first shot at closing, while Erceg will be used more as a “stopper” in high-leverage situations.

It’s frustrating because Erceg’s metrics are better than Estévez’s across the board, and I was excited to see him take on a full-time closer role. For drafts, I’d treat Estévez as a low-tier closer with shaky job security—if he struggles, Erceg could easily take over. Erceg himself is worth a late-round flyer, as he’ll provide solid ratios and strikeouts while you wait to see if he earns save chances.

Angels: Kenley Jansen

Kenley Jansen's surprise signing with the Angels likely stemmed from his desire for a guaranteed closer role. Currently 4th all-time in saves with 447 (just 31 behind Lee Smith), Jansen is focused on adding to his total. Though he’s far from his peak as one of the best closers in baseball with the Dodgers, he’s remained productive in his later years. Last season, he posted a solid 3.29 ERA, 1.061 WHIP, and an impressive 28.4% strikeout rate. However, with the Angels unlikely to contend, there's a strong chance Jansen could be traded midseason to a contender, where there’s no guarantee he’ll retain the closer role.

If Jansen is traded, Ben Joyce could step in as the new closer. Known for his blazing fastball, which reaches 105.5 MPH, Joyce also introduced a "splinker" pitch last year, posting 33 strikeouts and 11 walks over 31 innings after it's debut. His exciting upside makes him a player to watch, especially if Jansen struggles or is dealt.

Twins: Jhoan Duran

Jhoan Duran remains the clear closer in Minnesota but has taken a step back from his previous dominant form. He started last season with an oblique injury, which may have affected him more than expected. Despite his average fastball velocity dropping from 101.8 to 100.3 MPH, he still possesses elite velocity. The biggest difference from his rookie year in 2022 is his chase rate, which fell from 37.8% to 28% last year.

However, Duran remains effective. His high ground ball rate held steady at 61.7%, and he paired that with an elite 3.5% barrel rate to go along with a strong 32.9% whiff rate. These factors suggest his xERA of 2.76 (almost a full run lower than his actual 3.64 ERA), better reflects his true performance. He still has a firm grip on the closer role, and I expect him to return to a more dominant version of himself. At his current price, he’s a buy for me and I’m eager to draft him.

If Duran falters, Griffin Jax is an intriguing fallback. He posted 95 strikeouts to just 15 walks over 71 innings last season, making him a name to keep on your radar.

Yankees: Devin Williams

Newly acquired Devin Williams steps into the Yankees' clubhouse not only as their new closer but also as a trailblazer, marking a shift in the team's long-standing beard policy. Williams is one of the safest bets at the position and is typically the second reliever off the board in drafts—which is exactly where I have him. If some fantasy managers are hesitant due to his last outing against Pete Alonso, take advantage of their doubts.

Williams dealt with a back injury last year, but once healthy returned to his usual elite form. His "Airbender" changeup (which he throws over 40% of the time), is arguably the best in baseball. The only knock is his consistently high walk rate (11.8% career), but that’s more than offset by his dominant 39.4% strikeout rate, elite hard-hit suppression, and a career 1.83 ERA over five seasons. He’s a rock-solid option and has a strong chance to finish as the top fantasy reliever.

If anything happens to Williams, keep an eye on Luke Weaver. He was excellent down the stretch and in the playoffs for the Yankees and would become a high-end option if given the job.

Mariners: Andres Munoz

I’m high on Andrés Muñoz for 2025—he’s been consistently strong for three years and is now stepping into the full-time closer role. While his average fastball velocity sits at 98.1 MPH, he throws his slider more often, using it 47.1% of the time.

Muñoz has posted three straight years with an ERA under 3.00, and last year, flashed elite metrics: a 39.8% whiff rate, 33.2% chase rate, an average exit velocity of just 86.3 MPH, and a 54% ground ball rate. The only concern is that he dealt with lingering back and elbow soreness late last season. However, if healthy, he’s locked in as Seattle’s full-time closer and should be a strong fantasy option.

Rays: Pete Fairbanks

Pete Fairbanks enters the season as the Rays' primary closer, but I have some concerns. His 2024 campaign ended early due to a lat injury, (continuing a troubling trend that he has never thrown more than 45.1 innings in a season and is now 31 years old).

While Fairbanks has a solid profile, it’s not elite. Last year, he managed just 44 strikeouts over 45.1 innings, which is underwhelming for a closer. Durability is also a major question mark. On top of that, he plays for the Rays, a team that hasn’t had a reliever record 30+ saves since Alex Colomé in 2017. Tampa Bay is known for playing matchups, and with the team not projected to be a strong contender, it’s unlikely Fairbanks racks up elite save totals.

That said, he does have the job to start the year and has recorded 20+ saves in each of the past two seasons despite his injuries. He’s worth consideration, but not someone I’ll be actively targeting unless I completely punt saves or find myself in a situation where I have to take him.

If Fairbanks falters, keep an eye on Edwin Uceta. Uceta has bounced around the minors but seemed to figure things out last season. While he doesn’t have elite velocity (his fastball averaged just 94.2 MPH, slightly above league average) his elite command allowed him to post a stellar 30.8% K-BB rate.

Rangers: Chris Martin

For a team with playoff aspirations, the Rangers' bullpen is an unsteady and murky situation. They seem like a prime candidate to trade for a reliever at the deadline or even make a late-spring signing (like David Robertson), so keep that in mind before investing too heavily in this bullpen.

As things stand, Chris Martin appears to be the frontrunner for saves. The 38-year-old veteran isn’t the most exciting option, as his strikeout rates aren’t elite, but he’s just one season removed from posting a 1.05 ERA over 51.1 innings with Boston thanks to an elite walk rate and chase rate.

Other names to monitor include Robert Garcia, Marc Church, and Jon Gray, who may take on a bullpen role. None of them stand out as must-draft options, but they’re worth keeping an eye on.

Overall, Martin is a bottom-tier starting closer, and the entire Rangers bullpen feels like a situation primed for a shakeup at some point.

Blue Jays: Jeff Hoffman

Rounding out the AL, we have the Blue Jays. After three straight seasons of steady production from Jordan Romano in the closer role, Romano struggled last year, leaving Toronto in flux. In response, the Blue Jays signed Jeff Hoffman (one of the best relievers in baseball over the past two seasons) to a three-year deal, while Romano departed for the Phillies. Hoffman now steps in as the clear top save option on a contending team.

Last year, Hoffman recorded 89 strikeouts over 66.1 innings, relying heavily on his slider, which he throws more often than his fastball. That pitch helped him post a 35.3% whiff rate, a 33.5% strikeout rate, and a 34.6% chase rate, all elite numbers.

The only real concern with Hoffman is health, as he failed physicals with both the Braves and Orioles before ultimately signing with the Blue Jays. While failing a physical before a free-agent contract doesn’t necessarily mean a player is currently injured, it does raise red flags about long-term durability.

I like Hoffman a lot, but he does carry some injury risk. If he falters or gets hurt, Yimi García and Chad Green look like the top candidates to step into the closer role.

Relief pitching in fantasy baseball is an unpredictable but essential element of building a winning team. With the fluctuating nature of save opportunities, managerial decisions, and the unpredictability of injuries, it’s crucial to keep an eye on bullpen developments and the players vying for closing roles. Elite relievers have become increasingly valuable, and understanding the nuances of each team's bullpen situation will give you a distinct advantage come draft day. Stay proactive, monitor spring training performances, and be ready to make adjustments as the season unfolds, maximizing your chance for fantasy success.